metsäboard and... · • paperboard sales volume in jan–september 2015 up by 10 % compared to...
TRANSCRIPT
Metsä BoardInvestor presentation Q3 2015
2
Contents
Q3 2015
Investment highlights 3
Operating environment and market position 14
Strategic cornerstones and financial targets 23
Final steps of transformation 31
Q3 2015 results and outlook 39
Balance sheet and funding 51
Product development and capital expenditure 60
Capacity and deliveries 65
Cost structure and sourcing 71
Sustainability 76
General information 83
Owners 91
Contact information 94
Investment highlights
Metsä Board is market leader in folding boxboard in
Europe and global market leader in coated white top
kraftliner
4
• Main customers are consumer goods companies,
converters and merchants
• Best-in-class profitability and a technology leader
• Steady cash flow generation and strong balance sheet
• Strong fibre know-how and self-sufficiency in pulp
• Valuable holdings in Metsä Fibre (24.9%) and
Pohjolan Voima (2.6%)
• Global sales to over 100 countries and eight
production units in Finland and Sweden
Sales split2014
Paperboard
Paper
Sales by region 2014
EMEA
Americas
APAC
*) Includes Market pulpQ3 2015
RETAIL-READY
FOOD SERVICE
CONSUMER GOODS
Metsä Board’s customers benefit from high-performance
packaging materials
Folding boxboard, white top kraftliners and fully bleached linerboard
6
Metsä Board’s paperboard business’ profitability
is top of its field in Europe
Q3 2015
ROCE-% and EBIT, %
3,4
4,8
6,4
9,1
12,1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2012 2013 2014 9/2015
%
2,4
3,6
5,2
6,8
9,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2012 2013 2014 9/2015
%
Q3 20157
ROCE-%, excl. non-recurring items EBIT-%, excl. non-recurring items
8
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
1 000
1 300
1 600
1 900
2 200
2 500
2 800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F
Production capacity/employee Number of employees
Strong continuing improvement in productivity
Production capacity (tonnes) / employee at current mills
Q3 2015
No. of
employees
Production
capacity/
employee
• Pure and safe
• Superior printing surface
• Consistently high quality
• Even over 30% lighter in weight than other paperboards
Metsä Board’s paperboards offer an excellent way for
consumer goods companies to improve quality of their
packages and sustainability of their operations
9
Metsä Board’s paperboards are
examples of successful product
development
40,8 g
Recycled
fibre board
35,2 g
Solid
bleached
board
30,2 g
Average
folding
boxboard
27,7 g
Metsä Board’s
folding
boxboard
Q3 2015
• Continuous steady growth above the market
• The biggest growth drivers are
– strong and long-term customer relationships
– innovative high-performance product portfolio to
replace other packaging materials
– best-in class customer service concept
• Paperboard sales volume in Jan–September 2015
up by 10 % compared to corresponding period in
2014.
Q3 201510
Metsä Board is the market leader in
Europe
• Metsä Board uses only
fresh forest fibre from
sustainably managed
northern forests.
• Americas is our main growth market
• The biggest growth drivers are
– Limited local supply in high-quality paperboards
– Due to strong consolidation, converters without own
paperboard production are looking for alternatives
• In folding cartons their share is 40–50%
– Growing environmental awareness
• Paperboard sales volume in Jan–September 2015 up
by 20 % compared to corresponding period in 2014.
11
Metsä Board has a significant
foothold in North America
• Paperboard offers a
sustainable option
for plastics such as
styrofoam in food
service applications.
Q3 2015
• Metsä Board is the paperboard quality benchmark in
Asia
• Responsible consumer goods companies promote
good packaging
– Sustainability
– Traceable raw materials
– Product safety
• Due to the local overcapacity in Asia, the timing is not
good for aggressive growth.
12
Focus on the high-quality segment
in APAC
• Global consumer
goods companies are
not willing to change
paperboard suppliers
easily in the high-
quality segments.
Q3 2015
• Limited availability of high quality fibre– Sustainably harvested high quality fresh forest fibres are a must
– Own state of art chemical, mechanical and BCTMP pulping capacity
vital competitive factors
• Leading global consumer goods companies and corrugated box
manufacturers not willing to change paperboard suppliers easily
in the high-quality segments– High speed packaging lines very quality sensitive
– Requirements for uniform brand look and feel globally
– Sustainability and product safety aspects
• Skilled people and organizations a crucial success factor– High-quality paperboard companies have traditions from several
generations
Q3 201513
High threshold for new producers to
enter high-quality board segment
Operating environmentand market position
GLOBALISATION TECHNOLOGY SUSTAINABILITY CONSUMPTION
• Increasing role of retail
and harmonisation of
global brands
• Growing importance of
logistics
• Consolidation of carton
converters
• New innovations
utilising wood fibre and
other biomaterials
• Continuous
development of
production
technologies
• Digitalisation and
automatisation change
business dynamics
• Greater significance of
resource efficiency
drives circular
economy and life-cycle
thinking
• Increasing regulation
brings additional
obligations
• Social responsibility
through value chain
• Growing consumption
and consumers’
increasing quality
needs globally
• Stronger demand for
sustainable packaging
• Digital services change
purchasing behavior
Demand is based on global trends
Fresh forest fibre paperboard
Other wood fibre based materials
Non-fibre based materials
16
The global fresh forest fibre paperboard packaging
market is about USD 110 billion
Source: Metsä Board estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2018E
USD bn
USD 110 bn
The total packaging market is
USD 800 billion
Estimated average annual growth rate of
fresh forest fibre paperboard is 3-4%
Q3 2015
Global cartonboard market is about 36 Mt/aThe share of FBB is 9 Mt or 25% of the total market
17
Folding boxboard
Other fresh forest fibre grades
Recycled grades
Source: Metsä Board estimates
APAC20 Mt/a
EMEA8 Mt/a
North America6 Mt/a
Lat. Am.2 Mt/a
Q3 2015
Avg. growth rate
for premium
cartonboards is
3–4%/a
Market price development in EuropeFolding boxboard and white-top kraftliner
Q3 201518
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Taivekartonki Valkopintainen kraftlaineriFolding boxboard White-top kraftliner
Folding boxboard
1/2009–9/2015
White-top kraftliner
1/2009–9/2015
EUR/tonne
Sources: Pöyry Management consulting, FOEX Indexes Ltd.
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 ´09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
Havu
Lehti
Lehti
Havu
USD
EUR
Pulp price development in USD and EUR (PIX)
Q3 201519
Source: Foex Indexes Ltd
Softwood pulp
Softwood pulp
Hardwood pulp
Hardwood pulp
USD EUR
Metsä Board strengthens its market leadership
Q3 201520
Largest Folding Boxboard
Producers in Europe1,000 tonnes
400
4002000 800 1,2001,000 1,400600
Capacity: 1000 tons/a
Current Post-
measures
Holmen (7%)
IP (8%)
Mayr-Melnhof (13%)
Stora Enso (25%)
935(35%)
150
2001000 700300 600500400
Smurfit Kappa
(15%)
(13%)
Mondi
580(29%)
(25%)
(12%)
Current
730 / 34%
Post-
measures
SCA
BillerudKorsnäs
Capacity: 1000 tons/a
+43%+21%
1,335 / 43%
Note: Share of production capacity currently shown in parenthesis
Sources: Metsä Board, Pöyry Management Consulting Oy
Largest White Fresh Forest Fibre
Linerboard Producers in Europe1,000 tonnes
Folding Boxboard Capacities in Europe BIG 5 = 89% of total
Q3 201521
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Others
Cascades
Holmen
IP
Mayr-Melnhof
Stora Enso
Metsä Board
8%
8%
7%
5%
35%
25%
13%
Capacity: 1,000 tonnes/yearSource: Pöyry Management Consulting Oy
White fresh forest fibre linerboard capacities in Europe BIG 5 = 94% of total
Q3 201522
Capacity: 1,000 tonnes/yearSource: Metsä Board and Pöyry Management Consulting Oy
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Others
SCA
BillerudKorsnäs
Mondi
Smurfit Kappa
Metsä Board 29%
25%
15%
13%
12%
7%
Strategic cornerstones and financial targets
Metsä Board’s vision is to be the preferred
supplier of premium paperboards creating
value for customers globally
Strategic cornerstones are
• Focus
• Growth
• Profitability
Q3 201524
Responsible profitability
Reliability
Cooperation
Renewal
Focus
Focus on premium fresh forest fibre
paperboards for consumer and retail packaging
This means to us:
• We focus on serving customers whose quality
expectations require our high quality, light and strong
packaging materials.
• Our paperboards are produced from fresh forest fibres.
• Our products are used for packages at the store and
from the store to the consumer.
Q3 201525
Growth
Grow profitably together with brand owner, converter
and merchant customers globally in businesses that
benefit from our safe and sustainable paperboards
This means to us:
• We grow in end-uses where our product is best suited to
protecting our customers’ products and promoting their brands
and businesses.
• Our customer base is global, including brand owner, private
label, converter and merchant customers.
• By selecting businesses that benefit from our paperboards we
can generate value for our customers and grow profitably with
them.
Q3 201526
Profitability
Profitability is based on superior cost efficiency
and healthy sales prices driven by high-quality
pulps and unique technical know-how
This means to us:
• Our superior cost efficiency will be achieved by further
developing productivity and efficiency of our mills, operations
and people.
• We will continue to drive down purchasing costs in all areas.
• Our self-sufficiency in high-quality pulps together with unique
paperboard making expertise helps us to improve our market
position further and maintain healthy price levels.
Q3 201527
Financial targets
Minimum ROCE 12%* from 2017
3,4
4,8
6,4
9,1
12,1
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1–Q3/2015
106
72 70
51
34
2011 2012 2013 2014 9/2015
Q3 201528
Maximum net gearing 70%
* excl. non-recurring items
%%
• Return on capital employed (ROCE) a minimum of 12% from 2017 onwards• Net gearing not to exceed 70%
• Grow the paperboard businesses profitably globally
• Exit underperforming paper businesses
• Secure good price levels
• Keep best in class product quality and improve supply chain
• Develop new products for existing and new end uses
• Continue productivity improvements and cost savings
Q3 201529
Main priorities and actions to achieve
financial targets
Earnings per share and dividend paid
1,85
0,460,3
-0,43
-0,79
-0,25
-1,21
-0,59
-1,59
-1,09
0,09
-0,83
0,52
0,19 0,21
0,51 0,51 0,51
0,250,12 0,12 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,09 0,12
-1,6
-1,1
-0,6
-0,1
0,4
0,9
1,4
1,9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Earnings per share, EUR Dividend per share, EUR
Q3 201530
Dividend policy: • Metsä Board’s dividend policy is to pay a dividend of at least 1/3 of the Company's EPS
• Dividend pay-out in 2014: 57% (2013: 47%)
Final steps of transformation
New measures finalise Metsä Board’s
successful transformation
Q3 201532
Market
growth
Fresh
Forest Fibre
Paperboard
ROCE %
European
paper
2006: New strategy
2007–2013: Numerous divestments,
closures and restructuring measures
2015: Completion of the transformation
The leading fresh forest fibre
paperboard company in Europe
Q3 201533
Husum will become a leading fresh
forest fibre paperboard unit in Europe
Folding boxboard production
• Capacity 400,000 t/a
• Deliveries mainly to Americas and
Food service globally
• Start up in Jan 2016, full production
capacity reached by the end of 2016
• Expected delivery volumes in 2016
at least 200,000 tonnes
• Total investment EUR 170 million
Linerboard production
• Capacity 300,000 t/a
• Deliveries to Europe and Americas
• Remaining uncoated paper* production to
linerboard production by the end of 2017
Capacity changes 2014 vs. 2017:
• Paperboard capacity +700,000 tn/a
• Paper capacity -600,000 tn/a
*) Currently, the paperboard machine BM2 produces simultaneously uncoated paper
(capacity 100,000 tn/a). This production will will be finished by the end of 2017.
Ambitious growth targets for new paperboard
volume from Husum millIf the demand supply situation so requires in the coming years,
Metsä Board has possibilities to adjust its production accordingly
250
150150
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
Estimateddeliveries in 2015
Folding boxboardto Americas
Food serviceboard globally
Linerboard toEurope andAmericas
Targeteddeliveries in 2018
34
A total of 400 000 tonnes of
new FBB capacity
1,0
00 tonnes
Q3 2015
Most important growth area is Americas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2018 target
Folding boxboard Fresh forest fibre linerboard
35
Actual and targeted deliveries to Americas
1,0
00 tonnes
300
250
Q3 2015
36
Gohrsmühle mill in Germany
divested to mutares and its partner
company in May 2015
• mutares AG is a stock listed German industrial holding
company focusing on acquiring companies in special situations
• Negative cash flow impact of about EUR 37 million, which was
clearly less than in the case of a potential closure
• Positive non-recurring item of EUR 17.5 million was booked in
2Q 2015
• Gohrsmühle’s main products are cast coated and label
papers and there are approximately 480 employees
Q3 2015
• Based on growth of paperboard business and discontinuation
of paper production, Metsä Board’s annual sales is expected to
remain rather stable
• Transformation process in Husum mill, Sweden
– Annual Operating result impact +EUR 50 million
– Fully impact mostly in 2017 and fully in 2018
– Expected impact on 2016 is roughly one third of the total
• Gohrsmühle divestment
– Annual Operating result impact +EUR 20 million
– Roughly half materialises in 2015
– Reduces annual sales by EUR 90 million
• Total paperboard capacity after the transformation
over 2 million tonnes
Q3 201537
Completion of the transformation
and expected impacts
All figures are based on company estimates and compared to FY2014 figures
Paperboard is Metsä Board’s core business
74 %
26 %
2014
Paperboard Paper
38
81 %
19 %
2015E
Paperboard Paper
96 %
4 %
2016E
Paperboard Paper
Paperboard includes the market pulpQ3 2015
Q3/2015 results and outlook
• Profitability improved from the previous quarter
• Paperboard delivery volumes grew and price levels remained
stable
• Production of coated paper ended at Husum mill
Q3 201540
Solid performance in Q3/2015
After the review period:
• Metsä Board announced price increase in FBB in Europe
• Installation of new FBB machine in Husum began
• Investment decision in extrusion coating
ROCE, % (excl. non-recurring items)target is >12% from 2017
3,44,8
6,4
9,1
12,1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1–Q3/15
Steady sales and improving margins
Q3 201541
19 29 36 28 35 37 43 47 550%
5%
10%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
Operating result*EUR million and % of sales
9 18 21 20 27 32 32 40 480%
5%
10%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
Pre-tax result* EUR million and % of sales
502 479 501 494 514 499 526 522 498200
300
400
500
600
Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
SalesEUR million
*) excluding non-recurring items
Paperboard delivery volumes
Lower FX hedging costs
Negative profit impact from Gohrsmühle mill* was eliminated
Strike in Finland
Maintenance shutdown in Kemi
Paper delivery volumes (planned)
Q3 201542
Main operating result drivers
in Q3/2015 vs. Q2/2015
*) Divested in May 2015
Paperboard deliveries continued to grow in Q3/2015Annual average growth rate (CAGR) in 2013–2015E: 12%
Q3 201543
189 192 197 185 191 197 210 203 204 213 224
94 93 9591
112 110120
111130
141137
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
Folding boxboard Fresh forest fibre linerboard
1,000 tonnes
Paperboard segment in Q3/2015: Sales increased and profitability improved
Q3 201544
Operating result, excl. non-recurring itemsSales
EU
R m
illio
n
EU
R m
illio
n
4451
61 60 65
12%
14%16% 15% 16%
-2%
1%
4%
7%
10%
13%
16%
0
20
40
60
Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/150
100
200
300
400
Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
Q3/2015 highlights
• FBB deliveries increased compared to Q2/2015
• Price level remained stable
• Result was weakened by the strike in Finland and maintenance shutdown in Kemi
Operating result, M€
Operating result, M€
EBIT-%
Non-core operations segment in Q3/2015: Sales decreased as expected
Q3 201545
Operating result, excl. non-recurring itemsSales
EU
R m
illio
n
EU
R m
illio
n
0
50
100
150
Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
-2,9 -1,8 -3,2 -3,4 -1,3
-2%
-1%
-3%-3%
-2%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
-4
-2
0
2
Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
Q3/2015 highlights
• Paper deliveries decreased as planned and prices declined slightly compared to Q2/2015
• Negative profit impact from Gohrsmühle was eliminated (divested in May 2015)
• Coated paper production discontinued in Husum
Operating result, M€
Operating result, M€
EBIT-%
Other operations segment result
Q3 201546
-2 -6 -6 -12 -14 -9 -9
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
Other operations segment:
Operating result, excl. non-recurring itemsEUR million
• Other operations segment include costs which
are not allocated to units, e.g. head office costs
• Cost base of these is roughly EUR 4–5 million
per quarter
• Result fluctuation is caused by hedge
accounting result, which has had a negative
impact of EUR 3–8 million per quarter during
the past year
• In Q3/2015, the hedge accounting impact was
EUR -5 million (H1/2015: EUR -16 million).
Strong cash flow from operations
33
-19
92 51 74 33 56 9110
-24
78 46 56 9 8 45
82
19
114
157
198
250
214
254
22
-37
57110
155
188
119 118
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
Cash flow from operations, quarterly Free cash flow, quarterly
Cash flow from operations, rolling 12 months Free cash flow, rolling 12 months
Q3 201547
€ million
Q3 201548
Near-term outlook for Q4/2015
• Paperboard delivery volumes are expected to decrease slightly due
to the seasonally weaker December. Average price level is expected
to remain stable
• Metsä Board announced price increase in FBB in Europe, effective
from 1 December
• Paper delivery volumes will decrease clearly as planned
• Long fibre pulp supply and demand is expected to be in balance
• The earlier announced investment shutdown in Husum will have a
negative impact on operating result of approximately EUR 15 million
• Average production costs are not expected to change materially in
Q4/2015
Metsä Board’s operating result excluding non-recurring items in
Q4/2015 is expected to decline compared to Q3/2015
The result is weakened primarily due to the shutdown of the
integrated mill related to Husum's investment programme
Q3 201549
Profit guidance for Q4/2015
• Effective ramp-up of new cartonboard machine
• Ensure successful sales of new capacity
• Secure good price levels
• Keep high product quality and further improve
supply chain
• Continue product development and enter new
end use areas
• Ensuring the cost efficiency and productivity
Q3 201550
Key priorities in 2016
2Q/2015 Results and OutlookFunding and Debt InformationBalance sheet and funding
Strong balance sheet
Equity ratio, %
27%
33%
41%39%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2011 2010 2013 2014 9/15
106%
73% 70%
51%
34%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2011 2012 2013 2014 9/15
Q3 201552
Net gearing, %
783 625 597 427 344
4,4
3,42,9
1,8
1,2
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2011 2012 2013 2014 9/15
Net debt, EUR million
Net debt/EBITDA
Net debt, EUR million and Net debt/EBITDA
Target 70%
FX exposure by currencyAnnual gross amount €1.1 bn
49 %
17 %
30 %
4 %
USD GBP SEK Other currencies
Currency Q3 2015 Estimated in
2017
USD, $ +45 M€ +70 M€
GBP, £ +20 M€ +10 M€
Swedish krona -30 M€ -30 M€
53
Annual FX sensitivities to Group EBIT
Foreign exchange exposure and sensitivites
10 % strengthening of foreign currency vs. EUR
will have an impact on EBIT:
• Duration of Metsä Board’s hedges of the main foreign currency flows has been 4–6 months during the last 12 months
• Segment figures reflect exchange rate changes rapidly but hedge accounting result in Other operations balance the impact
Q3 2015
Diversified funding sources, strong liquidity
33 %
30 %
26 %
3%7 % Bonds
Loans from financialinstitutionsPension loans
Finance leases
Other loans
Q3 201554
Debt structureTotal EUR 670 million
30 September 2015
69 %
21 %
10 % Liquid assets andinvestments
Revolving creditfacility
Undrawn pensionloan
Available liquidityTotal EUR 467 million
30 September 2015
Average interest rate of IB at the end of Q3/2015 was 3.8%.
Well-balanced maturity schedule
6446
96
182
254
25
0 1
100
45
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 >2021
Long-term interest bearing liabilities and committed undrawn credit facilities 30 September 2015
Long-term interest bearing liabilities Committed undrawn credit facilities
Q3 201555
EUR million
Financial costs are declining steadily
47 56 39 273,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
0
20
40
60
2012 2013 2014 Q1–Q3 2015
Net financial costs, EUR million
Average interest rate, %
• Net financial costs in January–
September totalled EUR 27 million
(Q1–Q3/2014: EUR 34 million)
• Declining costs due to the lower
interest rates, credit margins and
IB debt
• Average interest rate in IB debt in
Q1–Q3/2015 was 3.8%
Q3 201556
Net financial costs and average interest rateEUR %
Debt programmes 30 September 2015
Long-term borrowings Total amount, EUR million Outstanding, EUR million Average interest rate*, % Maturity
EUR 225 million bond Issue 2014 225 225 4.5 2019
Syndicated credit facility 2014 250 150 3.7 2018
EUR 104 million bilateral loans 104 104 2.9 2015–2017
EUR 21 million finance leases 21 21 2.2 2015–2020
EUR 218 million pension loans 218 172 3.7 2015–2020
Q3 201557
Metsä Board’s significant debt securities issued and outstanding at 30 September 2015
* The average interest rate take into account outstanding interest rate swaps and amortised arrangement fees
The average interest rate of all Metsä Board interest bearing net liabilities incl. interest rate derivatives per 30 September 2015 is 3.8%
Metsä Board’s principal long-term liquidity reserves at 30 September 2015Liquidity reserves Total amount, EUR million Outstanding, EUR million Average interest rate*, % Maturity
Revolving credit facility 2014 100 0 - 2018
Pension loan facilities 218 172 3.7 -
Short-term funding programmes
Metsä Group internal short-term limit 150 0 - 0–12 months
Metsä Group Treasury funding programmes
EUR 150 million domestic CP programme 150 0 - 0–12 months
Ratings’ history
2000: S&P: Short term ratings lowered to A3, Long term ratingsplaced to credit watch negativeMoody’s: Long and short term ratings outlook changed fromstable to negative
2001: S&P: Long term ratings lowered to BBB-, stable outlookMoody’s: Long and short term ratings lowered to Baa3/P3,negative outlook
2003: S&P: Downgrade to BB+, stable outlook Moody’s: Downgrade to Ba1, negative outlook
2004: S&P: Outlook changed from stable to negative, ratings affirmedMoody’s: Downgrade to Ba2, stable outlook
2005: S&P: Downgrade to BB, stable outlookMoody’s: Outlook changed from stable to negative, ratings affirmed
2006: S&P: Downgrade to BB-, negative outlookMoody’s: Downgrade to Ba3, negative outlookMoody’s: Downgrade to B2, negative outlookS&P: Downgrade to B+, negative outlook
2007: Moody’s: Downgrade to B3, negative outlookS&P: Downgrade to B, negative outlookS&P: Downgrade to B-, stable outlook
2008: S&P: Outlook to negative
2009: S&P: Downgrade to CCC+, negative outlook Moody’s: Downgrade to Caa1, outlook negative
2010: S&P: Outlook to stableMoody’s: Outlook to stableS&P: Upgrade to B-, stable outlookMoody’s: Upgrade to B3, outlook to positive
2011: S&P: Outlook to positiveS&P: Outlook to stableMoody’s: Outlook to stable
2012: Moody’s: Outlook to positive
2013: S&P: Outlook to positiveMoody’s: Upgrade to B2, outlook stableS&P: Upgrade to B, outlook stableMoody’s: Outlook to positive
2014: S&P: Outlook to positiveMoody’s: Upgrade to B1, outlook positive
2015: S&P: Upgrade to BB, outlook stableMoody’s: Upgrade to Ba2, outlook stable
58 Q3 2015
Positive rating development
59
Moody’s
Standard & Poor’s
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BB+ | Ba1
StableStableBB | Ba2
BB- | Ba3
B+ | B1
B | B2
B- | B3
CCC+ | Caa1
CCC | Caa2
Q3 2015
2Q/2015 Results and OutlookProduct development and capital expenditureProduct development and capital expenditure
Q3 201561
Increased emphasis on
product development
• Further improvement of product quality and sustainability
• Close cooperation with customers
• Technical properties of food service boards will be developed
and thus the end use range widened
• The Kyro mill will be the first in the world to start testing foam
forming on a production scale – Improves printing surface and enables further reduction of weight
– Reduces the use of raw materials, energy and water
– Metsä Board has done extensive development work for several
years to commercialise this new technology
Q3 201562
Metsä Board expands its offering in
food and food service paperboards
by investing in extrusion coating
• Investment value EUR 38 million
• Will be implemented at Husum mill
• Start-up in Q1/2017 with capacity of 100,000 t/a
• In 2015–2016 Metsä Board’s paperboards are coated by
external converter
• The company continues to develop other barrier
solutions including biobased materials
Food service packaging requires barrier features
e.g. moisture and fat resistance
Capital expenditure and depreciation
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Capex Growth capex Depreciation
• Annual capex excluding the growth capex
is €40-60 million
• Main growth capexes:
– Debottlenecking at Finnish mills in 2010–12
– Husum investment 170 M€ in 2015–16
– Extrusion line 38 M€ in 2016–17
– Metsä Fibre’s bioproduct mill 25 M€ in 2016
Q3 201563
€ million
• Net capacity increase at the site is approximately 800,000 t/a– Investment cost of approximately EUR 1.2 billion
– Start up in 3Q 2017
• Capital invested by Metsä Board will be EUR 24,9 million– Metsä Board has no other financial commitments in the project
• Metsä Board’s holding in Metsä Fibre remains unchanged at
24.9 per cent
• All in all, Metsä Board’s pulp balance is expected to be
500,000–600,000 t/a long from 2018 onwards– Majority of the market pulp is softwood chemical pulp
– Reserve to grow paperboard business further in the future while
maintaining self-sufficiency in pulp
Q3 201564
Metsä Board’s associated company
Metsä Fibre builds a bioproduct mill
Capacity and deliveries
Production locations
Q3 201566
HusumÄänekoski
Simpele
Joutseno
Kemi
TakoKyro
Kaskinen
Paperboard mills
• Husum
• Kemi
• Kyro
• Tako
• Simpele
• Äänekoski
Pulp mills
• Husum
• Joutseno
• Kaskinen
Speciality paper mill
• Kyro
Production Capacity
Currently
Q3 201567
After implementation ofthe planned measures
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Paper Paperboard Pulp and BCTMP0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Wallpaper base Paperboard Pulp and BCTMP
Paperboard and paper capacity in 2015
Town Country Machines Folding
boxboard
White
fresh
forest fibre
linerboard
Uncoated
fine paper
Speciality
paper
Coated
paper
Total
Tampere
(Tako) Finland 2 205 205
Kyröskoski
(Kyro) Finland 2 190 105 295
Äänekoski Finland 1 240 240
Simpele Finland 1 300 300
Kemi Finland 1 410 410
Husum Sweden 3 170 400 240 810
Total 10 935 580 400 105 240 2,260
Q3 201568
1,000 t/a
Pulp capacity in 2015
Metsä Board
pulp mills
Country Chemical
pulp
BCTMP Total
Husum Sweden 750 750
Joutseno Finland 310 290
Kaskinen Finland 310 300
Total 750 620 1,340
Q3 201569
1,000 t/a
Metsä Fibre
pulp mills
Country Chemical
pulp
BCTMP Total
Äänekoski Finland 530 530
Kemi Finland 590 590
Rauma Finland 650 650
Joutseno Finland 690 690
Total 2,460 2,460
Metsä Board ownership share of Metsä Fibre is 24,9 %
Deliveries by region in 2014
Q3 201570
46%
27%
14%
13%
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Americas
Asia and Pacific
57%
6%
36%
1%
85%
11%
4%
Folding Boxboard Fresh forest fibre linerboard Uncoated fine paper
Cost structure and sourcingCost structure and sourcing
Cost structure in 2014
Q3 201572
Delivery costs15%
Wood25%
Chemicals, pigments and fillers
16%
Energy11%
Other variables
4%
Personnel 15%
Other fixed15%
Fixed
costs
Variable
costs
Electricity sourcing in 2014(total 2,737 GWh)
Q3 201573
Own generation23%
Through PVO shareholding
30%
Purchased energy47%
Fuels used in 2014(total 12.9 TWh)
Q3 201574
Wood-based59%
Nuclear power19%
Natural gas6%
Hydro5%
Coal7%
Oil1%
Peat3%
Wood sourcing by country in 2014(total 5.0 million cubic metres)
Sweden 37%
Finland27%
Baltic countries21%
Russia15%
Q3 201575
SourcingSustainability
Sustainability
Stakeholder engagement
• Ensuring ethical
business practices
• Improving safety at work
• Assuring responsible
management
• Contributing to local
livelihoods and society
Supply chain
• Promoting sustainable
forest management,
certification and the
diversity of forest nature
• Enhancing sustainability
in the value chain
• Ensuring the traceability
of raw materials
Resource efficiency and
emissions
• Making efficient use of
raw materials, energy,
water
• Increasing the value of
side streams
• Maximising the share of
bioenergy
• Minimising emissions to
water and air
Products and services
• Turning renewable wood
into sustainable, safe
and recyclable products
• Providing customer-
focused services and
solutions
• Innovating for
continuous improvement
and renewal
We offer sustainable choices
We bring the forest to you
We work for a better climate and environment
We create well-being
Lightweight paperboards improve sustainability
throughout the value chain
78
ENERGY
Energy efficiency
improvementTarget from 2009 to 2020
12%
Performance by 2014 7%
CLIMATE
Fossil CO2 emissions
per product tonneTarget from 2009 to 2020
-30%
Performance by 2014 -37%
RESOURCE EFFICIENCY
Process water use
per product tonneTarget from 2010 to 2020
-17%
Performance by 2014 -15%
BIOENERGY
Share of
total energy 62%
Q3 2015
Target level in Energy has recently been raised
from 10% to 12%.
• The amount of certified wood was 77%
• A new supply chain management target was
launched: to audit 100% of risk rated key
material suppliers against sustainability
criteria by end 2015
90% of all Metsä Board purchases,
excluding wood, come from countries
where we have own production
Q3 201579
Raw materials and supply chain management 2014
66
16
8
63 1
Finland
Sweden
Germany
Other EU
Outside Europe
Other
Metsä Board purchases by country, % (excl. wood supply)
• Share of wood based biofuels increased to
63% of total fuels
• Energy efficiency has been improved by 7%
from 2009
• Process water use per product tonne has
decreased by 15% from 2010
– 99% of the water we use is surface water
• Total reduction of fossile CO2 emissions has
been 37% since 2009
Q3 201580
Resource and environmental efficiency 2014
976
830 789
681
482
388 380
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Metsä Board greenhouse gas effect (CO2 equivalent, 1,000 tonnes)
• In 2014, Metsä Board’s lost-time accident
frequency rate was 12.0 (12.2 in 2013) and
sickness absenteeism rate 3.9 (3.9)
• Metsä Board aims to improve its lost-time
accident frequency rate by 10% each year.
The long-term target is zero
• The target is to keep the sickness
absenteeism rate at the best European
level and below 3% at all times0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q3 201581
Well-being and accident rate development 2014
Metsä Board sickness absenteeism
development, target < 3%
• Highest possible score 100/100 for the depth and quality of
climate change data (2014: 98/100 and 2013: 82/100).
• High scores indicate success in providing robust climate change
data and strong understanding of climate-related issues.
Leaders usually have a solid financial performance.
• Metsä Board recognized as world leader for corporate action on
water security.
Q3 201582
Metsä Board recognized as a leader for
corporate actions on climate change
CDP is an international, not-for-profit organization providing the only global system for companies
and cities to measure, disclose, manage and share vital environmental information. CDP works with
market forces, including 767 institutional investors with assets of US$92 trillion, to motivate
companies to disclose their impacts on the environment and natural resources and take action to
reduce them.
General info
Annual sales development
2313
30143319
4044
5898
6923
6564
6044
54605241
5624
4440
3236
24322605 2485
2108 2019 2008
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q3 201584
EUR million
EBITDA development
Q3 201585
179 186208 236 224
0
60
120
180
240
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1–Q3/15
EBITDA, excl. non-recurring itemsEUR million
1995, sales EUR 2.3 billion
Q3 201586
2014, sales EUR 2.0 billion
Focus on core businesses
17%
32%
12%
9%
12%
6%
9%3%
Paper
Pulp
Paperboard
Packaging
Tissue
MechanicalForest Products
Merchanting
Chemicals
24%
15%61%
Paper
Pulp
Paperboard
Q3 201587
True success story
2005 Structural change starts
Paper businesses over 80% of sales
Decision to exit paper business
2006 Strategic review launched
Restructuring and focused investment programme initiated, focus on paperboard
2007–2013 Streamlining and focused investments
Paper capacity reduction from about 5 million to 0.8 million annual tonnes
Major divestments incl. Graphic Papers and Map Merchants
Paperboard capacity increases
2013 Strategic review completed
Clear focus on paperboard
Paper production about a quarter of sales
2015 Strong position and growing
Europe’s leading producer of folding boxboard
The world’s leading manufacturer of coated white-top kraftliners
Exit from paper business (fully by end of 2017)
Q3 201588
100 000 B2
shares in
PVO
Acquisitions
Divestments
Biberist Paper Mill
UK Paper
Modo Paper
Zanders
Chemicals
Business
Botnia
WoodCorrugated
PackagingMD Papier Metsä
Tissue
Albbruck Savon
Sellu
Forestia
Kemiart
Liners (53 %)
8% in
Botnia
PSM
9% in
Botnia
Carton
plants
Map
New
Thames MB
Uruguay
Graphic
Papers
Part of
Reflex
Hallein
mill
1997 20001998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20092008 2010 2011
Rest of
Reflex
0.5% in
PVO
2012
7.3 % in Metsä Fibre
2013 2014
Alizay
mill Lielahti
real estate
2015
Gohrsmühle
mill
Simpele Mill
Metsä Board’s restructuring story
Significant Divestments
– EUR 3.7 billion in assets divested since 2001
Q3 201589
Year Divestiture Enterprise Value, EUR million
2015 Gohrsmühle mill in Germany neg.
2014 Lielahti real-estate 32
2013 Alizay property and other estates 22
2012 7.3% stake in Metsä Fibre 138
2012 0.5% stake in PVO 64
2011 Hallein 34
2009 Metsä-Botnia’s Uruguayan operations 300*
2008 Graphic Papers 750
2008 100,000 shares in PVO 80
2008 New Thames mill 82**
2007 Map Merchant Group 382
2007 Folding carton plants 60
2007 Botnia (9%) 240
2005 Botnia (8%) 164
2005 Savon Sellu 20
2005 Forestia (95%) 163
2004 Metsä Tissue 570
2002 Papierfabrik Albbruck 235
2001 MD Papier 300
2001 Noviant (19%) 41
3,679
* Cash portion
**Incl. pension liabilities
Metsä Board Corporate Management Team
as of 1 January 2015
Q3 201590
CEO
Mika Joukio
Marketing and Sales
Seppo Puotinen
Business Development
Sari Pajari
Production and Technology
Ari Kiviranta
Finance
Markus Holm
Human Resources
Susanna Tainio
SourcingSustainabilityOwners
Market cap and foreign owners
42 %
22 %
17 %
19 %
MetsäliittoCooperative
Domesticinstitutionalinvestors
Domestic privateinvestors
Foreign owners
Q3 201592
Ownership distribution
Rising market cap with more foreign owners
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Market cap, M€
Share of foreign owners, %
*) 13 November 2015
*
Shares, % (total no. of shares 355,512,746)
93
Votes, % (total no. of votes 1,037,530,115)
17,1
2,2
18,5
40,2
4,4
6,1
11,5
Households
Non-profitorganisations
Foreigners*
MetsäliittoCooperative
Other companies
Finance andinsurance companies
Public sectororganisations
10,1 4,1
6,6
60,9
1,82,1
14,5
Households
Non-profitorganisations
Foreigners*
MetsäliittoCooperative
Other companies
Finance andinsurance companies
Public sectororganisations
Ownership structure on 30 September 2015
* incl. nominee registeredSource: Euroland
Q3 2015
Katri Sundström
Vice President, Investor relations
Tel +358 400 976 333
katri.sundstrom@metsägroup.com
www.metsaboard.com
Q3 201594
Contact information