Migration, urban development and

settlement: global trends and possible

lessons for Moscow

Michael Keith, 5th December 2013 ,

Strelka Institute,

Moscow Urban Forum

Migration, urban dvelopment and

settlement:

1. Introduction

2. The consequences of migration

externalities?What difference does this make?

3. How does it make us think about the city

differently?

4. Conclusions: lessons for Moscow

5. Global conslusions: trade offs and principles

Based on Michael Keith (2013) ‘The Great Migration:Urban

Aspirations by in Glaeser, E. (ed) Rethinking Cities Washington DC:

World Bank

1. Introduction

“What will be remembered about the twenty-first century, more than anything else except perhaps

the effects of a changing climate, is the great, and final, shift of human population out of rural,

agricultural life and into cities. We will end this century as a wholly urban species.” Doug

Saunders, 2010

• India: By 2030

– 68 cities with population more than 1

million, up from 42 today (Europe has 35)

– 590 million people will live in India’s cities

– $1.2 trillion capital investment necessary to

meet projected demand

By 2025

• 225 cities in China will have one million people living in them

(Europe has 35 today)

• 350 million people will be added to China’s urban population – more

than the population of today’s United States

By 2030

• 1 billion people will live in China’s cities

Raj Thackeray and Bihari migrants in

Mumbai

European Islamophobia

Welfare externalities, migration, city

governance

“Are you willing to pay one million HK dollars

every 18 minutes to take care of mainland children

born in Hong Kong?”

“Hong Kongers have had enough!”

• Spatial mismatch of migration

externalities

• Temporal mismatch of migration

externalities

• The normative dimension of

externalities

Migration, metropolis, and the future of the city

• Economic imperatives of migration

• Economic costs of migration: migration

externalities

• 40% of Fortune 500 companies started

by migrants or their children

• Managing inclusive urban change:

competitiveness, liveability, resiliency,

and social inclusion

• The problems of populist opposition

• Differences of migration streams of

skilled, unskilled, irregular, family,

forced, students

2. The consequences of migration externalities?

Ed Glaeser

• “Our best plan for growth is to set our cities free”

• “Our cities are productive because they magnify

humankind’s greatest asset: our ability to learn from

the people around us. That asset will only become

more important in the years ahead, as innovation

becomes ever more important”

(Glaeser, 2011)

Externalities and the challenges of the

city commons

Nobel laureate identified 4 key questions in situations of migration related

change, social heterogeneity and intergenerational obligation

• - Is there general agreement on the rules related to who is included as a

member with both benefits and responsibilities?

• - Do the members have a shared understanding of what their mutual

responsibilities are as well as the formulae used for distribution of

benefits?

• - Are these rules considered legitimate and fair?

• - How are the rules transmitted from one generation to the next or to

those who migrate into the group? (Ostrom 2009:5)

• Analytically: the boundaries between ‘law’ and

‘economics’ in the management of migration

externalities. Implications for analytical and

normative social science.

• Practically: combining forms of technocratic skills in

shaping the city that is yet to come: value capture,

planning, architecture, security, rule, resilience

3. How does it make us conceptualise urban change

differently?

Migrant urbanisms: combinations and exemplifications

Shenzhen speed and the demons of density?

Upscaling Shenzhen

• From 200-300,000 in villages in 1978

to city of 18 million or so today

• By the year 2000, Shenzhen was

ranked nationally in China: fourth in

gross domestic product (GDP) among

Chinese large and medium size cities,

third in local fiscal income, first in total

export and import value, first in per

capita GDP, first in per capita

productivity

• From sanlai yibu (three imports and

one compensation) to moving

upmarket

The ‘floating population’ and urban China

• The nature of the hukou,

• The floating population

liudong renkou 流动人口

• At least two circuits of

migration,

• Geographical ranges of

migration

• Rural and urban property

rights

Migrant dwelling – the cheng zhong cun

• Villages in City (cheng zhong

cun)

• Residential handshake

apartments

• Nascent democratic

arrangements

• The cuns as joint stock

companies

• The dynamism of the cun

Chengzhongcun ‘villages in the city‘ migrant

‘handshake apartments’ woshou fang 握手房

Special economic zones and the

Shenzhen cheng zhong cun

• “Their main livelihood, as a

villager puts it, has shifted

from cultivating crops

(gengtian) to to cultivating

real estate (genguru)”

Siu, 2007, 331

Da Fen Cun

Chengzhongcun specialisation, stock companies differential

migrant integration and mediating welfare externalities

• Guan Lan – FDI negotiations

• Da Fen – oil panting city

• Xia Sha – specialism moving up

value chain, up market

• Scale, rule and czc: future planning

in Shenzhen

• Urban dynamics and city, district

(qu), cheng zhong cun relations

• Differential incorporation

• Metropolitan markets and

hierarchies

AND THE FLEXIBLE CITY

civillagety

“Solving Poor People’s Housing

Problem is Difficult”

Economy Housing; “Solving

Poor People’s Housing

Problem is Difficult. I, Du Pu,

Have Thought About It for

Over One Thousand Years.

Today, Finally It Will Come

True. This is Great!”

(Yuan Meng, 2006-08-15, China

News Network)

Variations in geographical scale differences and

metropolitan governance challenges: formalising

the informal

• Neighbourhood level and

churn eg Kumkapi, Istanbul

• Gecekondu - from informality

to formalisation

• Santiago – informal

settlements and formal

housebuilding

Strategic exceptionalism, inclusive migrant presence,

zoning and common pool resources: Belo Horizonte,

Brazil to tomorrow’s Texas?

• Brazil’s special zones of

social interest, mid 1980s

• Participatory voice and its

limits

• Texan colonias on Mexico-US

border

Scale jumping – Mumbai, Phnom Penh, Washington

• National Slum Dwellers (2 million

members) directly lobbying World

Bank re Mumbai transport

infrastructure development loan and

resettlement

• Phnom Penh – Solidarity for the

Urban Poor Federation and 2011

evictions from Boeung Kak lake

(World Bank $50-70 million loan

withheld)

• Breaking the analytial boundary

between international and national

migration

London scale: growing another city and

migration governance

Migrant rights and community belonging: policy trade

offs and accommodating London’s new city?

• Between recognition and redistribution

• Between deserving and undeserving poor

• Between the queue and the calculus of

need

• The pernicious influence of ‘liberal elites’

• Invisibility and irregularity - irregular

numbers in Londonbetween 184 and 425,

000 (Gordon et al; 2009, 51)

Governance challenges and temporalities of

migration settlement

• Arrival: and networks v programmes –

skilled labour markets and property

market effects

• Settlement and response

• Transnational and translocal links:

Bangladesh in London

• Transition from source to destination –

Athens, Naples, Istanbul, Cairo

• Challenging static / dynamic or

synchronic / diachronic ways of thinking

4. Lessons for Moscow and conclusions

Urban form and the migrant status

!!

Propiska (“record” ) legacies

place of residence / internal passports under

Soviet law from 1932 onwards (antecedents

in Tsarist Russia, when residency permits

were used to tie serfs to the land; propiska

system came into effect during the height of

Stalin’s programmes of industralisation and

collectivisation. Rgistration and recording the

movement of people within the Soviet Union

Skilled migrants and : (1) full Muscovite status;

(2) conditional subjects; and (3) resident

participants.

4. Lessons for Moscow and conclusions

Urban form and the periphery

• Moscow rapid growth (1939 4 million,

1979 8 million, present 12 million)

Microrayons of the periphery (standardised

housing regions)

• Socialist suburbanisation

• New urban periphery: challenges of post

socialist urban peripheries

5. Global conclusion: 1. Subject making and

metropolitan trade offs

• Subject making and migrant urbanisms

• Trades offs of

– Neighbourhood solidarity and permeability (as in

London)

– Land zoning and creativity (as in Belo Horizonte)

– Migrant rights and labour market flexibilities

– Rationing resources and welfare trade offs

– The interests of the history of the urban present and the

interests of the city yet to come

5. Global conclusion 2: Municipal governance

and principles of municipal migrant integration

United Kingdom Commission on Integration and Cohesion , 2007

1. Shared futures; a sense of becoming over being; shared identifies looking

forward that recognise diverse histories and identities looking backwards

2. A notion of citizenship that is fit for purpose for the 21st century and that

accommodates different geographical scales of local, regional, national and

transnational rights and responsibilities

3. An ethics of hospitality that recognises the value of the stranger and the

newcomer within a framework of mutuality and civility

4. A sense of visible social justice that appeals not only to equality of opportunity

and outcome but also to transparency of the decision making process