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JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 0 PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT MAY 2019

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Page 1: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 0

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF

MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA

SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

MAY 2019

Page 2: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 1

Content

AREA CERTIFIED FOR EXPORT TO USA BY MUNICIPALITY IN THE STATE OF MICHOACAN APPLIED

IN THIS STUDY 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT ............................................................................................. 2

DISTRIBUTION OF HECTARES – ACRES AND ORCHARDS BY METERS ABOVE THE SEA LEVEL .......... 3

DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE AND ORCHARDS BY STRATUM ............................................................. 4

DISTRIBUTION OF STRATA BY METERS ABOVE THE SEA LEVEL (HECTARES)..................................... 5

DISTRIBUTION OF STRATA BY METERS ABOVE THE SEA LEVEL (ACRES) ........................................... 6

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT (TONNES) .................................................. 7

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT (POUNDS) ................................................. 8

BALANCE OF PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY CRAZY FRUIT (TONNES) ............................. 9

TRENDS IN PRODUCTION BY MUNICIPALITY 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT GRAPH OF TONNES .......... 10

BALANCE OF PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY (POUNDS) ................................................. 11

TRENDS IN PRODUCTION BY MUNICIPALITY 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT GRAPH OF POUNDS .......... 12

TRENDS OF PRODUCTION BY STRATUM CRAZY FRUIT (TONNES – POUNDS) ................................. 13

TRENDS IN PERFORMANCE BY METERS ABOVE THE LEVEL OF THE SEA CRAZY FRUIT ................... 14

DENSITY OF TREES PER HECTARE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION ...................................................... 15

DENSITY OF TREES PER HECTARE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION (GRAPHIC) .................................... 16

DENSITY OF TREES PER ACRE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION ............................................................. 17

DENSITY OF TREES PER ACRE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION (GRAPHIC) .......................................... 18

PROFILES OF THE ORCHARD .............................................................................................................. 19

PICTURES OF TRAINING TO EQUIPMENT TO THE SAMPLING .......................................................... 24

PICTURES OF FIELD SAMPLING ......................................................................................................... 25

Page 3: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 2

AREA CERTIFIED FOR EXPORT TO USA BY MUNICIPALITY IN THE STATE OF MICHOACAN APPLIED IN THIS STUDY 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT

MUNICIPALITY SURFACE

HECTARES SURFACE

ACRES

ACUITZIO 1,741.64 4,303.69

APATZINGÁN-NUEVO URECHO 1,386.67 3,426.54

ARIO DE ROSALES 16,658.67 41,164.47

COTIJA DE LA PAZ 2,502.53 6,183.89

ERONGARICUARO-PATZCUARO-HUIRAMBA-QUIROGA-TZINTZUNTZAN

1,739.32 4,297.95

LOS REYES 6,522.70 16,117.94

MORELIA - MORELOS 764.18 1,888.33

NUEVO PARANGARICUTIRO 6,580.62 16,261.07

HIDALGO-TUXPAN-IRIMBO-CHARO-ZITÁCUARO 887.78 2,193.75

PARÁCUARO 1,004.19 2,481.41

PERIBÁN-CHARAPAN 8,850.65 21,870.43

PUREPERO-ZACAPU-TLAZAZALCA-JIMÉNEZ 2,429.71 6,003.94

SALVADOR ESCALANTE 14,658.91 36,222.96

TACÁMBARO 10,025.51 24,773.57

TANCÍTARO 23,643.09 58,423.35

TANGAMANDAPIO 2,433.61 6,013.58

TANGANCICUARO 956.04 2,362.43

TARETAN 1,217.90 3,009.50

TINGAMBATO 3,126.79 7,726.47

TINGÜINDÍN-TOCUMBO 5,386.94 13,311.42

TURICATO 4,783.59 11,820.51

URUAPAN 15,248.84 37,680.70

VILLA MADERO 1,259.93 3,113.35

ZIRACUARETIRO 3,968.91 9,807.39

TOTAL 137,778.72 340,458.63

Page 4: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 3

DISTRIBUTION OF HECTARES – ACRES AND ORCHARDS BY METERS ABOVE THE SEA LEVEL

M A. S. L. HECTARES ACRES ORCHARDS

LESS THAN 1600 12,101.05 29,902.35 4,329

1601-1700 10,881.76 26,889.41 3,786

1701-1800 12,506.41 30,904.01 4,429

1801-1900 15,378.93 38,002.16 5,049

1901-2000 17,063.02 42,163.64 5,366

2001-2100 18,685.09 46,171.86 5,551

2101-2200 18,133.47 44,808.78 5,105

2201-2300 17,214.98 42,539.14 5,004

2301 OR MORE 15,814.01 39,077.27 3,421

TOTAL 137,778.72 340,458.63 42,040

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

50,000.00

LESSTHAN1600

1601-1700

1701-1800

1801-1900

1901-2000

2001-2100

2101-2200

2201-2300

2301 ORMORE

HECTARES 12,101.05 10,881.76 12,506.41 15,378.93 17,063.02 18,685.09 18,133.47 17,214.98 15,814.01

ACRES 29,902.35 26,889.41 30,904.01 38,002.16 42,163.64 46,171.86 44,808.78 42,539.14 39,077.27

ORCHARDS 4,329 3,786 4,429 5,049 5,366 5,551 5,105 5,004 3,421

Page 5: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 4

DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE AND ORCHARDS BY STRATUM

STRATUM (1) SURFACE BY STRATUM HECTARES

SURFACE BY STRATUM

ACRES PERCENTAGE

ORCHARD NUMBER

STRATUM 1 40,222.50 99,391.96 29% 29,990

STRATUM 2 51,685.59 127,717.87 38% 9,611

STRATUM 3 35,008.26 86,507.29 25% 2,185

STRATUM 4 10,862.37 26,841.50 8% 254

TOTAL 137,778.72 340,458.63 100% 42,040

(1)

STRATUM 1: ORCHARDS WITH LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 7.41316 ACRES.

STRATUM 2: SURFACE ORCHARDS WITH MORE THAN 7.41316 ACRES TO 24.7105 ACRES.

STRATUM 3: SURFACE ORCHARDS WITH MORE THAN 24.7105 ACRES TO 74.1316 ACRES.

STRATUM 4: ORCHARDS WITH MORE THAN 74.1316 ACRES.

0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

60,000.00

80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

STRATUM 1 STRATUM 2 STRATUM 3 STRATUM 4

SURFACE BY STRATUM HECTARES 40,222.50 51,685.59 35,008.26 10,862.37

SURFACE BY STRATUM ACRES 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50

ORCHARD NUMBER 29,990 9,611 2,185 254

Page 6: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 5

DISTRIBUTION OF STRATA BY METERS ABOVE THE SEA LEVEL (HECTARES)

M A.S.L. SURFACE STRATUM

1

SURFACE STRATUM

2

SURFACE STRATUM

3

SURFACE STRATUM

4 SURFACE

LESS THAN 1600 4,242.37 4,603.17 2,812.93 442.58 12,101.05

1601-1700 3,647.69 4,656.47 2,153.68 423.92 10,881.76

1701-1800 4,305.15 5,239.05 2,159.28 802.93 12,506.41

1801-1900 4,817.02 6,085.43 3,389.49 1,086.99 15,378.93

1901-2000 5,026.96 6,674.61 3,960.71 1,400.74 17,063.02

2001-2100 5,296.92 6,898.80 5,200.73 1,288.64 18,685.09

2101-2200 4,877.98 6,234.26 5,243.09 1,778.14 18,133.47

2201-2300 4,906.11 5,812.45 4,692.99 1,803.43 17,214.98

2301 OR MORE 3,102.30 5,481.35 5,395.36 1,835.00 15,814.01

TOTAL 40,222.50 51,685.59 35,008.26 10,862.37 137,778.72

0.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00

SURFACE STRATUM 1 SURFACE STRATUM 2

SURFACE STRATUM 3 SURFACE STRATUM 4

Page 7: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 6

DISTRIBUTION OF STRATA BY METERS ABOVE THE SEA LEVEL (ACRES)

M A.S.L. SURFACE STRATUM

1

SURFACE STRATUM

2

SURFACE STRATUM

3

SURFACE STRATUM

4 SURFACE

LESS THAN 1600 10,483.12 11,374.68 6,950.90 1,093.64 29,902.35

1601-1700 9,013.64 11,506.39 5,321.86 1,047.53 26,889.41

1701-1800 10,638.26 12,945.97 5,335.70 1,984.08 30,904.01

1801-1900 11,903.12 15,037.43 8,375.61 2,686.01 38,002.16

1901-2000 12,421.89 16,493.32 9,787.13 3,461.30 42,163.64

2001-2100 13,088.97 17,047.31 12,851.28 3,184.30 46,171.86

2101-2200 12,053.75 15,405.19 12,955.96 4,393.88 44,808.78

2201-2300 12,123.26 14,362.88 11,596.63 4,456.37 42,539.14

2301 OR MORE 7,665.95 13,544.71 13,332.22 4,534.38 39,077.27

TOTAL 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 340,458.63

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

16,000.00

18,000.00

SURFACE STRATUM 1 SURFACE STRATUM 2

SURFACE STRATUM 3 SURFACE STRATUM 4

Page 8: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 7

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT (TONNES)

ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO

PRODUCTION CERTIFIED AREA TO

USA SEASON 2018–2019 3rd STAGE

CRAZY FRUIT

(TONNES)

197,135.74TONNES

210,021.11TONNES

184,250.36TONNES

LOWER LIMIT UPPER LIMIT

Page 9: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 8

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT (POUNDS)

ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO

PRODUCTION CERTIFIED AREA TO

USA SEASON 2018–2019 3rd STAGE

CRAZY FRUIT

(POUNDS)

434,609,903.16POUNDS

463,017,294.04POUNDS

406,202,512.27

POUNDS

LOWER LIMIT UPPER LIMIT

Page 10: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 9

BALANCE OF PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY CRAZY FRUIT (TONNES)

MUNICIPALITY SURFACE

HECTARES

TREND MEDIA PRODUCTION

TONNES

TREND MEDIA PRODUCTION

TONNES/ HECTARES

ACUITZIO 1,741.64 2,970.73 1.71

APATZINGÁN-NUEVO URECHO 1,386.67 2,327.36 1.68

ARIO DE ROSALES 16,658.67 21,280.61 1.28

COTIJA DE LA PAZ 2,502.53 3,577.07 1.43

ERONGARICUARO-PATZCUARO-HUIRAMBA-QUIROGA-TZINTZUNTZAN

1,739.32 2,818.48 1.62

LOS REYES 6,522.70 9,232.55 1.42

MORELIA - MORELOS 764.18 1,093.40 1.43

NUEVO PARANGARICUTIRO 6,580.62 7,046.56 1.07

HIDALGO-TUXPAN-IRIMBO-CHARO-ZITACUARO

887.78 983.08 1.11

PARÁCUARO 1,004.19 1,711.42 1.70

PERIBÁN-CHARAPAN 8,850.65 17,449.60 1.97

PUREPERO-ZACAPU-TLAZAZALCA-JIMÉNEZ 2,429.71 3,122.37 1.29

SALVADOR ESCALANTE 14,658.91 21,376.71 1.46

TACÁMBARO 10,025.51 12,114.62 1.21

TANCÍTARO 23,643.09 34,706.51 1.47

TANGAMANDAPIO 2,433.61 2,906.29 1.19

TANGANCICUARO 956.04 1,401.67 1.47

TARETAN 1,217.90 2,124.10 1.74

TINGAMBATO 3,126.79 4,539.37 1.45

TINGÜINDÍN-TOCUMBO 5,386.94 7,913.80 1.47

TURICATO 4,783.59 6,975.52 1.46

URUAPAN 15,248.84 23,049.32 1.51

VILLA MADERO 1,259.93 1,977.30 1.57

ZIRACUARETIRO 3,968.91 4,437.30 1.12

TOTAL 137,778.72 197,135.74 1.43

Page 11: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 10

TRENDS IN PRODUCTION BY MUNICIPALITY 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT GRAPH OF TONNES

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

SURFACE HECTARES

TREND MEDIA PRODUCTION TONNES

Page 12: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 11

BALANCE OF PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY (POUNDS AND

POUNDS/ACRE)

MUNICIPALITY SURFACE

ACRES

TREND MEDIA PRODUCTION

POUNDS

TREND MEDIA PRODUCTION

POUNDS /ACRE

ACUITZIO 4,303.69 6,549,338.59 1,521.80

APATZINGÁN-NUEVO URECHO 3,426.54 5,130,955.33 1,497.42

ARIO DE ROSALES 41,164.47 46,915,714.42 1,139.71

COTIJA DE LA PAZ 6,183.89 7,886,089.48 1,275.26

ERONGARICUARO-PATZCUARO-HUIRAMBA-QUIROGA-TZINTZUNTZAN

4,297.95 6,213,679.56 1,445.73

LOS REYES 16,117.94 20,354,288.68 1,262.83

MORELIA - MORELOS 1,888.33 2,410,534.39 1,276.54

NUEVO PARANGARICUTIRO 16,261.07 15,535,005.65 955.35

HIDALGO-TUXPAN-IRIMBO-CHARO-ZITACUARO 2,193.75 2,167,320.42 987.95

PARÁCUARO 2,481.41 3,773,035.26 1,520.52

PERIBÁN-CHARAPAN 21,870.43 38,469,783.07 1,758.99

PUREPERO-ZACAPU-TLAZAZALCA-JIMÉNEZ 6,003.94 6,883,647.57 1,146.52

SALVADOR ESCALANTE 36,222.96 47,127,578.66 1,301.04

TACÁMBARO 24,773.57 26,708,165.70 1,078.09

TANCÍTARO 58,423.35 76,514,757.51 1,309.66

TANGAMANDAPIO 6,013.58 6,407,272.71 1,065.47

TANGANCICUARO 2,362.43 3,090,153.40 1,308.04

TARETAN 3,009.50 4,682,828.24 1,556.02

TINGAMBATO 7,726.47 10,007,597.84 1,295.24

TINGÜINDÍN-TOCUMBO 13,311.42 17,446,942.58 1,310.67

TURICATO 11,820.51 15,378,389.26 1,300.99

URUAPAN 37,680.70 50,815,052.52 1,348.57

VILLA MADERO 3,113.35 4,359,200.33 1,400.16

ZIRACUARETIRO 9,807.39 9,782,572.00 997.47

TOTAL 340,458.63 434,609,903.16 1,276.54

Page 13: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 12

TRENDS IN PRODUCTION OF POUNDS/ACRE BY MUNICIPALITY 3rd STAGE CRAZY FRUIT (GRAPH)

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

1,600.00

1,800.00

TREND MEDIA PRODUCTION POUNDS /ACRE

Page 14: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 13

TRENDS OF PRODUCTION BY STRATUM CRAZY FRUIT (TONNES – POUNDS)

STRATUM SURFACE BY

STRATUM (HA.)

TRENDS OF PRODUCTION

(TONNES)

TONNES PER HECTARES

STRATUM 1 40,222.50 85,505.21 2.13

STRATUM 2 51,685.59 46,543.38 0.90

STRATUM 3 35,008.26 57,287.19 1.64

STRATUM 4 10,862.37 7,799.95 0.72

TOTAL 137,778.72 197,135.74 1.43

STRATUM SURFACE BY

STRATUM (ACRES)

TRENDS OF PRODUCTION

(POUNDS)

POUNDS PER ACRE

STRATUM 1 99,391.96 188,506,722.90 1,896.60

STRATUM 2 127,717.87 102,610,595.00 803.42

STRATUM 3 86,507.29 126,296,632.70 1,459.95

STRATUM 4 26,841.50 17,195,952.56 640.65

TOTAL 340,458.63 434,609,903.16 1,276.54

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

STRATUM1

STRATUM2

STRATUM3

STRATUM4

TONNES PER HECTARES 2.13 0.90 1.64 0.72

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

STRATUM 1 STRATUM 2 STRATUM 3 STRATUM 4

POUNDS PER ACRE 1,896.60 803.42 1,459.95 640.65

Page 15: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 14

TRENDS IN PERFORMANCE BY METERS ABOVE THE LEVEL OF THE SEA CRAZY FRUIT

M A.S.L. YIELD IN POUNDS

PER ACRE YIELD IN TONNES

PER HECTARES

LESS THAN 1600 1,739.70 1.95

1601- 1700 2,907.03 3.26

1701- 1800 2,103.22 2.36

1801- 1900 1,099.34 1.23

1901- 2000 1,205.87 1.35

2001- 2100 1,355.80 1.52

2101- 2200 694.05 0.78

2201- 2300 577.36 0.65

2301 OR MORE 730.41 0.82

- 500.00

1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00

LESSTHAN1600

1601-1700

1701-1800

1801-1900

1901-2000

2001-2100

2101-2200

2201-2300

2301OR

MORE

YIELD IN POUNDS PER ACRE 1,739.7 2,907.0 2,103.2 1,099.3 1,205.8 1,355.8 694.05 577.36 730.41

- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

LESSTHAN1600

1601-1700

1701-1800

1801-1900

1901-2000

2001-2100

2101-2200

2201-2300

2301OR

MORE

YIELD IN TONNES PER HECTARES 1.95 3.26 2.36 1.23 1.35 1.52 0.78 0.65 0.82

Page 16: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 15

DENSITY OF TREES PER HECTARE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION

MUNICIPALITY SURFACE HECTARE

AVERAGE OF TREES IN HECTARE

AVERAGE OF TREES IN

PRODUCTION BY HECTARE

ACUITZIO 1,741.64 157.86 153.36

APATZINGÁN-NUEVO URECHO 1,386.67 159.05 147.73

ARIO DE ROSALES 16,658.67 182.14 162.39

COTIJA DE LA PAZ 2,502.53 181.51 162.75

ERONGARICUARO-PATZCUARO-HUIRAMBA-QUIROGA-TZINTZUNTZAN

1,739.32 184.23 164.34

LOS REYES 6,522.70 178.79 162.41

MORELIA - MORELOS 764.18 151.24 141.49

NUEVO PARANGARICUTIRO 6,580.62 164.84 151.90

HIDALGO-TUXPAN-IRIMBO-CHARO-ZITÁCUARO 887.78 171.93 156.58

PARÁCUARO 1,004.19 164.51 151.63

PERIBÁN-CHARAPAN 8,850.65 160.49 147.89

PUREPERO-ZACAPU-TLAZAZALCA-JIMÉNEZ 2,429.71 160.14 148.14

SALVADOR ESCALANTE 14,658.91 162.22 151.52

TACÁMBARO 10,025.51 156.85 147.69

TANCÍTARO 23,643.09 147.60 139.04

TANGAMANDAPIO 2,433.61 147.60 138.94

TANGANCICUARO 956.04 149.37 139.58

TARETAN 1,217.90 148.26 139.63

TINGAMBATO 3,126.79 148.19 139.54

TINGÜINDÍN-TOCUMBO 5,386.94 148.21 139.74

TURICATO 4,783.59 147.23 138.89

URUAPAN 15,248.84 150.74 142.62

VILLA MADERO 1,259.93 174.01 160.42

ZIRACUARETIRO 3,968.91 154.26 143.67

TOTAL 137,778.72 166.38 148.69

Page 17: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 16

DENSITY OF TREES PER HECTARE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION (GRAPHIC)

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

AVERAGE OF TREES IN HECTARE

AVERAGE OF TREES IN PRODUCTION BYHECTARE

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PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 17

DENSITY OF TREES PER ACRE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION

MUNICIPALITY SURFACE

ACRES

AVERAGE TREES

PER ACRE

TREE AVERAGE PRODUCTION

PER ACRE

ACUITZIO 4,303.69 63.88 62.06

APATZINGÁN-NUEVO URECHO 3,426.54 64.37 59.78

ARIO DE ROSALES 41,164.47 73.71 65.72

COTIJA DE LA PAZ 6,183.89 73.45 65.86

ERONGARICUARO-PATZCUARO-HUIRAMBA-QUIROGA-TZINTZUNTZAN

4,297.95 74.55 66.51

LOS REYES 16,117.94 72.35 65.73

MORELIA - MORELOS 1,888.33 61.21 57.26

NUEVO PARANGARICUTIRO 16,261.07 66.71 61.47

HIDALGO-TUXPAN-IRIMBO-CHARO-ZITÁCUARO 2,193.75 69.58 63.37

PARÁCUARO 2,481.41 66.58 61.36

PERIBÁN-CHARAPAN 21,870.43 64.95 59.85

PUREPERO-ZACAPU-TLAZAZALCA-JIMÉNEZ 6,003.94 64.81 59.95

SALVADOR ESCALANTE 36,222.96 65.65 61.32

TACÁMBARO 24,773.57 63.47 59.77

TANCÍTARO 58,423.35 59.73 56.27

TANGAMANDAPIO 6,013.58 59.73 56.23

TANGANCICUARO 2,362.43 60.45 56.49

TARETAN 3,009.50 60.00 56.51

TINGAMBATO 7,726.47 59.97 56.47

TINGÜINDÍN-TOCUMBO 13,311.42 59.98 56.55

TURICATO 11,820.51 59.58 56.21

URUAPAN 37,680.70 61.00 57.72

VILLA MADERO 3,113.35 70.42 64.92

ZIRACUARETIRO 9,807.39 62.43 58.14

TOTAL 340,458.63 67.33 60.17

Page 19: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 18

DENSITY OF TREES PER ACRE AND TREES IN PRODUCTION (GRAPHIC)

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

AVERAGE TREES PER ACRE

TREE AVERAGE PRODUCTION PERACRE

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PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 19

PROFILES OF THE ORCHARD

HUMIDITY SOURCE PERCENTAGE

IRRIGATION 40%

TEMPORAL 60%

TOTAL 100%

TYPE OF IRRIGATION PERCENTAGE

DRIP 30%

MICRO SPRINKLING 63%

ROLL IRRIGATION 3%

OTHER 4%

TOTAL 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

IRRIGATION TEMPORAL

PERCENTAGE 40% 60%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

DRIP MICROSPRINKLING

ROLLIRRIGATION

OTHER

PERCENTAGE 30% 63% 3% 4%

Page 21: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 20

WATER SOURCE PERCENTAGE

PERFORATION 14%

CANAL 6%

CARCAMO 4%

WATER POT 57%

OTHER 19%

TOTAL 100%

PRUNING EVIDENCE PERCENTAGE

REJUVENATED 5%

CLARIFY 27%

NO PRUNING 68%

TOTAL 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

PERFORATION CANAL CARCAMO WATER POT OTHER

PERCENTAGE 14% 6% 4% 57% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

REJUVENATED CLARIFY NO PRUNING

PERCENTAGE 5% 27% 68%

Page 22: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 21

FIELD TOPOGRAPHY PERCENTAGE

STRONG SLOPE > 45° 5%

MODERATE SLOPE >25° <45° 34%

FLAT GROUND 46%

IRREGULAR TERRAIN 15%

TOTAL 100%

PLANTATION SISTEM PERCENTAGE

REAL SQUARE 56%

TRIANGLE 44%

TOTAL 100%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

STRONG SLOPE >45°

MODERATESLOPE >25° <45°

FLAT GROUND IRREGULARTERRAIN

PERCENTAGE 5% 34% 46% 15%

0%

10%20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

REAL SQUARE TRIANGLE

PERCENTAGE 56% 44%

Page 23: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 22

CROP TYPE PERCENTAGE

ORGANIC 8%

CONVENTIONAL 92%

TOTAL 100.00%

DISASTERS PERCENTAGE

FROST 11%

HAIL 16%

STRONG WINDS 6%

WITHOUT DISASTERS 67%

TOTAL 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

ORGANIC CONVENTIONAL

PERCENTAGE 8% 92%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

FROST HAIL STRONGWINDS

WITHOUTDISASTERS

PERCENTAGE 11% 16% 6% 67%

Page 24: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 23

PERCENTAGE OF TREES IN PRODUCTION

(RANGE) PERCENTAGE OF

ORCHARDS

LESS THAN 50% 2%

51 a 70% 2%

71 a 80% 3%

81 a 85% 2%

86 a 90% 5%

91 a 95% 9%

96 a 100% 77%

TOTAL 100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

LESSTHAN50%

51 a70%

71 a80%

81 a85%

86 a90%

91 a95%

96 a100%

PERCENTAGE OF ORCHARDS 2% 2% 3% 2% 5% 9% 77%

Page 25: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 24

PICTURES OF TRAINING TO EQUIPMENT TO THE SAMPLING

Page 26: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 25

PICTURES OF FIELD SAMPLING

Page 27: MHAIA Estimation of Production 2018-2019 3rd Stage · 2019-05-14 · surface by stratum acres 99,391.96 127,717.87 86,507.29 26,841.50 orchard number 29,990 9,611 2,185 254. probabilistic

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA SEASON 2018-2019 3rd STAGE - CRAZY FRUIT

JESUS JASSO AGUILAR - BACHELOR OF STATISTIC 26