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© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Mexico Automotive Outlook October, 2017 Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager, Americas +1 781.301.9037 [email protected]

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Page 1: Mexico Automotive Outlook€¦ · automotive industry IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit acquires automotive Mastermind ... (CaaS) Driver is Person Automated Autonomous L5 New customers New

© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Mexico Automotive Outlook

October, 2017

Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager, Americas +1 781.301.9037 [email protected]

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© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

MARITIME & TRADE

ENGINEERING & PRODUCT DESIGN

AEROSPACE, DEFENSE & SECURITY

CHEMICAL

DIGITAL & WEB SOLUTIONS

ECONOMICS & COUNTRY RISK

ENERGY

FINANCIAL MARKETS DATA

& SERVICES

AUTOMOTIVE

OPERATIONAL RISK

& REGULATORY COMPLIANCE

Addressing strategic

challenges with

interconnected

capabilities

We deliver on the promise of

The New Intelligence

IHS Markit provides leaders

from multiple industries with

the perspective and insights

they need to make the best

choices and stay ahead of

their competition.

TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA & TELECOM

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© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Source: © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

3

Committed to Customers First

Including 5,000+ analysts, data scientists,

financial experts and industry specialists

• Unsurpassed ability to interpret data

• Award-winning forecasting

• Relationships with industry leaders

Offices in 34 countries

IHS Markit colleagues

12,000+ 130+

Our mission is to delight our customers

daily by delivering a powerful combination

of world-class expertise, knowledge and

solutions so they can make more informed

decisions to enable their long-term,

sustainable growth.

Traded on the Nasdaq under the INFO symbol

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IHS Markit Automotive provides a 50 year legacy…

DRI and WEFA are founded. Later join to form Global

Insight

IHS

acquires Global Insight

IHS acquires CSM

Worldwide

IHS acquires iSuppli

IHS acquires

IMS Research and BDW Automotive

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1960s

Global Insight brings vehicle demand and production forecasts,

component insight, and market

awareness tool in addition to a host

of country intelligence and industry insights

Enhances demand,

production, powertrain

and components

analysis

Adds vehicle technology

analysis featuring

infotainment & safety systems

Founded the modern

economic forecasting

industry including

forecasts for Automotive

Enhances vehicle

technology analysis and

adds consumer surveys

Adds network planning and performance management capabilities

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…and is positioned to support the industry’s future!

In July 2013, IHS acquired RL Polk,

including both Polk and CARFAX.

IHS Automotive

comprises over 800+ colleagues located in

30+ offices in 14 countries across 4

continents.

2015

IHS acquires RL Polk

IHS acquires

CARPROOF

2013 2013

IHS acquires CARFAX

IHS Markit Automotive group

is now the leading source of global light-vehicle registration, sales,

production and vehicles-in-operation data and forecasts

In 2015 IHS acquired CARPROOF

Corporation, a Canada-based

company that offers products and

services in vehicle history, appraisal

and valuation for the automotive industry

IHS merges with Markit Ltd. to

become IHS Markit

2016

IHS Markit acquires

automotive Mastermind

2017

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© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

A trusted partner to clients’ success

Our clients include:

All 20 of the largest OEMs

92 of the top 100 Tier-1 Suppliers

Our global list of over 650 clients accounts for

Over 85% of the world's top OEMs and suppliers

© 2016 IHS Markit – All Rights Reserved

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© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Agenda

• Global Outlook

• NAFTA Outlook

• Mexico Outlook

• Key Takeaways

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Global growth forecasts expects BRICs to strengthen and mature markets to remain resilient

-2

0

2

4

6

NAFTA OtherAmericas

WesternEurope

EmergingEurope

Mideast-N.Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Japan Other Asia-Pacific

An

nu

al

perc

en

t ch

an

ge

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020–24

Real GDP

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9

Oil prices gradually recover but remain moderate adjusted for inflation

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027

Do

lla

rs/b

arr

el

Current US dollars 2016 US dollars

Price of Dated Brent crude oil

Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit

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10

The dollar’s real exchange rate value will depreciate in the medium term

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Ind

ex

, 2

00

9 =

1.0

Major trading partners Other important trading partners

Real trade-weighted dollar index

Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit

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$400 Estimated incremental spend globally to 2020. $5–8 billion estimated

average annual per original equipment manufacturer (OEM).

Penalties for non-

compliance billion

Brand image as a leader in

technological advancements and

environmental sustainability

Vehicle profitability

Market share

*

* IEA World Energy Investment Outlook (International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris).

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

US (FTP75/US06)

Europe (NEDC)

Japan (JC08)

China (NEDC)

S.Korea (NEDC)

• Global vehicle CO2 targets are now starting to converge, allowing for more global synergy and analysis

• What’s at stake?

Tighter Regulations: What are automakers to do?

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So, what’s a ZEV?

Hydrogen fuel cell electric

vehicles (FCEVs)

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs)

Plug-in hybrid

vehicles (PHEVs)

Note: ZEV = zero emissions vehicle.

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Disruptive

–Toyota

–Honda

–Nissan

–Ford

–BMW

–Volkswagen

–Mazda

–Hyundai

–Lexus

–Audi

© 2016 IHS 13

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Photo By: Devin Lindsay

Products

Battery evolution Infrastructure

Government / incentives Oil prices

Consumer

Six Stars of Alignment

Photos by: Devin Lindsay

Source: Shutterstock

Source: Shutterstock

Source: Shutterstock Source: Shutterstock

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Traditional

Ownership

model

(CaaP)

Sharing Economy

(CaaS)

Driver is Person

Automated

Autonomous

L5 New customers

New Form of mobility

Disruptors

(CaaRobot)

Big

ge

st d

isru

pto

r

to A

uto

mo

tive

In

du

str

y

Paradigm Change and the Mobility Cube Solving the Automotive Rubik’s Cube as new mobility ecosystems emerge

Ride-Hail Car-Share

“CaaS” – car as a service “CaaRobot – car as a robot “CaaP” – car as a product “PAC” - Personal Autonomous Car

PAC Robo Taxis

e.g. Uber, Lyft, Didi

e.g. Zip Car Car2go

Page 16: Mexico Automotive Outlook€¦ · automotive industry IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit acquires automotive Mastermind ... (CaaS) Driver is Person Automated Autonomous L5 New customers New

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64

93

108

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Global Light Vehicle Sales (Millions)

Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS

29million

15million

-0.4 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4

0.9 1.2

2.6 9.3

-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

MPV

Wagon

Convertible

Roadster

Coupe

Van

Chassis-Cab

Pickup

Sedan

Hatchback

SUV

Global sales approach 100M by end of the decade

Page 17: Mexico Automotive Outlook€¦ · automotive industry IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit acquires automotive Mastermind ... (CaaS) Driver is Person Automated Autonomous L5 New customers New

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

SUV Share of Global Production

Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS

Region

SUV Growth

(CAGR 2017-

24)

Middle

East/Africa 13.6%

South

America 11.7%

South Asia 9.3%

Europe 4.6%

Greater

China 4.4%

North

America 2.3%

Japan/Korea -1.3%

Grand Total 3.7%

SUV growth across different regions of the world

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2017 is the year of the return of the BRICs; Mexico among top 5 in 2016

Annual LV sales change—Top 20

Source: IHS © 2015 IHS

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Iran

Russia

Bra

zil

India

Thailand

Spain

Italy

Japan

Canada

Fra

nce

Indonesia

Germ

any

Chin

a

Austr

alia

South

Kore

a

Mexic

o

United S

tate

s

United K

ingdom

Turk

ey

Saudi Ara

bia

Growth 2016 Growth 2017 Growth 2018

Page 19: Mexico Automotive Outlook€¦ · automotive industry IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit acquires automotive Mastermind ... (CaaS) Driver is Person Automated Autonomous L5 New customers New

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19

19

Light Vehicle Sales in Latin America

Country CY 2014 CY 2015 P'15 CY 2016 P'16 CY 2017 P'17

CY 2016

Dic15 MOE '16

Argentina 650,144 631,996 -2.8% 674,833 6.8% 859,562 27.4% 579,740 16.4%

Brazil 3,333,082 2,480,502 -25.6% 1,988,089 -19.9% 2,175,065 9.4% 2,100,228 -5.3%

Chile 328,412 283,495 -13.7% 304,626 7.5% 350,961 15.2% 262,057 16.2%

Colombia 296,047 267,821 -9.5% 243,469 -9.1% 252,350 3.6% 264,117 -7.8%

Ecuador 92,930 72,117 -22.4% 69,001 -4.3% 96,500 39.9% 81,413 -15.2%

Mexico 1,135,029 1,351,812 19.1% 1,601,195 18.4% 1,575,988 -1.6% 1,399,876 14.4%

Peru 165,915 147,559 -11.1% 154,334 4.6% 172,515 11.8% 150,483 2.6%

Page 20: Mexico Automotive Outlook€¦ · automotive industry IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit acquires automotive Mastermind ... (CaaS) Driver is Person Automated Autonomous L5 New customers New

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Mexico outlook summary

20

*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

12

17

22

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

0

2

4

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

2.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Real GDP growth (%)

Exchange rate per US dollar*

Consumer price inflation (%)

Current-account balance**

Source: IHS © 2016 IHS Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

Source: IHS © 2016 IHS Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

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Earthquakes impacted 8 States in Mexico

21

• States impacted account for 35% of GDP

• In these 8 states, 84% of business units did not suffer loses or altered their normal business operations

• Approximately 50% of impacted business units closed/stop only for 1 day

• Worst case scenario: GDP loses at 0.2-0.3 of a percentage point

2% 17%

1%

9%

1% 2%

3% 0%

65%

ChiapasCiudad de MéxicoGuerreroMéxicoMorelos

Mexican States: share of GDP

Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit

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Mexico Light Vehicle Sales - SAAR

22

Source: IHS Automotive

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

ene.-

09

ene.-

10

ene.-

11

ene.-

12

ene.-

13

ene.-

14

ene.-

15

ene.-

16

ene.-

17

ene.-

18

Millo

nes

PACE LV

Mexico LV

Page 23: Mexico Automotive Outlook€¦ · automotive industry IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit acquires automotive Mastermind ... (CaaS) Driver is Person Automated Autonomous L5 New customers New

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Thousand Units

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Monthly Volumes

23

Source: IHS Automotive

2016 2017 %

Jan 119,339 123,260 3.0%

Feb 110,491 117,976 6.7%

Mar 117,962 137,012 17.1%

Apr 118,005 114,477 -3.3%

May 121,538 122,916 1.1%

Jun 134,337 127,410 -5.3%

Jul 130,916 122,110 -7.3%

Aug 133,800 125,331 -6.5%

Sep 131,696 116,356 -11.5%

Oct 137,389 131,995 -3.9%

Nov 154,219 153,443 -0.8%

Dec 191,516 183,680 -4.6%

Total 1,601,208 1,575,988 -1.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2014

2015

2016

2017

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YTD by Global Segment (August)

24

Global Segment 2016 2017 YOY

INDUSTRY 986,388 989,661 0.3%

C-Sedan 265,480 253,686 1 -4.4% B-Sedan 130,398 123,803 2 -5.1% B-Hatchback 108,479 108,868 3 0.4% C-SUV 100,497 96,828 4 -3.7% C-Pickup 79,698 80,381 5 0.9% B-SUV 44,615 72,647 6 62.8% A-Hatchback 59,184 54,210 7 -8.4% D-SUV 30,111 28,456 8 -5.5% C-Hatchback 25,975 27,578 9 6.2% D-Pickup 28,891 24,512 10 -15.2% D-Sedan 27,059 20,632 11 -23.8% D-Van 13,559 15,300 12 12.8% Others 72,442 82,760 14.2%

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-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Mil

lon

es

Light Veh -L Annual Change -R

Forecast calls for continued restriction of used cars

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales More credit/manufacturing bring us to new highs?

25

Source: IHS Automotive

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CAGR by Segment-Bodytype

C-Sedan B-SedanB-

HatchbackC-SUV C-Pickup B-SUV

A-Hatchback

D-SUVC-

HatchbackD-Pickup Total

CAGR 2011-2016 8.2% 21.9% 10.2% 17.5% 13.6% 79.1% 18.5% -0.2% 19.2% -0.3% 12.1%

CAGR 2017-2022 2.1% -0.3% 1.9% 4.9% 1.5% 3.8% -5.0% 6.7% -1.6% 2.2% 2.0%

CAGR 2017-2025 1.7% -0.1% 1.5% 3.9% 1.6% 3.3% -1.6% 5.2% 1.2% 2.0% 1.9%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

CAGR 2011-2016 CAGR 2017-2022 CAGR 2017-2025

Source: IHS Automotive

26

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There are 35 brands inside Others: Audi, Fiat, Suzuki, BMW, Jeep, Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi, Peugeot, Mini, GMC, Buick, Acura, Infiniti, Cadillac, Lincoln, Isuzu, Porsche, Volvo, Subaru, Chrysler, Land Rover, Smart, Alfa Romeo, Jaguar, Bentley, Others, Beijing Auto, FAW, Freightliner, Genesis, Hummer, Mercury, Pontiac, Saab and Tianjin Xiali.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Others

Ram

SEAT

Renault

Dodge

Hyundai

Mazda

Ford

Kia

Honda

Toyota

Volkswagen

Chevrolet

Nissan

Percentage

Nissan, GM and VW will face competition

Mexico LV Market Share by Brand

27

Source: IHS Automotive

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-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-

100

200

300

400

500

Milla

res

Nissan Renault Mitsubishi Infiniti YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Renault-Nissan Alliance

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

C B D E HVAN

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

28

Source: IHS Automotive

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-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Milla

res

Chevrolet GMC Buick Cadillac YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales General Motors

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

B A C D E HVAN

29

Source: IHS Automotive

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Milla

res

VW SEAT Audi Porsche Bentley YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Volkswagen Group, Jetta weakened

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

C B D E A F

30

Source: IHS Automotive

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-200%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1400%

1600%

-

50

100

150

200

Milla

res

Kia Hyundai Genesis YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Hyundai Auto Group

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

C B A D E

31

Source: IHS Automotive

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

Milla

res

Toyota YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Toyota Motor Corporation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

C B D E

32

Source: IHS Automotive

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Milla

res

Dodge Ram Fiat Jeep

Chrysler Alfa Romeo YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Fiat Chrysler Automobiles

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

C D B A E HVAN

33

Source: IHS Automotive

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

Milla

res

Acura Honda YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Honda Motor Company

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

B C D E

34

Source: IHS Automotive

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Milla

res

Ford Lincoln YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Ford Motor Company

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

B D C E HVAN

35

Source: IHS Automotive

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Milla

res

Mazda YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Mazda Motor Corporation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

C B D

36

Source: IHS Automotive

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

5

10

15

20

25

Milla

res

Mini BMW YOY

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Bayerische Motoren Werke AG

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

D C B E

37

Source: IHS Automotive

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-

5

10

15

20

25

Milla

res

Suzuki YOY

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

B C D

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales

Suzuki

38

Source: IHS Automotive

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

5

10

15

20

25

Milla

res

Smart Mercedes-Benz YOY

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

D C E A HVAN F

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales

Daimler AG

39

Source: IHS Automotive

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Milla

res

Peugeot YOY

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

C B E D

Mexico Light Vehicle Sales

PSA

40

Source: IHS Automotive

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

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• Global growth is re-centered around BRICs (primarily China)

• China gives way to electric vehicles, will they hybrids come to Mexico?

• Relevance of production for local market may gain traction given FX/NAFTA

• Mexico 2017 sales challenged by inflation, FX and financing

• Industry will grow at comparable pace to GDP

• SUV/CUV growth yes, but, primarily B-SUV due to new product influx

• Commercial Segments are ok (Vans/Pickups)

• Hyundai/Kia gain ground on SUVs and local product

Key Takeaways

41

41

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Thank you, Muito obrigado, Muchas gracias! Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager [email protected]

Christopher Hopson, Manager [email protected]

Roberto Barros, Senior Analyst [email protected] Joao Reboucas, Analyst [email protected]

Danny Blodgett, Analyst [email protected]

42