Meteorology 415Meteorology 415Fall 2011Fall 2011

Review of Forecast 1Review of Forecast 1

Contest 2Contest 2

Allentown, PAAllentown, PA

Allentown, PAAllentown, PA

Allentown, PAAllentown, PA

FAA Identifier: ABELat/Long: 40-39-08.5056N / 075-26-25.4443W40-39.141760N / 075-26.424072W40.6523627 / -75.4404012(estimated)Elevation: 393 ft. / 119.8 m (surveyed)Variation: 12W (2005)From city: 3 miles NE of ALLENTOWN, PA

Observations from AllentownObservations from AllentownKABE 271751Z 13005KT 10SM SCT019 26/20 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T02560200 KABE 271751Z 13005KT 10SM SCT019 26/20 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T02560200

10256 20194 56012=10256 20194 56012=KABE 271759Z 15007KT 10SM BKN019 26/20 A2994 RMK AO2=KABE 271759Z 15007KT 10SM BKN019 26/20 A2994 RMK AO2=KABE 271851Z 14006KT 10SM FEW023 SCT085 27/21 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP131 KABE 271851Z 14006KT 10SM FEW023 SCT085 27/21 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP131

T02670206=T02670206=KABE 271859Z 12006KT 10SM BKN019 26/20 A2992 RMK AO2=KABE 271859Z 12006KT 10SM BKN019 26/20 A2992 RMK AO2=KABE 271951Z 15007KT 10SM SCT025 BKN030 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124 KABE 271951Z 15007KT 10SM SCT025 BKN030 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124

T02610206=T02610206=KABE 272020Z 12009G14KT 10SM SCT025 BKN032 26/21 A2990 RMK AO2=KABE 272020Z 12009G14KT 10SM SCT025 BKN032 26/21 A2990 RMK AO2=KABE 272051Z 11007KT 10SM SCT025 BKN033 BKN040 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 KABE 272051Z 11007KT 10SM SCT025 BKN033 BKN040 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2

SLP126 T02610206 55011=SLP126 T02610206 55011=KABE 272151Z 10009KT 10SM FEW024 SCT028 BKN038 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 KABE 272151Z 10009KT 10SM FEW024 SCT028 BKN038 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2

SLP125 T02560206=SLP125 T02560206=KABE 272251Z 11014G20KT 10SM FEW021 BKN030 OVC041 24/21 A2992 RMK AO2 KABE 272251Z 11014G20KT 10SM FEW021 BKN030 OVC041 24/21 A2992 RMK AO2

SLP128 T02440206=SLP128 T02440206=KABE 272305Z 13010G20KT 10SM FEW019 BKN026 OVC070 24/21 A2993 RMK AO2=KABE 272305Z 13010G20KT 10SM FEW019 BKN026 OVC070 24/21 A2993 RMK AO2=KABE 272326Z 13010G18KT 10SM SCT025 SCT039 BKN110 23/21 A2993 RMK AO2=KABE 272326Z 13010G18KT 10SM SCT025 SCT039 BKN110 23/21 A2993 RMK AO2=KABE 272351Z 12008KT 10SM SCT028 BKN035 23/21 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP133 KABE 272351Z 12008KT 10SM SCT028 BKN035 23/21 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP133

T02330206 10267 20233 53007=T02330206 10267 20233 53007=

Observations from AllentownObservations from Allentown► KABE 280051Z 11008KT 10SM FEW013 BKN041 22/20 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T02220200=KABE 280051Z 11008KT 10SM FEW013 BKN041 22/20 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T02220200=► KABE 280119Z 10010KT 10SM BKN013 OVC034 22/20 A2996 RMK AO2=KABE 280119Z 10010KT 10SM BKN013 OVC034 22/20 A2996 RMK AO2=► KABE 280127Z 11008KT 10SM BKN015 OVC034 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2=KABE 280127Z 11008KT 10SM BKN015 OVC034 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2=► KABE 280151Z 09006KT 10SM BKN015 BKN080 OVC100 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02220194=KABE 280151Z 09006KT 10SM BKN015 BKN080 OVC100 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02220194=► KABE 280213Z 08007KT 10SM SCT013 BKN100 OVC110 22/19 A2995 RMK AO2=KABE 280213Z 08007KT 10SM SCT013 BKN100 OVC110 22/19 A2995 RMK AO2=► KABE 280241Z 08007KT 10SM BKN013 BKN028 BKN095 22/19 A2995 RMK AO2=KABE 280241Z 08007KT 10SM BKN013 BKN028 BKN095 22/19 A2995 RMK AO2=► KABE 280251Z 09006KT 10SM BKN013 BKN028 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02170194 51009=KABE 280251Z 09006KT 10SM BKN013 BKN028 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02170194 51009=► KABE 280351Z 09009KT 10SM OVC011 21/19 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB0255E09 SLP141 P0000 T02110194=KABE 280351Z 09009KT 10SM OVC011 21/19 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB0255E09 SLP141 P0000 T02110194=► KABE 280451Z 10009KT 10SM OVC011 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP136 T02110194 402670183=KABE 280451Z 10009KT 10SM OVC011 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP136 T02110194 402670183=► KABE 280551Z 09007KT 10SM -RA OVC009 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB26 CIG 006V013 SLP134 P0002 60002 T02060194 10233 KABE 280551Z 09007KT 10SM -RA OVC009 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB26 CIG 006V013 SLP134 P0002 60002 T02060194 10233

2020620206► 56007=56007=► KABE 280608Z 10006KT 10SM FEW007 BKN013 OVC024 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE0555 P0000=KABE 280608Z 10006KT 10SM FEW007 BKN013 OVC024 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE0555 P0000=► KABE 280622Z 09007KT 10SM BKN009 BKN013 OVC024 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 RAE0555 CIG 006V011 P0000=KABE 280622Z 09007KT 10SM BKN009 BKN013 OVC024 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 RAE0555 CIG 006V011 P0000=► KABE 280651Z 10008KT 10SM OVC009 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE0555 CIG 006V014 SLP131 P0000 T02060194=KABE 280651Z 10008KT 10SM OVC009 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE0555 CIG 006V014 SLP131 P0000 T02060194=► KABE 280751Z AUTO 09008KT 10SM -RA OVC009 21/19 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB10E19B51 CIG 006V012 SLP127 P0000 T02060194 KABE 280751Z AUTO 09008KT 10SM -RA OVC009 21/19 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB10E19B51 CIG 006V012 SLP127 P0000 T02060194

TSNO=TSNO=► KABE 280851Z AUTO 10007KT 8SM RA BKN007 BKN018 OVC045 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0010 60010 T02000194 55006 KABE 280851Z AUTO 10007KT 8SM RA BKN007 BKN018 OVC045 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0010 60010 T02000194 55006

TSNO=TSNO=► KABE 280910Z AUTO 09007KT 5SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN030 OVC060 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO=KABE 280910Z AUTO 09007KT 5SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN030 OVC060 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO=► KABE 280910Z AUTO 09007KT 5SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN030 OVC060 20/19A2992=KABE 280910Z AUTO 09007KT 5SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN030 OVC060 20/19A2992=► KABE 280920Z AUTO 09006KT 7SM -RA SCT007 BKN026 OVC047 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 P0007 TSNO=KABE 280920Z AUTO 09006KT 7SM -RA SCT007 BKN026 OVC047 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 P0007 TSNO=► KABE 280951Z 09007KT 10SM -RA FEW007 OVC024 21/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 P0007 T02060194=KABE 280951Z 09007KT 10SM -RA FEW007 OVC024 21/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 P0007 T02060194=► KABE 281032Z 09007KT 10SM FEW006 BKN014 OVC031 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE01 P0000=KABE 281032Z 09007KT 10SM FEW006 BKN014 OVC031 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE01 P0000=► KABE 281051Z 09007KT 10SM BKN008 OVC016 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE01 CIG 005V013 SLP131 P0000 T02060194=KABE 281051Z 09007KT 10SM BKN008 OVC016 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE01 CIG 005V013 SLP131 P0000 T02060194=► KABE 281151Z 09006KT 10SM OVC006 21/20 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB28E47 SLP137 P0000 60017 70019 T02060200 10206 20200 KABE 281151Z 09006KT 10SM OVC006 21/20 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB28E47 SLP137 P0000 60017 70019 T02060200 10206 20200

53009=53009=

Synoptic PatternSynoptic Pattern

RadarRadar

Surface AnalysisSurface Analysis

VerificationVerification

StandingsStandings

Lessons Learned - ABELessons Learned - ABE

►The distance to the action makes a The distance to the action makes a difference in initiation of rain – that is a difference in initiation of rain – that is a slow moving disturbance’s advection fields slow moving disturbance’s advection fields (thermal and wind) lose their influence (thermal and wind) lose their influence farther away from its boundariesfarther away from its boundaries

►Precipitation tends to be ‘debris’ in a near Precipitation tends to be ‘debris’ in a near steady-state environmentsteady-state environment

►Low ceilings are easier to come by in a Low ceilings are easier to come by in a very humid air mass!very humid air mass!

Fort Wayne, INFort Wayne, IN

Fort Wayne, INFort Wayne, IN

FAA Identifier: FWA Lat/Long: 40-58-42.5000N / 085-11-42.6000W40-58.708333N / 085-11.710000W40.9784722 / -85.1951667(estimated) Elevation: 814 ft. / 248.1 m (surveyed) Variation: 03W (1985) From city: 7 miles SW of FORT WAYNE, IN

Observations from Fort WayneObservations from Fort WayneKFWA 271754Z 16016G21KT 10SM FEW023 BKN070 BKN230 17/11 A2977 RMK AO2 KFWA 271754Z 16016G21KT 10SM FEW023 BKN070 BKN230 17/11 A2977 RMK AO2

SLP081 60011 T01670111 10167 20111 58008=SLP081 60011 T01670111 10167 20111 58008=KFWA 271854Z 16014KT 10SM FEW031 BKN070 BKN085 17/11 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP075 KFWA 271854Z 16014KT 10SM FEW031 BKN070 BKN085 17/11 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP075

T01720106=T01720106=KFWA 271923Z 26007KT 5SM RA BR BKN029 OVC037 13/11 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 KFWA 271923Z 26007KT 5SM RA BR BKN029 OVC037 13/11 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07

P0002=P0002=KFWA 271940Z 26006KT 5SM +RA BR OVC031 13/11 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0007=KFWA 271940Z 26006KT 5SM +RA BR OVC031 13/11 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0007=KFWA 271954Z 24010KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT031 BKN035 OVC044 13/12 A2977 RMK KFWA 271954Z 24010KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT031 BKN035 OVC044 13/12 A2977 RMK

AO2 RAB07 SLP081 P0021 T01280117=AO2 RAB07 SLP081 P0021 T01280117=KFWA 272010Z 22004KT 4SM RA BR FEW029 BKN044 OVC065 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 KFWA 272010Z 22004KT 4SM RA BR FEW029 BKN044 OVC065 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2

P0010=P0010=KFWA 272054Z 16003KT 10SM FEW055TCU BKN075 BKN250 14/12 A2976 RMK AO2 KFWA 272054Z 16003KT 10SM FEW055TCU BKN075 BKN250 14/12 A2976 RMK AO2

RAE44 SLP076 TCU W P0012 60033 T01440122RAE44 SLP076 TCU W P0012 60033 T01440122 57005=57005=KFWA 272154Z 18004KT 10SM SCT017 BKN026 BKN070 BKN140 15/13 A2978 RMK AO2 KFWA 272154Z 18004KT 10SM SCT017 BKN026 BKN070 BKN140 15/13 A2978 RMK AO2

SLP082 T01500128=SLP082 T01500128=KFWA 272207Z 20004KT 10SM FEW017 BKN030 BKN075 BKN140 15/12 A2977 RMK KFWA 272207Z 20004KT 10SM FEW017 BKN030 BKN075 BKN140 15/12 A2977 RMK

AO2=AO2=KFWA 272254Z 25010G15KT 10SM FEW022 BKN085 BKN110 BKN250 15/12 A2979 RMK KFWA 272254Z 25010G15KT 10SM FEW022 BKN085 BKN110 BKN250 15/12 A2979 RMK

AO2 SLP087 T01500117=AO2 SLP087 T01500117=KFWA 272354Z 23004KT 10SM FEW022 BKN055 OVC200 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP092 KFWA 272354Z 23004KT 10SM FEW022 BKN055 OVC200 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP092

60033 T01330111 10178 20128 51015=60033 T01330111 10178 20128 51015=

Observations from Fort Observations from Fort WayneWayne

► KFWA 272354Z 23004KT 10SM FEW022 BKN055 OVC200 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP092 60033 T01330111 10178 KFWA 272354Z 23004KT 10SM FEW022 BKN055 OVC200 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP092 60033 T01330111 10178 20128 51015=20128 51015=

► KFWA 280054Z 14004KT 10SM FEW050 SCT100 OVC200 12/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP093 T01220106=KFWA 280054Z 14004KT 10SM FEW050 SCT100 OVC200 12/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP093 T01220106=► KFWA 280126Z 19008KT 10SM BKN026 OVC100 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2=KFWA 280126Z 19008KT 10SM BKN026 OVC100 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2=► KFWA 280154Z 20007KT 10SM OVC021 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP096 T01330106=KFWA 280154Z 20007KT 10SM OVC021 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP096 T01330106=► KFWA 280216Z 18006KT 10SM SCT021 OVC031 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2=KFWA 280216Z 18006KT 10SM SCT021 OVC031 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2=► KFWA 280251Z 18007KT 10SM BKN019 OVC032 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2=KFWA 280251Z 18007KT 10SM BKN019 OVC032 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2=► KFWA 280254Z 18006KT 10SM BKN019 OVC029 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP093 T01330106 51002=KFWA 280254Z 18006KT 10SM BKN019 OVC029 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP093 T01330106 51002=► KFWA 280251Z 18007KT 10SM BKN019 OVC032 13/11 A2981=KFWA 280251Z 18007KT 10SM BKN019 OVC032 13/11 A2981=► KFWA 280254Z 18006KT 10SM BKN019 OVC029 13/11 A2981=KFWA 280254Z 18006KT 10SM BKN019 OVC029 13/11 A2981=► KFWA 280354Z 17006KT 9SM OVC019 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP091 T01330106=KFWA 280354Z 17006KT 9SM OVC019 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP091 T01330106=► KFWA 280454Z 16007KT 10SM -DZ OVC017 13/11 A2979 RMK AO2 DZB11 SLP087 P0000 T01280111 401780106=KFWA 280454Z 16007KT 10SM -DZ OVC017 13/11 A2979 RMK AO2 DZB11 SLP087 P0000 T01280111 401780106=► KFWA 280554Z 18007KT 10SM BKN021 BKN030 OVC035 13/11 A2978 RMK AO2 DZE27RAB27E47 SLP082 P0000 KFWA 280554Z 18007KT 10SM BKN021 BKN030 OVC035 13/11 A2978 RMK AO2 DZE27RAB27E47 SLP082 P0000

60000 T01330106 1013960000 T01330106 10139► 20122 58009=20122 58009=► KFWA 280654Z 18006KT 8SM FEW010 BKN021 OVC033 13/12 A2978 RMK AO2 RAB06E53 SLP084 P0002 T01280117=KFWA 280654Z 18006KT 8SM FEW010 BKN021 OVC033 13/12 A2978 RMK AO2 RAB06E53 SLP084 P0002 T01280117=► KFWA 280754Z 19007KT 8SM OVC016 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP081 T01280117=KFWA 280754Z 19007KT 8SM OVC016 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP081 T01280117=► KFWA 280854Z 20004KT 8SM FEW013 BKN023 OVC035 13/12 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP083 60002 T01280117 55000=KFWA 280854Z 20004KT 8SM FEW013 BKN023 OVC035 13/12 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP083 60002 T01280117 55000=► KFWA 280954Z 18005KT 8SM FEW022 BKN029 OVC038 13/11 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP085 T01280111=KFWA 280954Z 18005KT 8SM FEW022 BKN029 OVC038 13/11 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP085 T01280111=► KFWA 281054Z 19006KT 6SM BR SCT014 OVC027 13/11 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP087 T01280111=KFWA 281054Z 19006KT 6SM BR SCT014 OVC027 13/11 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP087 T01280111=► KFWA 281115Z 19005KT 7SM FEW018 OVC035 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2=KFWA 281115Z 19005KT 7SM FEW018 OVC035 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2=► KFWA 281143Z 19005KT 6SM BR BKN020 OVC035 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2=KFWA 281143Z 19005KT 6SM BR BKN020 OVC035 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2=► KFWA 281154Z 20005KT 5SM BR SCT020 BKN029 OVC037 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP091 60002 70046 T01280111 KFWA 281154Z 20005KT 5SM BR SCT020 BKN029 OVC037 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP091 60002 70046 T01280111

10133 20122 53008=10133 20122 53008=

Synoptic PatternSynoptic Pattern

RadarRadar

Surface AnalysisSurface Analysis

VerificationVerification

StandingsStandings

Lessons Learned – Fort Lessons Learned – Fort WayneWayne

►The east side of a trough is the action zone.The east side of a trough is the action zone.►The advection fields are more dynamic The advection fields are more dynamic

near the center of the upper cut-off.near the center of the upper cut-off.►Breaks in the clouds produce self-destruct Breaks in the clouds produce self-destruct

showers.showers.►Winds can be gusty due to mixing from Winds can be gusty due to mixing from

convection.convection.►Temperatures tend to stay in a narrow Temperatures tend to stay in a narrow

range.range.