methamphetamine expansion into nw pennsylvania

8/3/2019 Methamphetamine Expansion Into NW Pennsylvania

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Methamphetamine

Expansion into Northwestern Pennsylvania

Michelle Clemens17 May 2011


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Table of Contents

I. Key Findings ................................................................................................................ 1

II. Scanning Product ........................................................................................................ 2

III. SWOT Analysis .......................................................................................................... 5

IV. Indicator Analysis ....................................................................................................... 8

V. Geospatial Analysis .................................................................................................. 12

VI. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses ......................................................................... 15

VII. Response ................................................................................................................ 18

VIII. Evaluation .............................................................................................................. 20

IX. Contact Information .................................................................................................. 21


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I. Key Findings

Requirement:

Descriptive: What is the nature of methamphetamine problems that currently exist inNorthwestern Pennsylvania?

o What circumstances make methamphetamine production more prevalent in somecounties/towns over other areas?

o How have law enforcement techniques to prevent and combat methamphetamineproblems evolved and have they been successful?

Estimative: What will likely happen with the methamphetamine problems inNorthwestern Pennsylvania over the next 24 months?

o Will methamphetamine production decrease due to regulations on Sudafed(pseudoephedrine)?

Findings:

Methamphetamine problems are unlikely to increase in Northwestern Pennsylvania in thenext 24 months. Law enforcement has increased its pressure through creating a MethTask Force and targeting pill shoppers. Even with the decrease in local production,methamphetamine remains a problem because of trafficking into the area from Ohio andMexico.

o It is likely that the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force will continue toshut down clandestine meth laboratories. Strengths and opportunities exist withthe regulation of precursor chemicals and a program to track its sales. Weaknessesand threats occur with the nature of meth labs and their movement into otherjurisdictions.

o It is likely that precursor chemical regulations have caused changes in themanufacturing of methamphetamine. Indicator analysis suggests that changeshave occurred in the means of which producers acquire pseudoephedrine. Whilethe characteristics of clandestine meth labs remain the same, the location hasmoved from urban to rural areas, and some production has even shifted to rollingmeth labs. The production difficulties resulting from these regulations have alsoaffected the price and purity of methamphetamine.

o It is highly likely that Erie County will remain a hot spot for methamphetaminemanufacturing and trafficking in Northwestern Pennsylvania. The hot point inAlbion, as well as increase in manufacturing methods with the rolling lab in theCity of Erie, suggests that methamphetamine activities are on the rise in ErieCounty. The number of seized labs between 2001 and 2006 increased in ErieCounty, despite the decline in all other Northwestern Pennsylvania counties.


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Meth Task Force members inspect the

area of an underground meth lab build in

a man-made cave.

http://tinyurl.com/3bsasms

II. Scanning Product

Methamphetamine Problems in NW PA Remain Consistent

Executive Summary:

Northwestern Pennsylvania continues to suffer from methamphetamine problems despite

indications of the drugs retreat. Local drug manufacturers and outlaw motorcycle gangs are

responsible for the majority of methamphetamine production within the area, as well as acting as

the primary transporters for methamphetamine from other sources, such as Mexico. The location

of methamphetamine labs varies from private residences to motel rooms, and they create extreme

safety risks due to their explosive and flammable nature. Law enforcement has increased their

efforts to combat the methamphetamine problems by establishing the Northwestern Pennsylvania

Meth Task Force.

Discussion:

Methamphetamine remains a problem for Northwestern Pennsylvania despite signs of the drug

being in retreat. Domestic methamphetamine production has decreased significantly due to

increased law enforcement pressures, public awareness

and federal regulations on precursor chemicals. On the

contrary, methamphetamine production in Mexico has

increased to levels sufficient to offset domestic

production decreases, maintain distribution in already

established markets and facilitate further expansion of

the drug.1

Besides the methamphetamine that originates from

Mexico, local traffickers manufacture and produce

much of the methamphetamine in Northwestern

Pennsylvania. Rural areas are the most popular sites for

small laboratories due to reduced risk of detection.2

The location of methamphetamine laboratories in

Northwestern Pennsylvania vary from private

residences to hunting cabins and motel rooms; in one

instance in Venango and Mercer counties, authoritieslocated an underground lab in a man-made cave,

hidden in a hillside near the perpetrators residence.3
http://tinyurl.com/3bsasmshttp://tinyurl.com/3bsasmshttp://tinyurl.com/3bsasms


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The ingredients to produce methamphetamine

include simply household items.

http://tinyurl.com/4533s9e

Local independent dealers and outlaw

motorcycle gangs, such as Breed, Hells

Angels, Pagans and Warlocks, are

responsible for most of the production of

methamphetamine in Northwestern

Pennsylvania.4 These groups use multipleproduction methods including iodine/red

phosphorus, Birch reduction, and phenyl-2-

propanone methods. These groups are the

principal wholesale level and retail-level

distributors of methamphetamine. At the

retail level, producers package the

methamphetamine in folded pages of

pornographic magazines, small plastic bags,

or the cellophane from cigarette packs.5

Distribution of the drug occurs at privateresidences, hotel rooms, bars, and

occasionally at public parking areas of

shopping centers and malls. Even with these

wholesale level and retail-level distributors,

most of the methamphetamine distribution

involves gram and ounce quantities.6

Local independent dealers and outlaw

motorcycle gangs not only produce methamphetamine, but also act as the primary transporters

for methamphetamine coming from other sources such as Mexico, California and Florida.7

These groups transport the drug on major highways in private vehicles, rented vehicles,

commercial bus luggage, or they ship the methamphetamine into Pennsylvania via express

mail and parcel services.8

The production of methamphetamine causes multiple safety concerns, creating toxic waste that

is a threat to law enforcement personnel, emergency response teams, and the environment. On

average, methamphetamine laboratories produce five to six pounds of waste for every pound

of methamphetamine.9 Manufacturers typically dump the waste in the local area, which in

return contaminates the group water and kills vegetation. Cleanup of methamphetamine

laboratories, which federal law mandates, can cost between $5,000 to $6,000 USD for a single

site.10

Besides creating a toxic byproduct, the production of methamphetamine contaminates carpet,

appliances, furniture, clothing, drywall, insulation, and the building in which the production is

taking place.11 Methamphetamine labs are highly explosive and flammable; therefore, they

pose a threat to any nearby properties and law enforcement officers. If the methamphetamine

lab is located in a residence, children often suffer burns, respiratory problems, toxic blood

levels, neglect and abuse.12
http://tinyurl.com/4533s9ehttp://tinyurl.com/4533s9ehttp://tinyurl.com/4533s9e


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The graph depicts the number of methamphetamine

labs that have exploded during the various years in

Pennsylvania.

http://tinyurl.com/3p35c5d

Law enforcement has increased their efforts

to combat the growing methamphetamine

problem in Northwestern Pennsylvania. At a

summit in 2005, local law enforcement

personnel and prosecutors identified the

local methamphetamine problems anddevised a plan to combat such problems,

resulting in the creation of the Pennsylvania

Attorney Generals Meth Task Force. This

task force includes permanently assigned

narcotics agents from the Attorney General's

Office, Pennsylvania State Police troopers,

and a Drug Enforcement Administration

(DEA) special agent that acts as a liaison to

assist in investigations. Within its first year of operations, the Meth Task Force raided 28

methamphetamine labs in Northwestern Pennsylvania.13

1http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htm2http://www.nationalmethcenter.org/STATES-PA.html3http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=39034http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htm5http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htm6http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htm7http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm8http://www.methresources.gov/pa.html9http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm10http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm11

http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.html12http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.html13http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259
http://tinyurl.com/3p35c5dhttp://tinyurl.com/3p35c5dhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htmhttp://www.nationalmethcenter.org/STATES-PA.htmlhttp://www.nationalmethcenter.org/STATES-PA.htmlhttp://www.nationalmethcenter.org/STATES-PA.htmlhttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.methresources.gov/pa.htmlhttp://www.methresources.gov/pa.htmlhttp://www.methresources.gov/pa.htmlhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.methresources.gov/pa.htmlhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htmhttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903http://www.nationalmethcenter.org/STATES-PA.htmlhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htmhttp://tinyurl.com/3p35c5d


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III. SWOT Analysis

Meth Task Force Likely To Successfully Combat ClandestineLaboratories

Executive Summary:

It is likely that the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force will continue to shut down

clandestine meth laboratories over the next 24 months. Strengths and opportunities exist with the

regulation of precursor chemicals and a program to track its sales. Weaknesses and threats occur

with the nature of meth labs and their movement into other jurisdictions.

Discussion:

SWOT analysis indicated that the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force has strengths

in its training programs provided to local police agencies. The task force offers training in

chemical field-testing that includes the use of drug field testing kits, allowing law enforcementofficers to quickly and easily identify suspected methamphetamine encountered in the field.

Clandestine laboratory site training, offered by the task force, teaches local police how to

recognize the signs of a possible meth lab while on patrol.1 These training programs offer a

means of combating the threat of meth labs caused by their explosive nature.2

Another strength of the task force is its increased information sharing via electronic bulletins.

The Attorney General's Office publishes these Northwestern Pennsylvania Methamphetamine

Initiative Bulletins regarding meth activity, with the purpose of the bulletin to provide

information about recent seizures and arrests and upcoming training. All local, state and

federal law enforcement officers and prosecutors in Northwestern Pennsylvania receive thebulletin, ensuring that all parties are up to date on the most recent meth activity.3

The task force improved its own tactics to combat meth labs through aiding in the creation of

the Meth Hunter software. The program analyzes purchase logs from pharmacies and

identifies patterns in order to pinpoint pill shoppers.4 The combination of this program, along

with the opportunity produced via the pseudoephedrine regulation from the Combat

Methamphetamine Epidemic Act (CMEA), allows the task force to target a new member in

the methamphetamine organization: the pill shopper.5 Pill shoppers pose a threat as they not

only purchase excessive amounts of pseudoephedrine, but also commit crimes, such as thefts

of both drugs and identities.6

An opportunity is present through the regulation of pseudoephedrine sales via the CMEA. This

ingredient, commonly found in cold medications such as Sudafed, is a precursor chemical for

methamphetamine production: the CMEA mandates the collection of information on every

sale of this chemical as well as the purchasers information, allowing for the tracking of this

methamphetamine ingredient. Independent meth dealers commonly use methods that utilize


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pseudoephedrine, but outlaw motorcycle gangs prefer a production method that involves

phenyl-2-propanone (P2P) as the main ingredient.7 P2P is a highly regulated chemical,

providing an opportunity for tracking the sales of the precursor just as the CMEA tracks

pseudoephedrine.8

The community and its members have provided opportunities for the task force in variousforms. A local company, DAGIR Co., developed the Meth Hunter program now utilized by

the task force.9 Mercyhurst College has been the site for multiple forums, including the forum

that created the task force.10 Mercyhurst also offers student interns to the task force to help

with data input and link analysis that would otherwise require an additional paid staff

member.11

Other threats have arisen from the efficiency of the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task

Force. Clandestine labs have moved over the state border into Ohio in order to avoid the

increased pressure of the task force. This moves the labs out of the task forces jurisdiction,

making it difficult to combat the meth organization in its early stages of production. Massivelaw enforcement layoffs in Ohio have increased this threat, as there is a limited effort to

combat these meth labs.12 Information sharing with police agencies in Ohio may alleviate the

initial workload that the police agencies may not originally have the manpower to conduct.

Due to the manufacturing of the drug out of state, the meth is trafficked into Pennsylvania.

This poses as a weakness for the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force focuses the

majority of their tactics and strategies on combating methamphetamine organization via the

production stage.13 Combating methamphetamine at all stages of the process, such as transport

and distribution, may help mitigate this issue.

The Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force is experiencing more activity with the

increased movement and production of methamphetamine in the area. Because of this

increased activity, the task force has exhausted its funding midyear in the past, ceasing any

crime busting for that year.14 Another weakness to the task force is the expense endured from

shutting down a meth lab; because of the toxic waste created by methamphetamine production,

federal mandates the clean-up of meth lab sites, which can cost anywhere from $5,000 to

$60,000 USD for a single site.15

Analytic Confidence:

Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. The analyst used one structured method,SWOT Analysis. Source reliability is medium and source corroboration exists. The analysts

expertise is low and the analyst worked alone. Subject complexity is medium and the time

available for the task was adequate.


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Annex 1: SWOT Analysis

1http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=12592http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.html3http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=12594http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=News5http://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-money6http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=113987http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm8http://www.nevadaobserver.com/Reading%20Room%20Documents/Organized%20Crime%20in%20Pennsylvania

%20(1988).htm9http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=News10http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=125911http://intel.mercyhurst.edu/content/david_grabelski12http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=1139813http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=News14http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_448347.html15http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm

Strengths

1. Chemical field-testing

2. Clandestine laboratory sitetraining

3. Increased information sharingthrough electronic bulletins

4. Meth Hunter Program

Weaknesses

1. Lack of funding for task force

2. High cost of meth lab cleanup3. Limited resources to limit meth

trafficked into PA

Opportunities

1. Pseudoephedrine regulationsvia CMEA 2005

2. Main ingredients such as P2P(Phenyl-2-Propanone) are highly

regulated

3. Added efforts from communitymembers (Mercyhurst College

and local company DAGIR Co.)

Threats

1. Explosive nature of clandestinemeth labs

2. Production moved over thestate border into Ohio

3. Massive law enforcementlayoffs in Ohio

4. Pill shoppers committing thefts(drugs and IDs)
http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-moneyhttp://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-moneyhttp://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-moneyhttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.nevadaobserver.com/Reading%20Room%20Documents/Organized%20Crime%20in%20Pennsylvania%20%20%20(1988).htmhttp://www.nevadaobserver.com/Reading%20Room%20Documents/Organized%20Crime%20in%20Pennsylvania%20%20%20(1988).htmhttp://www.nevadaobserver.com/Reading%20Room%20Documents/Organized%20Crime%20in%20Pennsylvania%20%20%20(1988).htmhttp://www.nevadaobserver.com/Reading%20Room%20Documents/Organized%20Crime%20in%20Pennsylvania%20%20%20(1988).htmhttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://intel.mercyhurst.edu/content/david_grabelskihttp://intel.mercyhurst.edu/content/david_grabelskihttp://intel.mercyhurst.edu/content/david_grabelskihttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_448347.htmlhttp://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_448347.htmlhttp://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_448347.htmlhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_448347.htmlhttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://intel.mercyhurst.edu/content/david_grabelskihttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.nevadaobserver.com/Reading%20Room%20Documents/Organized%20Crime%20in%20Pennsylvania%20%20%20(1988).htmhttp://www.nevadaobserver.com/Reading%20Room%20Documents/Organized%20Crime%20in%20Pennsylvania%20%20%20(1988).htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htmhttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-moneyhttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=Newshttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.htmlhttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259


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IV. Indicator Analysis

Precursor Chemical Regulations Likely Cause Changes in

Methamphetamine Manufacturing

Executive Summary:

It is likely that precursor chemical regulations have caused changes in the manufacturing of

methamphetamine. Indicator analysis suggests that changes have occurred in the means of which

producers acquire pseudoephedrine. While the characteristics of clandestine meth labs remain the

same, the location has moved from urban to rural areas, and some production has even shifted to

rolling meth labs. The production difficulties resulting from these regulations have also affected

the price and purity of methamphetamine.

Discussion:Indicator analysis suggests that the manufacturing of methamphetamine has altered since the

implementation of the Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act in September 2006.1 Before

the government enacted the CMEA, an individual purchasing mass amount of

pseudoephedrine at a single pharmacy was an indicator of methamphetamine manufacturing.2

The act has altered this indicator to now being multiple individuals who purchase the allotted

amount of pseudoephedrine at multiple pharmacies in the area.3

Another indicator that has evolved from the enactment of the CMEA is an increase in the theft

of pseudoephedrine. Due to the inconvenience of needing multiple purchasers, some

methamphetamine producers have resorted to stealing pseudoephedrine.

4

The theft of IDcards, such as licenses and passports, has also increased as individuals can purchase

pseudoephedrine under these false identities.5

Although the CMEA has not changed the indicators of a clandestine meth lab, the geographic

location of these labs has changed over the year. Urban areas were the common location for

meth labs, as it allowed easy access to customers.6 Rural or secluded areas are now the most

likely location for these clandestine labs as it allows producers to have a decreased risk of

detection caused by the laboratorys pungent odors and a decreased law enforcement

presence.7

Because of the odors and obvious indicators that correspond with meth labs, more producers

have chosen to use a rolling meth lab, characterized by producing meth in the truck on a

vehicle.8 An indicator of this method of production is the presence of plastic bottles with

rubber tubing of the side of major roadways. These bottles contain the waste product of

producing methamphetamine.9


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Lastly, the CMEA has altered the methamphetamine drug itself. Because of the increased risk,

high demand, and low supply of precursor chemicals, the price of methamphetamine has

significantly increased. A quarter gram of methamphetamine (referred to as a hit) used to cost

$25 USD, but since the CMEA, the price is almost ten times the price of gold.10 The

restrictions on precursor chemicals have affected the purity of meth with a decline in drug

purity from 70% in March 2006 (before the CMEA) to 43% in June 2007.11


Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. The analyst used one structured method,

Indicator Analysis. Source reliability is medium and source corroboration exists. The analysts




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Annex 1: Indicator Analysis

Indicator Before 2006 After 2006Bottles with rubber tubing found alongcommon roadways

1 3

Large purchases of pseudoephedrine atone pharmacy

3 1

Multiple individuals purchasing smallamounts of pseudoephedrine at multiplepharmacies

1 3

Theft of pseudoephedrine 2 3Theft of ID cards (licenses, passports) 1 2Labs located in urban areas 3 150% purity or higher 3 1Steady price for meth ($25 for gram) 3 1*Purchases of large amounts of nailpolish remover and/or paint thinner

2 2

*Large purchases of coffee filters (but nocoffee)

2 2

*Strong smell of urine coming from astructure

3 3

*Residents never put or trash to becollected or may burn own trash

2 2

*Inhabitants smoking outside ofresidence

2 2

*Houses or buildings with widowsblacked out or curtains always drawn 2 2

*Open windows vented with fans, evenduring the winter

2 2

*Extensive security measures 2 2*Propane tanks with bright blue valves 2 2*Bottles, jugs or glass containers full ofunknown, layered liquids

3 3

*Peeled casings from lithium batteries 3 3*Maroon residue on aluminum materials 2 2*Unusual traffic levels 2 2*Lights continuously on in building 2 2*Access denied to landlords, neighborsor visitors

3 3

Comment: The indicators listed in the chart above are ranked on a scale from 1 to 3, with 1

being low and 3 being high.

* Denotes indicator of clandestine methamphetamine laboratory


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1http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/publications/pdf/Pseudoephedrine.pdf2http://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/drugs-alcohol/meth4.htm3http://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-money4http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=113985http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=113986

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/doj/dea/product/meth/threat.htm#labs7http://methlabhomes.com/2008/09/meth-lab-statistics-pennsylvania/8http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=60489http://www.portlandonline.com/police/index.cfm?c=3859410http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meth/faqs/11http://www.justice.gov/dea/concern/meth_prices_purity.html
http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/publications/pdf/Pseudoephedrine.pdfhttp://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/publications/pdf/Pseudoephedrine.pdfhttp://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/publications/pdf/Pseudoephedrine.pdfhttp://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/drugs-alcohol/meth4.htmhttp://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/drugs-alcohol/meth4.htmhttp://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/drugs-alcohol/meth4.htmhttp://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-moneyhttp://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-moneyhttp://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-moneyhttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/doj/dea/product/meth/threat.htm#labshttp://www.fas.org/irp/agency/doj/dea/product/meth/threat.htm#labshttp://www.fas.org/irp/agency/doj/dea/product/meth/threat.htm#labshttp://methlabhomes.com/2008/09/meth-lab-statistics-pennsylvania/http://methlabhomes.com/2008/09/meth-lab-statistics-pennsylvania/http://methlabhomes.com/2008/09/meth-lab-statistics-pennsylvania/http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048http://www.portlandonline.com/police/index.cfm?c=38594http://www.portlandonline.com/police/index.cfm?c=38594http://www.portlandonline.com/police/index.cfm?c=38594http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meth/faqs/http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meth/faqs/http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meth/faqs/http://www.justice.gov/dea/concern/meth_prices_purity.htmlhttp://www.justice.gov/dea/concern/meth_prices_purity.htmlhttp://www.justice.gov/dea/concern/meth_prices_purity.htmlhttp://www.justice.gov/dea/concern/meth_prices_purity.htmlhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meth/faqs/http://www.portlandonline.com/police/index.cfm?c=38594http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048http://methlabhomes.com/2008/09/meth-lab-statistics-pennsylvania/http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/doj/dea/product/meth/threat.htm#labshttp://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398http://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-moneyhttp://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/drugs-alcohol/meth4.htmhttp://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/publications/pdf/Pseudoephedrine.pdf


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V. Geospatial Analysis

Erie County Highly Likely to Remain a Hot Spot for Methamphetamine

Executive Summary:

It is highly likely that Erie County will remain a hot spot for methamphetamine manufacturing

and trafficking in Northwestern Pennsylvania. The hot point in Albion, as well as increase in

manufacturing methods with the rolling lab in the City of Erie, suggests that methamphetamine

activities are on the rise in Erie County. The number of seized labs between 2001 and 2006

increased in Erie County, despite the decline in all other Northwestern Pennsylvania counties.

Discussion:

Geospatial analysis, specifically hotspot

analysis, suggests a hot point in thetown of Albion. In March 2008,

authorities dismantled the largest

methamphetamine organization in

Northwestern Pennsylvania in

Operation Family Cook-Out. James

and Ronald Frey headed this large-scale

organization out of their Albion

residences where they manufactured,

packaged and sold methamphetamine.1

Also, in April 2010, authorities arrestedan Albion couple constructing a

functional methamphetamine lab in their home.2

Besides the hot point in Albion, hotspot analysis indicates a hot spot in Erie County. In

February 2007, authorities arrested twelve suspected drug dealers accused of trafficking

methamphetamine into Erie County from California.3 The trend of manufacturing

methamphetamine within the county continues to evolve with new manufacturing methods. In

March of 2011, authorities discovered a rolling methamphetamine lab during a traffic stop

in the City of Erie. The three suspects had been driving back and forth between Ripley, New

York and Erie on Interstate 90, producing methamphetamine in the trunk of their vehicle and

disposing the waste product on the side of the road.4

Hotspot analysis shows a dispersion of methamphetamine labs in the remaining counties of

Northwestern Pennsylvania. In September 2008, authorities arrested twenty-three people in

connection to a methamphetamine lab located in a man-made cave in Stoneboro, Venango

County.5 The Meth Task Force arrested five people in May 2010 suspected of operating a

meth lab in an apartment complex in Titusville, Crawford County.6 During the same month,


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authorities arrested a Venango County man for manufacturing methamphetamine in his Oil

City home.7

Chart mapping also suggests an increase in the methamphetamine activity in Erie County. The

counties of Crawford and Venango peaked in 2004 with the most labs seized (fourteen and

eleven labs respectively), and then declined into 2006.8 Production in Warren and Forestcounties also declined in 2006, with their peaks at seven and five labs in 2005.9 Erie County

did not decline leading into the year 2006, but rather had an influx of labs from nine labs in

2005 to twenty-two labs in 2006.10



Geospatial Analysis. Source reliability is medium and source corroboration exists. The analysts



Annex 1: Hotspot Analysis

Comment: Red dots and/or paths indicate the location of a meth lab.


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Annex 2: Chart Mapping

Comment: The chart map shows the number of meth labs seized from 2001 to 2006.

Legend: Erie County = red

Crawford County = blue

Venango County = green

Warren County = purple

Forest County = orange

1http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=35142http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=52083http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=22484http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=60485http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=39036http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=53167http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=53108http://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htm9http://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htm10http://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htm
http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3514http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3514http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3514http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5208http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5208http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5208http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=2248http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=2248http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=2248http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5316http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5316http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5316http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5310http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5310http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5310http://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htmhttp://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5310http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5316http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=2248http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5208http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3514


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VI. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Meth Problems Unlikely to Increase in Next 24 Months

Executive Summary:

Methamphetamine problems are unlikely to increase in Northwestern Pennsylvania in the next

24 months. Law enforcement has increased its pressure through creating a Meth Task Force and

targeting pill shoppers. Even with the decrease in local production, methamphetamine remains a

problem because of trafficking into the area from Ohio and Mexico.

Discussion:

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) indicates that chances are better than even that

methamphetamine problems will not increase in the next 24 months. Overall, there has been a

decrease in domestic methamphetamine production due to increased law enforcement pressureand public awareness.1 The creation of the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force has

thus far been a success with the group seizing 28 labs within its first year of existence.2 The

Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act has contributed to the decrease in production; after

the implementation of this act that put regulations on pseudoephedrine, methamphetamine labs

in Northwestern Pennsylvania experienced a 19% decrease.3

Due to these regulations on precursor chemicals, the means of methamphetamine production

have altered with the introduction of individuals whose sole purpose is to purchase

pseudoephedrine. With this alteration also comes a change in law enforcement strategy that

now focuses on searching for pill shoppers.

4

The Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Forceutilizes a program called Meth Hunter that tracks all pseudoephedrine sales and purchasers,

and identifies any patterns or unusual activity that could indicate purchases for

methamphetamine production.5

Even with law enforcement efforts, methamphetamine continues to move eastward into the

state.6 The availability of methamphetamine is higher in northwestern parts than compared to

the rest of Pennsylvania. Specifically, there are increasing levels of methamphetamine

production in Crawford, Erie, and Venango counties.7

The Meth Task Force has continued to combat much of the local production, but that has not

eliminated the methamphetamine problem. Production and trafficking from Mexico has

increased, and at such levels that can offset the domestic production decrease to maintain a

steady supply of methamphetamine.8 Local production has moved across the state border into

Ohio where law enforcement pressure is low; this allows production to occur outside of the

Meth Task Forces jurisdiction.9


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Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). Source reliability is medium and source

corroboration exists. The analysts expertise is low and the analyst worked alone. Subject

complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.

Annex 1: ACH


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VII. Response

A Successful Strategy Highly Likely Involves Several Responses

Executive Summary:

It is highly likely that a successful strategy to combat methamphetamine involves several

different responses. Law enforcement should focus on the areas of intervention, prevention,

treatment, and community policing. Combining techniques involving the community and well as

understanding the nature of offenders allows law enforcement to tackle the issue of

methamphetamine from all angles.

Discussion:

In most cases, an effective strategy to combat methamphetamine involves implementing

several different responses.1

Not only are several responses necessary, but the nature of theresponses and what they contribute must differ as well. Four areas pertinent to combating

methamphetamine include intervention, prevention, treatment, and community policing.2

Intervention is important in order to identify the specifics of the methamphetamine problem in

a certain community. Since methamphetamine production occurs in clandestine labs, the drug

operates in a closed market. It is imperative that law enforcement understand this

characteristic of the methamphetamine business and approach accordingly. Most cases will

require long-term, undercover investigations.3

Prevention involves training those individuals and groups involved with methamphetaminedetection, even beyond law enforcement personnel. Hotel/motel staff should receive training

on the signs of methamphetamine labs as these individuals have frequent contact with the

offenders.4 Law enforcement should also provide educational materials to the public; Phoenix

implemented non-traditional methods such as placing anti-meth messages on grocery bags and

placing informational postcards in movie rentals.5

With treatment, law enforcement should build a partnership with drug courts.

Methamphetamine users are often multi-drug users and therefore require a more rigid structure

with little tolerance for infractions.6 Through the drug courts, methamphetamine offenders

gain access to treatment more quickly and receive stricter standards, such as regular

urinalysis.7

Community policing depends on cooperation from the community as well as other nearby law

enforcement agencies. Tennessee adapted community policing to combat its drug issues by

implementing a methamphetamine offender registry. Similar to a sex offender registry, the

database contains the names and birthdays of individuals arrested and convicted for the

manufacturing, sale, and/or delivery of methamphetamine.8


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1http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdf2http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdf3http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdf4http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdf5http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdf6

http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdf7http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdf8http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/getdoc/5a6bf09a-611b-4ee3-b1cd-f51bc3b99db7/Labelle,-randy-paper-pdf.aspx
http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/getdoc/5a6bf09a-611b-4ee3-b1cd-f51bc3b99db7/Labelle,-randy-paper-pdf.aspxhttp://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/getdoc/5a6bf09a-611b-4ee3-b1cd-f51bc3b99db7/Labelle,-randy-paper-pdf.aspxhttp://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/getdoc/5a6bf09a-611b-4ee3-b1cd-f51bc3b99db7/Labelle,-randy-paper-pdf.aspxhttp://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/getdoc/5a6bf09a-611b-4ee3-b1cd-f51bc3b99db7/Labelle,-randy-paper-pdf.aspxhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08032027.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/meth_initiative.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdf


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VIII. Evaluation

Accurate Evaluation Likely Requires Multiple Measurements

Executive Summary:

It is likely that multiple means of measurement are necessary to obtain an accurate evaluation of

law enforcement responses to the methamphetamine issues. Means of measurement should

include the areas of production, drug use, and characteristics of the drugs itself to acquire a well-

rounded evaluation. It is necessary that measurement techniques contain independent variables to

avoid skewed data from factors such as increased law enforcement practices and repeat

offenders.

Discussion:

Measuring the effectiveness of implemented responses provides feedback as to the degree ofsuccess obtained as well as offers insight as to what modifications might be necessary. To get

a full understanding how the responses are effecting the methamphetamine issue, law

enforcement should measure multiple aspects, including meth labs and dump sites, drug

treatment, and methamphetamine itself.1

Measuring the number of seized meth labs is a rather simple method of evaluation, but also

misleading. The number of seized labs may increase as law enforcement advances in its

training, therefore not offering insight into the drug issue. A reduced number of lab explosions

and toxic dumpsites indicates a decrease in clandestine meth lab activity and therefore

evaluates implemented responses against methamphetamine production.

2

In order to evaluate the effectiveness of responses toward meth use, law enforcement can

compare admissions numbers for drug treatment facilities. This offers insight as to whether or

not the actual number of drug use is in a decline, although repeat offenders may skew the data.

Law enforcement can also utilize data from hospital admissions that concern meth use.3

Evaluating characteristics of methamphetamine itself can offer insight into the effectiveness of

law enforcement responses. An increase in the price of methamphetamine indicates that

chemicals and ingredients are in demand and harder to acquire, signaling that precursor

chemical regulations are effective. A decrease in the purity of the drug also signifies that

ingredients are difficult to obtain.4

1http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdf2http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdf3http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htm4http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdf
http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htmhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htmhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdfhttp://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e07063402.pdf


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IX. Contact Information

Please contact the analyst with any questions or comments:

Name: Michelle Clemens

Email:[email protected]

Phone: (814) 824-3888
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]