michael zgurovsky national technical university of ukraine kyiv polytechnic institute...
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Michael ZgurovskyNational Technical University of Ukraine“Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”[email protected]
Knowledge Security and Knowledge Security and Responsible Science as Responsible Science as
Integral Components of a Integral Components of a Safe and Secure of Global Safe and Secure of Global
Society Society
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Properties:Properties: Development of the knowledge of "how to operate“ type
The main dimension of IS is technological;
Transformation of information into the digital form;
Storage of great volumes of information (data bases);
Transfer of great volumes of digital information over distances by Internet;
Emergence of network interaction between people;
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INFORMATION SOCIETY INFORMATION SOCIETY (has arisen in 80-90-(has arisen in 80-90-ss of last century) of last century)
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Properties:Properties:Additionally to knowledge type "how to operate" the knowledge "how to co-exist" has started to be developed;
Dimensions: technological, social, ethnic, political;
Mass production of the new, harmonized knowledge by IKT; Scientific knowledge became productive forces of K-society;
An integral vector of development of the K-society is quality and safety of people life.
KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY SOCIETY (has arisen on the boundary of the XX-XXIst (has arisen on the boundary of the XX-XXIst
centuries)centuries)
Iks=Iia+If+IaIks=Iia+If+IaIia - Iia - Intellectual Assets Index;;If - If - Foresightedness Index;;Ia - Ia - Advancement Index
Iks=Iia+If+IaIks=Iia+If+IaIia - Iia - Intellectual Assets Index;;If - If - Foresightedness Index;;Ia - Ia - Advancement Index
K-Society Gauging MatrixK-Society Gauging Matrix((United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 20052005))
IiaIia
IfIf
IaIa
IksIks
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IndexesIndexes IndicatorsIndicators
IiaIia Intellectual Assets
Index
Years of schooling (years)
Young population getting education (% of 0-14 age group)
Level of information granting to the population by the Internet, telephones, newspapers, magazines
If If Foresightedness
Index
Gov’t Health Expenditures (% of total gov’t exp)R & D expenditures (% of GDP)
Military expenditures (% of GDP) Pupils per teacher in primary school
Corruption perception (10-point scale)
Ia Ia Advancement
Index
Child mortality (children under 5 years per 1000 births)
Income Inequality (Gini Index)
Part of ecologically protected territory (% of the total territory)
CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)
Indexes ofIndexes of К- К-SocietySociety
5 Leading countries by K-5 Leading countries by K-society Indexsociety IndexRank Countries
1 Sweden2 Denmark3 Norway4 Finland5 Switzerland
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Rank Countries6 Japan
7 Germany
10 Great Britain
12 USA
14 Canada
15 France
21 Italy
Not included in Top 45
Russia, China
G8 Counties by K-society G8 Counties by K-society indexindex
Disharmony between knowledge Disharmony between knowledge "how to operate" and "how to co-"how to operate" and "how to co-
existexist
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Top 5 CountriesTop 5 Countriesby by Foresightedness IndexForesightedness Index
1.Denmark If=0.8762.Austria If=0.8283.Slovakia If=0.7594.Costa Rika If=0.7595.Switzerland If=0.750
G8 CountriesG8 Countriesby by Foresightedness IndexForesightedness Index
8. Germany If=0.77311.Great Brittan If=0.71214.Japan If=0.68315.France If=0.68225.Italy If=0.66237.Canada If=0.55038.USA If=0,547Russia not included in Top 45
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
500 14000 28000 55000
If
GDP per capita
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Comparison by Intellectual Assets Index (Ііа)
Country ІіаYears of
schooling
Young population
getting education
(% of 0-14 age
group)
Newspapers per 1,000 pop.
Internet users
per 10000 pop.
Main phone
lines per 100 pop.
Cell phones per
100 pop.
Europe-5 0.704 15.92 18.17 426.8 4897 68.53 78.3 Ukraine 0.576 11.5 17.05 54 3900 50.3 60.38
Сomparison by Advancement Index (Іa)
Country ІaR & D
expenditures
(% of GDP)
Military expenditures
(% of GDP)
Gov’t Health Expenditures
(% of total gov’t exp)
Pupils per teacher in primary school
Corruption perception
(10-point scale)
Europe-5 0.761 2.80 1.760 13.0 11.3 9.22
Ukraine 0.383 0.95 1.793 7.6 20.0 2.30Comparison by Foresightedness Index (Іf)
Country ІfChild mortality
(children under 5 years per 1000 births)
GINI Index
Part of ecologically protected territory
(% of the total territory)
CO2 emissions
(metric tons per capita)
Europe-5 0.735 4.4 26.80 8.64 8.9
Ukraine 0.620 20 28.96 1.00 6.2
Comparison of Ukraine with Europe-5 by K-Society Comparison of Ukraine with Europe-5 by K-Society IndicatorsIndicators
(Europ-5: (Europ-5: Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, United Kingdom)
The possible Ukrainian Strategy of The possible Ukrainian Strategy of Approaching to K-SocietyApproaching to K-Society
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– – TO ACCELERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST TO ACCELERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST STAGE (INFORMATION SOCIETY) BY MEANS OF STAGE (INFORMATION SOCIETY) BY MEANS OF INVOLVEMENT OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL INVOLVEMENT OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
INVESTMENTS AND CARRYING OUT PRINCIPALLY INVESTMENTS AND CARRYING OUT PRINCIPALLY IMPORTANT INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONSIMPORTANT INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS; ;
– – TO MOBILIZE IN THE UNIFIED COMPLEX POLITICAL TO MOBILIZE IN THE UNIFIED COMPLEX POLITICAL AND PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE AND PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE PURPOSE OF PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT PURPOSE OF PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT STAGE – K-SOCIETY, THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF WHICH STAGE – K-SOCIETY, THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF WHICH SHOULD BE ENSURING HIGH QUALITY AND SECURITY SHOULD BE ENSURING HIGH QUALITY AND SECURITY
OF LIFE FOR ALL CITIZENS OF UKRAINE.OF LIFE FOR ALL CITIZENS OF UKRAINE.
MAIN GLOBAL THREATS OF XXI CENTURY
Energy& Resources crisis
Global Diseases
Humanitarian Cataclysms
Environ-mental Problems
Growing Biocapacity/Consumption Misbalance
2007 20922050
↑ ↑ Consumption Production ↓↓
oil gas uranium 235
years
Global ReductionGlobal Reductionof Natural Energy Resourcesof Natural Energy Resources
//Hermann Scheer – Energy is a driving force for our civilization – SOLAR ADVOCATE, 2005
ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
-
- Growing pollution of
environment;
- Global warming;
- Climate change;
- Natural and Anthropogenicdisasters;
- Limited access to the potable waterhttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=45069
Temperature anomalies for Temperature anomalies for the Russian Federation the Russian Federation from July 20–27, 2010from July 20–27, 2010
TuberculosisMalaria
Years
Cancer
Ischemicheart disease
Cerebral vascular disease (stroke)
HIV/AIDS
Other infectiousdiseases
The World Health Statistics 2009The World Health Statistics 2009
Vulnerability to Global DiseasesVulnerability to Global Diseases
//World Health Organization: http://apps.who.int/whosis/data/Search.jsp
Biological DisbalanceBiological Disbalance
Ecological debtor and creditor countries, 2005
Source: Living Planet Report 2008 Link: http://assets.panda.org/downloads/living_planet_report_2008.pdf
Gap ≈ 14 BillionGlobal HectaresGap ≈ 14 BillionGlobal Hectares
UN World Population Projections, 1950-2050UN World Population Projections, 1950-2050
‘INFORMATIONBOOM’
0,9 ZB0,9 ZB
35 ZB35 ZB
Gap 20 ZB2020
Zettabyte = 1021 bytes
ZB
Information Size > Storage AvailableSource: IDC Digital Universe Study 2010Link: http://www.emc.com/collateral/demos/microsites/idc-digital-universe/iview.htm
0,25 0,25 ZBZB
15 ZB15 ZB
Threat 1 (ES)
Threat 10 (ND)Threat 2 (FB)
Country Sustainability
FBFB°°NDND°°
ESES°°
3
1
3)(
n
l
ojlj TrrT
- Remoteness to the ThreatsTotality (Minkovsky Norm)
Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global ThreatsImpact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats
Isec =
ThreatsTotality
- Security Index (Minkovsky Norm)
- Security Index (Minkovsky Norm)
3
1
3)(
n
l
ojlj TrrT
1. Data Preparation1. Data Preparation
ND)SFGWWACP,CM,CD,GINI,FB,(ES=rTj
,,,,
jkjk rTrTKK
4. Klasterization4. Klasterization
3. Calculation of the Remotness to the Threats Totality 3. Calculation of the Remotness to the Threats Totality
ESES – Energy SecurityFBFB – Footprint and Biocapacity Misbalance GINIGINI – InequalityGDGD – Global DiseasesCMCM – Child MortalityCPCP – Corruption PerceptionWAWA – Water Access GW GW – Global WarmingSF SF – State FragilityNDND – Natural Disasters
ESES – Energy SecurityFBFB – Footprint and Biocapacity Misbalance GINIGINI – InequalityGDGD – Global DiseasesCMCM – Child MortalityCPCP – Corruption PerceptionWAWA – Water Access GW GW – Global WarmingSF SF – State FragilityNDND – Natural Disasters
2. Normalization2. Normalization
)NDSFGWWA,,CP,CM,CD,GINIFB,(ES=orT oooooooooo
j,,,
Isec =
Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats on the Sustainabilityon the Sustainability 18
10 leader Countries in terms of Security of 10 leader Countries in terms of Security of K-SocietyK-Society
G8 Countries in Terms of G8 Countries in Terms of Security of K-SocietySecurity of K-Society
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BRICS Countries in terms of BRICS Countries in terms of Security of K-SocietySecurity of K-Society
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10 Least Safe Countries10 Least Safe Countries
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ISO Country Security
Rank
Secu
rity
Ind
ex (
Min
ko
wski
No
rm)
Global Threats
En
erg
y S
ecu
rity
In
dex
Fo
otp
rin
t an
d b
iocap
acit
y B
ala
nce
Ineg
uality
(G
ini I
nd
ex)
Co
rru
pti
on
Perc
ep
tio
n
Wate
r A
ccess
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
Ch
ild
Mo
rtality
Natu
ral C
ata
str
ofs
Sta
te F
rag
ilit
y
Glo
bal
De
sast
ers
HND Honduras 97 0,26 0,61 0,51 0,17 0,29 0,43 0,66 0,51 0,56 0,60 0,54
DZA Algeria 98 0,23 0,30 0,45 0,57 0,33 0,38 0,59 0,50 0,35 0,54 0,50
BGD Bangladesh 99 0,23 0,48 0,51 0,65 0,29 0,33 0,69 0,37 0,71 0,67 0,39
UZB Uzbekistan 100 0,22 0,30 0,46 0,54 0,22 0,45 0,53 0,47 0,34 0,56 0,58
PHL Philippines 101 0,20 0,58 0,47 0,39 0,29 0,52 0,67 0,49 0,96 0,66 0,48
PAK Pakistan 102 0,19 0,55 0,49 0,62 0,28 0,51 0,67 0,19 0,78 0,87 0,35
THA Thailand 103 0,19 0,38 0,43 0,22 0,40 0,64 0,55 0,62 0,94 0,92 0,54
MDG Madagascar 104 0,19 0,70 0,61 0,33 0,30 0,03 0,70 0,33 0,78 0,92 0,34
ZAF South Africa 105 0,18 0,51 0,43 0,17 0,51 0,52 0,37 0,31 0,41 0,30 0,07
What should happen with the What should happen with the world civilization if its behavior world civilization if its behavior
is subordinated to the is subordinated to the paradigm of unlimited paradigm of unlimited
consumption?consumption?
Possible Scenarios Generated by Totality Possible Scenarios Generated by Totality of Global Threatsof Global Threats
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««In the geological history of biosphere human beings will have great future, if they realize it
and do not use their mind and labor for self-destruction» Vladimir Vernadsky, 1947Vladimir Vernadsky, 1947
«If the mankind is not going to radically «If the mankind is not going to radically change its behavior on the Planetary scale, then change its behavior on the Planetary scale, then
in the middle of XXI century there may appear in the middle of XXI century there may appear conditions under which people cannot exist» conditions under which people cannot exist» Nikita Moiseyev, Nikita Moiseyev,
2000 2000
The answer to this question can be The answer to this question can be found in the works of two scientists: found in the works of two scientists:
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The statistical data for Vernadsky’s and The statistical data for Vernadsky’s and Moiseev postulats corresponded to the constant Moiseev postulats corresponded to the constant paradigm of the mankind existence: paradigm of the mankind existence: “Unlimited “Unlimited satisfaction of its needs and requirements” satisfaction of its needs and requirements”
If we assume that the mankind will change If we assume that the mankind will change the paradigm of its existence on the Planetary the paradigm of its existence on the Planetary scale for K-Society one: scale for K-Society one: «Harmonious «Harmonious coexistence», coexistence», then mankind will find new then mankind will find new prospects for prolongation of its mission on the prospects for prolongation of its mission on the Planet.Planet.
What is the way out for mankind for the What is the way out for mankind for the situation?situation?
K-SOCIETY
MISSION
“To facilitate S&T development in accordance with new challenges and priorities of the international science with the purpose of formation of Safe and Secure Global Society"
Proposal:
Thank Thank you you !!
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