Methane Emissions from Shale Gas Aggravate Global Warming

Robert HowarthThe David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology

Cornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853 USA

International Anti-Fracking SummitCOP21 - Paris

10 December 2015

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

http://news.discovery.com/earth/alas

kas-arctic-tundra-feeling-the-

heat.html

1.5 oC threshold

2.0 oC threshold

A COP21 target of 1.5 degrees (or even 2.0) cannot be accomplished with CO2 emissions.

Methane emissions are the only path to success

Shindell et al. 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Exaj

ou

les

Natural Gas Production in the United StatesEIA 2015 Outlook data and mean reference projections

conventional

shale

Howarth 2015 Energy Emissions & Control Technologies

(Hayhoe et al. 2002)

For just the release of carbon dioxide during combustion…..

Is natural gas a “bridge fuel?”

Natural gas 15

Diesel oil 20

Coal 25

g C of CO2 MJ-1 of energy

• Natural gas is mostly methane

• Small leaks and emissions matter

• Shale gas emits more than conventional gas

One of our major conclusions in Howarth et al. (2011):

pertinent data for shale gas were extremely limited, and

poorly documented.

Great need for better data on shale gas, conducted by

researchers free of industry control and influence.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Schneising et al. (2014) –“Remote sensing of fugitive methane emissions from oil and gas production in North American tight geologic formations.” Earth’s Future 2: 548-558

globalUnited States

0 5 10 15 20

Pei

sch

l et

al. (

20

15

)

NE Marcellus

Fayetteville

Western Arkoma

Haynesville

Schneising et al. (2014)Bakken & Eagle Ford

Caulton et al. (2014)SW Marcellus

Petron et al. (2014)

Denver-Julesburg

Allen et al. (2013)US Average

Karion et al. (2013)Uinta

Petron et al. (2012)Denver-Julesburg

EPA (2013)

EPA (2011)

Howarth et al. (2011)

Methane emissions from unconventional gas operations (upstream only, % of production)

Upstream methane emissions unconventional gas

Red = methaneOrange = CO2

Howarth 2015 Energy Emissions & Control Technologies

Carbon dioxide only

Total emissions(with best accounting for

methane)

With very optimistic regulation of methane emissions from shale gas

Total emissions(with EPA accounting)

Howarth 2015 Energy Emissions & Control Technologies

Pam Pearson of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative. http://iccinet.org/thresholds .

http://news.discovery.com/earth/alas

kas-arctic-tundra-feeling-the-

heat.html

1.5 oC threshold

2.0 oC threshold

Dangerous tipping points become increasingly likely at 1.5 deg, 12 to 15 years into the future at current rates.

Controlling methane is Essential to the solution!

Shindell et al. 2012

Renewable energy is the future, is cost effective and reliable today, and will only

become more so

Jacobson & Delucchi (2009), Scientific American; and Jacobson et al. (2013, 2014), Energy Policy

Our Energy Plan for New York State

Howarth-Marino home (1890’s farm house) is 100% carbon neutral, with geothermal heating and renewable electricity.

Half of our driving is by electric car.

Funding:

Cornell University

Park Foundation

Shale gas…. A bridge to nowhere

For more information:

howarthlab.org