michael p totten denin talk "water in an uncertain climate future" focusing on win-win...
DESCRIPTION
The DENIN Dialogue Series is a semiannual lecture series sponsored by the Delaware Environmental Institute (DENIN) that brings experts of international renown in environmental research and policy to address the public at UD's Newark campus. Totten's presentation will be podcast on DENIN's iTunes U site following the lecture. Totten will address the topic “Water in an Uncertain Climate Future.” Billions of people around the world are mired in poverty, are chronically ill, and lack adequate drinking water and basic sanitation services. Efforts to ensure water security now also contend with the impacts of climate change and the uncertainty in water flow and availability. Water use is pervasive throughout the global economy but concentrated in agriculture (about 75 percent of water withdrawals worldwide) and thermal power plants (48 percent of off-stream use in the U.S.). A core concern is how to deliver water services for these needs at least cost and risk while addressing issues of social equity and ecological integrity. Totten will present the case that there are win-win-win pathways in addressing these multiple crises, and he will highlight some of the evidence and experience to date in using innovative practices, policies and regulations in delivering water and water-related services. He has nearly three decades of professional experience in promoting ecologically sustainable economic development at the local, national and international levels. At Conservation International's CELB, he engages corporations and public institutions in adopting strategies to shrink and offset the ecological footprints of goods and services throughout their lifecycle. He has given more than 1,500 presentations and written scores of publications. Totten is the principal co-author of the 2008 book, A Climate for Life: Meeting the Global Challenge, an interdisciplinary perspective on preventing catastrophic climate change and human-triggered species extinction while providing robust economic growth. He received the Lewis Mumford Prize for Environment in 2000 for pioneering the creation of interactive multimedia and Internet tools for spurring ecologically sustainable development. As senior adviser to U.S. Rep. Claudine Schneider (R-R.I.), he drafted the 1989 Global Warming Prevention Act, cosponsored by one-third of the House of Representatives.TRANSCRIPT
Water in an Uncertain Climate
Future
Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green Technologies, Conservation International
Denin Dialogue Series
Delaware Environmental Institute
November 30, 2010
21052005
2 to 3% Annual Average
growth Gross World
Product (GWP) in 21st
Century (~10 to 20x
today’s GWP)
2105
$500 trillion GWP
~$50,000 per cap
# in poverty?
$50 trillion GWP
~$7,500 per cap
2+ billion in
poverty
$1,000 trillion GWP
~$100,000 per cap
# in poverty?
More absolute poor than any time
in human history
[alongside more wealth than ever]M
ass p
overty
Clim
ate
wie
rdin
g
Where we will be by 2100 900ppm
Par
ts p
er
Mill
ion
CO
2
Past planetary mass extinctions
triggered by high CO2 >550ppm
Oce
an
s
Acid
ifyin
g
55 million years since oceans as acidic –
business-as-usual emissions growth
threaten collapse of marine life food web
Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
40% decline in phytoplankton – base of
the marine food web -- past 50 years
Sp
ecie
s
extin
ctio
n
Species extinction by humans
1000x natural background rate
Ecological Footprint
Map source: Jelks, H. J., S. J.
Walsh, N. M. Burkhead, S.
Contreras-Balderas, E. Díaz-
Pardo, D. A. Hendrickson, J.
Lyons, N. E. Mandrak, F.
McCormick, J. S. Nelson, S. P.
Platania, B. A. Porter, C. B.
Renaud, J. J. Schmitter-Soto, E.
B. Taylor, and M. L. Warren, Jr.
2008. Conservation status of
imperiled North American
freshwater and diadromous
fishes. Fisheries 33(8): 372–40
Decline of North American Freshwater Fishes
Fish species 8
times more
threatened
than
mammals or
birds in the
USA
37% Freshwater Fish Species Threatened
%
Sources: IUCN Red List 2009 for species threatened, and
IUCN 2000 for map
2 billion people lack safe water
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach
adulthood stunted for good.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of
dollars in lost income to the poor
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Incident Human Water Security Threat
Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river
biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
Incident Biodiversity Threat
Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
Threat to Human Water Security & Biodiversity
Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
Intensive farming
and grazing
practices and
deforestation in
China have led to
more frequent dust
storms, like this
one in 2001 that
swept aerosol
particles into the
Great Lakes region
of the US, and even
left a sprinkling in
the Alps mountains
in Europe.
Increased dust in the Sahel, which can spread far out to sea (inset), has been linked to agriculture. Credit: J. Leyrer/NIOZ (photo); NASA (inset)
2 C increase
4 C increase
Direction of change in water run-off by 2060
Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011
369, 99-116
drier areas dry further &
wetter areas become wetter
Seasonal changes Mean Annual Run-off 2060
Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011
369, 99-116
Nile Ganges Murray Darling
Danube Mississippi Amazon
+2 C
+4 C
+2 C increasing
to +4 C by
2100
Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity at +4°C
William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.
Interactions may result in societal impacts that are
greater than the sum of individual sectoral impacts
Resource
Wars &
Conflicts
Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The
Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/
Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion
Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 TrajectoryGtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm
Based on 6 Celsius average
global temperature rise due to
greater climate sensitivity
Need to reverse CO2 emissions by 2015
and become negative CO2 by 2050 to
achieve <350 ppm
Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
>$/GDP/cap
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL
Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:
Martin Weitzman
Averting catastrophes by
Greening the
Global Economy
Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too
differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3
knowledge relationships of knowledge
Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames
Natural system
Technical system
Social system
USA Water Chart 2004
45% US water use
75% US water consumption
A new water disinfector for thedeveloping world’s poor
• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection
• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)
• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe
DESIGN CRITERIA
Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
WaterHealth Intl deviceAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
water%202008.pdf
WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International
The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of
our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of
operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.
Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus
creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities
for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water
to outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user
fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
WaterHealth International
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to
irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation
can waste as much as 80% of the water.
Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and
artificially low water prices, often unconnected to
the amount of water used.
Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops
such as cotton can mean water savings of up to
80% compared to conventional flood irrigation
systems, but these techniques are out of reach
for most small farmers.
Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of
the world‟s irrigated area.
Soft Water Path
More productive, Less cost, Less damage
Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the
Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/
The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500
trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually
Immense Water Waste
WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003
Hoekstra, A.Y. (2008) Measuring your water footprint: What’s next in water strategy, Leading Perspectives, Summer 2008, pp. 12-13, 19, http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=files/CorporateWaterFootprints.
Energy/Water Integration Benefits
during Drought Periods
Source: Andrew Belden, Priscilla Cole, Holly Conte et al. 2008. Integrated Policy and Planning for Water and Energy,
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Univ. of Delaware.
1 4 5 38
552 541
784
1022
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
(relative to wind power=1)
Water consumption per kWh100,000+
Green Power or
Megadamus
negavitae?
Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions
Tucuruí dam, Brazil
St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience
50: 766–75,
Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International
Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
DAMReservoir
Area
(km2)
Generating
Capacity
(MW)
km2/
MW
Emissions:
Hydro
(MtCO2-
eq/yr)
Emissions:
CC Gas
(MtCO2-
eq/yr)
Emissions
Ratio
Hydro/Gas
Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4
Curuá-
Una72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5
Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58
The water requirements of energy
derived from biomass are about 70 to
400 times more than that of other energy
carriers such as fossil fuels, wind, and
solar. More than 90% of the water
needed is used in the production of the
feedstock.
What about Biofuels?
Source: Gerbens-Leenes, P.W., A. Hoekstra, Th. van der Meer. 2008. Water footprint of bio-energy and other primary
energy carriers. Value of Water Research Report Series No. 29. UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands..
Projections of crop water use and
irrigation withdrawals for bio-energy
Source: De Fraiture, C. & Berndes, G. 2009. Biofuels and water. Pages 139-153 in R.W. Howarth and S. Bringezu (Eds.)
Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Proceedings of the Scientific Committee
on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) International Biofuels Project Rapid Assessment, 22-25 September 2008,
Gummersbach, Germany. Ithaca NY: Cornell University. http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/) .
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land required for agriculture.
800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FOR MEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS.
Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats under constant threat.
Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-w/storage turbine spacing
Wind turbines ground footprint
Solar-w/storage
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?
Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies
Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –
1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere
worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never
failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility
afflicting every energy and power source used in driving
economic activity
SUN FUSION PHOTONS
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%
total US electricity from brownfields
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Material
Replaced
Economic
MeasureBeijing Shanghai
Polished
Stone
NPV ($)
BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$18,586
2.33
1
+$14,237
2.14
1
Aluminum
NPV ($)
BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$15,373
1.89
2
+$11,024
1.70
2
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
China Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Economics of Commercial BIPVChina Economics of Commercial BIPV
Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
MW
Compared to:Wind power 121,000 MWNuclear power 350,000 MWHydro power 770,000 MWNatural Gas power 1 million MWCoal power 2 million MW
Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008
40% annual growth rateDoubling <22 months
40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current
total world energy use
2009
21GW
[158,000 in 2009]
2069
Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19
Year
Meg
aw
att
s
2000 20692009 2021 2033 2045 2057
Solar PV Growth @ 15% per year
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19
Year
Meg
aw
att
s
2000 21092009 2029 2049 2069 2089
Equal to total world consumption in 2009
59
TW
by
2075
59
TW
by
2119
What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?
Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year
Solar PV Growth @ 15% per year
2109
2089
Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,
[email protected] , http://Solar.gwu.edu/
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
Solar power beats thermal plants within their
construction lead time—at zero carbon price
1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2
PV NUCLEAR
Billion $ 2008 constant
Civilian Nuclear Power (1948 – 2009)
vs.
Solar Photovoltaics (1975-2009)
$4.2
$85
Federal Research & Development Funds
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
GIS Mapping the Solar
Potential of Urban Rooftops
100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,
WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century
Solar smart poly-grids
Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy
provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based
on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with
administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.
New York
California
USA minus CA & NYPer Capital
Electricity
Consumption
165 GW
Coal
Power
Plants
Californian‟s have
net savings of
$1,000 per family
[EPPs]
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from
revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting
lower cost efficiency over new power plants or
hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in China
to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California Energy
Commission, (916) 654-4930, [email protected] , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 2010–2020 for
developing countries and $48–60 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or
about half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
Breakdown by abatement type:
• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture)
• 6 Gt energy efficiency
• 4 Gt low carbon energy supply
CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020
ηeta
SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
Universal symbol for Efficiency
The best thing
about low-
hanging fruit
is that it keeps
growing back.
Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable
90% cost savings
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
end-use
efficiency
CCS
Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)
US current
average
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
2¢ 50
33
25
end-use
efficiency
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
2¢
end-use
efficiency
47
32
23
1¢: 93 kg CO2/$
Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced
per dollar spent on electrical services
Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for
Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
Mississippi River Delta
Yangtze River Pearl River
Small Land footprintOnly Wastewater as Feedstock
Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
CO2
ATS
Biodiesel
Fermenter(Clostridium butylicumC. Pasteurianum, etc.)
C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 + …
Biobutanol
EthanolAcetone
Lactic AcidAcetic Acid
Oil
ALGALBIOMASS
SolventExtraction
Nutrient Rich Water(Sewage, polluted river water)
+ atmospheric CO2(or power plant stack gases)
Clean waterLower N P P, higher O2 + pH
Less CO2 in atmosphere
Transesterification
OrganicFertilizer
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
Algae
butanol
biodiesel
Corn (ethanol)
Soy (biodiesel)
Estimated Biofuel Production
(gallons per acre or ha per year)
1520
500
----
2000
----
100
+
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
[3,770 gal/ha/yr][5,000 gal/ha/yr]
[1,250 gal/ha/yr]
[250 gal/ha/yr]
Biofuel Production from Algal
Turf Scrubber Biomass(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 3MW wind turbines
Platform footprint6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2
Total WindFarm spacing area
37,500 mi2
Still available for farming and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector40% USA total GHG emissions
95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930sAgain this century?