Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology: NOAA's multi-year plan to deploy the NASA Global Hawk aircraft for high impact weatherMichael L. BlackGary A. WickRobbie E. HoodNOAA UAS ProgramSHOUT

SHOUT Objectives

2

SHOUT Proposed Mission Plans

32014 Collaboration with NASA HS3August 26 to September 29, NASA WallopsUp to 15 total flightsNOAA input to mission design

2015 NOAA led MissionsSeptember November, NASA ArmstrongTropical cyclones (ATL, EPAC)and high impact weather targets (Pacific, Alaska)Single deployment location adds flexibility for potential targets- Atlantic, EPAC, Pacific, ArcticPossibility for 2 GH aircraft to be explored10-16 potential flights

2016 NOAA led MissionSeptember November, NASA Armstrong NASA EV-2 programs would lead to NASA collaborations and parnership with NOAA

PROPOSED SHOUT HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER MISSIONS

5Early period: Tropical cyclonesForecast improvements for track and intensityOption for both Atlantic and Pacific BasinsAtlantic tradeoff of deployment costs vs station time

Later period: High-impact storms affecting the continental US and Alaska weather:Coastal floodingAtmospheric riversForecast improvement for threats such as extreme precipitation and damaging windsTargeted lead times of 3-7 daysPotential contribution to satellite calibration/validation

HS3 201445th week in place on NASA scheduleAgreements drafted with both NASA Goddard and Armstrong

NOAA adding:Up to 5 flights240 dropsondesMission science support and guidanceReal-time data transmission/assimilation plannedTargeting methodology for missions possible

SHOUT ADAPTIVE OPERATIONAL STRATEGY6Tropical cyclones

SUNY group proposed to explore methodology (R. Torn, J. Dunion, Grad. Student)

Collaborations with AOML and ESRL NOAA Labs.

High-impact weather events

Zoltan Toth (ESRL) proposed to explore methodologies

Identification of high- impact weather threat cases

Fully automated Ensemble Transform sensitivity algorithm to identify sensitive areas

Produce optimized flight track to sample sensitive region for selected threat

PROPOSED NADINE FLT TRACK

*ACTUAL NADINE FLT TRACK

Typical AV-6 Flight PatternIP- ~ 600 nmi-

Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Patternwith approaching trough to the west

IP- ~ 600 nmi-

Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Patternwith SAL East of CenterIP- ~ 600 nmi-

Does a butterfly pattern (2 crossings) at the beginning of the pattern yield more symmetric coverage?

Does a butterfly pattern (multiple long leg crossings) yield more symmetric coverage and still provide adequate environmental sampling?

CONSIDERATIONS FOR NOAA-MODIFIED MISSIONS:8HS3 objectives and goals come first- especially with AV-1NOAA objectives are complimentary to those of NASAModifications proposed only when there is adequate time on station for changesTry to minimize alterations to the NASA proposed flight tracksWe would like to fly with NOAA IFEX missions (P3s and G-IV) when possibleSome coordinated portion of flight legs with NOAA P3s and/or the G-IV is beneficial to compare radarsNOAA slightly more interested with AV-6 flights (AVAPS) but would like to evaluate and, possibly, modify a couple of AV-1 flights, especially if NOAA is flyingCooperation and coordination will yield success for both agencies

To the new, brilliant italian GH scientist:8WE ARE COUNTING ON YOU TO PROVIDE GOOD HDVIS AND NIGHT TIME GH IMAGERY!!! :)S, posso fare(YES,I CAN DO)

Shows PREDICT G-V GPS dropsonde pattern (23 drops) >> numbers show estimated reduction in 48 h HWRF (AHW) model forecast of (left) Fionas meridional position and (right) axisymmetric tangential wind (proxy for intensity) due to assimilating wind, temperature, and specific humidity. The + indicates the Best track center;GPS dropsondes that produced the largest reduction in a) 48-h meridional position and b) axisymmetric tangential wind were designated as target locations(solid black circles);For this case, targets on Fionas SE side tended to be more optimal Ryan ran tests for the axisymmetric tangential wind case (b) >> all dropsondes assimilated vs no dropsondes assimilated vs only the targeted dropsondes (i.e. only solid black circles were assimilated) >> the 6 targeted obs produced nearly the same intensity as when all 23 obs were used;Plan >> employ output from a real-time ensemble data assimilation & forecast system to estimate optimal (track and intensity) targeting locations for the GH;Areas where more frequent sampling is optimal will be identified in real-time;Post mission >> data denial experiments will be run to assess if the targeted obs actually produced the most positive impact on the track and intensity forecasts;*