Methods for evaluating freshwater ecosystem services in support of decision making

David Yates (RAP), Claudia Tebaldi (CGD), Kathleen Miller (ESIG), Susi Moser (ESIG)

Other Collaborators: David Purkey, Natural Heritage Institute, Sacramento CaliforniaHector Galbraith, University of Colorado, Boulder Annette Huber-Lee, SEI/Tellus, MIT BostonOthers.. (University of California Davis and Stanford University)

Climate & Climate Change

Physical Hydrology

Watershed Management

Decisions:•Sykes Reservoir•FERC Relicensing•Conjunctive Use•System Operations

Socio-Economics

Decision-Makers•CALFED•State Assembly•California Water Dept•Others

EcosystemServices

credibility

Integrated Decision Support

relevancy

legitimacy

Water quantityWater quality

Seasonality of flowRegulation

Water for agriculture

Domestic water

Water for industry

Water for nature

Water for recreation

Integrating framework placed in the contextof a “Trade-off” landscape

Physical Hydrology and Water Management

Seamlessly integrating watershed hydrologic processes with water resources management.

Ecosystem services

Ecosystem•components•processes

Goods and Services

H2OQuantityQualitySeasonalityGovernance

Ecosystem•components•processes

Goods and Services

H2OQuantityQualitySeasonalityGovernance

Ecosystem Service Evaluation

Ecosystem Service Evaluation

Ecosystem•components•processes

Goods and Services

H2OQuantityQualitySeasonalityGovernance

Ecosystem•components•processes

Goods and Services

H2OQuantityQualitySeasonalityGovernance

Ecosystem services

Wetland – water flow slowed by:•Low gradient•Hydrophilic soils•Channel morphology•Plant roots and leaves•Land use planning

Seasonal flooding1st Order DecayChannelization

Flood/Drought

Water purification

Biodiversity/Rec

Ecosystem services in the SFBW

Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use

Recre-

ation, aesth. beauty

Trans-port

Power gener.

Nutr. cycl-ing

Regen. of soil fertility

Water for ag., urban, indust.

Har-vest. biota

Flood/

drought

mitig.

Water purifi-

cation

Ero-sion

con-trol

Habitat/

biodi-versity

Bay

Delta

Lower Rivers

Upper Rivers

Recre-

ation, aesth. beauty

Trans-port

Power gener.

Nutr. cycl-ing

Regen. of soil fertility

Water for ag., urban, indust.

Har-vest. biota

Flood/

drought

mitig.

Water purifi-

cation

Ero-sion

con-trol

Habitat/

biodi-versity

Bay

Delta

Lower Rivers

Upper Rivers

But what is needed are high resolution time series for the entire watershed

Climate and climate change

WNAWNABayesian model gives regional distributions of seasonal changes

The Inter-Disciplinary Framework

Ecosystem Service Assessment Properties

(ESAPs)

Ecosystem Service Indicators/Params

(ESIPs)

Ecosystem Service Prioritization and

SelectionStakeholder

Process

Scenario Development:

Climate, Land, Pop

ESIP/model estimate variance

Water Resources Modeling

Change in Eco Service

Translation Functions(Models)

ADAPTAT ION

Stylized schematic of Sacramento(garnering credibility)

Sacramento River Basin: • 50+ watersheds• Reservoirs• Central Valley Groundwater• Canals and DiversionsDemands:• Ag. & Urban Atm.• Municipal and Industrial• Reserves, Instream• Regional Diversions

Whiskey town

Pit

Cow

Battle

Cotton-Wood

Shasta Trinity

Clear

Oroville

Upper Feather

Almanor

Yolo B

ypass

Tehem

a

Chico

Butte

Sutter B

ypass

Thomes

Clear

Black Butte

Colusa

Cache

Putah

Bullards Bar Yuba

Bear

Folsom

Coon

Lower American

Upper American

Sacramento Weir

Feather

Upper Pit

McCloud

Delta

Sacram

ento R

iver

N. Pit

Pit Virt Res

San Joaquin Inflows

Irrigated Agriculture

M&I Water Demand

Rivers and Tributaries Inter-Basin Transfer

Reservoir

Instream Flow Requirement

Groundwater

WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed

WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed

Calibration and Validation

Model Evaluation (1961-1999):1. Flows Along Mainstem and Tributaries

2. Reservoir Storage and Release

3. Trinity Diversion

4. Agricultural Water Demand

5. Groundwater Storage Trends

6. Yolo Bypass Flood Inundation

7. Sacramento River Water Temperature

Streamflow reproduction for select watershed

Reservoir Storage Reproduction

FOLSOM Reservoir

0.E+00

2.E+05

4.E+05

6.E+05

8.E+05

1.E+06

1.E+06

Oct

-56

Oct

-58

Oct

-60

Oct

-62

Oct

-64

Oct

-66

Oct

-68

Oct

-70

Oct

-72

Oct

-74

Oct

-76

Oct

-78

Oct

-80

Oct

-82

Oct

-84

Oct

-86

Oct

-88

Oct

-90

Oct

-92

Oct

-94

Oct

-96

Oct

-98

Obs

Model

88 Rule Rev

Old Operating Rule

New Operating Rule

Probabilities ofClimate Change

Probabilities of change in

Hydrological Variables

Decisions onAdaptation Planning

(e.g. new storage infrastructure)

Presently, difficult to determine densities of hydrologic variables

flow“Joint” scenarios

Presently, difficult to determine densities of hydrologic variables

Probabilities ofClimate Change

Probabilities of change in

Hydrological Variables

Decisions onAdaptation Planning

(e.g. new storage infrastructure)

?T

P flow

What is the joint probability?CSIRO and CCC heavily weighted in determining the winter distributions

Western North America Climate Scenarios

But not consistent-

These same models are given less weight for the summer distributions

Western North America Climate Scenarios

A stage along the way to getting at probabilities…Stylized Scenarios using K-nn

WmDry

WmDryT2

WtWnt

WtWntT2

WtWntT4

VWtWntr

VWtWntrT3

(Yates et al. 2002)

Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Tmp (55 Stn, ~40 yrs)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

C

Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Precip. (55 Stn., ~40 yrs)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

mm

Stylized Sacramento Climate Scenarios

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

hist

WrmDry (+1.9C)

WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)

WtWnt (+0.9C)

WtWntT2 (+3.2C)

WtWntT4 (+5.2C)

VWtrWnt (+3.2)

VWtWntT3 (+6.2)

Assumed No Irrigation or Storage

Irrigation w/ all Available Storage

Avg. Monthly River flows below Yolo and Sacramento

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

acre

-fee

t x

1e6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

hist

WrmDry (+1.9C)

WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)

WtWnt (+0.9C)

WtWntT2 (+3.2C)

WtWntT4 (+5.2C)

VWtrWnt (+3.2)

VWtWntT3 (+6.2)

Avg. Monthly River Flows below Yolo and Sacramento

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

acre

-fee

t x

1E

6

Whiskey town

Pit

Cow

Battle

Cotton-Wood

Shasta Trinity

Clear

Oroville

Upper Feather

Almanor

Yolo B

ypass

Tehem

a

Chico

Butte

Sutter B

ypass

Thomes

Clear

Black Butte

Colusa

Cache

Putah

Bullards Bar Yuba

Bear

Folsom

Coon

Lower American

Upper American

Sacramento Weir

Feather

Upper Pit

McCloud

Delta

Sacram

ento R

iver

N. Pit

Pit Virt Res

San Joaquin Inflows

River Flow

Sacramento @ Butte Avg. Water Temps.

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

C

Sacramento @ Butte Avg. Water Temps.

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

C

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

hist

WrmDry (+1.9C)

WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)

WtWnt (+0.9C)

WtWntT2 (+3.2C)

WtWntT4 (+5.2C)

VWtrWnt (+3.2)

VWtWntT3 (+6.2)

Assumed No Irrigation or Storage

Irrigation w/ all Available Storage

Whiskey town

Pit

Cow

Battle

Cotton-Wood

Shasta Trinity

Clear

Oroville

Upper Feather

Almanor

Yolo B

ypass

Tehem

a

Chico

Butte

Sutter B

ypass

Thomes

Clear

Black Butte

Colusa

Cache

Putah

Bullards Bar Yuba

Bear

Folsom

Coon

Lower American

Upper American

Sacramento Weir

Feather

Upper Pit

McCloud

Delta

Sacram

ento R

iver

N. Pit

Pit Virt Res

San Joaquin Inflows

Water Temperature

threshold

threshold

1. Refine Water Resources Model to able to address relevant issues

• FERC Re-licensing of the Yuba, American Bear

• Sykes Reservoir Analysis

• Others..

2. Regional Scenarios

Develop complete probabilistic approach w/ Bivariate Bayesian Model

3. Refine Ecosystem service evaluation by placing into an uncertainty construct

4. Legitimacy: Continue to engage relevant stakeholders in model development and application process, especially utility of probabilistic results!

Plans for ‘05