methods to quantify human effects on marine ecosystems samuli korpinen ospar icg-c, ijmuiden...
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Methods to quantify human effects on marine ecosystems
Samuli KorpinenOSPAR ICG-C, IJmuiden 26.2.2015
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The review of the three methods
• Familiarizing with the methods• Making criteria for a comparison
1. Scientific credibility: pressures, ecosystem components, impacts2. Spatial resolution and flexibility3. Flexibility in data formats4. Transparency5. Clarity6. Temporal aspect7. Flexibility for different purposes8. Efficacy of the method
• Analyzing differences• Finding similarities• Potential to merge the methods
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1. The HARMONY method
Halpern et al. 2008
, where:P: a pressure (scoring 0-1),E: an ecosystem or its component (scoring 0-1),μ: an impact score for each PxE combination (scoring 0-4)
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Sanderson E W et al. BioScience 2002;52:891-904
© 2002 American Institute of Biological Sciences
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Baltic Sea Impact Index + North Sea Impact Index
HEL
COM
201
0, K
orpi
nen
et a
l. 20
12
Regional adaptations:•A web survey for the effect scores, incl. a self assessment of own expertise.•Spatial extent of effect was estimated by the web survey.•Habitat presence 0/1 but species presence by probability (0-1).•A software (impact mapper) was made:
• Calculates an activity index, pressure index and impact index;
• Calculates potential impacts for selected activities or ecosystem components.
For different ecosystem components
Andersen et al. 2013
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2. The CUMULEO method
The method briefly:-The oldest of the three methods several versions published.-The only method which uses data-driven estimates for impacts.-E.g. CUMULEO-RAM where effects are linked to species productivity.-Van der Wal & Tamis 2014: effect is estimated as habitat loss (%).
6DeVries et al. 2011
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3. The ODEMM method• Linkage framework: activities – pressures – ecosystem (
impact chain).• Counts the number of acute impacts.• Takes account of ’combined impacts’ two chronic impacts in
a same area become an acute one.
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HARMONY ODEMMCUMULEO
Pressure GIS data(Habitat
loss, km2)
Ecosystem GIS data (species
diversity/group)
Pressure GIS data
(intensity 0-1)
Ecosystem GIS data
(presence 0-1)
Pressure GIS data
(presence 0/1)
Ecosystem GIS data
(presence 0/1)
Comparison of the methods
PRESSURE DATA-Assessment area divided to units (e.g. grid cells).-Pressures defined.-Spatial data covers the entire assessment area.
Differences:-CUMULEO + HARMONY: intensity;-ODEMM: presence/absence.
ECOSYSTEM DATA-Components defined.-Spatial data covers the entire assessment area.-Presence/absence
Differences:-HARMONY: probability of occurrence;-CUMULEO: weighting of data.
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HARMONY ODEMMCUMULEO
Pressure GIS data(Habitat
loss, km2)
Ecosystem GIS data (species
diversity/group)
Pressure GIS data
(intensity 0-1)
Ecosystem GIS data
(presence 0-1)
Pressure GIS data
(presence 0/1)
Ecosystem GIS data
(presence 0/1)
Impact score0-1: consisting of
impact level, impact extent, recovery time
Impact score0-1: consisting of studied impact on
habitat use
Degree of impact:
low, chronic, acute
Recovery time: low, moderate,
high, severe
Comparison of the methods
CUMULEO IMPACT SCORES-Impacts from studies-E.g. how much habitat is lost? How much fish stock is caught? Etc.-Normalized to 0-1 scale.
HARMONY IMPACT SCORES-Impacts from expert judgment, 0-4 scale.-The score is the mean of three criteria:
- impact extent,- recovery time- impact level
-Also a weighted mean-Confidence estimate
ODEMM IMPACT SCORES-Categorical: Low, Chronic, Acute-Only acute pressures are counted.-If a pressure is caused by two different activities 2 (or more) chronic become acute ’combined impact’.
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Comparison of the methods
The main difference is that HARMONY and CUMULEO calculate ’cumulative effects’ but ODEMM calculates ’the number of effecting pressures’.
A sligthly similar approach was used in HELCOM holistic assessment:
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Testing the robustness of the index
9 scenarios: 3 random pressure data sets and 3 random ecosystem data sets
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Testing the robustness of the index
3 impact scores: expert given, random and equal
We also tested how much the impact scores affect if there is fewer data in the index. The result was clear: the impact scores have a stronger effect with fewer pressure data sets.
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Crain et al. 2008
Cumulative effectsSY
NER
GIS
TIC
ANTA
GO
NIS
TIC
ADD
ITIV
E
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Linkage with the state of the sea?
Andersson et al. 2015
Halpern et al. 2008Percent degradation
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