michael wall - kpmg - skilled migration policy – winding back the clock?
DESCRIPTION
Michael Wall delivered the presentation at the 2014 Skilling Australia Summit. The 8th Annual Skilling Australia Summit considered the current policy framework and examined state and national challenges for skilling the Australian economy at this time. Current skilled shortages within industry groups were addressed and debated. For more information about the event, please visit: http://www.informa.com.au/skillingoz14TRANSCRIPT
1 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Agenda
The role of migration policy in supporting economic development
A greater role for the business in shaping migration policy
Emerging trends in global mobility
2 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
A message from Arthur Calwell
3 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
• Net growth in working age population aged 15-64 in Australia based on 2008 outlook with different annual migration assumptions
1972 2056 2012
- 100,000
- 50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 2053 2056
ERP Proj - 0k NOM Proj - 70k NOM Proj - 180k NOM
Australia is moving from baby boom to baby bust … the effect of Net Overseas Migration
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Estimated Resident Population
4 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Japan’s prime tax-paying population has been in decline for 20 years
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000 19
51
1953
19
55
1957
19
59
1961
19
63
1965
19
67
1969
19
71
1973
19
75
1977
19
79
1981
19
83
1985
19
87
1989
19
91
1993
19
95
1997
19
99
2001
20
03
2005
20
07
2009
20
11
2013
20
15
2017
20
19
2021
20
23
2025
20
27
2029
20
31
2033
20
35
2037
20
39
2041
20
43
2045
20
47
2049
20
51
Demographic Faultline
1951 2051 2012
Net change in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in Japan
Source: KPMG Demographics, utilising data from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition
5 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
China must manage its demographic faultline later this decade
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000 19
51
1953
19
55
1957
19
59
1961
19
63
1965
19
67
1969
19
71
1973
19
75
1977
19
79
1981
19
83
1985
19
87
1989
19
91
1993
19
95
1997
19
99
2001
20
03
2005
20
07
2009
20
11
2013
20
15
2017
20
19
2021
20
23
2025
20
27
2029
20
31
2033
20
35
2037
20
39
2041
20
43
2045
20
47
2049
20
51
1951 2051 2012
Net change in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in China
Source: KPMG Demographics, utilising data from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition
Demographic Faultline
6 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia’s migration programmes
Permanent Migration Programme ■ Set by government on an annual basis
■ Wide Industry consultation and labour market research
■ Main components
– Family
– Employer sponsored
– General Skilled Migration
– Business Innovation and Investment
■ Humanitarian programme
Temporary Programme ■ Ongoing policy revision
■ Demand-driven – no quotas
■ Main components
– Subclass 457 visa
– Student visa
– Working Holiday visa
7 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Skilled migration – Australian Government’s stated objectives
■ To build economic growth through addressing skills shortages, preventing labour force decline and ameliorating our declining aged dependency ratio (workers to retirees)
■ To assist the three ‘P’s’ of economic growth – Population, participation and productivity
■ To attract the best and brightest skilled migrants
■ To complement but not displace Australian workers (jobs and training for Australians remains the government’s top priority)
■ To ensure that skilled migration is only used to fill genuine skill shortages
8 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Skilled migration – Key features
■ Makes up 67.7% of the Migration Programme for 2013 – 2014*
■ Increased 19% from 107,868 in 2009 – 10 to 128,973 in 2012-2013*
■ Employer sponsored increased 15% from 40,987 to 47,250 in same period*
■ Introduction of SkillSelect in 2012 - A move to a demand driven program
■ Increased focus on regional programs leading to an increase in visa numbers
Source: 2012-13 Migration Program Report DIBP
9 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
SkillSelect
■ Introduction of the Skilled Occupation List (SOL) cutting eligible occupations under General Skilled Migration from around 400 to 180
■ SOL developed and maintained by the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency (Department of Industry from 1 July 2014)
■ Thorough skills assessment process required through Government appointed assessing authorities deemed appropriate for the nominated occupation
■ Quotas set for each occupation
■ Individuals must be invited to apply
■ Ability for employers to directly access SkillSelect applicants via the Employer Portal of SkillSelect
10 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
A greater role for the business
■ Significant industry consultation including:
– 457 integrity review
– SIV review
– BIIP review
– Offshore Resources Act
– Migration Programme Consultations
■ Increase in employer sponsored migration as a key policy initiative.
11 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Employer sponsored outcome from 2003-04 to 2012-13
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Offshore Onshore
Source: 2012-13 Migration Program Report DIBP
12 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (RSMS) outcome from 2003-04 to 2012-13
Source: 2012-13 Migration Program Report DIBP
2,183 3,166 3,454 3,784
5,062
8,811 10,213
11,120
16,471
20,510
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
13 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Emerging trends in global mobility
■ Global mobility pushing up the Boardroom Agenda
■ Mobility on the rise but taking a different form
■ A move away from the traditional 2-4 year international expatriate assignment
■ Increase in short term assignments and business travellers due to factors including:
– Cost control
– Speed of deployment
– Technology advancements
– Family commitments
■ Increase in international mobility of the below 35 year age bracket
■ Greater focus on linking talent with mobility
14 © 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Emerging trends in global mobility (continued)
■ Increased compliance focus by Governments around the world and the corporate response
– Global centralisation of immigration programs
– Greater use of technology to track international assignments
– Linking the tax and immigration functions – the two areas of greater risk
Thank you
Michael Wall Partner
National Leader – Immigration Services
KPMG Australia +61 2 9335 8625
MARN 9576974