mid-2011 intelligence update - how we got here and where are we going? -
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MID-2011 INTELLIGENCE UPDATE - How We Got Here and Where Are We Going? - . Geopolitical Risk is Back… . Geopolitical Update . Outline STRATFOR Method: Geopolitics + Intelligence = Forecasting Political Risk in 2011: EUROZONE CRISIS “ARAB SPRING” U.S. foreign policy post-OBL . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MID-2011 INTELLIGENCE UPDATE- How We Got Here and Where Are We Going? -
Geopolitical Risk is Back…
Geopolitical Update
• Outline
– STRATFOR Method: Geopolitics + Intelligence = Forecasting
– Political Risk in 2011:• EUROZONE CRISIS• “ARAB SPRING” • U.S. foreign policy post-OBL
STRATFOR
STRATFOR keeps you aware of…• What is important• What is NOT important.
Our methodology is:
GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE
STRATFOR Methodology
• Geopolitics: – The 20 Year Rule – Geography – Demographics
• Intelligence:– Old Methodologies– New Technologies
• Forecasting:– Annual + Decade Forecasts
Eurozone Crisis
• U.S. Hegemony;• U.S. Distraction in the Middle East; • Russian Resurgence in Eurasia;• Chinese Rise + Eventual Fall;• Germany’s Rise and Europe’s
Distraction.• Rising powers? Brazil, India, Turkey,
Mexico (?).
U.S. Hegemony• Geography facilitates capital
accumulation; • Lack of security competition; • Time/space/security to incubate free
market capitalism;• Post World War II: hegemony by default; • Bretton Woods;• U.S. Navy;
U.S. Hegemony
Geopolitical Threat #1: Persian Gulf • U.S. initiated destabilization; • Iran as geopolitical pivot; • Potential war with Iran; • Effects on oil prices + economy.
Energy Scenario 2:Persian Gulf
Conflict
-Any conflict will be initiatedby the United States-Israel cannot achieve its aims alone -Iran knows that a war would leave it devastated and initiating mining wouldcost Tehran its international position
Geopolitical Threat #2: Russian Resurgence
• Geopolitics of Russia;• Resurgence post
(2004) 2005; • Politics of energy
embargoes;• Budding German-
Russian relations;• Moscow’s interest:
reliable source of energy (believe it or not).
Geopolitical Threat #2: Russian Resurgence
Geopolitical Threat #3: China’s Rise/Fall
• Geopolitics of China;• History of Internal Discord;• Chinese Financial System and Beijing’s
Spending Spree;• The Inevitable Chinese Crash.
Geopolitical Threat #3: China’s Rise/Fall
Geopolitical Threat #4: Germany’s Rise
• Geopolitics of Germany;• European Union identity crisis;• NATO identity crisis; • German-Russian growing links.
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095
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Austria France Germany GreeceIreland Italy Netherlands SpainUnited States Euro area
Uni
t La
bor
Cost
Inde
x20
00 =
100
Rising Powers
• Brazil – searching for external focus;• India – searching for internal coherence; • Turkey – acting upon its internal/external
focus.
Geopolitics and Business
• Unknown Opportunities • Ignore the Rhetoric• Emerging Risks• Context • Non-Ideological
Example: Constraints of Geography
Through the prism of geography and power, geopolitics distinguishes the eternal from the
prolonged and the prolonged from the transitory. What it finds frequently runs
counter to common sense.
Risk can be overstated and understated.
STRATOF is your personal CIASTRATOF is your investment’s Offensive Left Tackle