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1 Korea Gas Corporation Perspectives of LNG Market Perspectives of LNG Market in North East Asia in North East Asia “Fourth Meeting of the Working Group on Energy Planning and Policy” Irkutsk, Russia Federation, 12-13 September 2007 2 . World LNG market . World LNG market

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Page 1: Microsoft PowerPoint - ROK-NaturalGas.ppt [Read-Only]

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Korea Gas Corporation

Perspectives of LNG Market Perspectives of LNG Market in North East Asia in North East Asia

“Fourth Meeting of the Working Group on Energy Planning and Policy”Irkutsk, Russia Federation, 12-13 September 2007

2

ⅠⅠ. World LNG market. World LNG market

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World Natural Gas consumption2,750bcm

World Natural Gas consumption2,750bcm

Trade movement (722bcm)PNG 533bcm, LNG 189bcm

Trade movement (722bcm)PNG 533bcm, LNG 189bcm

Top 3 of LNG importing CountryJAPAN : 76bcmKOREA : 31bcmSPAIN : 22bcm

Top 3 of LNG importing CountryJAPAN : 76bcmKOREA : 31bcmSPAIN : 22bcm

Trade flows worldwideTrade flows worldwide

Source : bp

4Source : IEA

LNG vs. Pipeline NaturalLNG vs. Pipeline Natural GasGas

6886

118

152

276296

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

MTPA

SouthAmerica

Europe

Africa

MiddleEast

NorthAmerica

Australia

Asia

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LNG Trade MovementLNG Trade Movement in 2004 in 2004

Asia-Pacific

North America

Europe

6

LNG Trade Movement in 2006LNG Trade Movement in 2006

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Supply and demand in AsiaSupply and demand in Asia--Pacific Basin Pacific Basin

- 2 0

- 1 0

1 0

2 0 20

01

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

M T P A

Uncommitted supply capacity = Supply Capacity - Export Contracts

Demand Shortage= Demand - Import Contracts

Asia Pacific Balance

unit : unit : mtpamtpa 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LNG LNG demand(ademand(a)) 92.4 99.8 107.7 116.3 125.5 135.5 144.6 154.4 164.8 175.9 187.7

Contracted (b)Contracted (b) 88.4 96.6 102.6 112.3 117.9 120.6 109.7 109.3 104.2 99.4 94.4

c=ac=a--bb 4.0 3.2 5.1 4.0 7.6 14.9 34.9 45.1 60.6 76.5 93.3

Uncommitted (d)Uncommitted (d) 5.6 5.4 3.3 -5.1 10.1 16.8 36.6 37.6 43.6 48.4 53.4

Balance (Balance (dd--cc)) 1.6 2.2 -1.8 -9.1 2.5 1.8 1.7 -7.5 -17.0 -28.1 -39.9

Source : Wood Mackenzie

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From From ““BuyerBuyer’’s markets market”” to to ““SellerSeller’’s markets market””

Source : POTEN & PARTNER

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9SOURCE : LNG Global, Deutsch Bank

North America R/P=9.7

LNG Demand of USA in 2015

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North American LNG TerminalsNorth American LNG Terminals

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Source : GIIGNL

World LNG Spot tradingWorld LNG Spot trading

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ⅡⅡ. . EnergyEnergy DemandDemand in NEA & LNGin NEA & LNG

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13,390(100%)

1,0081,008(7.5%)(7.5%)

38

960

10

Country Size(1 million ha)

3.6

5.55.5

2.7

9.9

4.0

GDP Grow Rate(%)

125,843

(100%)

30,09030,090

(23.9%)(23.9%)

10,424

14,221

5,445

Trading(100 million $)

1,4841,484(22.8%)(22.8%)

7,5567,556(16.9%)(16.9%)

SUBSUB--

TOTALTOTAL

44,645(100%)

4,534

2,234

788

GDP(1 billion $)

6,500(100%)

128

1,308

48

Population(1 million)

JAPAN

WORLD

CHINA

KOREA

SourceSource : World Bank, 2006: World Bank, 2006USUS Census Bureau, 2007Census Bureau, 2007World Trade Organization, 2007 World Trade Organization, 2007

Leading Economic Indicators Leading Economic Indicators

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Primary Energy Demand Primary Energy Demand

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006

The amount of primary energy consumption in Korea, China, Japan accounts for about 22% of the world consumption.

[World] [N-E Asia]

USA 2.3 bil TOE

Russia 700 mil TOE

10.5 bilTOE

2.3 bilTOE

EU 1.7 bil TOE

Europe & Russia28%

N-America27%

ME5%

S-America5%

Africa3%

Asia-Pacific

32%

Japan23%

Korea10%

China67%

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KOREAKOREA

Source : 1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20062. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006, APERC

2020yr2020yr2005yr2005yr

(220 mil TOE)(220 mil TOE) (310 mil TOE)(310 mil TOE)

47%

13%

24%

15%1%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro

42%

20%

18%

19%1%

16

Source : 1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20062. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006, APERC

CHINACHINA

2020yr2020yr2005yr2005yr

(1.6 bil TOE)(1.6 bil TOE) (2.3 bil TOE)(2.3 bil TOE)

22%

6%

67%

3% 2%21%

3%

69%

1% 6%Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro

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Source : 1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20062. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006, APERC

JAPANJAPAN

2020yr2020yr2005yr2005yr

(520 mil TOE)(520 mil TOE) (570 mil TOE)(570 mil TOE)

46%

14%

23%

13% 4%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro

46%

17%

19%

17% 1%

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Shtokman LNGBaltic LNG

Sakhalin 2 LNG

<Russia<Russia’’s role in NEA Energy Market>s role in NEA Energy Market>

Only Russia can swap LNG with PNG (Pipeline Natural Gas) except Norway in the future

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ⅢⅢ. . For 2008 and BeyondFor 2008 and Beyond

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LNG consumption in 2010

12.0mtpa

0.8 mtpa

25.6mtpa

62.2mtpa

50.0mtpa

7.1 mtpa

31.3mtpa

67.8 mtpa

LNG consumption in 20066.2mtpa

10.5 mtpa

0.6 mtpa

11.3mtpa

< Tsunami Scenario in 2010 >< Tsunami Scenario in 2010 >

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The Best ScenarioThe Best Scenario

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The Worst ScenarioThe Worst Scenario

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< For 2008 and beyond >< For 2008 and beyond >

LNG consumption in 2010

12.0mtpa

0.8 mtpa

25.6mtpa

62.2mtpa

50.0mtpa

7.1 mtpa

31.3mtpa

67.8 mtpa

LNG consumption in 20066.2mtpa

10.5 mtpa

0.6 mtpa

11.3mtpa

Establishing “The Natural Gas Trading Hub” in North East Asia

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Thank you