metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape...

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Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures Urban Futures Squaring the Circles 2050 – Europe, China and the Rest of the World October 10th -11th Aleksi Neuvonen Demos Helsinki/Radboud University Nijmegen [email protected] Twitter: @leksis Prof Peter Ache Radboud University Nijmegen [email protected]

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The presentation is based on a conference article by Aleksi Neuvonen and professor Peter Ache (Radboud University Nijmegen) and it was held at Urban Futures - Squaring Circles 2050: Europe, China and the World conference in Lisbon on October 11th 2014. It revisits the Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 process in 2006-2009 and evaluates it from the perspectives of backcasting scenarios and strategic learning.

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Page 1: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as strategic learning process to

shape metropolitan futuresUrban Futures Squaring the Circles 2050 – Europe, China and the Rest of the World

October 10th -11th

Aleksi NeuvonenDemos Helsinki/Radboud University [email protected]: @leksis

Prof Peter AcheRadboud University Nijmegen [email protected]

Page 2: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

1.The challenge: Entering the era of metropolitan spaces

2.The context: Helsinki metropolitan region

3.Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 ideas competition & follow-up process

4.Backcasting method

5.GHV2050 as a backcasting process

6.Conclusions

Page 3: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Urban mega-structures

Coalitions around ‘visionary field’

Competitiveness

Wicked problems

Incrementalism with perspective

Engaging visioning

Need for tools apt for managing metropolitan futures

Urban structures

Clear governance structures

Social cohesion

Limited, simple problems

Rational, incremental approach

Top-down processes

Page 4: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Helsinki metropolitan region(Europe - Nordic countries - Finland)

14 municipalities, no formal governance structure

Page 5: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Population: 1 400 000 (Finland: 5 410 000)Expected population 2030: 1 650 000GDP per capita: 48 682 €% of pop. with Academic Degree: 45.7

Page 6: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Jury protocol: http://www.safa.fi/document.php?DOC_ID=477&SEC=3b7e84702d5cd67f9d9cc253bb456b30&SID=1

The case

Page 7: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

P_EMP /

7These entries were awarded

Page 8: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

20502014 20302020

20502050

Future 1

Future 2

Future 3

Future 4

Scenarios

Goals,Boundary conditions, ‘perspective’

Method: Backcasting scenario process

Decisions

Unexpected events

Promising practices

DriversLong-term

trends

Incremental stepsSlow implementation processes

Page 9: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Method: Backcasting timeline technique (counting backwards)

Page 10: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 and its follow-up process were not scenario exercises. However, we tried to analyze the process as an exercise of backcasting scenario approach that included a notion on acceptable futures and description on step-by-step change.

Page 11: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Backcasting 1: soft space initiatives and timelines (ideas competition)

Page 12: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Backcasting 2: learning through evaluation of radical ideas distilled from competition entries

(follow-up process)

Page 13: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Backcasting 3: platform for a coalition, vision and a new plan (the current 14 municipality planning process)

20502014 20402025

Long-term structural plan

Implementation plan

Vision for implementation

Metropolitan council elections (National government decision in 2014)

2017

Helsinki region cooperation process: http://www.helsinginseutu.fi/hki/HS/The+Region+of+Helsinki/Cooperation+in+the+region

Page 14: Metropolitan Vision Making – Using Backcasting as a Strategic Learning Process to Shape Metropolitan Futures

Conclusions1. The need to expand the problem solving capacity beyond existing

governance structures and its incumbent experts is there.

2. Open processes are needed; ‘vision’ and ‘backcasting’ are tools for searching out-of-the-box solutions

3. ‘Emancipatory backcasting’ can bring about strategic learning on new constraints and emerging opportunities.

4. Planning processes in metropolitan contexts are complex and require engaging different levels of institutions and stakeholders. Vision can help in coordinating this action and creating ownership to implementation.

5. Incrementalism with perspective approach should be considered as an alternative to naive utopian blue-printing and cynical, vision-less muddling through.