How to Tame a Gorilla Program

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How to Tame a Gorilla Program Critical Path 2.0 case study at SanDisk

How to Tame a Gorilla Program Critical Path 2.0 case study at SanDisk

ProjectPro Corp. www.ProjectProCorp.com

President ProjectPro Corp.

Specializes in Microsoft Project and Project Server

Presenter Intro: Eric Uyttewaal, PMP Presenter Intro: Eric Uyttewaal, PMP

BS, Engineering

MS, Business Administration

Author “Forecast Scheduling with

Microsoft Project 2010” &

“Dynamic Scheduling with Microsoft

Office Project 2003”

Formerly: Executive Director at IIL as

developer and manager of the Orange,

Blue, Black Belt certification curriculum

Email: EricU@ProjectProCorp.com

Tel: 613-692-7778

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What Situation Are You In? What Situation Are You In?

Single, Isolated Project

Master- or Subproject

No Resource-loading

A

B

Resources & Workload-leveled

C

D

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The Challenge of Scheduling Programs The Challenge of Scheduling Programs

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Drowning in the Data? Drowning in the Data?

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The SanDisk Situation: As-Is and As-Needed The SanDisk Situation: As-Is and As-Needed

As-Is:

– “System” is not linked to show interaction between schedules

– Manual syncing of dates

– Schedules are often suspected of being out-of-date

– Resource availability drives schedules

– “System” is labor-intensive

– Critical Path 1.0 technology

As-Needed:

– See complete CP across resource-leveled projects in program

– Find that CP in an easy way: Critical Path 2.0 technology

– Optimize the CP

– Critical Path 2.0 technology

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How to Tame a Gorilla Program

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The Program Was Considered to Be “In

Control” When (Verbatim)

The Program Was Considered to Be “In

Control” When (Verbatim)

The program schedule has at least ten major milestones (ten sub networks)

All subproject schedules are dynamic models that forecast the subprojects

– “Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Project 2010 ” checklist

We have a detailed Critical Path to the next two major milestones

We have 90% confidence level (simulation) the next 2 major milestones would be completed on time

We have a high-level Critical Path (deliverables only) for entire program that forecasts on-time completion

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1 of 2

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The Program Was Considered to Be “In

Control” When (Visually)

The Program Was Considered to Be “In

Control” When (Visually) 2 of 2

?? % on time????

90% probability on time

90% probability on time

90% probability on time

90% probability on time

90% probability on time

90% probability on time

90% probability on time

90% probability on time

90% on time!!!

Our Reasons to Divide the Program into

Multiple Subprojects

Our Reasons to Divide the Program into

Multiple Subprojects

Delegate to a scheduler closer to the work

More than 2,000 tasks in the program

Multiple people need to update the master schedule

People are in different countries, in different time zones and speak different languages

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Consequences of Multiple Subproject

Schedules

Consequences of Multiple Subproject

Schedules

Multiple schedulers have to adhere to scheduling guidelines for the program

Dependencies between schedules and a Critical Path that runs across schedules

Sharing resources across subprojects, perhaps even across programs

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Why Re-integrating the Subproject Schedules? Why Re-integrating the Subproject Schedules?

Integrated Master Schedule

Subprojects with cross-project

dependencies

1. Identify and optimize the Critical Path into next milestone(s) 2. Determine appropriate buffers (deadlines) for handoffs 3. Report accurate forecasts on the program as a whole

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Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)

and Program Critical Path

Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)

and Program Critical Path

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Subproject A Subproject B Subproject C

Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)

How to Tame a Gorilla Program

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Options for Managing the

Dependencies between Subprojects

Options for Managing the

Dependencies between Subprojects

1. Do Not Model Them - Coordinate dates manually in regular meetings! - no Critical Path

2. Model them using Deliverables feature - no Critical Path

3. Model them using Links-between-Projects feature - Links lost, duplicated or slow

4. Model them using PPMS add-in (ProjectPro Program Management Solution) + Critical Path, links protected

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PPMS Example Program “Write Book” PPMS Example Program “Write Book”

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PPMS: Identifying the Handoffs PPMS: Identifying the Handoffs

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Provider Project: ‘Publishing’ Receiver Project: ‘Authoring’

Outline Publisher hands ‘Outline’ to Authors

Task Name Handoff

Outline ‘Outline’ received from publisher by Authors

Task Name Handoff

PPMS Excel Dashboard - Lists all

Handoffs (Links between Subprojects)

PPMS Excel Dashboard - Lists all

Handoffs (Links between Subprojects)

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Dashboard Handoffs Program ‘Write Book’

Demo PPMS Demo PPMS

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How the IMS is Generated How the IMS is Generated

Create project files at function level

Identify all cross-project milestones in .MPP’s

Copy cross-project dependencies to .XLS file

Create cross-project links with PPMS

Level workloads at the program level

Identify Resource-Critical Path with CCP

Optimize Resource-Critical Path

Simulate to get high-confidence date (project buffer)

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How to Tame a Gorilla Program

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Dealing with Shared Resources Dealing with Shared Resources

Model with Generic Resources first!

Optimize the IMS:

1. Adding idle resources to the most-Critical Path(s)

2. Moving resources from non-Critical to Critical Paths

3. Continue until resourcing is (perfectly) balanced

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How Leveling Affects the Critical Path 1.0 How Leveling Affects the Critical Path 1.0

Harry 9 D

Harry 6 D

write X

write Y

Harry 9 D

leveling

Harry 9 D

Harry 6 D Harry 6 D

write X

write Y

Before leveling:

After leveling:

Resource Dependencies Differ from

Logical Dependencies

Resource Dependencies Differ from

Logical Dependencies

A logical dependency imposes the sequence:

Harry

Harry

Write X

Write Y

Harry

Harry

Write X

Write Y

Write

Print

OR

A resource dependency is a relationship between two activities where the sequence can be switched. The relationship is the sharing of the same resource:

Source: Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Project 2010

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Hunting for the Critical Path in an IMS Hunting for the Critical Path in an IMS

Demo CCP in IMS

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IMS Critical Path into Next Major Milestone Workload-Leveled

IMS Critical Path into Next Major Milestone Workload-Leveled Critical Path Handoffs (PPMS) Critical Path Handoffs (PPMS)

How to Tame a Gorilla Program

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Critical Handoff Milestones Critical Handoff Milestones

65 handoffs, but only 4 critical handoffs:

Critical Path End Date Critical Path End Date

Accumulated Leveling Delay = 72 days !!

Name Pre-leveled

Finish

Post-leveled

Finish

System Qual Complete, Rev. A 10 Jul 13 20 Sep 13

Critical Path Analysis Critical Path Analysis

MS Project 1 CCP 2

Unleveled Critical Path Yes Yes

Workload-Leveled Critical Path No Yes

Elapsed durations (ed) No Yes

Multiple Calendars No Yes

Logical Dependencies Yes Yes

Resource Dependencies No Yes

Most-Critical Path No Yes

Longest-Path No Yes

1 Critical Path 1.0 compliant 2 Critical Path 2.0 compliant

Tools Used Tools Used

Tool Supplier

Microsoft Project 2010 Microsoft Corp.

PPMS – to Link & Unlink schedules ProjectPro Corp.

CCP – for Critical Path analysis ProjectPro Corp.

Monte Carlo Simulation Al Rusnak

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Roadmap for the Pilot Program Roadmap for the Pilot Program

Forecast Scheduling and Forecasting Programs training

Review schedules to make sure guidelines are followed

ProjectPro provides software licenses:

– ProjectPro Program Management Solution (PPMS)

– Complete Critical Paths (CCP)

Create the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)

Identify/optimize Critical Path of next major milestones

Do this for four consecutive weeks (=CSF)

Support from ProjectPro during the entire program

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Program Schedule Process Program Schedule Process

1. Generate Project Schedules

2. Add handoff Milestones and Codes

3. Update Project Schedules and submit to repository

4. Integrate Project Schedules to Program (PPMS)

5. Find Resource-Critical Path and Optimize (CCP)

6. Des-integrate: standalone Project Schedules (PPMS)

7. Update Handoff Milestone Dates

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How to Tame a Gorilla Program

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Determining the High-Confidence Date for

the Program

Determining the High-Confidence Date for

the Program

Task Duration Estimates:

– 50% Confidence durations

– 90% Confidence durations

MS Project Forecasts Finish Date (FF)

– Based on 50% confidence durations

High-Confidence Forecast Finish Date (HCFF)

– Including 90% confidence durations in Monte Carlo simulation

– HCFF - FF = Program Buffer

Only 1 buffer = Program Buffer

Bin Frequency Cumulative %

10/25/13 0 0.00% 10/29/13 2 0.20% 11/02/13 1 0.30% 11/06/13 1 0.40% 11/10/13 4 0.80% 11/14/13 9 1.70% 11/18/13 7 2.40% 11/22/13 35 5.90% 11/26/13 26 8.50% 11/30/13 61 14.60% 12/04/13 48 19.40% 12/08/13 76 27.00% 12/12/13 72 34.20% 12/16/13 59 40.10% 12/20/13 136 53.70% 12/24/13 65 60.20% 12/28/13 129 73.10% 01/01/14 58 78.90% 01/05/14 59 84.80% 01/09/14 50 89.80% 01/13/14 25 92.30% 01/17/14 34 95.70% 01/21/14 14 97.10% 01/25/14 12 98.30% 01/29/14 3 98.60% 02/02/14 4 99.00% 02/06/14 4 99.40% 02/10/14 0 99.40% 02/14/14 2 99.60% 02/18/14 2 99.80% 02/22/14 0 99.80% 02/26/14 0 99.80% 03/02/14 1 99.90% 03/06/14 0 99.90% 03/10/14 0 99.90% 03/14/14 0 99.90% 03/18/14 0 99.90% 03/22/14 1 100.00% 03/26/14 0 100.00% 03/30/14 0 100.00%

More 0 100.00%

Time Simulation Results:

Statistical Analysis - Resource leveled

Time Simulation Results:

Statistical Analysis - Resource leveled

25166445 System Qual Complete, Rev A

Mean 12/19/13

Standard Error .5496

Median 12/19/13

Mode 01/06/14

Standard Deviation 17.3814

Sample Variance 302.1142

Kurtosis .9349

Skewness 0.273146532

Range 145.3097222

Minimum 10/25/13

Maximum 03/19/14

Sum 41627042.5

Count 1000

Largest(1) 03/19/14

Smallest(1) 10/25/13

Confidence Level(95.0%) 1.0786

Time Simulation Results:

Frequency and Cumulative Histogram

Time Simulation Results:

Frequency and Cumulative Histogram

System Qual Complete, Rev. A Unleveled, forecast: 10 Jul 2013 Leveled, forecast: 20 Sep 2013 High Confidence: 09 Jan 2014

Program Duration: 542 Calendar Days Leveling Delay: +72 Calendar Days Program Buffer: +85 Work Days Critical Handoffs 4 out of 65

Time Simulation Results – Overview

Proof of Concept Schedules

Time Simulation Results – Overview

Proof of Concept Schedules

Differences between Single Project Schedule

and Subproject Schedule (that is part of IMS)

Differences between Single Project Schedule

and Subproject Schedule (that is part of IMS)

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Single Project Subproject

• Complete Network Logic

• (Often) one Critical Path

• No external dependencies

• Multiple ending points in network

• Multiple Critical Paths

• Many external dependencies ---

Differences Single Project versus IMS schedule Differences Single Project versus IMS schedule

Single Project Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)

Network logic

Project schedule has one ending point in its network logic

Subproject schedules have multiple ending points, but IMS has one.

Cross-project dependencies

None Many

Critical Paths of interest

One Multiple, often ten or more

Critical activities

Each schedule has critical activities

Some subproject schedules have program-critical activities, others have none

Resource dependencies

Few

Many (for product-development programs in first-to-market companies)

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How to Tame a Gorilla Program

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Situations and the Tools You Need Situations and the Tools You Need

Single, Isolated Project

Master with Subprojects

No Resources Critical Path 1.0/2.0 MS Project CCP recommended

Critical Path 1.0/2.0 MS Project + PPMS + CCP

Resources & Workload-leveled

Critical Path 2.0 MS Project + CCP

Critical Path 2.0 MS Project + PPMS + CCP

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CCP = Complete Critical Paths from ProjectProCorp.com PPMS = ProjectPro Program Management Solution from ProjectProCorp.com

Program Forecast Report: Buffer Consumption Program Forecast Report: Buffer Consumption

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Key Benefits of This Approach for SanDisk Key Benefits of This Approach for SanDisk

Provides complete Critical Paths in workload-leveled programs:

– Real visibility on the dynamics in the program

– Shows the criticality of the resources (functions)

Allows to optimize resource needs and allocations

Allows to recover from slippages (what-if scenarios!)

Keeps all schedules standalone:

– schedules open fast, working offline, easy updating

Allows project-specific resource pools or shared pool

Provides high-confidence forecasts for product release dates

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Integrated Master Schedule: Summary Integrated Master Schedule: Summary

Multiple subproject files can be linked

The real Resource-Critical Path can be identified

Schedule delays can be decreased or resolved

A 90%-probable commit-date can be calculated at the program level

The program can be forecasted continuously!

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Our Recommendations Our Recommendations

1. Achieve agreement among stakeholders on when program is considered “in control.”

2. The more subproject schedules, the better

3. Protect unity of data at all cost!

4. Address differences in scheduling styles

5. Create autonomous subproject teams

6. Make resource names unique across the program

7. Use generic resources first to optimize the program as a whole (Time-to-Market!)

8. Use Critical Path 2.0 and compliant tools (CCP + PPMS)!

9. Standardize the WBS for sub schedules (see next slide)

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Standardized Levels of the WBS Standardized Levels of the WBS

Level 0 – Subprojects (=major component)

– Nouns (without verbs): e.g., ASIC, Firmware, Parts, Test Software, Reliability, Tested Parts

Level 1 – Subcomponents

– Nouns (without verbs): e.g., for ASIC: Subsystems, Top Design

Level 2 – Function

– Nouns (without verbs): e.g., for ASIC: Logic Design, Physical Design, FPGA Design, Documentation, Verification, Test Preparation, Package, Foundry, and Design Validation

Level 3 – Tangible Deliverables

– Nouns (without verbs): e.g., for ASIC: Preliminary, Trial and Final RTL; Preliminary, Trial and Final Synthesis and Layout; RTL, Gate Level Verification and multiple FPGA releases.

Lowest Level – Activities

– Use verbs (present/imperative tense) © ProjectPro Corp.