metals & energy june 2, 2016 - aditya birla group...metals & energy june 2,2016 aditya birla...
TRANSCRIPT
Metals & Energy June 2, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Market synopsis Precious Metals
Base metals
High Low Close %Chg OI
High Low Close %Chg OI
MCX
MCX (Rs/kg)
Gold(Jun) (Rs/10 gm) 28,798 28,480 28,646 0.1 8,374
Alum.(June) 106.5 104.1 106.1 1.5 2,444
Silver(July) (Rs/kg) 38,780 38,270 38,460 0.2 12,821
Copper(June) 312.3 307.8 310.5 (0.7) 29,730
Gold Mini (Rs/10 gm) 28,800 28,500 28,626 0.1 8,226
Lead(June) 116.3 113.0 116.2 1.4 3,402
Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 38,786 38,277 38,468 0.2 14,198
Nickel(June) 576.4 566.5 574.1 0.4 26,841
COMEX (US$/oz)
Zinc(June) 133.7 127.8 133.1 2.7 9,781
Gold(Jun) 1,219.8 1,205.4 1,211.9 (0.2) 490,097
COMEX (US$/Ib)
Silver(July) 16.11 15.83 15.93 (0.4) 198,039
Copper 209.0 205.2 207.3 (1.1) 224,730
Ratios
LME Inventory levels
in US$ in US$ Ratio
Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg
Gold v/s Oil 1,211.9 49.0 24.7
Aluminum 2,520,175 2,529,100 (0.4)
Gold v/s Silver 1,211.9 15.93 76.1
Copper 154,350 151,725 1.7
Lead 185,375 185,475 (0.1)
Energy
Nickel 401,508 401,766 (0.1)
High Low Close %Chg OI
Zinc 380,450 380,700 (0.1)
MCX
Cr. oil(June) (Rs/bbl) 3,320 3,233 3,308 (0.8) 22,245
Currency
Nat.gas(June) (Rs/mmbtu) 161.9 153.8 161.3 4.1 14,321
Close Prev close %Chg
NYMEX
Rs/US$ 67.4538 67.2600 0.3
Cr. oil(Jul) (US$/bbl) 49.3 47.8 49.0 (0.2) 1,722,375
US$/EUR 1.1188 1.1132 0.5
Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) 50.0 48.7 49.7 0.1 2,190,724
US$/GBP 1.4416 1.4483 (0.5)
Nat.gas(Jul) (US$/mmbtu) 2.39 2.28 2.38 4.1 1,054,447
JPY/US$ 109.5400 110.7300 (1.1)
Pivot Levels MCX levels
Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
Gold 28,896 28,805 28,721 28,646 28,571 28,487 28,396
Silver 38,860 38,715 38,580 38,460 38,340 38,205 38,060
Aluminum 107.89 107.23 106.60 106.05 105.50 104.88 104.21
Copper 313.94 312.68 311.50 310.45 309.40 308.23 306.96
Lead 118.74 117.80 116.93 116.15 115.37 114.50 113.56
Nickel 581.9 579.1 576.4 574.1 571.8 569.2 566.3
Zinc 137.68 136.00 134.44 133.05 131.66 130.10 128.42
Crude oil 3,376 3,352 3,328 3,308 3,288 3,265 3,240
Nat. Gas 167.66 165.35 163.20 161.30 159.40 157.25 154.94
International levels
Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
Gold 1,223.20 1,219.10 1,215.28 1,211.90 1,208.52 1,204.70 1,200.60
Silver 16.14 16.06 15.99 15.93 15.86 15.79 15.71
COMEX Copper 210.283 209.200 208.193 207.300 206.407 205.400 204.317
Crude oil 50.19 49.76 49.36 49.01 48.66 48.26 47.83
Br. Crude oil 50.78 50.40 50.04 49.72 49.40 49.05 48.66
Nat. Gas 2.467 2.436 2.407 2.381 2.355 2.327 2.295
LME Aluminum 1,594.12 1,585.00 1,576.52 1,569.00 1,561.48 1,553.00 1,543.88
LME Copper 4,681.37 4,658.00 4,636.27 4,617.00 4,597.73 4,576.00 4,552.63
LME Nickel 8,588.83 8,547.50 8,509.08 8,475.00 8,440.93 8,402.50 8,361.18
LME Lead 1,748.86 1,734.75 1,721.63 1,710.00 1,698.37 1,685.25 1,671.14
LME Zinc 2,036.94 2,013.00 1,990.74 1,971.00 1,951.26 1,929.00 1,905.06
A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day.
Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.
Metals & Energy June 2, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Market news and Technical forecast
Gold prices pared early gains and moved into
negative territory, as the dollar briefly pared
losses following U.S. manufacturing data and as
U.S. equities came off their lows, while the
market tried to assess how close the Federal
Reserve is to raising interest rates.
Data yesterday showed U.S. manufacturing
activity expanded for the third straight month in
May, but growth in new orders slowed further as
factories grappled with sluggish overseas
demand and weak capital spending in the energy
sector.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,210.31 per ounce
in aftermarket hour trades, falling for the tenth
out of the last 11 sessions. Gold shed around 6%
in May, its biggest decline in six months.
U.S. futures for August delivery closed down
0.2% at $1,214.7 per ounce.
The holdings of SPDR Gold trust increased to
870.74 tons, as on June 1, while that of ishares
Silver trust declined to 10,442.66 tons, as of May
23.
The Fed's Beige Book report pointed to rising
labor costs’, potentially making policymakers
more comfortable that inflation is on track to rise
to the central bank's 2% target.
Technical outlook:
Gold’s intra-day trend looks sideways to up till
prices are trading above 28845, while on the
upside prices may test levels at 29070-29150.
Silver’s intra-day trend looks down till prices are
trading below 38700-38800, while on the
downside prices may test 38200-37900 levels.
Precious metals
Metals & Energy June 2, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Market news and Technical forecast
Crude oil prices closed lower, after facing
technical resistance at around the $50 per barrel
mark, with the market retracing earlier declines
after OPEC sources said the group will likely
consider a production curb at its forthcoming
meeting.
However, prices briefly slipped further after
settlement when an industry group said its
weekly data showed a surprise build in U.S. crude
inventories and Iran's oil minister called for OPEC
to adopt the radical idea of production quotas
for individual member countries instead of for
the group as a whole.
American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise
build of nearly 2.4mn barrels in U.S. crude
stockpiles last week, distillates stocks dropped
1.15mn barrels, and gasoline stock declined
1.48mn barrels, slightly more than expected.
Natural gas futures rallied for the third straight
session, climbing to a 5-month high as forecasts
for the first 2-weeks of June pointed to intense
heat, boosting near-term demand expectations.
Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the
summer months as warmer temperatures
increase the need for gas-fired electricity to
power air conditioning.
Technical outlook:
Crude oil’s trend looks sideways to down till
prices are trading till prices are trading below
3320, while on the downside support holds at
3230-3218 levels.
Natural gas trend remains positive till prices are
trading above 159.5-157.5, while on the upside
prices may rally further towards 164-166 levels.
Energy complex
Metals & Energy June 2, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Market news and Technical forecast
Zinc surged to its highest level in 10-months, as
speculators bet that weaker supplies would
create shortages, but copper touched a one-
week low on worries about demand in top
consumer China.
Speculators pushed zinc prices through key
technical levels, fuelling a rally by triggering pre-
set buying orders, also other industrial metals
got a fillip late in the session from a report that
OPEC will consider setting a new oil output
ceiling at its meeting on Thursday.
3-month zinc on LME climbed 2.5% to close at
$1,971 per ton, the strongest since July 30 last
year. LME copper finished down 1.1% at
$4,619.5, after touching a session low of
$4,565.5, the weakest since May 24.
LME data also showed copper inventories rose
2,625 tons on Wednesday, and have gained
about 8% since early April.
China's manufacturing activity showed signs of
steadying in May, but remained weak reflecting
soft demand at home and abroad, suggesting the
world's second-largest economy is still struggling
to regain traction.
Technical outlook:
Copper’s intra-day trend looks sideways to down
till prices are trading below 312.5, while on the
downside prices may test 307-306.
Nickel’s trend looks positive till prices are trading
above 566.4, while on the upside resistance is
seen at 580-583.
Lead’s trend looks positive till prices are trading
above 113-114, while on the upside prices may
test 117-118.5 levels.
Base metals
Metals & Energy June 2, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
11
45
11
55
11
65
11
75
11
85
11
95
12
05
12
15
12
25
12
35
12
45
12
55
12
65
12
75
12
85
Call OI chg. Put OI chg.
Spreads and Arbitrage Calendar spreads
Global Indices
Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close
Markets Close Prev close %Chg
Precious metals
Asia
Gold (Rs/10 gm) 28,646 28,990 344 309
Sensex 26,713.9 26,668.0 0.2
Silver (Rs/kg) 38,460 38,400 683 717
Nifty 8,180.0 8,160.1 0.2
Nikkie 16,955.7 17,235.0 (1.6)
Base metals
Hang Seng 20,761.0 20,815.1 (0.3)
Alum. (Rs/kg) 106.1 106.9 0.85 1.00
Shanghai 2,913.5 2,916.6 (0.1)
Copper (Rs/kg) 310.5 314.9 4.45 4.40
Straits Times 2,790.5 2,791.1 (0.0)
Lead (Rs/kg) 116.2 116.8 0.60 0.70
Nickel (Rs/kg) 574.1 580.6 6.50 6.60
America
Zinc (Rs/kg) 133.1 133.8 0.70 0.65
Dow Jones 17,789.7 17,787.2 0.0
Nasdaq 4,952.3 4,948.1 0.1
Energy
Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 3,308 3,356 48 45
Europe
Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) 161.3 167.0 5.7 6.9
CAC 4,475.4 4,505.6 (0.7)
DAX 10,204.4 10,262.7 (0.6)
National-International price parity
FTSE 6,191.9 6,230.8 (0.6)
MCX COMEX Close* Prev close*
INR 67.45 67.26
Arbitrage
Gold 28,646 1,211.90 (60.44) (59.43)
Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg
Silver 38,460 15.93 (229.91) (323.78)
Lead - Zinc (16.90) (15.00) 12.7
Copper 310.5 207.300 2.17 1.77
COMEX Gold - Silver 76.09 75.95 0.2
Crude oil 3,308 49.0 2.09 30.53
Brent - U.S. crude 0.71 0.59 20.3
*MCX premium/ (discount)
COMEX Gold Options (Near month i.e. July)
Near + 1 month i.e. August
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
11
45
11
55
11
65
11
75
11
85
11
95
12
05
12
15
12
25
12
35
12
45
12
55
12
65
12
75
12
85
Call OI Put OI
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
11
45
11
55
11
65
11
75
11
85
11
95
12
05
12
15
12
25
12
35
12
45
12
55
12
65
12
75
12
85
Call OI chg. Put OI chg.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
11
45
11
55
11
65
11
75
11
85
11
95
12
05
12
15
12
25
12
35
12
45
12
55
12
65
12
75
12
85
Call OI Put OI
Metals & Energy June 2, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Economic calendar
Date
Country /
Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous
30-May EUR German Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 17:30 0.3% 0.30% -0.40%
EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 17:30 0.1% 0.10% -0.10%
31-May JPY Jobless Rate 5:20 3.2% 3.20% 3.20%
JPY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 5:20 -3.5% -5.10% 0.20%
JPY Small Business Confidence 10:30 45.6 47.50 47.80
EUR German Unemployment Change 13:25 11k -5k -16k
EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 13:25 6.1% 6.20% 6.20%
EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (y-o-y) 14:30 -0.1% -0.10% -0.20%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (y-o-y) 14:30 0.8% 0.70% 0.70%
EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 14:30 10.2% 10.20% 10.20%
USD Personal Income 18:00 0.4% 0.40% 0.40%
USD Personal Spending 18:00 1% 0.60% 0.00%
USD Real Personal Spending 18:00 0.6% 0.40% 0.00%
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (m-o-m) 18:00 0.2% 0.20% 0.10%
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (y-o-y) 18:00 1.6% 1.60% 1.60%
USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (y-o-y) 18:30 5.15% 5.32%
USD Consumer Confidence 19:30 92.6 96.20 94.70
1-Jun CNY Manufacturing PMI 6:30 50.1 50.00 50.10
CNY Non-manufacturing PMI 6:30 53.1 53.50
CNY Caixin China PMI Mfg. 7:15 49.2 49.30 49.40
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg. 7:30 47.7 47.60
EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 13:25 52.1 52.40 52.40
EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 13:30 51.5 51.50 51.50
GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings 14:00 0.3b 3.8b 7.4b
GBP Mortgage Approvals 14:00 66.3k 67.9k 70.3k
GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. 14:00 50.1 49.60 49.40
USD MBA Mortgage Applications 16:30 -4.1% 2.30%
USD ISM New Orders 19:30 63.5 55.80
USD Construction Spending (m-o-m) 19:30 -1.8% 0.50% 1.50%
USD ISM Manufacturing 19:30 51.3 50.60 50.80
USD ISM Prices Paid 19:30 63.5 58.00 59.00
USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 23:30
2-Jun JPY Monetary Base End of period 5:20 ¥386.7t ¥386.2t
JPY Monetary Base (y-o-y) 5:20 25.5% 26.80%
JPY Consumer Confidence Index 10:30 40.80
GBP Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI 14:00 52.00 52.00
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 17:15 0.00% 0.00%
EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate 17:15 -0.40% -0.40%
EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 17:15 0.25% 0.25%
EUR ECB Asset Purchase Target 17:15 EU80b EU80b
USD ADP Employment Change 17:45 178k 156k
USD Continuing Claims 18:00 2152k 2163k
USD Initial Jobless Claims 18:00 270k 268k
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 20:30 -4226k
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 20:30 -649k
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 20:30 2043k
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 20:30 -1284k
3-Jun CNY Caixin China PMI Services 7:15 51.80
CNY Caixin China PMI Composite 7:15 50.80
Metals & Energy June 2, 2016
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Services 7:30 49.30
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Composite 7:30 48.90
GBP Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI 14:00 52.30 51.90
GBP Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI 14:00 542.,50 52.30
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (y-o-y) 14:30 2.10% 2.10%
USD Unemployment Rate 18:00 5.00% 5.00%
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls 18:00 170k 160k
USD Change in Private Payrolls 18:00 160k 171k
USD Average Hourly Earnings (m-o-m) 18:00 0.20% 0.30%
USD Trade Balance 18:00 -$43.0b -$40.4b
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 19:30 55.50 55.70
USD Factory Orders 19:30 0.50% 1.10%
USD Durable Goods Orders 19:30 3.40%
USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 22:30 404
Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research
022-61325232/ 022-61325249/ 022-31923810
[email protected] Deepa Shakdwipee Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] Sivasubramaniam Palanisamy Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Sunil Darekar Advisor [email protected] Bharat Jha Advisor [email protected]
Disclaimer:
This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the
information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose
possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only
and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for
distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements.
The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this
material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this
document or on its completeness. Neither Aditya Birla Money Limited (ABML), its associate group companies, its directors, associates,
employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions
expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of Aditya Birla Money Limited or any of its
associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and
amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future
performance.
Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any
investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This
document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any
investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own
professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision.
Aditya Birla Money Limited, its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various
interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such
securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other interest with
respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions
Aditya Birla Money Limited is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SEBI Reg. No.
INH000002145