michele bozzano ipgri climate change and forest genetic diversity
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Michele Bozzano
IPGRI
Climate change and forest genetic diversity
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Climate change and forest genetic diversity
• Climate change – the problem
• International context
• Case studies
• Climate change and FGR in Europe
• Research needs and Concluding remarks
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Gösta ErikssonForest geneticsmodified
Global climate change is not a recent phenomenon
Forest trees have continuously responded on climate change
New is the speed of change
New is the degradation of the environment
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Gösta ErikssonForest genetics
Mutation rates in these traits
Factors of importance in case of rapid global change
Dispersal ability
Existing additive variance in important traits
Speed of evolution
Mating pattern
Possibilities to acclimate
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Climatic conditions suitable for growth of species A
Gösta ErikssonForest genetics
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http://www.ipcc.ch/
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http://www.frameweb.org/ev_en.php?ID=1123_201&ID2=DO_TOPIChttp://www.climate.org/CI/asia.shtml
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap11.pdf
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/411.htm
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tpbiodiv.pdf
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http://www.biodiv.org/programmes/cross-cutting/climate/
default.asp
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Case study
Australia
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Ensis Forests
THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
Determining Tree Species Climatic Requirements and Climate Change Impacts on Their Distributions
Trevor H. Booth
and Tom Jovanovic
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THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
Booth & Jovanovic (2005)
Climatic change study for AGO
CSIRO Marine & Atmos. Res. scenarios DARLAM & Cubic Conformal 2030 & 2070 31 tree species
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THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
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THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
Hughes et al. (1996) Vulnerable Euc. hotspot
Present CC 2030 CC 2070
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Of possible interst: Matching Trees and Sites”. ACIAR
Proceedings No. 63
http://www.aciar.gov.au/web.nsf/doc/JFRN-5J474N
To try to have a free copy write to:[email protected] specifying the country and the use you wish to do with it
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Climate change and FGR in Europe
Climate change and FGR in Europe
• Fourth Ministerial Conference on the Protection Forests in Europe (MCPFE), Vienna, Austria, 2003– Vienna Resolution 5: Climate change and
sustainable forest management
• Workshop on ‘Climate change and forest genetic diversity: Implications for sustainable forest management in Europe, Paris, France, 15-16 March 2006
Jarkko Koskela IPGRI
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Climate change and FGR in Europe
Climate change and FGR in Europe
Key issues in Europe
• Adaptation of forest trees
• Forest management
• Policies and economic considerations
• Conservation of forest genetic resources under climate change
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Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees
Climate change and sessile oak (Quercus petraea)
Current distribution:ObservedSimulated
Future distribution 2080:Gain Stable Loss
Simulations with BIOMOD modelThuiller 2003, Global Change Biology
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Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees
• Simulations are often based on the ‘climatic envelope’ approach
• The responses are not likely to be simple and straightforward
• Genetic processes in tree populations can modify their ecological niches – at individual level (plasticity, individual
heterozygosity, changes in gene expression) the responses can be fast
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Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees
• How fast a tree population respond to climate change? Answers from:– Long-distance transfer of forest
reproductive material– Provenance trials– Theoretical simulations
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Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees
• Experimental evidences:– Long-distance transfer results in most
cases to rapid differentiation of populations (e.g. landraces in exotic species; American oaks and conifers in Europe)
– Tree populations have undergone profound genetic differentiation as a result of natural selection (based on 50-yr provenance trials)
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Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees
• Migration– The current tree species in Europe have
gone through selection process based on their capacity to migrate during the glacial-interglacial changes (extinctions of many species and genera (Magnolia, Liriodendron, Nyssa,Taxodium, Sequoia) during the process)
– Can be an efficient mechanism to withstand climate change
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Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees
• Problems for migration– Spontaneous migration of tree species is
unlikely in Europe today (intensive management, fragmented landscapes)
– Landscape is not empty but filled with existing plant species -> interspecific competition
– Can be a slow process
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Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees
• Careful transfer of forest reproductive material based on scientific results have the potential to accelerate adaptation of forest trees to climate change in Europe
• The effects of climate change on tree populations are different in various parts of Europe (temperature, droughts)
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Research needs
• Understanding
• Mitigate (CO2 storage + environment restoration)
• Safeguard the species and their genetic diversity