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BCBSM Pay-for-Performance
Measure Technical Document (Version 2.0)
Developed by
Michigan Value Collaborative
July 2017
P4P Measure Methodology Report 2 July 2017
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
P4P Measure Methodology Report 3 July 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES 5
LIST OF FIGURES 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
INTRODUCTION 8
BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................................................................................... 8
CHARGE FOR THE MICHIGAN VALUE COLLABORATIVE COORDINATING CENTER ...................................................................................... 8
MEASURE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE .............................................................................................................................................. 8
GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR MEASURE DEVELOPMENT .......................................................................................................................... 9
DESCRIPTION OF MVC DATA 10
DEFINING THE EPISODE OF CARE ................................................................................................................................................. 10
Claims Attribution Process ............................................................................................................................................. 10
Standard Inclusions…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………10
Site of Service ................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Transfer Cases ................................................................................................................................................................ 11
Policy for inclusion of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and cancer patients .................................................................. 11
Standard Exclusions……………………………………………………………………………….………………………………………………………….....…..11
PRICE STANDARDIZATION ......................................................................................................................................................... 12
Inpatient Facility Claims ................................................................................................................................................. 12
Post- Acute Care Claims…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……..13
Skilled Nursing Facility (SNF) Claims…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…….……..13
Other Facility Claims ...................................................................................................................................................... 13
Professional Claims ........................................................................................................................................................ 14
Limitations ..................................................................................................................................................................... 14
RISK-ADJUSTMENT .................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Background .................................................................................................................................................................... 15
What is risk-adjustment? ............................................................................................................................................... 15
How does MVC calculate risk-adjusted episode payments? .......................................................................................... 15
How does MVC calculate expected payments? ............................................................................................................. 15
Required Variables ......................................................................................................................................................... 15
Non-required variables .................................................................................................................................................. 15
Condition Specific Risk Adjustment Variables (CSRAV) .................................................................................................. 16
DESCRIPTION OF P4P MEASURE 17
OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................................................. 17
DATA SOURCES ....................................................................................................................................................................... 17
EPISODE DURATION ................................................................................................................................................................. 18
SELECTION OF SERVICE LINES ..................................................................................................................................................... 19
QUALITY REQUIREMENTS .......................................................................................................................................................... 22
STRUCTURE AND SCORING SYSTEM.............................................................................................................................................. 23
IMPROVEMENT TARGET METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………………………………………………………………....……………………26
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MVC COHORTS………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...27
SUPPORT FOR HOSPITALS .......................................................................................................................................................... 28
ANTICIPATING UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ................................................................................................................................ 28
APPENDICES 30
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: BCBSM Pay-for-Performance Program ............................................................................................ 8
Table 2: Eligible service lines and minimum annual case requirements .................................................... 20
Table 3: P4P measure structure and scoring system .................................................................................. 24
Table 4: Potential unintended consequences and proposed interventions ............................................... 29
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Cohorts Developed for the Service Lines of: Joint, Pneumonia, CHF, & Colectomy…………………………. 49
Figure 2: AMI Cohort Designation…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 49
Figure 3: CABG Cohort Designation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 50
Figure 4: Spine Cohort Designation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 50
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Michigan Value Collaborative (MVC) is a Collaborative Quality Initiative (CQI) funded by Blue Cross Blue
Shield of Michigan’s (BCBSM) Value Partnerships program. MVC aims to help Michigan hospitals achieve the
best possible patient outcomes at the lowest reasonable cost by adhering to the Value Partnerships
philosophy of using high quality data to drive collaborative quality improvement.
BCBSM included a new Pay-for-Performance (P4P) measure derived from MVC data in their 2016 Hospital P4P
Program. In developing and recommending a measure to BCBSM, the MVC coordinating center has been
guided by the following core principles:
1. The measure will reflect the BCBSM Value Partnerships philosophy of using high quality data to drive
collaborative quality improvement.
2. The measure will be fair, simple, and transparent.
3. The measure will align with existing BCBSM and CMS hospital quality measures when possible and be
consistent with Value Partnerships CQI principles.
4. The measure will encourage examination and use of MVC data to drive value improvement and
reward those efforts.
Outlined below is a summary of the proposed P4P measure.
Measure: Risk adjusted, price standardized total episode cost
Data sources: BCBSM PPO plus Medicare fee-for-service claims
Episode duration: Index hospitalization plus 30 days post-discharge
Number of service lines: Voluntary selection of two service lines from a pool of seven
Eligible service line pool: Acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, pneumonia, joint
replacement (hip and knee replacement episodes combined), colectomy
(non-cancer), coronary artery bypass graft, spine surgery1
Minimum case requirement: The minimum case volume must be twenty cases (including both BCBSM
PPO and Medicare) for each service line over the most recently available
twelve-month period
Baseline year: Hospital service line total episode cost for a twelve-month period prior to
the start of the program year
1 On the MVC registry website, this service line is labeled “Other Spine”.
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Performance year: Hospital service line total episode costs for the most recently available
twelve-month period at the end of the program year
Program year: Twelve-month period for which BCBSM P4P payments will commence
Quality requirement: No points for this performance measure if a hospital, adjusted for case
volume, is ranked below the 10th percentile in the performance year for
condition-specific in-hospital mortality or related readmissions.
Confidence intervals will be used to ensure that these hospitals are true
statistical outliers
Scoring system: A three-year active scoring system is outlined below. The final 2018 and
2019 scoring systems will be determined based on ongoing empirical
analyses and feedback from hospital partners. The two service lines
selected by hospitals for quality improvement action plans and risk
adjustment feedback in 2016 will be the same two services lines that will
be measured for performance in 2018 and 2019. Refer to Appendix I for
more details.
Program year 2016: Structured preparatory measures
Scoring based on site visit and MVC meeting participation; providing
formal feedback on the P4P measure and risk adjustment; and developing
service line improvement action plans
Program year 2017: Transition year
No scoring will be earned in this year; however, performance in 2017 will
be captured in subsequent P4P program years.
Program year 2018 and 2019: Performance measure
Scoring based on internal year-over-year improvement or achievement
relative to MVC cohort group
Collaboration goals: Bonus points for all hospitals working on the same service line if those
hospitals achieve a ≥ 5% service line cost improvement2
2 The maximum points attainable is ten even for those hospitals earning a bonus point.
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INTRODUCTION
Background
Since 2000, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan has included a pay-for-performance program in its
hospital contracts. This P4P program is currently structured as a potential 5% bonus payment added to
baseline annual contracted rates, and it is measured during a January 1 through December 31
performance period. Across all 80 Michigan hospitals currently eligible to participate in the P4P
program, the annual bonus pool is valued at approximately $200 million.
From 2006 through 2013, the P4P program comprised two domains: quality and cost efficiency. In
2014, BCBSM modified the structure to include five distinct measures, as outlined in Table 1. These
new measures provide further emphasis on the value of care delivered in the state, and they are
intended to incentivize high quality, low cost, coordinated care.
Charge for the Michigan Value Collaborative Coordinating Center
The Michigan Value Collaborative is a quality improvement (QI) collaborative funded by BCBSM.
Established in 2013, MVC aims to help Michigan hospitals achieve the best possible patient outcomes
at the lowest reasonable cost by providing hospital leaders with claims-based utilization and episode
cost data to drive local quality improvement activities.
In recognition of MVC’s emerging role as a convener of utilization data and infrastructure for sharing
best practices for improving episode cost-efficiency, BCBSM implement a new P4P measure based on
MVC data in the 2016 Hospital Pay-for-Performance program. The requested measure will be weighted
at 10% of the total bonus pool and will be a freestanding measure, not part of the CQI performance
domain.
Measure development timeline
The request for the MVC coordinating center to develop a new measure was delivered on July 16,
2015. A proposal was due to BCBSM for discussion at its P4P Measurement Workgroup meeting on
September 8, 2015. There was a specific request for feedback from participating MVC hospitals prior
to submission of the proposed measure.
Table 1: BCBSM Pay-for-Performance Program
2014-2015 measures
Collaborative Quality Initiatives (CQI) performance 40%
Population-based per-member/per-month (PMPM) costs 20%
Hospital inpatient cost/case efficiency 20%
30-day readmissions 10%
Admission/discharge/transfer (ADT) notification system participation 10%
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Guiding principles for measure development
MVC is one of BCBSM’s Value Partnerships Program Collaborative Quality Initiatives. The CQIs have long
followed the Value Partnerships philosophy of using high quality data to drive collaborative quality
improvement. The measure development team, comprised of members of the MVC Coordinating Center
and several external advisors, was guided by this philosophy throughout the process (Appendix A).
Specifically, the measure development group adhered to the following core principles:
1. The measure will reflect the BCBSM Value Partnerships philosophy of using high quality data to drive
collaborative quality improvement.
2. The measure will be fair, simple, and transparent.
3. The measure will align with existing BCBSM and CMS hospital quality measures when possible and
be consistent with Value Partnerships CQI principles.
4. The measure will encourage examination and use of MVC data to drive value improvement and
reward those efforts.
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DESCRIPTION OF MVC DATA
Defining the episode of care
Claims Attribution Process
The Michigan Value Collaborative (MVC) defines each service line episode using ICD 9/10 procedure
and diagnosis codes or CPT codes. The transition to ICD-10 coding was successful using CMS’ General
Equivalence Mappings (GEMs). With each data update, we look at different data trends and have
observed no unexpected deviations. Certain exclusion criteria are applied to ensure patient groups are
as homogeneous as possible and thus comparable across hospitals in contrast to using diagnosis
related groups (DRG), CPT or revenue codes to define each episode. The MVC validation project of
2015 identified an important opportunity to update the process by which post-discharge claims are
attributed to index admissions and thus included in a 30 or 90 day episode window.
For each claim in the post discharge period, the first and second Dx code of that claim is examined
against an episode-specific document listing the Dx codes that are considered related to that episode.
Post discharge claims are considered related to the index admission if the first or second Dx code listed
on the claim is considered related to the episode type.
The MVC validation project identified that there were Dx codes in the episode-specific document that
were currently considered unrelated to the episode type, but should be considered related. This
finding triggered a comprehensive review of each episode-specific document to examine the Dx codes
listed as related or unrelated to the episode.
Each episode-specific document was updated based on a multi-round review by clinical content
experts and MVC Coordinating Center staff. Disagreements were discussed as a group, consensus was
reached, and the final episode-specific documents were approved and transmitted to ArborMetrix for
processing.
Standard Inclusions
These standard inclusions (Appendix B) are based on complications as defined by CMS for their
complication measures, CMS’ Serious Reportable Events, American College of Surgeons National
Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP), and clinical experts3456. Claims within 90 days with
the following diagnosis codes should be considered related to the index hospitalization for all
episodes.
3 Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan. 2016 Hospital Pay-for-Performance Program Peer Groups 1-4. April 2016. 4 Michigan Value Collaborative. Hospital P4P Survey. May 2016. 5 2015 CMS Medicare Severity Diagnosis-Related Groups (MS-DRGS), relative weighting factors and geometric, and arithmetic mean length of stay (Table 5). 6 2014 American Hospital Association survey database.
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Site of Service
Consistent with CMS methodology, any facility claim originating from one of the below sites of service,
or any professional claim associated with outpatient rehab, will be considered related to the index
admission. It will be included in the 90 day episode cost and utilization calculations (see MVC Claims
Categorization Rules document). This site of service relationship supersedes the Dx codes described
above.
Facility claim SNF
HH
IP Rehab
OP Rehab
Transfer Cases
MVC attributes transfer patients to the hospital where the index admission began. If a patient is
transferred from the originating hospital before an MVC episode has been triggered, then the patient
is attributed to the receiving hospital. Transfer cases represent a small percentage of overall cases,
but since they represent real patients, inclusion in the MVC analytics ensures this population’s
outcomes have the ability to be measured and improved as part of overall quality improvement.
Policy for inclusion of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and cancer patients
MVC has chosen to include end-stage renal disease patients and most cancer patients in our episode
cost calculations. These conditions are included in the risk adjustment model as candidate variables.
When those variables are found to significantly impact costs, they become part of the final models.
Since potential high costs from these conditions are accounted for by the risk-adjustment, we do not
exclude them. A detailed description of the MVC risk-adjustment model is discussed in a later section
of this document.
Standard Exclusions
Chemotherapy is excluded using the following ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes.
Professional claims OP Rehab
ICD 9 DX CC ICD9 CODE DESCRIPTION V580 45 RADIOTHERAPY ENCOUNTER
V581 45 CHEMOTHERAPY ENCOUNTER (End 2005)
V5811 45 ANTINEOPLASTIC CHEMO ENC (Begin 2005)
V5812 45 IMMUNOTHERAPY ENCOUNTER (Begin 2005)
V661 45 RADIOTHERAPY CONVALESCEN
V662 45 CHEMOTHERAPY CONVALESCEN
V671 45 RADIOTHERAPY FOLLOW-UP
V672 45 CHEMOTHERAPY FOLLOW-UP
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MVC applies an algorithm to identify clinically related readmissions that occur within 30 and 90 days post-discharge. For example, claims data with primary and secondary diagnosis codes for chemotherapy are classified as an unrelated readmission and excluded from readmission rate calculations.
Price Standardization
ArborMetrix has developed a process to standardize medical claim payments for the purpose of analyzing hospital level variation in utilization. The goal of our approach is to eliminate the extent to which price variations are a result of contractual differences by assigning the average amount for a given service for each instance of the service in the data. This does not account for geographic variation that may be caused by cost structure differences and would tend to overstate the actual prices in rural or low-wage areas and understate actual prices in urban and high-wage areas.
This particular process was developed for the joint analysis of BlueCross BlueShield of Michigan and Michigan Medicare data and likely contains some idiosyncrasies specific to BCBSM and Medicare data. The overarching goal is to standardize the prices of both the BlueCross and Medicare claims to be priced the average amount for that service in Medicare. Reconciling the occasionally different reimbursement practices of BCBCM and Medicare is an ongoing challenge and this process is subject to further refinement. However, the basic practices should remain consistent.
Our price standardization process divides up the data into three parts: facility claims are comprised of 1) inpatient facility claims and 2) other facility claims, while 3) professional claims are treated as one group. This document will describe price standardization for each group separately.
Inpatient Facility Claims
We calculate two payment amounts for inpatient claims: DRG base payment and outlier payment.
DRG Adjustment
ICD 10 CCS Description
Z510 45 Encounter for
antineoplastic radiation
therapy
Z5111 45 Encounter for
antineoplastic
chemotherapy
Z5112 45 Encounter for
antineoplastic
immunotherapy
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One complication in pricing data over multiple years is that the DRG definitions (and relative weights) change over time. To account for this, we used 3rd party DRG grouping software. This takes information from five data elements (patient sex, patient age, patient discharge disposition, ICD9 diagnoses, ICD9 procedures) and defines DRGs for each inpatient claim using definitions from whatever year the user chooses. For the development, we took all BCBSM PPO and all Medicare claims and assign them DRGs as if those claims had been processed in 2012. Over time, the DRG mapping should be updated.
DRG Base Payment Inpatient claims are assigned payments by DRG. Each DRG is associated with the average price for that DRG in the Medicare data.
Outlier Payment Outlier payments are made separately from the base payment to providers to compensate for particularly complicated patients (i.e., when the level of treatment greatly exceeds the expected average for a given DRG’s relative weight). As a general rule, these outlier payments are triggered when the claim’s length of stay is significantly longer than the average length of stay for its DRG.
As with the base payment, our outlier payment calculation uses information from TRICARE to standardize patients. The TRICARE DRG schedule includes a national long stay threshold. Inpatient claims associated with a length of stay that exceed the national long stay threshold will be flagged as outliers. The outlier payment is calculated as $2,500 per day over the length of stay threshold.
If LOS>LOS ThresholdDRG, then Outlier Payment = (LOS-LOS ThresholdDRG)*$2,500
Otherwise, Outlier Payment = 0
Post- Acute Care Claims
Skilled Nursing Facility (SNF) Claims
For CMS patients, SNF payments are calculated based on length of stay and the Resource Utilization
Groups (RUG) reported in the individual SNF claims. Daily RUG rates range from $180 to $743. For
BCBSM patients, SNF payments are calculated based on length of stay and a standard daily payment
rate of $479 per day that was calculated based on three independent analyses.
Other Facility Claims
These constitute the wide variety of facility claims that are not inpatient care. When possible, we use the CPT code associated with the claim. In cases where the CPT code is not available, we use the revenue code on the claim line. Each CPT or revenue code is associated with a quantity. The total payments for each code are summed and then divided by the sum of quantities to create a code rate for each CPT and revenue code. Prior to the rate calculations, payments for Other Facility Claims were trended at 3% per year up to $2012.
Standardized payment = Code Rate * Quantity
where Code Rate = Total payment for code / Total code quantity and quantity is capped at 0.95*max code quantity
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Professional Claims
This process is similar to the one used for Other Facility Claims. The only difference is that all the claims have CPT codes. Ideally, this would be the simplest of the pricing standardization procedures. Each professional claim is associated with a CPT code, quantity, and unit. Each quantity*unit payment would be the same for a given CPT code. However, our version of the BCBSM data does not include unit amounts. Thus we have claims associated with a quantity, but no unit for that quantity. For most claims this is not a problem because the same unit is used for all claims (surgery, for example). However, for some pharmaceuticals the unit is not always constant and simply taking the average payment and dividing by average quantity can skew the rate calculation. To get around this we cap the top allowed quantity for both rate calculation and payment calculation purposes at 95% of the top quantity, yielding a simple formula:
Standardized payment = CPT Rate * Quantity
where CPT Rate = Total payment for CPT/ Total CPT quantity and quantity is capped at 0.95*max CPT quantity
This process also incorporates CPT modifiers codes when calculating CPT rates. The CPT rates are calculated separately for CPTs with certain modifier codes7 to account for the fact that reimbursement differs based on the use of these codes.
Limitations
One challenge is when Medicare does not reimburse certain codes we see in the BCBSM data. When that occurs, we rely on commercial claims data to which we have access.
The pending addition of Medicaid data may have its own pricing peculiarities that need to be explored and accounted for.
Lack of units in the professional data significantly limits our confidence in our pricing of certain high quantity services (e.g., prescription drugs). In the future, we should make sure that any data used on the website include all the fields necessary for our price-standardization process.
The outlier payment calculation could be improved. The current $2,500 per-day rate functions well for most cases, but for extremely long lengths of stay (>1 year), the methodology likely overstates the actual outlier payment. MVC received a one-time feed of outlier indicators from BCBSM. ArborMetrix analyzed that file as was to show that reasonable overlap with what MVC were calling outlier and what BCBSM had as an outlier. However, it was difficult to rigorously compare the pricing for those because BCBSM could only supply the outlier payments in broad categories, and not the specific amounts.
We only use the most common CPT modifiers as part of our rate schedule creation. Some evidence from users is that surgical assistant modifiers are not being accounted for in all instances. We may need to review which modifiers are being used and which CPT modifier fields (currently only the first modifier) are being included when calculating professional claim rate schedules.
7 The following are the modifier codes currently included during rate schedule creation: AS,80,81,82,26,25,TC,GP,NU,59,RR,AM,RH,76,SH,51,RT,LT,AA,GC,HN,AT,U1,QK,SQ,50,HH,QX,QW,33,SA,AI,30,NH,57,GO,24,GN,58,KX,SL,Q8,79,U2,91,KS,NJ,JN,AJ,QY,AH,PH,A1,PT,77,SW,U5,JR,RJ,52,HR,QS,GR,RG,Q9,EC
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Risk-Adjustment
Background
As discussed in the November 2015 collaborative meeting, the Coordinating Center performed
extensive research on different risk adjustment approaches. Given its findings, MVC recommended
transitioning to CMS’ Condition Categories for identifying and accounting for comorbidities in the
calculation of episode payments and other MVC metrics. The MVC risk adjustment models now
employ the 79 Hierarchical Condition Categories that CMS has empirically shown to be predictive of
expenditures for Medicare beneficiaries. Our methodology utilizes all 25 Dx codes reported on a
Medicare and BCBS claim.
What is risk-adjustment?
Hospitals treat a variety of patients, and some patients are costlier than others. Hospitals that treat a
disproportionate number of costly patients may be unfairly classified as “high cost hospitals” simply
because of the type of patients that they treat. Risk-adjustment is a statistical method that “levels the
playing field” by accounting for differences in case-mix.
How does MVC calculate risk-adjusted episode payments?
MVC performs risk-adjustment using observed/expected (O/E) ratios. The numerator in this ratio is the
aggregate of the all observed payments for a particular hospital. The denominator is the aggregate of
the all expected payments. This ratio is multiplied by the statewide expected mean payment to arrive
at the “risk-adjusted payment” for that hospital.
How does MVC calculate expected payments?
MVC calculates expected payments for each condition (e.g., AMI, pneumonia, CABG) and each
component (e.g., total episode payments, readmission payments) separately. Condition and
component-specific expected payments are based on a statistical model that uses a combination of
required variables and non-required variables.
Required variables
The following required variables are always included in the final model: age, gender, history of prior
high spending, end-stage renal disease.
Non-required variables
Non-required variables include 79 comorbidities based on hierarchical condition categories (Appendix
C), and condition specific risk adjusters (Appendix D).
Non-required variables are selected using a model specification technique that occurs in two steps:
1. All candidate variables are individually tested using a univariate regression model to see if they
predict payment. Non-required variables with a p-value < 0.10 are retained.
2. All of the retained variables are included in a multivariable regression model and variables with a p
< 0.05 are used for the final model.
The final variables for all conditions are listed Appendix E.
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Condition Specific Risk Adjustment Variables (CSRAV)
MVC incorporates several condition-specific variables into our risk-adjustment model. CSRAVs have
been suggested by participating hospitals and clinicians. For each CSRAV that is suggested, MVC
evaluates the appropriateness of including the variable by following the four principles below:
Principle 1: All CSRAVs will be considered as a “candidate” for the risk-adjustment model. In other
words, any CSRAVs may be excluded in the final model if they are not found to be statistically
significant.
Principle 2: For surgical conditions, treatment decisions (e.g., laparoscopic vs open) are typically not
considered CSRAVs.
Principle 3: For all conditions, we will consider certain diagnosis codes as a CSRAV:
Cancer diagnosis
Reoperation diagnosis
Principle 4: Variables that represent small variations of a disease process should not be considered a
CSRAV. However, these variables can be grouped into broad categories:
Simple case
Complex case
Examples
Variable Category Appropriate risk-adjustment variable?
Lap vs Open for Colectomy Treatment decision (rarely both) No
Cancer for Colectomy Severity of illness Yes
Dialysis for AMI Treatment decision or complication No
Emergency intubation for AMI Treatment decision or complication No
GI bleed for colectomy Severity of illness Yes
Re-operative CABG Severity of illness Yes
Cardiac surgery for AMI Severity of illness Yes*
Trach for pneumonia Treatment decision or complication No *In select instances, a treatment decision strongly reflects severity of illness
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DESCRIPTION OF P4P MEASURE
Overview
Description: The proposed efficiency measure is price-standardized, risk-adjusted 30 day episode
costs.
Rationale: The selection of total episode payments for two selected service lines reflects the centrality
of this measure to the work of MVC. This measure is also immediately available for hospitals in reports
from the MVC registry.
Other considerations: The selection of total episode costs, as opposed to one or more component
costs (e.g., readmissions or post-acute care), is consistent with MVC’s efforts to develop and maintain
a quality improvement focus across the continuum of care settings.
Alignment: In Appendix F, we describe key characteristics of several value-based incentive programs
from CMS that were reviewed during the measure development process. A condition-specific 30-day
total episode spending aligns directly with the format of condition-specific episode-based cost
measures being considered by CMS as supplements to the MSPB metric in the Hospital Value-Based
Purchasing (HVBP) program.
Hospital Feedback: There was no specific feedback on total episode versus component costs.
Final Decision: MVC will measure total episode payments.
Data sources
Description: Based on ongoing analyses and feedback from hospital partners, it is recommended the
measure use BCBSM PPO and Medicare fee-for-service claims.
Discussion: As of July 2017, data available in MVC reports will include BCBSM PPO claims for January
2011 through June 2016, and Michigan Medicare fee-for-service claims for January 2011 through
March 2016. We receive quarterly feeds of updated Medicare data that will allow MVC reports to
include more synchronous and timely data from both BCBSM PPO and Medicare. We anticipate
incorporating data fourth quarter 2016 BCBSM PPO and Medicare claims into the MVC registry by end
of 2017.
The consideration of using BCBSM PPO and Medicare claims versus only BCBSM PPO claims hinges on
the tradeoff between an increased number of episodes for each hospital and the reality that hospitals
cannot currently use the MVC registry to “drill down” into patient-level details of the Medicare cases
(due to Medicare data privacy requirements). If the measure includes Medicare data, there will likely
be more internal record review required for hospitals to understand the root causes of high-cost
episodes among Medicare beneficiaries.
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Including both BCBSM PPO and Medicare claims in the measure increases the number of episodes
available and will enable the measure to better focus on two services lines. The inclusion of more
admissions in the calculation of episode costs will also ensure greater reliability of cost estimates. This
assumes, however, that our anticipated timeline for receipt of updated Medicare claims comes to
fruition.
Including BCBSM PPO claims alone in the measure would require that the measure become an
aggregate of the seven eligible service lines. However, hospitals could “drill down” into patient level
details for all patients covered by the measure. Feedback from participating hospitals and CQI partners
has consistently indicated that condition or service-line specific payment measures are more
actionable from a quality improvement perspective, so an aggregate measure could limit quality
improvement.
Alignment: Using both BCBSM and Medicare claims in the measure would provide greater alignment
between MVC activities and related metrics from CMS, including the condition-specific episode
measures developed by CMS to supplement MSPB in the efficiency domain of the HVBP program and
the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CCJR) project (Appendix F). A composite spending
measure would be more analogous to CMS’ Medicare Spending per Beneficiary (MSPB) that reflects
spending across multiple Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs).
Hospital Feedback: From a survey sent to all participating MVC hospitals, 54/66, or 81.8%, preferred
BCBSM PPO plus Medicare data.
Comments in support for BCBSM and Medicare data:
- Alignment with current CMS activities and goals
- Drill down will reveal opportunities for both populations
- Statistically meaningful data
Comments in support for BCBSM alone
- Lack of detail and timeliness with CMS data
- Better alignment with other BCBSM CQIs
- Better ability to partner with post-care entities such as physician offices when data is relevant
- Root causes may be determined more easily (with drill-down), less internal record review
Final Decision: MVC will use BCBSM PPO plus Medicare Fee-for-Service claims data.
Episode duration
Description: The episode duration will include the index hospital stay plus 30 days post-discharge.
Rationale: The main decision point was the selection of a 30 versus 90 day episode. Ultimately,
selection of a proposed measure based on 30 day episodes was influenced by several considerations
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including the following: 1) feedback from MVC hospitals has consistently suggested that a 30 day
window is more clinically relevant and actionable for most of the MVC service lines; and 2) the 30 day
episode better aligns with several concurrent initiatives from CMS and BCBSM, allowing hospitals to
focus their improvement efforts on this time window.
Other considerations: In addition to the rationale provided above, internal empirical analyses and
review of claims submitted from days 31-90 after hospital admissions suggest declining face validity
with respect to attribution of services to the index hospital stay. We felt that inclusion of distantly
related claims as part of a longer 90 day episode could undermine “buy-in” with respect to the
proposed measure.
Alignment: As described above, the selection and specification of 30-day total episode spending aligns
well with measures in Medicare’s HVBP program and the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program
(HRRP). In addition, this episode duration is consistent with the 30-day readmission measure already
included in the BCBSM P4P program, thereby allowing hospitals, clinicians, and post-acute care
providers participating in MVC to maintain a focus on care processes and transitions during this
discrete time period.
Although the recently announced Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Program (CCJR) from
CMS involves a 90 day episode, there was widespread agreement among the development team that a
30 day episode is more consistent with the overarching principles for measure development.
Moreover, only two Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Michigan (Flint and Saginaw) are participating in
the CCJR, we did not feel that the different episode durations would be a major concern for most
hospitals in the state.
Hospital Feedback: There was no specific feedback on episode duration.
Final Decision: MVC will use a 30 day measure.
Selection of service lines
Description: If the final measure includes BCBSM PPO and Medicare claims, hospitals will be required
to select two service lines from a pool of seven eligible diagnoses and procedures (Table 2). Hospitals
will select two service lines in 2016 for quality improvement action plans and will be evaluated on the
same two service lines during the 2018 and 2019 performance periods. If the final measure includes
BCBSM PPO claims alone, then the seven eligible services lines below will be combined into one
aggregate measure.
The seven service lines below were selected because they met the following criteria:
1. The service line was included in the 2015 MVC data validation project
2. The service line represents an area of focus for existing BCBSM clinical CQI programs
P4P Measure Methodology Report 20 July 2017
Table 2: Eligible service lines and minimum annual case requirements
Service Line
Numbers of episodes
reviewed in 2015 MVC data
validation project
Minimum annual
case
requirement*
Percent of 2012
cases from
BCBSM PPO
patients
Acute myocardial infarction 218 20 14%
Congestive heart failure 53 20 2%
Pneumonia 71 20 6%
Hip and knee replacement 956 20 29%
Colectomy (non-cancer) 76 20 36%
Coronary artery bypass graft 76 20 27%
Spine surgery^ 91 20 36%
*Minimum annual case requirement includes both Medicare FFS and BCBSM PPO patients. A hospital’s condition-
specific case volume will be measured during the most recently available 12-month period.
^Labeled as “Other Spine” on MVC registry
Rationale:
Number of service lines Our measure development group and external advisors reached a consensus that two service lines is a
reasonable initial number for hospitals to work toward both achievement and improvement targets. A
single service line might not sufficiently encourage hospitals to pursue crosscutting interventions and
infrastructural changes aimed at improving efficiency. On the other hand, if the proposed measure
involves too many service lines, hospitals may be overwhelmed and could have difficulty deciding
where and how to focus limited resources.
Selected service lines
The selection of eligible service lines reflects the dual goals of 1) maximizing a hospital’s choice in
terms of where to focus its efforts, and 2) alignment of MVC measures with existing cost and quality
improvement initiatives from CMS and BCBSM. To this end, we first considered all service lines that are
already part of a similar CMS initiative [i.e., HVBP, HRRP, and CCJR, which together cover acute
myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF), pneumonia, and joint replacement]. We
next considered clinical service lines that represent areas of focus for existing BCBSM clinical CQI
programs. From this initial larger roster, we then selected for final inclusion only those service lines
that were also included in the 2015 MVC Data Validation project.
Data Validation Project
As part of the 2015 data validation project, we asked all MVC hospitals to submit information on
utilization of relevant services (e.g., post-acute care, readmissions) during and after an index admission
based on review of local medical records. We then compared the submitted information to data in the
MVC registry based on BCBSM claims. All 63 MVC hospitals participated in the data validation, and this
P4P Measure Methodology Report 21 July 2017
project examined the claims classification algorithms for eleven service lines.8 This process was
completed to ensure that the MVC Coordinating Center and participating hospitals had an opportunity
for transparent examination, and subsequent refinement, of the claims classification algorithms for the
included service lines. Detailed results from the validation project, and consequent modifications to
MVC methods, was shared individually with hospitals during fall 2015 and with the entire collaborative
at the November 2015 meeting. We anticipate that other service lines will become eligible for the MVC
P4P measure as we extend the data validation process to more diagnoses and procedures in the
future.
Minimum case requirements
We selected the minimum episode volume requirements based on several empirical analyses. First, we
calculated the total episode volume for each MVC hospital with each service line. Second, we
calculated the year-to-year reliability of our payment measure for all service lines. We then tested the
reliability of the condition-specific measure across three years (2010-2012). Ultimately, we selected
minimum case thresholds that simultaneously maximize the reliability of the episode cost metric and
the number of eligible hospitals for each service line. Appendix G provides additional details around
these calculations.
Other considerations: We considered many service line options before deciding on the approach
described above. For example, we considered basing the proposed P4P measure on two standard high-
volume service lines (i.e., pneumonia and AMI) for all hospitals. We also considered asking hospitals to
select from more restricted pools (e.g., only service lines overlapping with CMS initiatives). However,
the MVC development team and external advisors felt that such approaches were too restrictive,
especially for hospitals that already have existing efficiency improvement initiatives.
We also considered using statistical methods to improve the reliability of the proposed measure for
hospitals with small case volumes. Using this approach, episode costs for hospitals with a smaller
number of eligible cases would be “shrunk to the mean” to reduce the effect of random variation due
to small sample sizes. While our working group acknowledged that this approach is used by CMS for
public reporting of outcome measures on Hospital Compare, we felt that this strategy might also blunt
the year-over-year improvement for some hospitals (i.e., small hospitals) and thus make it difficult for
low volume hospitals to demonstrate high performance.
Alignment: The eligible service lines align with many of the conditions that CMS includes in its value-
based incentive programs (Appendix F). For example, CMS recently developed 30-day episode
payment measures for AMI, CHF, and pneumonia, as well as the CCJR program for episode-based
bundled payments for hip and knee replacement. A requirement for minimum case thresholds is also
used in the HVBP and MSPB programs.
8 At the time of the data validation project there were only 63 participating hospitals; however, there are currently 75 member hospitals.
P4P Measure Methodology Report 22 July 2017
Hospital Feedback: From a survey sent to all participating MVC hospitals, 41/66, or 62.1% of hospitals,
preferred a selection of two service lines from a pool of seven. Nine hospitals selected a performance
measure based on selection of two service lines and use of BCBSM data alone for the P4P measure.
These choices are mutually exclusive, but 6/9, or 66.7% of hospitals say the selection of two service
lines is more important to them than using BCBSM data alone.
Comments in support for selection of two service lines:
- Difficult to find opportunities for improvement that span all service lines
- More specific, actionable data
- Desire to be evaluated based on specific initiatives in problem areas; aggregate would “dilute”
efforts
- Hard to make meaningful changes in 1-2 years for all service lines
- Can allocate resources to service lines in greatest need
- Suggestion that hospitals should be able to select ANY service line that meets case volume criteria
Comments in support for aggregate measure:
- Alignment with CMS and BCBSM metrics
- Greater flexibility to manage cost
- Smaller hospitals forced to choose service lines with adequate volume; low volume makes episode
costs less reliable
Final Decision: MVC will measure performance based the hospital’s voluntary selection of two service
lines from the pool of seven.
Quality requirements
Description: In our proposed measure, hospitals will not be eligible for a bonus if they are ranked in
the bottom 10th percentile in the performance year for condition-specific, risk-adjusted in-hospital
mortality or related readmissions. Statistical adjustments will be made for hospitals ranked in the
bottom 10th percentile if their case volumes are too low to allow for a reliable estimate. Accordingly,
we will utilize confidence intervals to ensure that these hospitals are true statistical outliers. This
approach is aligned with the method used by CMS for public reporting of outcomes on Hospital
Compare. We recognize that future analyses may lead the 10th percentile benchmark to be shifted to
other levels and/or help us decide whether multiple years of data should be considered for calculation
of this quality requirement. We plan to work towards the eventual replacement of percentile-based
quality thresholds with criterion-based quality thresholds.
Rationale: It was the consensus of our measure development team that the MVC episode cost
measure should be linked with a required minimum quality standard. The group felt it would be
inconsistent with MVC and BCBSM principles to reward hospitals that are low cost, but also potentially
lower quality. We selected condition-specific mortality and related readmissions because these
P4P Measure Methodology Report 23 July 2017
outcomes can be measured from claims data, are consistent with quality measures already used by
CMS and BCBSM, and are endorsed by the National Quality Forum.
Other considerations: We reviewed several approaches to defining a quality minimum for the
proposed MVC measure. In particular, we considered linking the MVC measure with quality measures
submitted by the BCBSM clinical CQIs. However, this approach would be difficult to implement since
some Michigan hospitals are not currently participating in the clinical CQIs. In the future, we would like
to incorporate CQI-specific outcomes measures as part of the required quality standard whenever
possible.
Alignment: The quality standards that we selected are used by CMS for several programs including
HVBP, the Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier, and the Medicare Shared Savings Program for
ACOs. In addition, the CCJR program requires hospitals to meet three quality metrics to be eligible for
bonus payments. These quality metrics are based on hospital level risk-standardized complication
rates for joint replacement, 30-day all-cause readmission rates and the Hospital Consumer Assessment
of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) survey.
Hospital Feedback: Only 3/66, or 4.5%, of the MVC hospitals surveyed indicated no quality threshold
should be applied. Four hospitals suggested a penalty in place of forgoing the bonus for those
hospitals not meeting the quality threshold. One hospital, however, recommended raising the
threshold. While most surveyed agreed with the proposed standards, a few hospitals suggested
adding the following:
− Complication rate
− Provision of preventative health services
− Correlation to performance improvement plans
− Hospital acquired infections and conditions
− Other CQI clinical measures
− Length of Stay
− Physician follow up post-discharge
− Avoidable emergency department utilization
Final Decision: MVC will impose a quality requirement whereby a hospital’s adjusted case volume must
be above the 10th percentile in the performance year for the condition-specific in-hospital mortality or
related readmissions to receive performance points.
Structure and scoring system
The new P4P measure was developed according to the principles outlined earlier in this document, and
aims to be as simple, fair, and transparent as possible. The proposed structure and scoring system for
this measure is depicted in Table 3 and Appendix H.
P4P Measure Methodology Report 24 July 2017
We proposed that program year 2016 be a formal preparatory year that encourages MVC hospitals to
become more familiar with the data, organize resources to enact change, and create infrastructure
and care processes that enable success in 2017 and beyond. In this year, two service lines will be
selected by hospitals prior to submission of the QI action plan. Those two service lines will remain the
target service lines for the hospital in 2018 and 2019.
Hospital performance was initially set to be measured in program year 2017; however, based on
feedback from the P4P Measurement Workgroup, scoring was delayed until 2018. to allow hospitals
more time to prepare. The proposed metrics for program years 2018 and 2019 aim to provide
Michigan hospitals with an opportunity to be measured fairly and to be rewarded for high
performance and collaboration.
In program years 2018 and 2019, each hospital’s service line-specific total episode cost for a twelve-
month period two years prior to the performance year would serve as its own improvement baseline.
Table 3: P4P measure structure and scoring system
2016 2017 2018 and 2019
Measure theme
Deep engagement with MVC data
Transition Year Year over year improvement
Absolute achievement
Measure scoring
2 pts - Participate in site
visit with MVC 1 pt - Provide feedback
on risk adjustments
1 pt - Provide feedback on P4P measure
1 pt - Attend MVC meetings
5 pts - Create specific QI action plans for 2017
No Score
Baseline: Hospital service line total episode costs for the most recently available 12-month period 2018/2019 scoring:^ 1 pt = baseline mean 2 pts = baseline mean -
0.05 * SD based target
3 pts = baseline mean - 0.10 * SD based target
4 pts = baseline mean - 0.15 * SD based target
5 pts = baseline mean - 0.20 * SD based target
Baseline: MVC cohort group service line total episode costs for the most recently available 12-month period 2018/2019 scoring:^ 50th %tile = 1 pt 60th %tile = 2 pts 70th %tile = 3 pts 80th %tile = 4 pts 90th %tile = 5 pts
Collaboration goal
+1 pt per service line if ≥ 5% improvement among
hospitals choosing the specific service line
^ = scoring for each service line assumes use of both BCBSM PPO and Medicare claims SD = standard deviation
or
P4P Measure Methodology Report 25 July 2017
Appendix I provides additional details regarding the proposed method for calculating baseline
performance data. During these years, improvement would be measured against the baseline. This
calculation will be performed separately for each service line. As illustrated in Table 3, the
improvement target for each hospital will be scaled based on case volume to account for differences in
the reliability of MVC cost estimates across hospitals.
In addition to measuring year-over-year improvement, hospitals may earn bonus payments based on
their achievement. The MVC cohort group service line mean total episode cost from the twelve-month
period two years prior to the performance year would serve as the achievement baseline for
calculating percentile-based achievement targets. For 2018 and 2019 payments, hospitals would
receive the higher of their improvement or achievement points. Performance points for improvement
or achievement will only be awarded to hospitals that also meet the quality requirements.
Collaboration goal: The MVC measure development team felt that it was important to follow closely
the Value Partnership’s philosophy of using high quality data to drive collaborative quality
improvement. In order to foster collaboration at the local, regional, and state levels, a collaboration
goal is also built into the scoring system for 2018 and 2019 (Table 3). Among hospitals selecting the
same service line (if applicable), each hospital will receive one additional bonus point if that group of
hospitals achieves a 5% or greater improvement in total episode costs compared to their collective
average episode cost during the baseline period. However, a hospital would not receive a collaboration
bonus if its own performance declined from one year to the next.
Appendix H provides a more detailed example of how the proposed scoring system would be applied
in all three performance periods.
Hospital Feedback: There were many comments on the survey distributed to MVC hospitals about the
scoring system:
- Year-over-year improvement should be used. Will encourage collaboration, data transparency, and
sharing of best practices
- Outlier high costs should be removed
- MVC patient population should be homogenous (ESRD should be excluded, and potentially cancer
patients as well)
- Clear and concise date range to base improvement targets against
- Does not recognize or award organizations that are already high performers
- Percent improvement expected over 2 years seems unreasonable
Comments regarding how continued collaboration can be incentivized within MVC:
- Bonus points for hospitals sharing cost reduction strategies
- Incentivize attending MVC events
- Reward year-over-year improvements
- Incentive points for low performing hospitals to partner with successful “mentoring hospital”
- Grant opportunities for specific themes
P4P Measure Methodology Report 26 July 2017
Final Decision: In 2016, hospitals will earn points based on engagement and contributions to MVC.
For 2017, hospitals will be measured based on year-over-year improvement, and in 2018, hospitals will
be scored based on improvement or achievement, whichever yields the highest score.
Improvement target methodology
Description: The improvement targets for each hospital is measured by the service line total episode
payments for the baseline year. To earn one P4P point, a hospital must have equal or lower total
episode costs during the performance year compared to the baseline year for the measured service
line. Subsequent bonus points will be calculated based on the ratio of each individual hospital’s total
episode payment to MVC total episode payment multiplied by a proportion of the MVC standard
deviation.
Baseline Mean – x% * MVC Winsorized Standard Deviation where Baseline Mean = Hospital Mean Cost/MVC Mean Cost
and x% represents .05 through .20
The intent of the formula is to account for each hospital’s baseline mean costs and the service line-
specific variability. The MVC mean and standard deviation will include all cases, and the MVC standard
deviation will be winsorized at the 99th percentile. The utility of winsorization is to mitigate the impact
of extreme outlier cases. The percentage reduction of the MVC standard deviation required to earn
P4P points was determined based on extensive internal modeling and comparisons to provider
performance in the BPCI Model 2 program.
Other considerations: We considered alternatively applying winsorization to both the hospital cost
ratio and standard deviation as proposed by members of the P4P Measurement Workgroup. In this
scenario, the MVC average cost (the denominator) will be winsorized for all hospitals; however, not all
hospitals will have their individual costs (the numerator) winsorized. The individual hospital cost will
only be winsorized if its case(s) contributed to the top 1% of MVC episode costs and the hospital has at
least 100 cases. As a result, the majority of hospitals will have a slightly higher benchmark (ranging
from approximately $1-$200 greater). After applying the P4P reduction targets (5-20%), the cost
difference is minimized ($0-$20 on average, per patient) between options one and two but still greater
compared to only winsorizing the MVC standard deviation. Hospitals with cases in the top 1%,
however, will benefit more noticeably from winsorizing the cost ratio.
Rationale: The decision to winsorize at the 99th percentile was based on empirical analysis showing
that many of these top 1 percent of cases appear to be outliers. Cases winsorized at the 95th
percentile, however, were not extreme cases. In reviewing other incentive-based programs,
winsorizing at the 99th percentile is consistent with CMS’ MSBP methodology.
As part of its original proposal, the MVC measure development team did not recommend winsorizing
the hospital cost ratio primarily because it presents a bias to low volume hospitals. If each hospital’s
costs were winsorized, the hospital must have at least 100 cases during the baseline and performance
P4P Measure Methodology Report 27 July 2017
periods to be impacted. For five of the seven service lines more than half of the hospitals have less
than 100 cases in a twelve-month period.
Hospital Feedback: Both options were shared with BCBSM’s P4P Measurement Workgroup, and only
one hospital expressed a preference, which was to only winsorize the standard deviation.
Final Decision: Each hospital’s P4P baseline mean will be computed as a ratio of the hospital’s average
cost to the MVC average cost and multiplied by the winsorized MVC standard deviation. Cases will be
winsorized at the 99th percentile.
MVC cohorts
Description: Beginning in 2018, hospitals may earn year-over-year achievement points as compared to
their respective cohorts. The MVC cohort methodology comprises two years of data that has
empirically demonstrated stability in the groupings. In general, each MVC cohort is comprised of
structurally similar hospitals identified by case mix index (CMI), bed size and teaching status.
Methodology: CMI is defined based on the hospital’s index admissions for the P4P service lines for
Medicare FFS and BCBSM PPO patients from July 1, 2013 through June 30, 2015. For the purposes of
classification, episodes without a Medicare Severity-Diagnosis Related Group (MS-DRG) associated
with the index admission were excluded. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) MS-
DRG relative weights are applied to all inpatient admissions to calculate the mean relative CMI weight
for each hospital. Using the calculated mean relative CMI weights, hospitals are sorted from highest to
lowest to establish a median threshold. The median CMI was 1.67; therefore, all hospitals with a CMI
of 1.67 or greater will be classified as either Cohort 1 or 2. Hospitals with a low CMI (below 1.67) will
be grouped as either Cohort 3 or 4. CMI is used as a primary grouper to account for the differences in
the complexity of DRGs observed at each hospital.
The cohorts are further refined based on bed size and teaching status. The presence of 300 or more
beds and teaching status are used to distinguish between Cohorts 1 and 2. A hospital must meet both
criteria to be categorized as Cohort 1. The presence of 100 beds or more and teaching status are used
to differentiate between Cohorts 3 and 4. Unlike distinguishing between Cohorts 1 and 2, a hospital
only needs to meet one of these criteria to be classified as Cohort 3 to ensure balance in the grouping
dispersion. See Appendix J for the cohort flow chart and distribution.
Rationale: The purpose of the MVC cohort groups is to provide for a more equitable and effective
comparison of each hospital’s performance.
Hospital Feedback: Comments provided by BCBSM’s P4P Measurement Workgroup on the original
cohort structure was to develop service line specific cohort groups for Spine, AMI and CABG. The
Workgroup believed a greater amount of variability with respect to cost is found within these
conditions due to hospital structural characteristics. Therefore, a single cohort for across all service
lines would not adequately capture these variances.
P4P Measure Methodology Report 28 July 2017
Final Decision: Separate cohort groups were created for Spine, AMI and CABG. See Appendix J for
greater detail on how each cohort is structured. The remaining service lines (Joint Replacement,
Pneumonia, CHF and Colectomy) will share the same grouping based on CMI, bed size and teaching
status.
Support for hospitals
Two documents were made available to hospitals to support their participation in 2016. The first
provided hospitals with a summary of the baseline costs for their two selected service lines. The
document displayed component cost breakdowns similar to those provided on the MVC registry.
The second document was a template for a specific quality improvement action plan. The template will
help hospital leaders undertake a structured assessment of opportunities for improvement and
provide a framework for identifying and deploying resources necessary to achieve episode cost
improvements for the selected service lines. The ideas and strategies outlined in these templates will
also serve as a foundation and framework for collaborative learning and best practice sharing at MVC
meetings.
Each year, the MVC Coordinating Center will also provide partner hospitals with an updated hospital
P4P report. The P4P report will identify hospital baseline costs for the relevant performance year. This
document outlines hospital-specific episode payment reduction targets for eligible service lines in that
performance year to help hospitals identify what is needed to achieve successive P4P points. All data is
adjusted, and a hospital must have a minimum of 20 episodes in a service line for it to be displayed in
the report.
The MVC Coordinating Center will also host a series of virtual workgroups based on input from its
hospital partners. The primary goal of these workgroups is to provide hospital leaders with a highly
accessible platform to share best practices and challenges facing hospitals throughout the state of
Michigan. The ideas and strategies outlined in these discussions will serve as a foundation and
framework for collaborative learning and best practice sharing at MVC meetings. The MVC
Coordinating Center will also continue its work to improve the utility of the MVC data registry website
and host semiannual meetings to prove a venue for the sharing of best practices and additional
insights.
Anticipating unintended consequences
Despite best intentions, there are possible unintended consequences that can result from efforts and
metrics aimed at improving quality and reducing costs in complicated health care settings. The MVC
development group and external advisors considered possible unintended outcomes that could ensue
from the structure of this proposed P4P measure. These discussions also focused on potential
interventions that could be applied to minimize the risk of such adverse outcomes.
P4P Measure Methodology Report 29 July 2017
Several potential unintended consequences, and proposed interventions intended to protect against
such outcomes, are outlined in
Table 4.
Table 4: Potential unintended consequences and proposed interventions
Possible unintended consequence Proposed intervention(s)
Incentivizing competition
Initial focus on internal improvement and participation; include “collaboration goal” to encourage statewide collaboration and reward statewide improvement
Rewarding low quality hospitals Include quality minimums that must be met to be eligible for performance bonus
Rewarding cost improvements that result from inappropriate reduction in services provided
Include quality minimums that must be met to be eligible for performance points; possible future inclusion of CQI-based quality measures
Rise in number of low-cost episodes driven by changes in admission thresholds
Monitoring year-to-year changes in hospital-level case mix index for selected service lines
Hospitals not responding to P4P measure because bonus payment is out of balance with efforts required to achieve improvements or opportunity costs associated with improvement efforts
Ongoing analyses evaluating balance between bonus amount vs. reduction in costs
Focus on costs incurred outside of the hospital to the exclusion of improvements in hospital-based services
Include index hospitalization costs and readmissions in the P4P measure
Hospitals not responding to P4P measure because of lack of additional “shared savings”
Implement a group collaboration bonus for achieving state-wide improvement goals
P4P Measure Methodology Report 30 July 2017
Appendices
Appendix A: Measure Development Team
Name Position
Michigan Value Collaborative Coordinating Center
Jim Dupree, MD, MPH Director
Scott Regenbogen, MD, MPH Co-Director
Chad Ellimoottil, MD, MS Program Associate, Analytics
Kristyn Vermeesch, MPP Project Manager
John Syrjamaki, MPH Associate Project Manager/Senior Analyst
Edward Norton, PhD Program Economist
External advisors
Andrew Ryan, PhD Associate Professor, University of Michigan School of Public Health
Ellen Ward, MHSA Manager, BCBSM Value Partnerships Program
John Ayanian, MD, MPP Director, University of Michigan Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation
Anup Das PhD candidate, University of Michigan School of Public Health
P4P Measure Methodology Report 31 July 2017
Appendix B: Standard Inclusions
Sepsis/Infection
00845 03841 04102 0417 6868
0090 03842 04103 04183 6869
0380 03843 04104 04184 78552
03810 03844 04105 04185 78559
03811 03849 04109 04189 7907
03812 0388 04110 0419 99591
03819 0389 04119 4210 99592
0382 0390 0412 4211 99593
0383 04100 0414 5670 99594
03840 04101 0416 56739
Urinary Tract Infection (UTI)
5909 5950 5959 5990
Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI)
41000 41021 41050 41071 4110
41001 41030 41051 41080 4111
41010 41031 41060 41081 41181
41011 41040 41061 41090 41189
41020 41041 41070 41091 42292
Stroke + Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA)
43300 43321 43390 43411 4352
43301 43330 43391 43490 4353
43310 43331 43400 43491 4358
43311 43380 43401 4350 4359
43320 43381 43410 4351 436
P4P Measure Methodology Report 32 July 2017
Pneumonia
4658 4808 48231 48281 4831
4659 4809 48232 48282 4838
46619 481 48239 48283 4848
4800 4820 48240 48284 485
4801 4821 48241 48289 486
4802 4822 48242 4829 4870
4803 48230 48249 4830
Pulmonary Embolism (PE) Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT)
41511 45381 45386 45111 45183
41512 45382 45387 45119 45184
41519 45383 45389 4512 45189
45340 45384 4539 45181 4519
45341 45385 4510 45182 4536
45342
Acute gastrointestinal ulcerative disease
53100 53131 53230 53321 53420
53101 53200 53231 53330 53421
53110 53201 53300 53331 53430
53111 53210 53301 53400 53431
53120 53211 53310 53401 538
53121 53220 53311 53410 5789
53130 53221 53320 53411
Pressure Ulcers
70700 70703 70706 70720 70723
70701 70704 70707 70721 70724
70702 70705 70709 70722 70725
P4P Measure Methodology Report 33 July 2017
Electrolyte Imbalance
2760 2763 27651 2766 2768
2761 2764 27652 2767 2769
2762 27650
Debility, malaise, fatigue, weakness 7197 72887 78079 7812 7993
Complications of surgical and medical care, not elsewhere classified 997-999 37960 5187 51852 99665
E870-79 37961 51881 58153 99666
2440 37962 99659 99660 99667
28984 37963 2851 99661 99668
2910 4275 78820 99662 99669
29181 5070 72888 99663 99670
33818 5185 51851 99664
Pneumothorax, plural effusions
51189 5119 5121 5128 51289
Medication effects
693 9954 99586 99522 99523
9952
Aftercare
V5789 V571 V5849
P4P Measure Methodology Report 34 July 2017
Acute exacerbations of chronic diseases
Diabetes Mellitus (DM)
24910 24930 25012 25022 25032
24911 24931 25013 25023 25033
24920 25010 25020 25030 2510
24921 25011 25021 25031 2513
Asthma
49301 49311 49321 49391 49392
49302 49312 49322
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)
49121 49122
Congestive Heart Failure (CHF)
4150 42823 42833 42841 42843
42821 42831
Renal failure
5845 5846 5847 5848 5849
Hypertension
4010 40200 40201
P4P Measure Methodology Report 35 July 2017
Appendix C: Hierarchical Condition Categories
Condition Categories
Acute Myocardial Infarction Hemiplegia/Hemiparesis
Acute Renal Failure Hip Fracture/Dislocation
Amputation Status Complications HIV/AIDS
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Inflammatory Bowel Disease
Angina Pectoris Intestinal Obstruction/Perforation
Artificial Openings for Feeding or Elimination Ischemic or Unspecified Stroke
Aspiration and Specified Bacterial Pneumonias Lung and Other Severe Cancers
Atherosclerosis of the Extremities Lymphoma and Other Cancers
Bone/Joint/Muscle Infections/Necrosis Major Head Injury
Breast, Prostate, and Other Cancers Major Organ Transplant or Replacement Status
Cardio-Respiratory Failure and Shock Metastatic Cancer and Acute Leukemia
Cerebral Hemorrhage Monoplegia, Other Paralytic Syndromes
Cerebral Palsy Morbid Obesity
Chronic Hepatitis Multiple Sclerosis
Chronic Kidney Disease, Stage 4 Muscular Dystrophy
Chronic Kidney Disease, Stage 5 Myasthenia Gravis/Myoneural Disorders
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Opportunistic Infections
Chronic Pancreatitis Paraplegia
Chronic Ulcer of Skin, Except Pressure Parkinson's and Huntington's Diseases
Cirrhosis of Liver Pneumococcal Pneumonia, Empyema, Lung Abscess
Coagulation Defects Pressure Ulcer of Skin with Full Skin Loss
Colorectal, Bladder, and Other Cancers Pressure Ulcer of Skin with Necrosis
Coma, Brain Compression Protein-Calorie Malnutrition
Complications of Implanted Device Quadriplegia
Congestive Heart Failure Respirator Dependence
Cystic Fibrosis Respiratory Arrest
Depressive, Bipolar, and Paranoid Disorders Rheumatoid Arthritis
Diabetes with Acute Complications Schizophrenia
Diabetes with Chronic Complications Seizure Disorders and Convulsions
Diabetes without Complication Septicemia or Sepsis
Diabetic Retinopathy and Vitreous Hemorrhage Severe Head Injury
Dialysis Status Severe Hematological Disorders
Disorders of Immunity Severe Skin Burn or Condition
Drug/Alcohol Dependence Specified Heart Arrhythmias
Drug/Alcohol Psychosis Spinal Cord Disorders/Injuries
Endocrine and Metabolic Disorders Traumatic Amputations and Complications
P4P Measure Methodology Report 36 July 2017
End-Stage Liver Disease Unstable Angina, Acute Ischemic Heart Disease
Exudative Macular Degeneration Vascular Disease
Fibrosis of Lung Vascular Disease with Complications
Vertebral Fractures
P4P Measure Methodology Report 37 July 2017
Appendix D: Condition Specific Risk-Adjustment Variables
AMI Colectomy CABG
lvad colectomy_other cabg_reop
cardiac_surgery colectomy_inflam_bowel arterial_graft
iabp colectomy_vasc_insuf iabp colectomy_volvulus iabp colectomy_diverticulitis lvad colectomy_gibleed lvad
emergency_intubation
pci
pci
pci
ptca
ptca
electrophys_test
ptca
ptca
electrophys_test
electrophys_test
ptca
CHF, Pneumonia, Hip Replacement, Knee Replacement, and Other Spine:
No condition-specific risk adjustors.
P4P Measure Methodology Report 38 July 2017
Appendix E: Expected Total Episode Cost 30-day Regression Variables
Colectomy Variables
female
agegrp
large_prior_total
bcbsm
colectomy_diverticulitis
colectomy_gibleed
colectomy_inflam_bowel
colectomy_lap
colectomy_open
colectomy_ostomy
colectomy_other
colectomy_vasc_insuf
hcc_arrhythmia
hcc_artificial_openings
hcc_bact_pneumonia
hcc_bone_muscle_infect
hcc_cardio_resp_failure
hcc_chf
hcc_chron_kidney_stg5
hcc_chron_pancreatitis
hcc_coag_defects
hcc_copd
hcc_diabetes_no_cmp
hcc_drug_alcohol_depend
hcc_drug_alcohol_psych
hcc_endo_metab_othr
hcc_hemiplegia
hcc_immunity_disorder
hcc_intest_obstruct
hcc_lower_amputation_cmp
hcc_lymphoma
hcc_major_depressive
hcc_met_cancer_leuk
hcc_morbid_obesity
hcc_opp_infect
hcc_parkins_huntingtons
hcc_pdr
hcc_press_ulcer_necrosis
hcc_pro_cal_malnutr
hcc_renal_failure
hcc_rheum_arthritis
hcc_schizophrenia
hcc_seizure
hcc_septicemia
hcc_spinal_cord
CABG Variables
female
agegrp
large_prior_total
bcbsm
bypass
cabg_reop
hcc_ami
hcc_angina_pectoris
hcc_arrhythmia
hcc_atherosclerosis
hcc_cardio_resp_failure
hcc_chf
hcc_chron_kidney_stg4
hcc_chron_kidney_stg5
hcc_coma
hcc_copd
hcc_diabetes_chron_cmp
hcc_diabetes_no_cmp
hcc_ibd
hcc_implant_cmp
hcc_lymphoma
hcc_macular_degen
hcc_major_depressive
hcc_morbid_obesity
hcc_parkins_huntingtons
hcc_pro_cal_malnutr
hcc_renal_failure
hcc_rheum_arthritis
hcc_septicemia
hcc_severe_hemat
hcc_spinal_cord
hcc_stroke
hcc_trauma_amputation
hcc_vascular
hcc_vascular_cmp
P4P Measure Methodology Report 39 July 2017
AMI Variables
female
agegrp
large_prior_total
bcbsm
cardiac_surgery
electrophys_test
emergency_intubation
hcc_arrhythmia
hcc_atherosclerosis
hcc_bact_pneumonia
hcc_bone_muscle_infect
hcc_cardio_resp_failure
hcc_chf
hcc_chron_kidney_stg4
hcc_cirrhosis_liver
hcc_copd
hcc_diabetes_acute_cmp
hcc_diabetes_chron_cmp
hcc_diabetes_no_cmp
hcc_endo_metab_othr
hcc_hemiplegia
hcc_hip_fracture
hcc_implant_cmp
hcc_morbid_obesity
hcc_organ_trans
hcc_paraplegia
hcc_pro_cal_malnutr
hcc_renal_failure
hcc_resp_depend
hcc_seizure
hcc_stroke
hcc_vascular
hcc_vascular_cmp
hemodialysis
lvad
pci
ptca
Pneumonia Variables
female
agegrp
large_prior_total
bcbsm
hcc_ami
hcc_arrhythmia
hcc_artificial_openings
hcc_atherosclerosis
hcc_bact_pneumonia
hcc_bone_muscle_infect
hcc_cardio_resp_failure
hcc_cerebral_hem
hcc_chf
hcc_chron_kidney_stg5
hcc_chron_ulcer
hcc_coag_defects
hcc_copd
hcc_diabetes_chron_cmp
hcc_diabetes_no_cmp
hcc_dialysis
hcc_drug_alcohol_psych
hcc_end_stage_liver
hcc_endo_metab_othr
hcc_hemiplegia
hcc_ibd
hcc_immunity_disorder
hcc_implant_cmp
hcc_lower_amputation_cmp
hcc_lung_cancer
hcc_lymphoma
hcc_major_depressive
hcc_met_cancer_leuk
hcc_morbid_obesity
hcc_ms
hcc_opp_infect
hcc_organ_trans
hcc_paraplegia
hcc_parkins_huntingtons
hcc_pdr
hcc_pneumococcal
hcc_pro_cal_malnutr
hcc_quadriplegia
hcc_renal_failure
hcc_schizophrenia
hcc_seizure
hcc_septicemia
hcc_severe_burn
hcc_severe_hemat
hcc_spinal_cord
hcc_stroke
hcc_unstable_angina
hcc_vascular
hcc_verteb_fracture
pneumonia_intubation
pneumonia_mechvent
pneumonia_trach
P4P Measure Methodology Report 40 July 2017
CHF Variables
female
agegrp
large_prior_total
electrophys_test
emergency_intubation
hcc_ami
hcc_arrhythmia
hcc_atherosclerosis
hcc_cardio_resp_failure
hcc_cerebral_palsy
hcc_chron_hep
hcc_chron_kidney_stg4
hcc_chron_kidney_stg5
hcc_chron_ulcer
hcc_copd
hcc_crectal_bldr_cancer
hcc_diabetes_chron_cmp
hcc_diabetes_no_cmp
hcc_dialysis
hcc_end_stage_liver
hcc_endo_metab_othr
hcc_hemiplegia
hcc_ibd
hcc_implant_cmp
hcc_lung_cancer
hcc_lung_fibrosis
hcc_major_depressive
hcc_met_cancer_leuk
hcc_morbid_obesity
hcc_muscular_dystrophy
hcc_opp_infect
hcc_organ_trans
hcc_paraplegia
hcc_parkins_huntingtons
hcc_pneumococcal
hcc_press_ulcer
hcc_press_ulcer_necrosis
hcc_pro_cal_malnutr
hcc_quadriplegia
hcc_renal_failure
hcc_rheum_arthritis
hcc_seizure
hcc_septicemia
hcc_severe_hemat
hcc_vascular
hcc_vascular_cmp
hcc_verteb_fracture
ptca
Hip Replacement Variables
female
agegrp
large_prior_total
bcbsm
hcc_arrhythmia
hcc_artificial_openings
hcc_bact_pneumonia
hcc_breast_prost_cancer
hcc_chf
hcc_chron_kidney_stg4
hcc_chron_ulcer
hcc_coag_defects
hcc_copd
hcc_diabetes_chron_cmp
hcc_diabetes_no_cmp
hcc_dialysis
hcc_endo_metab_othr
hcc_hemiplegia
hcc_hip_fracture
hcc_immunity_disorder
hcc_lymphoma
hcc_macular_degen
hcc_major_depressive
hcc_major_head_injury
hcc_monoplegia
hcc_morbid_obesity
hcc_ms
hcc_parkins_huntingtons
hcc_pro_cal_malnutr
hcc_rheum_arthritis
hcc_schizophrenia
hcc_seizure
hcc_severe_hemat
hcc_vascular
hcc_verteb_fracture
P4P Measure Methodology Report 41 July 2017
Knee Replacement Variables
female
agegrp
large_prior_total
bcbsm
hcc_angina_pectoris
hcc_arrhythmia
hcc_bone_muscle_infect
hcc_chf
hcc_chron_kidney_stg4
hcc_chron_kidney_stg5
hcc_chron_ulcer
hcc_coag_defects
hcc_copd
hcc_diabetes_chron_cmp
hcc_diabetes_no_cmp
hcc_dialysis
hcc_drug_alcohol_psych
hcc_end_stage_liver
hcc_endo_metab_othr
hcc_hemiplegia
hcc_hip_fracture
hcc_ibd
hcc_implant_cmp
hcc_lung_fibrosis
hcc_macular_degen
hcc_major_depressive
hcc_major_head_injury
hcc_morbid_obesity
hcc_myasthenia_gravis
hcc_paraplegia
hcc_parkins_huntingtons
hcc_pro_cal_malnutr
hcc_renal_failure
hcc_resp_depend
hcc_schizophrenia
hcc_seizure
hcc_septicemia
hcc_severe_head_injury
hcc_severe_hemat
hcc_unstable_angina
hcc_vascular
hcc_vascular_cmp
hcc_verteb_fracture
Spine Variables
female
agegrp
large_prior_total
bcbsm
cervical_disc_degen_dx
cervical_spinal_sten_dx
hcc_angina_pectoris
hcc_cardio_resp_failure
hcc_cerebral_palsy
hcc_chf
hcc_chron_hep
hcc_chron_kidney_stg5
hcc_coag_defects
hcc_copd
hcc_diabetes_chron_cmp
hcc_drug_alcohol_depend
hcc_endo_metab_othr
hcc_hemiplegia
hcc_implant_cmp
hcc_lymphoma
hcc_major_depressive
hcc_monoplegia
hcc_morbid_obesity
hcc_organ_trans
hcc_paraplegia
hcc_parkins_huntingtons
hcc_pneumococcal
hcc_pro_cal_malnutr
hcc_quadriplegia
hcc_renal_failure
hcc_rheum_arthritis
hcc_spinal_cord
hcc_stroke
hcc_vascular
hcc_vascular_cmp
hcc_verteb_fracture
lumbar_disc_dx
lumbar_spinal_stenosis_dx
lumbar_spondyl_dx
myelopathy
P4P Measure Methodology Report 42 July 2017
Appendix F: Value-based incentive programs from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)
Bundled Payment for Care Improvement (BPCI)
BPCI is a voluntary program developed and implemented by CMS to test the effectiveness of bundling
payments for episodes of care. There are four separate models distinguished by the episode length, number of
providers involved in the program, and how payments are distributed. Nationally, more than 2,115 hospitals,
post-acute care facilities, and other providers are currently participating in BPCI.
Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP)
HVBP is a program developed by CMS that links Medicare payments to various quality and cost-efficiency
measures. At present, value-based payments are distributed to over 3,500 hospitals. The magnitude of the
value payments depends on hospital performance with measures defined by four specific categories: efficiency
(20%), clinical process of care (20%), outcome (30%), and patient experience of care (30%) The specific
efficiency measure used in this program is Medicare Spending per Beneficiary (MSPB). MSPB is a claims-based
measure that is calculated using risk-adjusted, price-standardized payments for episode of care comprising the
index hospital stay plus three days prior to admission and 30 days post-discharge.
Condition-specific episode payment measures for AMI, Heart Failure, and Pneumonia
CMS recently designed and released episode payment measures for three common medical diagnoses. The
measure calculates risk-adjusted payments for 30-day episodes of care. At present these measures are not tied
to value-based payments, however, they are publically reported as part of the Hospital Compare program.
Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CCJR)
The proposed CCJR model was developed by CMS to test episode-based bundled payments for joint
replacement surgery. Unlike BPCI (which is a voluntary program), CMS selected 75 geographic regions
(metropolitan statistical areas) to participate in in CCJR. The participants include a wide range of hospitals with
varying baseline costs. In this model, CMS will establish “target episode prices” and provide year-end
reconciliation payments for hospitals that provide joint replacement at a lower cost. Hospitals that exceed the
target price will be required to pay the difference back. To be eligible for reconciliation payments, hospitals
must simultaneously meet quality standards for complications, readmissions and patient satisfaction.
The table below provides additional details for each program.
P4P Measure Methodology Report 43 July 2017
Summary characteristics of CMS value-based incentive programs
BPCI (Model 2) MSPB (HVBP)
AMI/HF*/Pneumonia
Episode payment
measure
CCJR
Episode Length
30, 60, or 90
days post
discharge
3 days prior to index
admission through 30
days post discharge
30 day episode of care
beginning with a
hospitalization
90 day
episode
Episode Triggers
Inpatient
admission of
eligible
beneficiary to
acute care
hospital for one
of the MS-DRGs
in a selected
episode
Index inpatient
hospital admission
Index admission for
AMI/HF/Pneumonia
MS-DRG 469
or 470
Episode Inclusion
Captures
payments for all
care covered
under Medicare
Part A and Part
B within time of
episode
Captures payments for
all inpatient,
outpatient and post-
acute care claims
Captures payments for
all inpatient, outpatient
and post-acute care
claims
Captures
payments for
all inpatient,
outpatient
and post-
acute care
claims
Medical/Surgical Both Both Medical Surgical
Readmissions Included Included Included Included
*HF – Heart Failure
P4P Measure Methodology Report 44 July 2017
Appendix G: Reliability calculations for minimum case requirements
The reliability of a metric is the extent to which the variation in the measure represents actual change versus
statistical noise. We were interested in studying whether year-to-year variation in collaborative-wide mean
cost for a particular service line could be reliably distinguished from random variation. For this purpose, we
calculated the reliability ratio for all eligible service lines using data from BCBSM and Medicare patients from
2010-2012. The reliability ratio is measured on a scale from 0 (poor reliability) to 1 (good reliability).
The table below presents reliability ratios for each eligible service line stratified by annual hospital case volume
thresholds. Collectively, these data show that the aggregated (i.e., collaborative-wide) episode payment
measure is very reliable at our 10 case minimum for all service lines, with ratios generally in the range of 0.7 to
0.9. There was minimum improvement in reliability with a higher case threshold.
Reliability ratios for eight MVC service lines
Condition All hospitals Hospitals with
>10 cases Hospitals with
>15 cases Hospitals with
>20 cases Hospitals with
>25 cases Hospitals with
>30 cases
n* Reliability
ratio n* Reliability
ratio n* Reliability
ratio n* Reliability
ratio n* Reliability
ratio n* Reliability
ratio
CABG 34 0.84 33 0.85 31 0.76 29 0.82 27 0.81 25 0.85
AMI 71 0.76 69 0.79 67 0.79 66 0.80 64 0.79 60 0.81
Pneumonia 71 0.92 70 0.92 70 0.92 70 0.92 70 0.92 69 0.90
CHF 71 0.61 69 0.72 69 0.72 69 0.72 69 0.72 69 0.72
Hip replacement 71 0.83 66 0.85 63 0.87 59 0.87 52 0.89 50 0.90
Knee replacement 71 0.93 71 0.93 70 0.94 68 0.93 67 0.93 67 0.93
Spine surgery 62 0.89 43 0.91 41 0.91 39 0.92 36 0.93 36 0.93
Colectomy 71 0.76 56 0.86 45 0.84 36 0.88 31 0.89 25 0.87 *n represents the number of hospitals that fulfill the minimum case threshold reported in each column
P4P Measure Methodology Report 45 July 2017
Appendix H: Application of proposed scoring system assuming use of both BCBSM PPO and Medicare Data (example)
Program Year 2016
Hospital A selects pneumonia and joint replacement as its two service lines.
In 2016, Hospital A participates in a site visit (2 pts), attends the MVC meetings (1 pt), and creates a specific QI
action plan for improving efficiency of its pneumonia and joint replacement service lines (5 pts). However,
Hospital A did not provide feedback on risk adjustment methods. In addition, Hospital A performs above the
10th percentile on the mortality and related readmission measures, thereby meeting the quality requirements.
Therefore, Hospital A will earn 8 out of 10 possible points for 2016.
P4P measure structure and scoring system 2016 2017 2018 and 2019
Measure theme
Deep engagement with MVC data
Transition Year Year over year improvement
Absolute achievement
Measure scoring
2 pts - Participate in site
visit with MVC 1 pt - Provide feedback
on risk adjustments
1 pt - Provide feedback on P4P measure
1 pt - Attend MVC meetings
5 pts - Create specific QI action plans for 2017
Baseline: Hospital service line total episode costs for the most recently available 12 month period 2018/2019 scoring:^ 1 pt = baseline mean 2 pts = baseline mean
- 0.05 * SD based target
3 pts = baseline mean - 0.10 * SD based target
4 pts = baseline mean - 0.15 * SD based target
5 pts = baseline mean - 0.20 * SD based target
Baseline: MVC-wide service line total episode costs for the most recently available 12 month period 2018/2019 scoring:^ 50th %tile = 1 pt 60th %tile = 2 pts 70th %tile = 3 pts 80th %tile = 4 pts 90th %tile = 5 pts
No Score
Collaboration goal
+1 pt per service line if ≥ 5% improvement
among hospitals choosing the specific service line
^ = scoring for each service line assumes use of both BCBSM PPO and Medicare claims SD = standard deviation
or
P4P Measure Methodology Report 46 July 2017
Program Years 2018 and 2019
In 2018, Hospital A again meets the quality requirement by performing above the 10th percentile on the
mortality and related readmission measure.
Hospital A’s 30-day mean episode costs for joint replacement are outlined below:
Service line Mean costs for baseline period
MVC Winsorized Standard
Deviation based target for
baseline period
Mean costs in 2018
performance period
Joint replacement $16,393 $2,100 $16,871
Hospital A’s 2018 cost improvement targets for joint replacement are calculated as follows:
Because Hospital A does not reduce its joint replacement costs any further in 2018, it does not earn any points
for year-over-year improvement. However, because Hospital A’s 2018 episode costs for joint replacement are
well below its cohort’s average episode cost for joint replacement (i.e., Hospital A is a high performer), it is still
eligible for achievement points.
Mean costs for baseline period
Hospital A’s Cohort $19,202
Hospital A $16,871
2018 year over year
improvement targets Points
$16,393 1
$16,393 – (0.05*$2,100) = $16,288 2
$16,393 – (0.10*$2,100) = $16,183 3
$16,393 – (0.15*$2,100) = $16,078 4
$16,393– (0.20*$2,100) = $15,973 5
2018 achievement targets Points
$19,202 (50th percentile) 1
$18,883 (60th percentile) 2
$18,378 (70th percentile) 3
$17,502 (80th percentile) 4
$16,792 (90th percentile) 5
P4P Measure Methodology Report 47 July 2017
Hospital A will earn 4 points for absolute achievement because its 2018 joint replacement costs are ranked
between the 80th and 90th percentiles. Separately, all hospitals in the state working on joint replacement
reduced average episode costs by more than 5% (data not shown). However, since Hospital A’s 2018 joint
replacement costs were higher than its baseline costs, it would not be eligible to earn an additional bonus
point as part of its collaboration goal.
For 2018, Hospital A will earn a total of 4 points for its joint replacement service line. Its 2018 pneumonia
service line performance would be scored separately using the same methodology.
P4P Measure Methodology Report 48 July 2017
Appendix I: Method for calculating baseline performance data
The schedule for determining baseline costs must take into account the claims rectification and distribution
schedules from BCBSM and Medicare. The baseline cost will be calculated from the most recently available
twelve-months of claims data and will be two-years prior to the performance year. The purpose of the two-
year window is to provide hospitals with prospective targets and allow more time for the impact of quality
initiatives to be observed in episode costs. The performance costs will be derived from the most recently
available twelve-months of claims data, which will be approximately twelve-months prior to the beginning of
the 2017 and 2018 program years. This twelve-month lag period accounts for the time required for hospital
claims submissions, processing of claims by BCBSM and Medicare, and analytics and reporting by MVC.
Reporting Timeline
P4P Program Year
Cal
en
dar
Ye
ar
2018 2019
20
15
Baseline Period (Services provided 1/1/15 – 12/31/15)
20
16
Baseline Period
(Services provided 1/1/16 – 12/31/16)
20
17
Performance Period (Services provided 1/1/17 – 12/31/17)
20
18
Data Analysis/Claims Adjudication Performance Period
(Services provided 1/1/18 – 12/31/18)
20
19
Payment Applied 7/1/19 Data Analysis/Claims Adjudication
20
20
Payment Applied 7/1/20
P4P Measure Methodology Report 49 July 2017
Appendix J: P4P Cohort Structure
Figure 1. Cohorts developed for the service lines of: Joint, Pneumonia, CHF, and Colectomy.
The presence of 300 or more beds and teaching status are used to distinguish between Cohorts 1 and 2. A
hospital must meet both criteria to be categorized as Cohort 1. The presence of 100 beds or more and
teaching status are used to differentiate between Cohorts 3 and 4. Unlike distinguishing between Cohorts 1
and 2, a hospital only needs to meet one of these criteria to be classified as Cohort 3 to ensure balance in the
grouping dispersion.
Figure 2. AMI Cohort Designation
The AMI cohort groups are based upon clinical intervention services.
N=33
N=14
N=9
P4P Measure Methodology Report 50 July 2017
Figure 3: CABG Cohort Designation
The CABG cohort is based upon the structural characteristic of bed size. This decision was made because
nearly half of MVC hospitals to not offer CABG services, and the CMI distribution does not produce distinct
clusters of hospitals.
Figure 4. Spine Cohort Designation
The spine cohort groups are based upon whether a hospital performs complex spine surgery (as determined by
Spine DRG CMI) as well as the structural characteristics of bed size and teaching status.
N=17
N=15
N=15
N=17
N=18