michael davies keynote
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Michael Davies of Endeavour Partners discusses the five forces impacting the next wave of mobileTRANSCRIPT
MassTLC Mobile Summit The future is already here…
Michael A M Davies Microsoft NERD Center, Cambridge, MA July 22, 2014
Mobile Summit Keynote
July 22, 2014 1
…it’s just not evenly distributed. Yet.
Mobile Summit Keynote
Endeavour Partners works with leaders in technology to anticipate the future, navigate through change, and to innovate better and more quickly
July 22, 2014 2
• Predict technology innovations • Identify/assess demand
opportunities • Forecast new markets • Understand how business
ecosystems will emerge/evolve • Make connections amongst these
developments • Anticipate the dynamics and
potential scenarios
• We have a unique approach and way of thinking together
• We combine a core team, all of whom have specialist expertise and relevant experience
• With a broad and diverse network of relationships and partnerships throughout the ecosystem, worldwide
What we do: Our services
Who we work for: Our clients
Why we are different
• Top tier device vendors, service providers, network operators and infrastructure vendors who are at the forefront of the mobile/digital ecosystem in software/computing/semiconductors, CE, content and e/m-commerce
• Businesses impacted by technology: retail/FMCG, transportation, financial services
• Investors in these business • Governments and policy makers
(DoJ and DG Comp)
• Determine implications of key scenarios
• Identify/evaluate strategic options • Make smart, timely decisions • Identify who to target, what to
offer, when, and which technology to pursue
• Determine who to partner with • Define how to create and capture
value
• Discover how to delight customers in new ways
• Develop breakthrough creative ideas
• Leverage partnerships and catalyze business ecosystems
• Instill agile approaches and enhance productivity
Mobile Summit Keynote
Our perspective – forward-looking, opinionated – and iconoclastic
July 22, 2014 3
(There may be some things I cannot say, some things I cannot share, or questions I cannot answer because of legal constraints or client confidentiality)
This is a forward-looking, iconoclastic, and even heretical
viewpoint
We are passionate about it and continue
to invest
We have an opinion and we are unafraid
to challenge conventional wisdom
We have a long track record of seeing
things others miss, recognizing shifts
earlier and spotting key turning points
and transitions
In particular we are writing a book now
because:
We now recognize a clear pattern of
innovation principles that drive success
Innovation is important; getting it right really matters
We are at an inflection point
Mobile Summit Keynote
We face a perfect storm of creative destruction
July 22, 2014 4
Smartphone penetration is 65% in the United States and >50% in many
developed countries 20%
40%
60%
80% 25% CAGR
LTE coverage now extends to 90%+ of Americans. Wi-Fi is
everywhere
Billions of people use the cloud
Cloud computing
Internet of things
Big data / machine learning
Smartphones
What happens when these five forces converge?
Smartphones
Pervasive connectivity
Cloud computing Widespread
wireless broadband
Mobile Summit Keynote
It’s a Nor’easter in MA: The eye of the storm
July 22, 2014 5
High tablet and
smartphone penetration in
MA
The 4 major networks have
almost completed
their MA LTE rollouts
Many cloud, big data, and
machine learning
companies in MA
A demographic shift is ongoing
Digital Natives (many of whom are students) are smartphone-centric, PC agnostic, relaxed
about security, grew up in a digital environment and are comfortable and
familiar with all things digital (your kids)
In Boston/Cambridge:
16,000 people/square mile
In Silicon Valley:
35 universities/100 square miles
4,000 people/square mile
1.5 universities/100 square miles
vs.
Smartphones
Pervasive connectivity
Cloud computing
Mobile Summit Keynote
July 22, 2014 6
What does this convergence mean?
Customers are empowered
Customers have instant access to information
anywhere, anytime, about anything (including sensing
and controlling)
The nature of work is changing Who is affected?
Transportation
Retail
Education
Healthcare
Then:
…and the customer-to-customer interaction has
changed
How does work get done?
With a modern & consistent user
experience with a seamless transition
across devices
Utilizing automation &
machine learning
Innovation is accelerating and becoming more
interactive
Mobile Summit Keynote
Consumers are becoming wizards…
July 22, 2014 7
…with easy access to:
Anytime, anywhere, instantly.
Data Information Knowledge Wisdom
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…and our products must keep pace
July 22, 2014 8
Mobile Summit Keynote
July 22, 2014 9
What are examples of this change?
Making travel simpler, easier and more reliable
Providing simple, easily adoptable payment methods
Automating our homes
Easily and quickly find a location to charge your electric vehicle
Amazon’s app/fire phone makes impulse buying easy… especially
when at a competitors store
Recording our health and wellness
Mobile Summit Keynote
Uber needed
July 22, 2014 10
Uber started by utilizing waste in the
transportation system (empty cars)
It is now creating new value as a
supplement to mass transit
And as an alternative to a
rental car
And as an alternative to car
ownership
Source: Above the Crowd by Bill Gurley, http://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/
fast, widespread connectivity,
and big data to flourish
smartphones with location services,
$100B market ...which grows the TAM
+$27B in the US alone $1.3T TAM
Mobile Summit Keynote
July 22, 2014 11
What do you do next as a business?
In the beginning… A few years ago… Today, and in the future…
No one worried about their mobile, digital, cloud, or
big data strategies
Mobile, digital, cloud and big data were side projects,
and not core to most companies strategies
Mobile, digital, cloud and big data must be pervasive in your companies strategy
Strategy Strategy
• Good/Easy/Fast vs. Bad/Hard/Slow • Business who are slow to adopt and innovate will perish • Instant access to information empowers customers and accelerates both the gain of the Good/Easy/Fast and the
decline of the Bad/Hard/Slow
Mobile Summit Keynote
The mobile ecosystem
July 22, 2014 12
Infrastructure
Networks
OS
Devices
High-end devices
Low-end devices
Infrastructure providers will be fine
Any OS’s besides iOS and Android will struggle to gain
market share
Players “stuck in the middle” will struggle as they need either
high volume or high margin
Either go simple/inexpensive or provide
added services
Mobile Summit Keynote
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…
July 22, 2014 13
Discovery is too hard
There is no standalone app ecosystem
There are lots of great tools
Winners are able to design across all platforms using big data, machine learning and
the cloud
Consumers expect a great user experience
Demand will remain high and accelerate
The bad news The good news
Mobile Summit Keynote
What does this mean for different developer segments?
July 22, 2014 14
Hexagons show % of total developer population in Q3 2014
Source: State of the Developer Nation Q3 2014, Vision Mobile
Strategic Insights for Global Technology Leaders Cambridge, MA – London, UK
Q & A