methodology, first results and data for review and comments

Wood Resource Balance 2007:

Methodology, first results and data for review and comments; Integration with EFSOS II wood energy scenario

Background Paper (2) for the

UNECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Sector Outlook and Outlook Correspondents

Second, extended Team meeting, 23-24 November 2009

Prepared by

Florian Steierer, UNECE/FAO with Udo Mantau, University Hamburg

[email protected], [email protected]

This paper provides, in a first part, an overview of the Wood Resource Balance, its construction and various data sources. In a second part, it present possibili-ties for integrating the WRB with the EFSOS II wood energy scenario. National delegates to the Team of Specialists and outlook correspondents are invited to:

- review national data presented in the Wood Resource Balance for the refer-ence year 2007;

- contribute to the efforts on improved conversion factors, undertaken by the UNECE/FAO Timber Section (see also separate paper);

- Comment on the methodology as well as the linkages between the different models, calculations and assessments applied for the EFSOS II wood energy scenario.

ToS members and outlook correspondents not able to attend the ToS meeting are invited to send comments on the data (see Annex) directly to Florian Steierer at [email protected].

Background Paper for the ToS on Forest Sector Outlook: Methodology and first results of the Wood Resource Balance 2007, Integration with EFSOS II wood energy scenario

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Content:

1 Actual biomass demand and supply ................................................... 3

1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 3

1.2 Structure of a Wood Resource Balance .............................................. 3

1.3 Data availability and data sources....................................................... 6

1.4 Data finding process............................................................................. 6

1.4.1 Measuring wood fibres’ cascaded use .................................................... 8

1.5 Results ................................................................................................. 10

1.5.1 Woody biomass supply from forest and other sources ......................... 10 1.5.2 Material and energy demand for woody biomass.................................. 12

1.6 Conclusions from the Wood Resource Balance 2007: .................... 13

2 Future supply and demand................................................................. 13

2.1 The Wood Resource Balance and scenarios.................................... 13

3 References........................................................................................... 17

4 Annex: .................................................................................................. 18

Disclaimer:

This report has been extracted from an ongoing project and hence presents a preliminary overview on the methodology and first results of the Wood Re-source Balance 2007. The purpose of sharing this draft version is to inform the member of the UNECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Sector Out-look about the current work that has already been accomplished. It is hoped by the authors that this document will facilitate further cooperation and un-derstanding of the different specialists.

Professor Dr. Udo Mantau, Hamburg University, is currently working on a more detailed English language version of the methodology and structure of the Wood Resource Balance as developed and applied for the German wood and wood products’ market.


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1 Actual biomass demand and supply

1.1 Introduction

In the beginning of the 21st century, the global forest products market is af-fected by strong changes. The use of wood for energy generation is no longer limited to heating homes’ fireplaces only, but clearly becomes a new industry branch. Moreover, wood is newly discovered as raw material for chemical prod-ucts. Scarcities on the supply side cause a differentiation of the choice of raw materials, in which recycling products e.g. post-consumer recovered wood gain importance and new raw material sources e.g. short rotation crops are de-manded.

Thus, the evaluation of economic and forest policy decisions becomes more difficult due to a more complex forest products market as well as only partly given information about supply and demand of raw materials in traditional statis-tics. A framework is needed, which presents the entity of sectors and their in-teractions. The wood resource balance can serve as the tool to close this gap.

International timber production and trade statistics (e.g. Joint Forest Sector Questionnaire of the UNECE/FAO/Eurostat/ITTO) provide best internationally available data on wood removals, trade and production. Inherent to their struc-ture, these statistics are consistent as subcategories always sum up to the main product category. Definitions and classifications of the commodities are bound to international production and trade (SITC

1 and HS

2) definitions and classifica-

tions.

Hence they cover economically important activities of the first transformation (sawnwood, pulp, panel production) of the wood and timber markets to a great extent. Nevertheless, trade statistics are not able to cover informal trade (e.g. wood use by private households) wood residues and waste recovery streams (e.g. black liquor, post consumer recovered wood). For a long time this informa-tion deficiency on minor wood fibre sources did not matter, as overall sufficient wood resources were readily available and sustainable forest management was a matter of course.

Pace keeping with fast changing markets requires a more holistic assessment method for wood volumes and flows. The wood resource balance easily inte-grates cross-sectoral information from various sources, going far beyond exist-ing trade and production classifications of the forest based industries.

1.2 Structure of a Wood Resource Balance

The structure of the wood resource balance is based on the German wood resource balance scheme developed, applied and refined by MANTAU (2005). The main advantage is its possibility to detect and roughly estimate missing or

1 SITC – Standard International Trade Classification (United National Statistical Commission)

2 HS – Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (World Customs Organization)


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weak information by comparing the two sides. Results of the German wood resource balance indicate that unregistered (legal) cuttings occur and may be of significant proportion of the supply. The key solution for improved information in Germany was a comprehensive empiric assessment of the forest based sector, including marginal commodities such as fuel wood use in private households and post consumer recovered wood.

The structure of the wood resource biomass is not fixed. If new sources or us-ers occur that are not included in the HS or CN yet, they can be added. STEIERER (in MANTAU et al. 2007) included processed based fuel production and use while calculating the European wood resource balance 2007. Their market volumes and values increase at such pace that it is not applicable any-more to integrate it in sawmill by products as it is still done in the HS and like it was the case before 2009 in the CN in Europe. Thus the balance approach is very flexible and sectors can be added or differentiated, depending on the fo-cus, as long as any action is counterbalanced on each side. Depending on the level of details in resource statistics partial wood resource balances can be derived, like e.g. shown in figure 1-1 post-consumer recovered wood.

Table 1- 1: Woody biomass terms and sectors

woody biomass

sources uses

stemwood (logs) saw mill industry (logs)

stemwood (other) veneer and plywood ind. (logs)

forest residues pulp industry forest woody biomass

bark panel industry

landscape care wood other

wood industry

primary woody biomass from other land

short rotation plantations bark mulch industry

saw mill by-products chemical industry

other solid industrial restwood other

other industrial user of woody biomass

industrial residues

black liquor pellets & briquettes

recycled woody biomass post consumer wood processed chips and other

pellets & briquettes biomass to liquid industry

energy product producer

energy products processed chips and others biomass power plants (> 1 MW)

biomass power plants (< 1 MW)

households

other energy end user

energy end user

total total

Source: UNECE/FAO Joint Wood Energy Enquiry 2007

A wood resource balance compares the entire supply of wood fibres with its use for material and energy purposes in a national economy. It is a consistency check of national wood flows that counter-checks the balance sheet total of all sources of wood material against the independently derived balance sheet total of the consumption side. It includes wood fibres import and export at national level. Generally it is possible to take stock changes into account as well, but by practical reasons (lack of data) it is not included.

The EUwood project developed, based on harmonised calculations and as-sumptions, national wood resource balances for each country. In a second


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step, the regional wood resource balance for the EU 27/EFTA region is calcu-lated as the sum of different national wood resource balances.

Every resource sector is composed of different segments. After determining the domestic availability based on official statistics. The domestic supply is ex-tended by imports and reduced by exports. Unfortunately, few data are avail-able only about stock levels. Inventory modifications also affect the domestic availability. The amount of the domestically available wood raw materials is finally assigned to the different demand sectors.

The information from official databases is completed by inquiries in sectors not documented in official statistics (e.g. black liquor, pellets, etc.). If neither statis-tics nor inquiries are available model calculation by conversion factors and other information are undertaken.

For commodity flow analysis further information the distribution structure and/or the procurement structure is needed. The following figure is a rough documen-tation of the results for the post consumer wood sector in Germany.

Figure 1-1: Flow chart of post consumer wood sector in Germany in Mt (air dry) (2004)

5,963 89,8% 6,638 100,0% 0,674 10,2%

0,568 8,6% 0,017 0,3% 0,849 11,3%

0,000 0,0% 6,339 100,0% 3,323 52,4%

1,475 23,3% 0,681 10,7%

0,000 0,0% 0,674 10,6%

0,186 2,9% 0,000 0,0%

domestic availability

stock changes

saw mill industry housholds

other material uses other energy user

panel industry

import export

domestoc supply

energy plants < 1 MW

pulp industry energy plants > 1 MW

disposal plants unrecorded uses

Source: MANTAU, U.: Wood resource balance methodology, June 2010

Similarly, all other sectors are analyzed and quantified. Finally all sectors can be summarized in a matrix of resource flows. In contrast to the methodology applied in Germany, the actual study does not rely on empirically collected data, although it is hoped to at least partially remedy this in the follow up to the study. It considers only publicly available information and data from international data-bases and enquiries from different sectors such as waste, energy, etc. and hence could be effectively considered as a survey of surveys.

Despite the comprehensive approach, regional (EU/EFTA) and national wood resource balances cover intra-European trade only as far as international timber


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trade statistics do. A lower wood fibre consumption than wood fibre supply in a national wood resource balance might indicate an “unknown use” (e.g. energy generation in private households) or could otherwise also be a hint on unre-corded intra-regional trade (e.g. between the Netherlands and Belgium). Fibres from recovered paper and cardboard are not included in the balance (for both the supply and use) so far as the wood resource balance was limited to wood raw material and products flows to and within the forest based industries. How-ever, these details could be easily included as well.

1.3 Data availability and data sources

Before assessing the real future potential for sustainable woody biomass supply from European forests it is required to draw a very accurate picture of the cur-rent situation. Projecting the future development and potentials can only be in the right order of magnitude, if the starting point is known precisely enough.

Previous work by some members of the EUwood project3 consortium clearly

indicates that international databases on wood products production seem to have difficulties to report correctly on intra-regional trade (e.g. Intra-European trade) as well as marginal markets with informal trading patterns (e.g. wood removals in privately owned forests for energy generation in private households, untreated post consumer recovered wood used for energy generation, etc.). The EUwood project decided to start the assessment with a revised European

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Wood Resource Balance referenced to 2007 enabling a more precise assess-ment of the current situation of wood flow pattern between different wood fibre sources and uses at national as well as regional level.

The EUwood study uses many different databases for the assessment of the actual values. In case of missing or weak data, the wood resource balance used conversion factors from the UNECE/FAO Task Force on conversion fac-tors.

The Wood Resource Balance uses, due to the above described lack of empiri-cal data at national level, several databases from forestry, wood processing industry, energy and waste sectors. These data can be distinguished by direct national data (use without changing the unit), indirect national data (use after applying a simple conversion factor).

However, national forest products data of the UNECE/FAO/ITTO/Eurostat Joint Forest Sector Questionnaire, the Joint Wood Energy Enquiry and the Eurostat Energy statistics are the main sources and hence the backbone of these calcu-lations for the Wood Resource Balance 2007.

1.4 Geographical scope

The wood resource balance 2007 covers the region of the EU 27 and includes also Norway and Switzerland. Not all the databases provide a complete dataset

3 UNECE/FAO wood resource balances 2005

4 EU 27/EFTA


7

for all countries of the EU/EFTA and hence need to be supplemented, cross-referenced and/or benchmarked to other data sources. The current work of the EUwood process focuses on drawing the most precise picture of the current supply and use of wood in the EU/EFTA region. It has not been extended to countries outside this region, due to lacking standardized databases beyond the Joint Forest Sector Questionnaire (JFSQ).

However, the planned future Wood Resource Balances 2015 & 2030 for the outlook study will use the projections of the forest products markets as well as the wood energy targets/markets for any country in the target region.

Conversion factors are going to play an central role in modelling and calculating the future wood resource balances. Therefore the fundamental work under-taken by the Task Force on conversion factors is contributing essential informa-tion for the construction of the future wood resource balances..

1.5 Data finding process

Some national data require estimates based on a set of assumptions, esti-mates, comparison with an average from other countries, conversion factors and plausibility checks. This is in particularly necessary for those items where data coverage and/or quality is weak for the entire item or certain details like e.g. post consumer recovered wood.

In order to compare all different commodities, a common unit is needed. There-fore, all figures in the wood resource balance are converted into roundwood equivalent (cubic metre of solid volume under bark). This is the usual unit for wood removals, production and trade data, and therefore conversions are needed in fewer cases on the supply side of the balance. On the use side each wood processing techniques of the different forest based sector industries re-quires individual conversion factors for each processing type (e.g. chemical bleached pulp) to calculate the sector specific roundwood equivalent of the recorded production. Therefore, conversion factors are required to convert cu-bic metre sawnwood, cubic metre panelboard or metric tonnes of wood pulp or energy unit into cubic metre roundwood.

The Wood Resource Balance uses standardized data finding processes that are applied to all countries. However, due to varying data coverage for each industry sector of the wood resource balance, it was necessary to specifically adopt a single data finding process for each specific column (see Annex) of the wood resource balance for each of the following wood fibre sources and con-sumers:


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Wood fibre sources Wood fibre consumption

Industrial roundwood & Fuel-wood

Sawmill sector for each of the products: Sawn softwood, sawn hardwood.

Bark Panel industry for each of the products: Par-ticle board, OSB, MDF, Hardboard, Plywood, Veneer.

Used logging residues Pulp and paper production for each of the products: sulphate pulp (bleached, un-bleached), sulphite pulp (bleached, un-bleached), semi-chemical, mechanical.

Woody biomass outside the forest

Energy production for each of the sector (if available): main energy producer, autopro-ducer, households, services, other.

Chips and particles Processed wood based fuel production

Wood residues

(excluding wood pellets)

Post consumer recovered wood

Pulp production by-products

Processed wood based fuels – (wood pellets)

1.5.1 Measuring wood fibres’ cascaded use

Wood is a highly versatile material being used and reused in many different processes. By-products of the wood-processing industry (chips from sawmill industry) are an important raw material for further processing. They can easily be used directly in on-site integrated processes (e.g. black liquor for energy generation or pellets production by sawmills) or they are sold to trader and/or producer using the fibres for subordinated processing (e.g. chips from sawmill used for pulp production, sawdust for panel production, etc.). Wood fibres that reappear as “secondary” raw material increase the overall wood availability on the market. This kind of cascade use can be documented by the wood resource balance.

It is sometimes seen as “double-counting”, but this kind of cascade use is a typical advantage of wood resources. On the other hand without including cas-cade use, the wood resource balance would be incomplete. However, it is al-ways possible to set up special wood resource balances for forest resources, industrial rest wood, post consumer wood or others. This is already done in the flow chart models of the wood resources balance in Germany where sufficient empirical data are available. In this case the wood resource balance is not set up on its own, but is the sum of the flow charts models of all resources.


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The wood resource balance translates fibres’ reuse by cascade counting of wood fibres on the supply side. Subordinated production processes that use by-products, residues or recovered wood to at least some extent (e.g. wood pellets production, panel industry, incineration, etc.) counterbalance the cascade counting of the use side. When reporting properly all wood fibres supplies and uses, cascade-counting does not introduce a systematic over- or underestima-tion of either the wood supply or wood use, but it enlarges the balance sheet total on both sides.

The increase of the balance sheet total by accounting for the multiple uses may be a suitable indicator for the material efficiency and the level of cascaded use of wood fibres by the national forest based sectors. A higher difference between initially harvested and supplied wood volumes from the forest (“supply forest”) and the balance sheet total (“total supply”) indicates a better integrated and more (material) efficient forest based sector. The inclusion of re-used fibres on the supply side allows accounting for net trade (import and export) of those items. Similar to wood products, international trade can play an important role for wood by-products and residues in some countries. International trade be-comes particularly important for wood pellets.(see “processed wood based fuels”).

Example: A saw log (supply) enters a sawmill. Sawnwood (use) is produced, as well as wood chips (supply), which is available for further use. These chips might enter the next process - e.g. the pulp production (use). After the (chemi-cal) pulping process the contained lignin (and hemi-celluloses) end up as black liquor (supply) – which is then used for energy generation (use). Hence the triple supply of the fibre is counterbalanced by triple use

Converted to solid cubic metre equivalents, the same fibre might be reported three or more times as source that feeds into a downstream wood use. Hence, each cascade counting of wood fibres on the supply side is balanced out by an additional fibre demanding process.

Finished or semi-finished wood products (e.g. sawn wood) are considered as wood fibres leaving the circulation for a longer period - until they reappear as post consumer recovered wood. Only landfilled wood (not shown in the bal-ance) and energy use can be considered as real final wood use.

The results of this study may provide a rough approximation for the order of magnitude of this factor. Only empirical research will enable a more precise knowledge on real efficiencies and the role of cascaded use of raw materials at national level.

The cascade-factor of the EU/EFTA wood resource balances (2005 and 2007) is 1.6 (827 M m³ overall use / 540 M m³ wood supply from forest). The trend of this indicator shows a slightly increasing trend – implying that wood fibres are use in a more efficient way. At country level, especially Poland, Czech Republic, France, Bulgaria, Lithuania show the lowest cascaded use. Their re-use indica-tor is smaller than 1.3. This implies that only

1/3 of the “fresh fibres” from forests


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and outside forests is re-used in any subsequent processing (other than energy use).

1.6 Results

1.6.1 Woody biomass supply from forest and other sources

The wood resource balance 2007 indicates again after the wood resource bal-ance 2005 that the “fresh” woody biomass directly from forests and outside forests accounts for a little less of 2/3 (65%) of the wood fibre supply in the EU 27 region assessed. The wood resource balance 2007 includes already an increased fibre supply arising from forest residues and woody biomass from outside forests. International databases on forest products do not account the equivalent of 3% (32 million m³) higher removals from these sources.

Table 1-2: Fresh fibres’ share in total domestic supply:

Maximum Minimum

Poland 84% Spain 40%

Czech Republic 83% Portugal 37%

France 78% Luxembourg 34%

Bulgaria 75% Cyprus 26%

Lithuania 72% Netherlands 19%

Source: EUwood first results

About 3% of the fibres origins in the EU 27 region are unknown. Despite the conversions factors, assumptions and data qualities it can be assumed that

Figure 1- 2: Wood fibre supply by sources (2007)

Wood fibres sources EU/EFTA2%3%

7%

65%

24%

Fresh fibres

Secondary fibres

Recovered wood

Unknown

processed wood fuels



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some unknown origins also arise from unknown removals from forests and outside forests.

Wood fibres from wood processing by-products (chips and particles, wood resi-dues and residues from pulp production) account for about 23% of the wood fibres supply in the region.

As described before, the wood resource balance carefully “improved” data on the wood resource balance. Hence it increased ships and particles by 31 million m³ and wood residues likewise by 3 million m³. This represents an equivalent of a little more than 4% of the total wood fibre demand by the forest based indus-tries in the region.

Table 1-3: Secondary fibres’ (by-products) share in total domestic supply::

Maximum Minimum

Slovakia 37% Bulgaria 11%

Finland 35% Latvia 10%

Norway 33% Cyprus 8%

Lithuania 35% Greece 8%

Sweden 31% Denmark 4%


Post consumer recovered wood accounted for about 7% of the wood fibres supply in the region.

Table 1-4: Post consumer recovered wood share in total domestic supply:

Maximum Minimum

Netherlands 39% Latvia 2%

United King-dom

37% Finland 2%

Italy 29% Austria 2%

Belgium 21% Slovakia 2%

Ireland 16% Sweden 1%

Table 1-5: Processed wood based fuels share in total domestic sup-ply:


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Maximum Minimum

Netherlands 32% … …

Denmark 23% … …

Belgium 13% … …

Italy 6% … …

United King-dom

6% … …


1.6.2 Material and energy demand for woody biomass

The processed wood based fuel industries are among the fastest growing forest based industries. Still, they account for a total consumption of only 1.5% of the total wood fibres available at regional level. However, this is already nearly twice the amount that is used by the OSB producing industry. The European Biomass Energy Association (ABIOM) published a “Pellet roadmap for Europe”, estimating that the pellets consumption and production in the region considered could account for up to 50 million metric tonnes

5 (about 100 million m

3). This

would mean that the pellets producing sector would become the third largest wood fibre consuming industry after the pulp producing (195 million m

3) and the

sawmill sectors (180 million m3) by 2020.

5 Therefore it can be estimated that the use of pellets for heating purposes in the residential,

services and industrial sectors might reach 50 Mt in 2020,

Figure 1-3: Wood fibre consumption by sector (2007)

Wood fibres consumption EU/EFTA

24%

22%

11%1%

42%

Energy

Sawmill sector

Pulp industries

Panel industries

Processed wood fuel



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1.7 Conclusions from the Wood Resource Balance 2007:

Aim of the wood resource balance is to outline difficulties of missing flows and weak data. Therefore huge effort has been made to detect unreported flows. However, it is important to mention that estimates and expert estimates cannot replace reliable empirical data.

• Compared to the first wood resource balance (UNECE/FAO 2006), the second edition could reduce the amount of wood fibres of unknown origin.

• Thus, the regional wood resource balance detected unrecorded and/or ne-glected wood fibre volumes accounting for 230 million m³.

• International forest based statistics seem to miss the production and/or trade of 100 million m³.

• The wood resource balance improved information on the regional wood fibres supply and demand to the maximum extent. Thus it attributed roundwood equivalents of 66 million m³ to specific sources that are defined, but not accounted for international forest product production and trade da-tabases (chips and particles, residues).

• It can be assumed that about 29 million m³ are subject of unrecorded intra European trade.

• Neglected wood fibre sources are not defined by international wood prod-ucts’ statistics and remain unreported. These volumes account for at least for 130 million m³.

• Black liquor (75 million m³)

• Post consumer recovered wood (55 million m³)

The wood resource balance could not explain the origin of another missing volume of 22 million m³ (in addition to the already presented 21 million m³“woody biomass from outside forests” and “used logging residues”). It can be assumed that these volumes most likely derive from unrecorded removals from forests and outside forests.

2 Future supply and demand

2.1 The Wood Resource Balance and scenarios

The forecast of future wood supply and demand in a new European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS II) requires the combination of different ap-proaches and methodologies for different sectors. Data qualities and availabil-ities as well as natural differences between sectors have a strong impact on modelling possibilities. Figure 2-1 visualizes how the results of the different wood resource (EFISCEN) and consumption models (EFSOS market projec-tions, EFI GTM, renewable energy sources (RES) targets calculations) feed into future wood resource balances within the EUwood project which are simul-taneously done for the EFSOS II wood energy scenarios for both reference futures (A1 and B2). The employment of the wood resource balance for all


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other EFSOS II scenarios as described in background paper 1 has yet to be described and refined.

Figure 2-1: Framework of projections

European Forest Information Scenario Model (EFISCEN):

This model for forest growth and constraints will be used to project the maxi-mum sustainable wood supply that could be made available from forests under the predefined assumptions of the IPCC scenarios. The results of the EFIS-CEN model provide the maximum sustainable supply classified by age classes and qualities, considering the specific framework “policies influencing wood availability” which are defined for the two wood energy scenarios (A1 and B2) under the EUwood project. For more information on EFISCEN, please see the separate background paper.


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Econometric projections/Market models:

The actualized GDP based, econometric calculations for the European Forest Sector Outlook Study of the FAO/UNECE will be used to forecast the produc-tion of the traditional wood industry sectors. The wood consumption by these sectors will be derived based on national conversion factors for each single processing type (e.g. wood consumption for unbleached chemical pulp produc-tion) For more information on the market projections and the conversion fac-tors, please see the separate background papers.

Other woody biomass:

Because of poor data availability and large differences in their driving factors, the segment of this part (e.g. post consumer recovered wood, agricultural plantations) will be projected sector by sector. Sectors with a strong linkage to industrial production (saw mill by-products) can be calculated by conversion factors, whereas other sectors like e.g. post consumer recovered wood relies more on socio-economic indicators from the Wood Resource Balances 2005/2007 (e.g. unrecorded removals / rural inhabitant).

Energy use of wood:

The basis for the projections of the wood energy sector for the wood energy scenario are the EU policy targets for renewable energy by 2020 as well as any other quantifiable source on RES targets in any country outside EU/EFTA. The detailed National Renewable Energy Action Plans will not be available before July 2010 - the end of the EUwood project. It will hence use the country specific policy targets in combination with the current role of wood energy to project the future wood demand by the energy sector as well as the assumed planned gains in energy efficiency (+20 %).

For the other EFSOS II scenarios, a specific share of wood energy will need to be defined, which will be lower than that in the wood energy scenario, assum-ing other policy priorities, as per the scenario description. It has been sug-gested that for the two baseline scenarios, this share be derived from the overall share of RES inherent in the reference future description, i.e. 11% for A1 and 13% for B2 and take account of the current share of wood energy in the total renewables mix.

The Joint Wood Energy Enquiry of the UNECE/FAO Timber Section provides the base data available with detailed information on different sources and user of wood for energy generation. However, not all member states of the UNECE member states participated in the enquiry. The results of the second JWEE referring to data for 2007 indicate that the wood energy sub-sectors show a strong variation regarding their growth dynamics. Traditional wood fuel showed a slight increase, and its growth is highly spontaneous and relating to the ac-tual peaks in price of light heating oil. The sectors with the fastest growth are


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by far the “main activity producer” – long term investments for heat and power generation from (woody) biomass. Wood use for energy production grew an-nually by over 18%.

The future wood resource balance will consider this different dynamics in the sector. It will hence assume that wood energy production in heat and power stations as well as energy generation from wood pellets will show the fastest growth and contribute the highest share to achieving the 2020 targets. Wood energy generation by the forest based industries will be coupled to the sectoral developments and econometric market projections (e.g. black liquor in the chemical pulp producing industries).

The Wood Resource Balances 2015 / 2030

The Wood Resource Balances 2015 / 2030 to be constructed for the EUwood project and EFSOS II will use the results of the sectoral demand and supply for each of the two IPCC reference futures, taking into account the results of the other woody biomass, market and energy use of wood projections. The comparison of the supply (market) and demand (wood resource balance) situation with fresh woody biomass will be made separately for each of the two IPCC reference futures, outside the models and calculations. In this last step, the comparison of supply and demand under the assumed details of the sce-narios will outline either reserves or gaps for future wood supply situation.

The results of these projections will attempt to show the size of a possible aris-ing supply gap. The conclusions will suggest policy measures how these sup-ply deficits could eventually be closed.


17

3 References

Alakangas, E., Heikkinen, A. Lensu, T., Vesterinen P. (2007) Biomass fuel trade in Europe - Summary report. VTT_R_03508-07, EUBIONET II-project, Jyväskyä. Online: [http://www.eubionet.net/ACFiles/Download.asp? re-cID=4705]

European Commission (1997) Energy for the Future: Renewable Sources of Energy. White Paper for a Community Strategy and Action Plan. COM(97)599 final, 26 Nov 1997. Brussels, Belgium.

European Commission (2005 a): Biomass action plan. COM(2005) 628 final. 7 December 2005. Brussels, Belgium.

European Commission (2005 b): Green paper on energy efficiency: Doing more with less. COM(2005) 265 final. 22 June 2005. Brussels, Belgium.

EurObserv'ER (2006): State of renewable energies in Europe. 6th

report. Paris, France. Online: [http://www.energies-renouvelables.org]

IEA (2005): World Energy Outlook (2006). Paris, France.

Mantau, U. (2004): Holzrohstoffbilanz Deutschland. Bestandsaufnahme 2002. Abschließender Forschungsbericht, Hamburg 2004.

Mantau, U. (2005) Development of methods to generate market information and linkages between biomass supply and demand. INFRO - Information Systems for Resources. Hamburg, Germany. Online: [http://webapp.rrz.uni-hamburg.de/~holz/files/161_Methods% 2006.pdf]

Mantau, U., u.M.v. Soergel, C. (2006): Holzrohstoffbilanz Deutschland. Be-standsaufnahme 2004. Methodikbericht. Hamburg 2006.

MCPFE/UNECE/FAO (2007MCPFE) enquiry on quantitative indicators of sustainable forest management

Schulmeyer, F. (2005) European Forest Sector Outlook Study: Trends 2000-2005 compared to the EFSOS Scenarios. Geneva Timber and Forest Discus-sion Paper 47. ECE/TIM/DP/47. Geneva, Switzerland.

Steierer F, Fischer-Ankern A, Francoeur M, Wall J, Prins K. (2007): Wood en-ergy in Europe and North America: A new estimate of volumes and flows. Joint Wood Energy Enquiry, UNECE/FAO, Geneva, Switzerland.

Thivolle-Cazat, A (2008) Conversion factors – A necessity for an accurate esti-mation of wood consumption by industries. Paper for the workshop on National Wood resource Balances. 31 March – 1 April 2008. Geneva, Switzerland.

UNECE (2005) European Forest Sector Outlook Study. Main Report. Geneva Timber and Forest Study Paper 20. ECE/TIM/SP/20. Geneva, Switzerland.

UNECE (2007) Timber Committee Price Database. Online: [http://www.unece.org/trade/timber/mis/fp-stats.htm]


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4 Annex:

Data sources overview

ITEM


19

2007

Industrial

RoundwoodFuelwood

JFSQ JFSQ

(P+I-X) (P+I-X) (P+I-X) (P) (P) (P+I-X) (P+I-X) (P) (P) (P+I-X)

Austria 24 367 5 012 588 … 5 729 7 471 C 2 307 O 1 118 4 551 827 51 970

Belgium 6 707 707 148 … … 700 C 0 X 2 360 881 1 460 12 962

Bulgaria 2 501 2 432 99 … … 382 C 0 O 435 337 1 6 186

Cyprus 12 8 0 … … 5 C 1 O 89 0 … 116

Czech Republic 14 809 1 663 329 1 365 2 833 2 976 C 41 O 768 1 821 5 26 611

Denmark 1 663 1 374 61 … … 363 C 0 X 1 134 0 1 986 6 582

Estonia 4 571 1 220 116 … … 1 315 O 902 O 573 148 24 8 868

Finland 63 958 5 353 1 386 … … 11 681 O 6 492 O 1 650 19 410 281 110 212

France 28 615 32 974 1 232 … … 5 767 O 7 476 O 6 731 3 947 373 87 115

Germany 65 327 9 108 1 489 6 300 4 400 13 046 C 154 O 10 285 4 232 2 000 116 339

Greece 1 529 1 110 53 … … 491 C 11 I 770 0 3 3 966

Hungary 2 006 2 856 97 … … 192 C 936 C 561 0 0 6 649

Ireland 2 634 40 53 … … 685 O 147 X 619 0 76 4 254

Italy 7 272 5 799 261 … … 2 553 C 2 046 C 6 524 110 1 260 25 826

Latvia 9 143 588 195 … … 775 O 801 O 265 0 12 11 779

Lithuania 3 182 1 349 91 65 … 1 061 O 1 074 O 338 0 7 7 166

Luxembourg 398 5 8 … … 159 C 1 223 O 61 0 … 1 854

Malta 0 0 0 … … 0 C 12 O 19 0 … 31

Netherlands 511 248 15 … … 407 C 668 O 1 679 16 1 344 4 889

Norway 9 856 2 415 245 … … 2 529 O 1 045 O 703 2 147 64 19 003

Poland 34 213 3 426 753 … … 2 028 C 5 061 O 4 114 2 074 36 51 706

Portugal 9 425 592 200 … … 718 O 897 O 684 5 151 0 17 667

Romania 11 817 3 756 311 … … 2 322 C 1 173 O 1 903 290 11 21 584

Slovakia 7 403 353 155 10 30 1 630 C 1 091 O 255 1 454 64 12 444

Slovenia 1 783 649 49 159 276 246 C 381 C 185 164 142 4 033

Spain 16 106 1 848 359 … … 3 754 O 1 424 I 4 122 4 969 7 32 590

Sweden 74 856 5 927 1 616 … … 14 018 O 2 272 O 970 23 126 3 365 126 150

Switzerland 2 608 1 314 78 500 240 1 401 C 322 O 1 007 627 164 8 261

United Kingdom 8 253 306 171 … … 1 763 O 1 251 C 5 419 0 758 17 921

EU 27 403 062 88 702 9 835 Shoul be included in JWEE additional fuelwoodShoul be included in JWEE additional fuelwood76 510 37 842 53 632 72 680 14 041 777 471

EU 27 / EFTA 415 525 92 430 10 159 Shoul be included in JWEE additional fuelwoodShoul be included in JWEE additional fuelwood80 439 39 209 55 342 75 454 14 269 804 736

Bark

∑ SUPPLY

TOTAL

Processed

wood based

fuel

1000 m³

(Roundwood equivalent)

Used

logging

residues

Pulp pro-

duction co-

products

Woody

biomass

outside the

forest

Chips, particles

Post-

consumer

recovered

wood Total

Wood residues

excluding wood

pellets

20

(C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C)

52 193 18 052 C 3 958 1 014 0 609 9 474 1 234 17 853 Austria

11 139 2 480 C 2 242 413 413 126 2 044 80 3 342 Belgium

6 681 1 094 C 743 48 303 155 662 26 3 650 Bulgaria

78 14 C 0 0 0 6 0 0 59 Cyprus

25 355 8 732 C 1 439 147 743 413 3 760 92 10 031 Czech Republic

8 592 478 C 373 0 0 0 0 319 7 421 Denmark

8 803 3 456 O 330 0 0 200 579 474 3 764 Estonia

108 379 21 856 O 467 0 0 3 262 48 803 653 33 338 Finland

80 577 16 239 O 4 878 1 841 660 991 9 151 360 46 457 France

126 958 40 304 C 11 011 6 833 1 833 1 062 11 547 2 568 51 800 Germany

6 449 170 C 899 0 0 46 0 158 5 175 Greece

7 125 367 C 662 0 0 172 0 22 5 902 Hungary

3 995 1 530 O 443 618 512 0 0 20 872 Ireland

22 508 2 675 C 3 883 1 802 0 3 168 1 362 827 8 791 Italy

15 108 6 192 O 224 0 0 568 0 237 7 887 Latvia

6 587 2 180 O 441 0 0 67 0 130 3 769 Lithuania

1 214 213 C 202 390 330 0 0 0 80 Luxembourg

0 … C 0 0 0 0 0 0 … Malta

4 242 429 C 0 0 0 11 279 300 3 224 Netherlands

17 614 4 008 O 415 0 0 162 7 556 90 5 382 Norway

45 463 5 271 C 5 958 2 693 990 1 693 4 705 719 23 433 Poland

27 684 1 732 O 856 515 0 169 9 952 0 14 460 Portugal

26 141 6 517 C 781 529 0 385 699 216 17 016 Romania

11 451 4 402 C 780 0 91 160 3 064 88 2 866 Slovakia

5 316 998 C 231 300 0 442 427 100 2 819 Slovenia

46 060 6 432 O 4 771 1 810 0 1 460 9 759 167 21 661 Spain

128 025 31 700 O 748 133 789 421 54 125 2 800 37 310 Sweden

9 049 2 468 C 544 521 0 177 1 394 230 3 715 Switzerland

14 607 5 094 O 2 704 1 349 495 0 626 300 4 039 United Kingdom

800 729 188 607 49 024 20 433 7 157 15 583 171 017 11 890 337 018 EU 27

827 392 195 083 49 983 20 955 7 157 15 923 179 967 12 209 346 115 EU 27 / EFTA

Energy use

Other panels

(veneet sheets

insulating board,

hardboard,

plywood)

Pulp

industry

Processed wood

fuel industry

(pellet, briquett &

charcoal)

Sawmill industry Particle board

industryMDF industry

∑ USE

TOTAL

OSB

industry

21

Table 0-1 Energy generating sector share in total domestic con-sumption:

Maximum Minimum

Denmark 86% Sweden 29%

Hungary 83% United Kingdom 28%

Greece 80% Slovakia 25%

Netherlands 76% Ireland 22%

Cyprus 75% Luxembourg 7%

Table 0-2 Sawmill sectors share in total domestic consumption:

Maximum Minimum

Latvia 41% Greece 3%

Estonia 39% Hungary 5%

Slovakia 38% Denmark 6%

Ireland 38% Portugal 6%

United King-dom

35% Netherlands 10%

Table 0-3 Pulp industries share in total domestic consumption:

Maximum Minimum

Finland 45% … …

Norway 43% … …

Sweden 42% … …

Portugal 36% … …

Slovakia 27% … …

Table 0-4 Wood panel industries’ share in total domestic consump-tion:

Maximum Minimum

Ireland 40% Sweden 2%

Italy 40% Norway 3%

United King-dom

31% Finland 3%

Belgium 29% Denmark 4%

Poland 25% Latvia 5%


22

Table 0-5 Wood fuel industries’ share in total domestic consumption:

Maximum Minimum

Netherlands 7% … …

Estonia 5% … …

Denmark 4% … …

Italy 4% … …

Greece 3% … …


23

Abbreviations

CAP Common Agriculture Policy

CEI-BOIS Confederation of the European wood working industries

CN Combined Nomenclature

DME Dimethylester

EFISCEN European Forest SCENario model

ETS Emission Trading System

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FBI Forest Based Industries

F-T Fischer-Tropsch Process (2nd generation liquid biofuel production)

FTP Forest Technology Platform

G Giga (109)

GAK Gemeinschaftsaufgabe Agrarstruktur und Küstenschutz (Multi-stakeholder Task Group for improved competitiveness of the agriculture and costal protection)

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GIS Geographic information systems

HS Harmonized System

HWP Harvested Wood Products

IEA International Energy Agency

ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification

ITTO International Tropical Timber Organization

IEE Intelligent Energy Europe

JFSQ Joint Forest Sector Questionnaire

JWEE Joint Wood Energy Enquiry

K Kilo (10³)

LCM Landscape care material

LCW Landscape care wood

M Mega (106)

MCPFE Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe

Mtoe Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent

NACE Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community

NAI Net Annual Increment

NFI National Forest Inventory

NFP National Forest Programme

NPP Net Primary Production

24

Odt. oven dry metric tonnes

P Peta (1015

)

R&D Research and Development

RES Renewable Energy Sources

SITC Standard International Trade Classification

T Terra (1012

)

Tg Terra gram (=1 million metric tonnes)

UNECE Unites Nations Economic Commission for Europe

VAT Value Added Tax

methodology, first results and data for review and comments

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