mexico hydrocarbons supplement 1 - hss 2013

8/9/2019 Mexico Hydrocarbons Supplement 1 - HSS 2013

1/38

Trade Defcit


2/38

Its good

Trade defcit boosts GDP and cuts unemployment

Griswold ‘5 (Daniel, Director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies, master'sdegree in the Politics of the World Economy from the London School of Economics., CAT Institute, !"ad

#e$s% on the Trade De&cit ften eans (ood #e$s on the Economy, htt)*++$$$.cato.org+)ulications+free-trade-ulletin+ad-ne$s-trade-de&cit-often-means-good-ne$s-economy)rint , /

Worries persist that the record U! trade defcit is weighing downthe nation"s economy# depressing output# and sending $obso%erseas. Those $orries ha0e only increased in recent $ee1s as 0ariousmeasures of the de&cit ha0e reached ne$ records. n Decemer 23, theCommerce De)artment announced that the monthly trade de&cit in goodsand ser0ices for ctoer had reached a record 455.5 illion,627 and t$o dayslater the de)artment announced that the 8.S. current account de&cit for thethird 9uarter had reached 42:3.2 illion,6;7 also a record. The t$o relatedde&cits are 0irtually certain to set annual records a))roaching 4:


3/38

reality, trade defcits tend to e )ro-cyclical, growing when the economye0pands and contracting when the economy slows or slips intorecession. The trade defcit impro%ed6 during each of the threerecessions the nation has suered in the )ast 9uarter century in2B24ndashB;, 22, and ;


4/38

Dodd 7ran*


5/38

Dodd 'ran* is good

Dodd 7ran* *ey to employer protection8onc9al /:;3+2> @i1e, $riter at Washington )ost, Does Dodd-Hran1 $or1

uote fromGeather Sla01in CorJo, the Senior Legal and Policy Ad0isor for theAHL-CI Kce of In0estment.We as1ed 2: e?)erts to &nd out,htt)*++$$$.$ashington)ost.com+logs+$on1log+$)+;+ @i1e, $riter at Washington )ost, Does Dodd-Hran1 $or1uote from "rad iller - a former memer of the Gouse Hinancial Ser0ices

Committee, $here he led eorts to )rohiit )redatory mortgage lending andcreate the CHP". Ge is no$ a senior fello$ at the Center for AmericanProgress and of counsel to the la$ &rm of (rais M Ells$orth LLPWe as1ed 2:e?)erts to &nd out,htt)*++$$$.$ashington)ost.com+logs+$on1log+$)+;+


6/38

Dodd 7ran* *ey to U! econ. stability8onc9al /:;3+2> @i1e, $riter at Washington )ost, Does Dodd-Hran1 $or1uote from Noert #ichols, )resident and CE of the Hinancial Ser0icesHorum- !We as1ed 2: e?)erts to &nd out,htt)*++$$$.$ashington)ost.com+logs+$on1log+$)+;+


7/38

Dodd 'ran* De'ense

Dodd 7ran* doesn"t hurt ban*s. proft increases pro%e Eglesias /:1F+2> @atthe$, senior $riter, Des)ite Whining Aout

Negulations, American "an1s Are a1ing Enormous Pro&ts,htt)*++$$$.slate.com+logs+moneyo?+;+oose /:1F+2> @e0in, senior $riter + editor !Neminder * Don=t )ayattention to Wall Street=s Whines Aout Negulation%#

htt)*++nymag.com+daily+intelligencer+;+ule. @The di)s on the gra)h in ;


8/38

ceiling./ And they didn't suer after the Hed announced in ;


9/38

A;N Add on

Dodd.7ran* was wai%ed once in ;31;. eans repeal isine%itable# we post.date

attingly# 5.H1.;31;A Bew Eor* &ity ban* with 135 billion in assets would be the solebenefciary o' a Dodd.7ran* Act e0emption appro%ed today by the

ouse 7inancial !er%ices &ommittee. Emigrant "an1 as1ed la$ma1ers onthe committee to a))ro0e a change to the ;2, ;


10/38

eg


11/38

eg Jad


12/38

Oow now

American hegemony is ending the recession pushes ito%er the brin*

Oayne 1; @Christo)her Assosiate Professor at Te?as AM 8ni0ersity Thistime it=s real* the end of uni)olarity and the Pa? Americanahtt)*++onlinelirary.$iley.com+doi+2


13/38

At the same time, Pa0 Americana also is winding down. The United!tates can manage this relati%e decline e?ecti%ely o%er the ne0tcouple o' decades only i' it frst ac*nowledges the 'undamentalreality o' decline The )rolem is that many Americans, )articularly amongthe elites, ha0e emraced the notion of American e?ce)tionalism $ith suchfer0or that they can=t discern the $orld transformation occurring efore their

eyes. "ut history mo%es 'orward with an ine0orable 'orce# and it doesnot stop to grant special e0emptions to nations based on past goodwor*s or the restrained e?ercise of )o$er during times o' hegemony. Sois it $ith the 8nited States. The $orld has changed since those heady daysfollo$ing World War II, $hen the United !tates )ic1ed u) the mantle of$orld leadershi) and 'ashioned a world system durable enough to lastnearly se%enty years. It has also changed signi&cantly since thoseremar1ale times from 2B to 22, $hen the So0iet 8nion im)loded and itsashes &lled the American consciousness $ith )o$erful notions of nationale?ce)tionalism and the in&nite uni)olar moment of e0erlasting 8.S.

hegemony. "ut most discerning Americans 1no$ that history ne%er ends#

that change is always ine%itable # that nations and ci%ili9ations riseand 'all, that no era can last 'ore%er. #o$ it can e seen that the postWorld War II era# romantici9ed as it has been in the minds o' somany Americans# is the ld rderand it is an ld rder in crisis, $hichmeans it is nearing its end. istory# as always# is mo%ing 'orward.

Buclear proli'eration has already decreased U! hegemony=an der Oinden# 2 @Garry, Professor at "utler 8ni0ersity, the treasurer ofthe Nadical Philoso)hy Association and is currently the editor of the NadicalPhiloso)hy Ne0ie$College of Lieral Arts M Sciences, !"arac1 ama, Nesort to Horce, and 8.S.ilitary Gegemony,% Scholarshi) and )rofessional $or1 from the Lieral Arts

and SciencesAt "utler 8ni0ersity, htt)*++$e.cerritos.edu+tstolJe+SitePages+RanX;


14/38

their own weapons in an e?ort to ensure national security. Presidentennedy $arned of the danger of nuclear )roliferation in 2:>* I as1 you tosto) and thin1 for a moment $hat it $ould mean to ha0e nuclear $ea)ons inso many hands, in the hands of countriesZthere $ould e no rest for anyonethen, no staility, no real securityZthere $ould only e the increased chanceof accidental $ar, and an increased necessity for the great )o$ers to in0ol0e

themsel0es in $hat other$ise $ould e local conFicts@Cirincione, ;


15/38


16/38

"rea1 this do$n into $hat ha))ens in the long term 0ersus the short term. 0er the long run, &hina will e0entuallyapproach the United !tates in terms o' relati%e power and inuence. This is notterrily sur)rising, ho$e0er Joth pri%ate. and public.sector analysts ha%e beenma*ing this prediction in recent years . Indeed, the rise of China is a 1ey theme that runs through the#ational Intelligence Council's (loal Trends ;


17/38

Impact de'ense

U! hegemony 'ails. Borth 8orea pro%esayes# F @Peter, a Professor of International Nelations, School of (loal,

8ran and Social Studies, Noyal elourne Institute of Technology 8ni0ersity,Australia and Director, #autilus Institute in "er1eley, California, ctoer;B/Three U! administrations ha%e 'ailed to a%oid Borth 8orean brea*out'rom the Bon.Proli'eration Treaty and a ga)ing hole in the IAEA safeguards system. Buclearwar is once again concei%able in 8orea after a rief interlude in the early 2


18/38

as (ermany and Oa)an on the other ] had all ut 'ailed. "y ;


19/38

logistics hus,% and de)loying aircraft against China Don=t as1. Washington has %ital interests toprotect# but not all o' its interests are %ital De'ending Americanterritory# liberties# and people at home is %ital@ ensuring dominantAmerican inuence hal' a world away is not And doing the latter atacceptable cost will grow e%er more dicult. "y s)ending a fraction of the 8nited States=defense udget, "eiing is constructing a military ale to deter 8.S. inter0ention against China. To o%ercome this 'orce

Washington will ha%e to spend 'ar more L money which it does notha%e. With China on the mo0e, the DD oser0es that !the 8nited States continues to $or1 $ith our allies and friends in the region tomonitor these de0elo)ments and adust our )olicies accordingly.% "ut the resulting )olicy adustment should e reducing 8.S. international

amitions rather than increasing military s)ending. Washington should replace dominance withde'ense as the core o' its 'oreign policy


20/38


21/38

e?am)les. To e sure, states can ne0er e certain of other states=intentions.F1 There are a couple o' reasons# howe%er# why thisuncertainty increases in unipolarity# e%en when the unipole appearsto be determined to maintain the status +uo Hirst, other statescannot be certain that the unipole will always pursue nonre. %isionistgoals This is particularly problemsatic because unipolarity

minimi9es the structural constraints on the unipole"s grand strategy.As WaltJ $rites, !E0en if a dominant )o$er eha0es $ith moderation,restraint, and forear- ance, $ea1er states $ill $orry aout its futureeha0ior. . . The absence o' serious threats to American securitygi%es the United !tates wide latitude in ma*ing 'oreign policychoices.%:; Second, unipolarity ta*es away the principal tool throughwhich minor powers in bipolar and multipolar systems deal withuncertainty about great power intentionsLalliances with other greatpowers Whereas in these other systems minor powers can# in principle#attenuate the e?ects o' uncertainty about great power intentionsthrough e0ternal balancing# in a unipolar world no great powersponsor is present by deanition. In eect, the systemic imalance of

)o$er magniaes uncertainty aout the uni)ole=s intentions.

U! e0pansion in hegemony leads to bac*lash it"s a ne%erending war7rost 1H @Paul Program Kcer at the Institute of Study of Di)lomacy8nintended Conse9uences of an E?)anded 8S military )resence in theuslim World htt)*++isd.georgeto$n.edu+&les+military.)df /++GSDo$nsides of e?)anded military )resence A numer of )artici)ants argued that e?)anded military

)resence in the uslim $orld has a numer of do$nsides for the 8.S. Hirst# se%eral membersargued that by occupying Ira+# we ha%e ta*en a step down aslippery slope6 o' empire# while lac*ing the human and politicalcapital to sustain or e%en complete what we ha%e begun in Ira+ andA'ghanistan. ne memer commented that the U! is acting li*e an angrygiant6 and predicted that at some point global sentiment toward theU! will turn 'rom 'ear and respect to resentment# dissipating ourability to inuence and inspire throughout the globe Another memercountered that while the U! does not see* empire# it does see* theability to con'ront and deal with threats where%er they appear#which is a reason 'or de%ising ways to send troops to 'araway placeswithout necessarily being stationed here permanently. Second, somememers argued that the current approach is too hea%ily geared toward anunending# worldwide war against terror in which we will ne%er becompletely success'ul Uet threats and )rolems other than terrorism remain. Prior toSe)temer 22, the administration $as focused on China as an emerging threat.Worrisome trends of failing

states in Africa and Latin America continue to multi)ly. Go$e0er, we seem f0ated onpreparing 'or possible smaller wars in the arc o' instability6 thatruns 'rom the Andean region in the !outhern emisphere throughBorth A'rica to the iddle -ast and into Southeast Asia. As a result# our coursecould be in a state o' continuous u0# dri%en by e%ents as %iewedthrough the single lens o' countering terrorism U! militarydeployment in uslim nations relates to the larger debate about

http://isd.georgetown.edu/files/military.pdfhttp://isd.georgetown.edu/files/military.pdf


22/38

U! hegemony and a possible realignment o' power !e%eralparticipants %oiced concern that the reality o' U! hegemony# whencombined with a certain arrogance o' tone and style# led to thetrans.Atlantic dispute o%er Ira+# and could spawn the 'orming o'alignments o' di?erent states opposing U! hegemony. ne memersuggested that the administration should more readily ac1no$ledge allied coo)eration )articularly from

!old% Euro)e in la$ enforcement and intelligence sharing against terrorist grou)s. Se0eral memersargued that #AT could )lay a strong role in the )ost-conFict reconstruction of Ira9, in addition to eing aforce for staility throughout the region, if the 8.S. can $in o0er the most inFuential memers in the

rganiJation. Another )artici)ant argued that, despite the trans.Atlantic crisis o%erIra+# the Jush team has been able to maintain 'airly good relationswith all o' the world"s ma$or powers This has enabled theadministration to press 'orward on many ma$or issues such as Borth8orea and the iddle -ast peace process. In sum, as another )artici)ant noted, it isstill )ossile for the 8.S. to )ursue oth lieral internationalism and realism at the same time.

U! hegemony decline is goodThe -conomist# 1; @Heruary ;nd, !The $orld order* The sta1es ofAmerican hegemony,% The Economist,htt)*++$$$.economist.com+logs+democracyinamerica+;


23/38

guys ther $ealthy, lieral democracies can ha0e huge na0ies, too, if $e'd let them. r I1enerry's alleged Q)leasant illusionQ loo1s)leasantly solid to me. r agan gi0es it his all arguing that the Qrise of the restQ does not mean America's not still undis)uted 1ing of the hill.

"ut Nosa "roo1s, a (eorgeto$n la$ )rofessor, is right that the s1y$ard traectory of the "NICs does mean AmericaKs

relati%e inuence has waned# and that thatKs a happy de%elopment *

6A7s Neagan recogniJed, a decline in relati%e American power is a good thing #

not a bad thing L i' we can turn rising states into solid allies. NememerQ(ulli0er's Tra0elsQ True, it $asn't much fun for (ulli0er to e the little guy in the land of "rodingnagian giants, ut it $as e0en less fun to ea giant among the Lilli)utians. Li1e (ulli0er, America $ill )ros)er most if $e can surround oursel0es $ith friendly )eer and near-)eer states. They gi0e us larger mar1ets and im)ro0e urden-sharing none of the gloal )rolems that ede0il us can e sol0ed y the 8nited States

alone. The global public goods r 8agan rightly pri9esLpeace# stability#unimpeded trade routesLwill be more # not less secure i' the burdeno' their pro%ision is more broadly distributed And America is moreli*ely to remain worth emulating were it to redirect some signifcantportion o' the trillions spent maintaining its hegemony into moreproducti%e uses

U! hegemony is bad. empirics pro%e

ashim# 5 @[a1aria, Sta $riter, ay ;th

, alaysiaini,htt)*++$$$.malaysia1ini.com+letters+>:3B/I refer to the letter What's so ad aout 8S gloal hegemony 7rom one perspecti%e# the to))ling o f the Talianand "aathist regimes in Afghanistan and Ira9 res)ecti0ely y the U!-led forces can be seen in positi%elight ecause the $ars ha0e eecti0ely ended t$o reactionary and murderous regimes. owe%er# the U! is stillnot blameless or 'aultless. The rise and consolidation o' the Talibanwas the result o' the political irresponsibility o' the U! which # a'terthe A'ghan war against the !o%iet occupation ended in 12Q2 withthe pullout o' the !o%iet troops# simply wal*ed away and abandonedthe country allowing it to degenerate into anarchy. The 8S also did nothing eecti0e tosto) Pa1istan's Inter-Ser0ices Intelligence @ISI/ from continuing to collaorate $ith the Talian and ma1ing use of the latter as a surrogate to

gain )olitical inFuence and control of )ost-$ar Afghanistan. We must also not 'orget that theTaliban # as a faction of the anti-So0iet 'muahidden', was trained and armed by# among

other countries# the U!. In the )rocess, the &IA also moti%ated theKmu$ahiddenK with 'anatical and militant Islamism which was belie%edto be the psychological antidote to !o%ietKs KgodlessK communism Seenin this conte?t# the U! had reaped what it sowed. In Ira9's case, the secular "aathist regime of SaddamGussein $as also an American ally in the latter's strategic res)onse to the 2 Islamic Ne0olution in Iran. Saddam deser0es no sym)athyecause he $as an o))ortunistic collaorator of the 8S in the 2Be9a Pahla%i regime 'rom 125H to 12/Q Hrom these t$o

e?am)les # we can see that the U! is not as benign and altruistic as some

would li*e us to belie%e . Jehind or beneath U!Ks rhetoric o'

K'reedomK and KdemocracyK# Khuman rightsK are its national sel'.interests in securing cheap supplies o' natural resources# opening up'oreign mar*ets 'or its goods and ser%ices and using some countriesor groups as pawns to destabilise# control# inuence or con'rontother countries and groups What's so ad aout U! gloal hegemony It is essentially adecause it cannot thri0e and )ros)er $ithout ha0ing to create enemies all the time and also ecause it can efriend you at one moment anddum) and 0ilify the ne?t as an 'enemy of ci0ilisation' $hen your strategic 0alue has e?)ired.


24/38

&hina impact turn

-0pansion o' U! heg spar*s war with &hinaOayne ;31; (Christo)her, Ph.D, International Nelations )rofessor and Gead chair ofIntelligence and #ational Security at Te?as AM 8ni0ersity=s (eorge G. W. "ush School of(o0ernment and Pulic Ser0ice., The (loal Po$er Shift from West to East* The #ationalInterest, htt)*++$$$.langaa-r)cig.net+The-(loal-Po$er-Shift-from-West.html, 3-3-;


25/38


26/38

Proli' impact turn

egemony is 'ailing now# causing proli'. a mo%e away'rom nuclear hegemony would be good

Bau# 2 @Genry N., Professor of Political Science and International Aairs,(eorge Washington 8ni0ersity, !Is American Gegemony "ad or Oust "etterthan Alternati0es% International Studies Ne0ie$, 22 2B3]2B:YYYYYY,htt)*++onlinelirary.$iley.com+store+2


27/38

is a cause o' nuclear proli'eration and that ending this hegemony

might be a necessary condition 'or halting this proli'eration in itstrac*s and mo%ing toward a gradual global abolition o' nuclearweapons. S1e)tics may e0en see their )lea for the aolition of nuclear $ea)ons as an attem)t to )re0ent that the s)read of nuclear$ea)ons among some countries in the South $ill restrain 8.S. military hegemony.


28/38

A; eg IO


29/38


30/38

to tighten the state's e?clusi0e control o0er e?ico's )etroleum. Aside from a minor addition to includenuclear energy, that sentence has een unchanged since President Adolfo Lo)eJ ateos made it e0enmore e?)licit in 2:< after the Cuan Ne0olution. QNegarding )etroleum and solid, li9uid or gaseoushydrocarons ... neither concessions nor contracts $ill e granted, nor $ill any that ha0e een granted)ersist and the #ation $ill carry out the e?)loitation of these )roducts in the terms indicated y the

res)ecti0e regulatory statute,Q it reads. Without changing it, e?)erts say, Pena Bieto willnot be able to o?er lucrati%e contracts to companies whose

e0pertise in deep water e0ploration and shale felds could turnaround a ;5 percent slide in oil production o%er the past decade. Pena#ieto's Institutional Ne0olutionary Party, or PNI, insists e?ico's oil $ill remain )ro)erty of the state. "ut itaims to create a )latform for maor in0estors $ith a comination of ni)s and tuc1s to the constitution anddeft legal $or1. QThe $orld is not going to $ait for us if $e don't do an energy reform that guarantees thecountry's energy security,Q said Oa0ier Tre0ino, an energy e?)ert in Congress from the PNI. Qy )ersonal

0ie$ is that we need changes to article ;/ o' the constitution, and articles ;5and ;B,Q he added. T$ea1s to article ;5 could gi0e Peme? more o)erational inde)endence, $hile

alterations to ;B could ease curs on )ri0ate ca)ital in the )etrochemical industry. Jy modi'yingarticle ;/# the go%ernment would open the door to ris* contractswhich allow pri%ate companies to participate directly in thee0ploration and production o' crude oil

ec0ican consititutional re'orm is a prere+ to the entirea?. regulations pre%ent international %entures


31/38

Persian Gul'

!XU< !


32/38

producer by ;3;3 &urrent U! oil imports o' around 2 million to 13million barrels a day are pro$ected to 'all to around 4 million a daywithin one decade If that does occur, $hat $ould it mean for 8.S. foreign)olicy In )articular, could America withdraw 'rom the oil.rich PersianGul')

U! is becoming energy dependent now. multiple warrantsThompson 1; @ Loren, 2;+>+2;, $riter on national security for Hores,!What Ga))ens When America #o Longer #eeds iddle East il%htt)*++$$$.fores.com+sites+lorenthom)son+;


33/38


34/38

successi0e energy crises engineered y memers of the rganiJation of Petroleum E?)orting Countriesalerted Washington to its gro$ing de)endence on foreign oil. So the Pentagon ecame accustomed toassuring the security of oil )assing through the Strait of GormuJ, maintaining a continuous na0al )resencein and around the (ulf $hile )eriodically de)loying ground forces to )rotect fragile oil-)roducing states.

#othing lasts fore0er, though, and no$ a combination o' energy independence andeconomic necessity may lead Washington to become more insular inits outloo*# the same $ay London did after the $ar. With less need for foreign oil and an increasingly

urgent re9uirement to rein in federal orro$ing, it doesn"t ta*e a genius to fgure outwhere the political system will be inclined to cut spending It $ill e indistant )laces that ha0e ceased ha0ing an im)act on ho$ elections turn out. With the )ros)ect of PEC-induced energy shortages o the tale, at least in America, )olitical leaders are sure to egin as1ing $hythe 8.S. #a0y is carrying the urden of ma1ing sure China has secure sources of oil. The ans$ers they getfrom Pentagon strategists aren=t li1ely to e $ell recei0ed in a nation $here economic gro$th has slo$edto a cra$l due in no small )art to Chinese mercantilism. So there=s a real )ossiility that Washington $ill gothrough the same East-of-SueJ deate that London did in the 2:


35/38

in these %ital waterways might paraly9e international commerce andtrigger a global recession (or worse, All of this should e )ainfully o0ious and so ruleout such a )ossiility -- and yet the li*elihood o' such a clash occurring has beenon the rise in recent months, as China and its neighors continue to ratchet u) the ellicosity of theirstatements and olster their military forces in the contested areas. Washington's continuing statementsaout its ongoing )lans for a Q)i0otQ to, or QrealancingQ of, its forces in the Paci&c ha0e only fueledChinese intransigence and intensi&ed a rising sense of crisis in the region. Leaders on all sides continue toaKrm their country's in0iolale rights to the contested islands and 0o$ to use any means necessary to

resist encroachment y ri0al claimants. In the meantime, &hina has increased the're+uency and scale o' its na%al maneu%ers in waters claimed by Mapan# =ietnam# and the Philippines, further enaming tensions in the region.stensily, these dis)utes re0ol0e around the 9uestion of $ho o$ns a constellation of largely uninhaitedatolls and islets claimed y a 0ariety of nations. In the East China Sea, the islands in contention are calledthe Diaoyus y China and the Sen1a1us y Oa)an. At )resent, they are administered y Oa)an, ut othcountries claim so0ereignty o0er them. In the South China Sea, se0eral island grou)s are in contention,including the S)ratly chain and the Paracel Islands @1no$n in China as the #ansha and \isha Islands,res)ecti0ely/. China claims all of these islets, $hile Rietnam claims some of the S)ratlys and Paracels."runei, alaysia, and the Phili))ines also claim some of the S)ratlys. Har more is, of course, at sta1e than

ust the o$nershi) of a fe$ uninhaited islets. The seabeds surrounding them arebelie%ed to sit atop %ast reser%es o' oil and natural gas $nershi) of theislands $ould naturally confer o$nershi) of the reser0es -- something all of these countries des)erately

desire. Power'ul 'orces o' nationalism are also at wor*N $ith rising )o)ularfer0or, the Chinese elie0e that the islands are )art of their national territory and any other claimsre)resent a direct assault on China's so0ereign rights the fact that Oa)an -- China's rutal in0ader andoccu)ier during World War II -- is a ri0al claimant to some of them only adds a )o$erful tinge of 0ictimhoodto Chinese nationalism and intransigence on the issue. "y the same to1en, the Oa)anese, Rietnamese, andHili)inos, already feeling threatened y China's gro$ing $ealth and )o$er, elie0e no less &rmly that notending on the island dis)utes is an essential e?)ression of their nationhood. Long ongoing, these dis)utes

ha0e escalated recently. In ay ;


36/38

military strength and on $hat might e called national asserti0eness. At the 2Bth Party Congress of theChinese Communist Party, held last #o0emer in "eiing, \i Oin)ing $as named oth )arty head andchairman of the Central ilitary Commission, ma1ing him, in eect, the nation's foremost ci0ilian andmilitary oKcial. Since then, \i has made se0eral hea0ily )uliciJed 0isits to assorted Chinese military units,all clearly intended to demonstrate the Communist Party's determination, under his leadershi), to oostthe ca)ailities and )restige of the country's army, na0y, and air force. Ge has already lin1ed this dri0e tohis elief that his country should )lay a more 0igorous and asserti0e role in the region and the $orld. In as)eech to soldiers in the city of GuiJhou, for e?am)le, \i s)o1e of his QdreamQ of national reu0enation*

QThis dream can e said to e a dream of a strong nation and for the military, it is the dream of a strongmilitary.Q Signi&cantly, he used the tri) to 0isit the Gai1ou, a destroyer assigned to the Feet res)onsile for)atrolling the dis)uted $aters of the South China Sea. As he s)o1e, a Chinese sur0eillance )lane entereddis)uted air s)ace o0er the Diaoyu+Sen1a1u islands in the East China Sea, )rom)ting Oa)an to scramlethose H-25 &ghter ets. In Oa)an, too, a ne$ leadershi) team is )lacing rene$ed em)hasis on militarystrength and national asserti0eness. n Decemer 2:th, arch-nationalist ShinJo Ae returned to )o$er asthe nation's )rime minister. Although he cam)aigned largely on economic issues, )romising to re0i0e thecountry's lagging economy, Ae has made no secret of his intent to olster the Oa)anese military andassume a tougher stance on the East China Sea dis)ute. In his &rst fe$ $ee1s in oKce, Ae has alreadyannounced )lans to increase military s)ending and re0ie$ an oKcial a)ology made y a formergo0ernment oKcial to $omen forced into se?ual sla0ery y the Oa)anese military during World War II. These ste)s are sure to )lease Oa)an's rightists, ut certain to inFame anti-Oa)anese sentiment in China,orea, and other countries it once occu)ied. E9ually $orrisome, Ae )rom)tly negotiated an agreement$ith the Phili))ines for greater coo)eration on enhanced Qmaritime securityQ in the $estern Paci&c, a mo0eintended to counter gro$ing Chinese asserti0eness in the region. Ine0italy, this $ill s)ar1 a harsh Chineseres)onse -- and ecause the 8nited States has mutual defense treaties $ith oth countries, it $ill also

increase the ris1 of 8.S. in0ol0ement in future engagements at sea. In the 8nited States, senior oKcialsare deating im)lementation of the QPaci&c )i0otQ announced y President ama in a s)eech efore theAustralian Parliament a little o0er a year ago. In it, he )romised that additional 8.S. forces $ould ede)loyed in the region, e0en if that meant cutac1s else$here. Qy guidance is clear,Q he declared. QAs $e)lan and udget for the future, $e $ill allocate the resources necessary to maintain our strong military)resence in this region.Q While ama ne0er 9uite said that his a))roach $as intended to constrain therise of China, fe$ oser0ers dout that a )olicy of QcontainmentQ has returned to the Paci&c. Indeed, the8.S. military has ta1en the &rst ste)s in this direction, announcing, for e?am)le, that y ;5, and "-;, $ould e de)loyed to ases relati0ely near China and that y ;


37/38

emotional and une?)ected gesture -- Prime inister Ae, for instance, )ulling a #i?on and )aying a

sur)rise good$ill 0isit to China -- might carry the day and change the atmos)here. !hould theseminor disputes in the Pacifc get out o' hand# howe%er# not $ust thosedirectly in%ol%ed but the whole planet will loo* with sadness andhorror on the 'ailure o' e%eryone in%ol%ed

Persian gul' presence is *ey to terrorism and iranproli'eration (meh,Thompson 1; @ Loren, 2;+>+2;, $riter on national security for Hores,!What Ga))ens When America #o Longer #eeds iddle East il%htt)*++$$$.fores.com+sites+lorenthom)son+;


38/38

P--V re'orm is at the top o' Bietos agenda

Bieto is pushing but P& is *ey

!eel*e 1; @Clare Niando, S)ecialist in Latin American Aairs from theCongressional Nesearch Ser0ice, Se)temer ;3, ;;;3.)df/any 8.S. oser0ers are interested in $hether the ne?t e?ican administration $ill )ush for further

reforms to increase )ri0ate in0ol0ement in Peme?. Enri9ue Pea Bieto has endorsed suchaction# and has suggested that Peme? might follo$ the e?am)le of Petroras in "raJil.2;>-nacting energy re'orms is a tas* which Pe[a Bieto has said will be atop priority 'or his administration Go$e0er, constitutional re'ormsre+uire a two thirds %ote in the congress. And, the P>I.led coalition"s'ailure to capture a ma$ority in either chamber o' the congress maymean that Pea Bieto will encounter the same type o' opposition to his

re'ormist agenda that &alder\n has e0perienced# unless he is able

to reach agreements with the PAB 2;3 The PND and )ortions of the PNI remaino))osed to increasing )ri0ate in0ol0ement in Peme?.2;5 Some )redict that Pea #ieto may mo0e toim)lement reforms that ha0e road ased su))ort, such as ma1ing Peme?=s udget more inde)endent andreducing its ta? urden as )art of a larger &scal reform eort, efore )ushing for greater )ri0atecoo)eration $ith Peme?.

-nergy re'orm will pass. Bieto is pushing-ste%e9 1H @Dolia, ;+2+2>, co0ers e?ican )olitics and 8.S.-e?icorelations for Hores !e?ican TR "illionaire Salinas Pliego Wants Peme? To "ePri0atiJed%htt)*++$$$.fores.com+sites+doliaeste0eJ+;+

mexico hydrocarbons supplement 1 - hss 2013

Documents