mergers & acquisitions business valuation c travel...

a Client Name

Sub Head

Banker Info Banker Title

MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS

BUSINESS VALUATION

CORPORATE FINANCE

MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Investment Bankers To The Middle Market

c Travel and Hospitality

November 8, 2012

Why Global Economic

Convergence Is a Myth

Presentation for:

United States-Mexico

Chamber of Commerce

Global Growth Drives Logistics?

Confidential and Proprietary 2

McLean International Services

Macro Overv iew

Premise: Global Growth Dr ives Logist ics

G lobal Dr ivers

$69.9 t r i l l ion?

$36 .8 t r i l l ion?

2 .3%?



Global Drivers

$69.9 t r i l l ion = Global GDP

$36 .8 t r i l l ion = G -20 Sovere ign Publ ic Debt

52 .6% of Global GDP

2.3%= Debt Average In terest Rate

$850 b i l l ion in in terest every year

G lobal GDP has to grow by a t least 2 .5%

every year just to s tay even



Global Drivers

BRICs

Braz i l

Russia

Ind ia

China

Dr iv ing Global Growth?



Global Drivers

BRICs

B r a z i l ’s g r o w t h h a s d r o p p e d f r o m 4 . 5 % t o 2 . 0 %

R u s s i a ’s h a s d r o p p e d f r o m 7 . 0 % t o 3 . 5 %

I n d i a ’s h a s d r o p p e d f r o m 9 . 0 % t o 6 . 0 %

C h i n a ’s g r o w t h h a s d r o p p e d b e l o w d o u b l e d i g i t s



Global Drivers

BRICs

I t i s ve r y d i f f i c u l t f o r a c o u n t r y o r r e g i o n t o s u s t a i n

r a p i d g r o w t h f o r m o r e t h a n a d e c a d e

O n l y M a l a ys i a , S i n g a p o r e , S o u t h K o r e a , Ta iw a n ,

T h a i l a n d a n d H o n g K o n g h a ve s u s t a i n e d a h i g h

g r o w t h r a t e f o r f o u r d e c a d e s



Global Drivers

BRICs

O f t h e 1 8 0 c o u n t r i e s t r a c k e d b y t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l

M o n e t a r y F u n d , o n l y 3 5 a r e D e ve l o p e d E c o n o m i e s

T h e B R I C s a r e R a p i d l y D e ve l o p i n g E c o n o m i e s t h a t

a r e s l o w i n g d o w n

T h e r e s t a r e E m e r g i n g M a r k e t s



Global Drivers

BRICs

T h e p e r c a p i t a i n c o m e g a p b e tw e e n D e ve l o p e d

E c o n o m i e s a n d t h e B R I C s a n d E m e r g i n g M a r k e t s h a s

s t e a d i l y w i d e n e d f r o m 1 9 5 0 t o 2 0 0 0

E m e r g i n g M a r k e t s s t a r t e d t o “ c a t c h u p ” a f t e r 2 0 0 0

A s o f 2 0 11 t h e i n c o m e g a p i s b a c k t o w h e r e i t w a s i n

t h e 1 9 5 0 s



Global Drivers

BRICs

F r o m 1 9 8 7 t o 2 0 0 2 B R I C s a n d E m e r g i n g M a r k e t s

s h a r e o f g l o b a l G D P a c t u a l l y f e l l , f r o m 2 3 % t o 2 0 %

C h i n a i s t h e o n l y e x c e p t i o n . I t s m a r k e t s h a r e

d o u b l e d t o 4 . 5 %

E m e r g i n g M a r k e t s ’ S t o c k M a r k e t g a i n s b e tw e e n 2 0 0 3

a n d 2 0 0 7 a ve r a g e d 3 7 %, b u t a r e e x p e c t e d t o s l o w t o

a b o u t 1 0 % i n t h e c o m i n g d e c a d e



Global Drivers

China

5 0 % o f t h e C h i n e s e p e o p l e n o w l i ve i n u r b a n a r e a s

C h i n a i s a p p r o a c h i n g “ t h e L e w i s t u r n i n g p o i n t ” a t

w h i c h p o i n t a c o u n t r y ’s r u r a l s u r p l u s l a b o r h a s b e e n

e x h a u s t e d

T h i s c o u p l e d w i t h C h i n a ’s “ o n e c h i l d ” p o l i c y m e a n s

t h a t l a b o r c o s t s a r e r a p i d l y e s c a l a t i n g

T h e g a p b e t w e e n w e a l t h y a n d p o o r i n C h i n a i s

a c c e l e r a t i n g



Global Drivers

Logist ics Growth Wi l l S low

A s g r o w t h s l o w s i n C h i n a a n d i n t h e A d va n c e d

I n d u s t r i a l Wo r l d ( U S & E U ) e x p o r t s w i l l s l o w

E x p o r t - d r i ve n c o u n t r i e s ( B r a z i l , M a l a ys i a , M e x i c o ,

R u s s i a , Ta iw a n ) s aw t h e i r t r a d e b a l a n c e s i n E m e r g i n g

M a r k e t s t r i p l e a s a s h a r e o f G D P t o 6 % - S i n c e 2 0 0 8

i t h a s f a l l e n t o h i s t o r i c a l l e ve l s o f 2 %



Global Drivers

Micro-Snapshots

A . P. M o e l l e r - M a e r s k A / S ( M A E R S K B ) , t h e w o r l d ’s

l a r g e s t c o n t a i n e r l i n e , s a i d i t w i l l r e m o ve 1 9 s h i p s

f r o m A s i a - E u r o p e t r a d e l a n e s i n a b i d t o b o l s t e r

r a t e s a s d e m a n d s l u m p s

I n t h e P a c i f i c , t h e U S We s t C o a s t - b o u n d c o n t a i n e r

vo l u m e s h a ve g r o w n b y j u s t 1 . 2 % i n t h e f i r s t e i g h t

m o n t h s o f t h e ye a r, a n d s aw a ye a r o ve r ye a r d r o p i n

vo l u m e s i n J u l y a n d A u g u s t .



Global Drivers

Global demand is s lowing

G lobal capaci ty w i l l shr ink accordingly

Ef f ic ient logist ics w i l l become ever more

impor tant



What is this?



Or this?



Global Drivers

$600 mi l l ion Google Cool ing Plant

and Server Center

Over 12 centers and 1 mi l l ion p lus servers

wor ldwide

3 b i l l ion da i ly search inqui r ies

Indexes 20 b i l l ion web pages da i ly

Free e -mai l s torage for 425 mi l l ion people



Global Drivers

Google has become one of the largest IT

manufacturers , bu i ld ing i ts own servers and

server centers

Google owns one of the largest f iber opt ic

networks in the wor ld

Google has an in terna l team (DiRT) that

a t tacks Google systems everyday to test and

improve i ts systems and logis t ics



Global Drivers

Big Data Logist ics

S e r ve r c e n t e r s c o n s u m e 1 . 5 % o f a l l t h e e l e c t r i c i t y

i n t h e w o r l d

B i g D a t a “ C l o u d ” d r i ve s g l o b a l g r o w t h

G l o b a l B i g D a t a g r o w t h d r i ve s

L o g i s t i c s G r ow t h

D a t a p r o d u c t i o n w i l l b e 4 4 t i m e s g r e a t e r i n 2 0 2 0 t h a n

i t w a s i n 2 0 0 9



Global Drivers

Big Data can automate your factory,

coordinate your supply chain , d is t r ibute your

products and d isrupt your business model

Where do you f i t?

Can you in tegrate your log is t ics w i th the

Googles of the wor ld?

I f not , can you compete against them?



Global Drivers

Seven Countr ies that are Winners a f ter 2008

South Korea - R&D spending 5% of GDP

Poland- 15 .8% GDP Growth

Canada- S lashed Tax Rates

Sweden- Debt 38% of GDP + Low Taxes

Indonesia - 4 .5% Growth Dur ing Recession

Turkey – Europe’s Largest Car Maker

&

Mexico



Global Drivers

Mexico’s Unchal lenged Tradi t ions

Nat ional is t Approach to Oi l Weal th

Sovere ignty Sensi t iv i ty

Entrenched Labor Monopol ies

Pers is tent Corrupt ion

Sel f -serv ing Bureaucracy



Global Drivers

Mexico’s Metamorphous

The vast major i ty of Mexicans now bel ieve

that the only way pol i t ic ians should get and

keep power is through the ba l lo t box and that

the c lamor for greater accountabi l i ty and less

corrupt ion is leg i t imate

H é c t o r A q u i l a r C a m i n a n d J o r g e G . C a s t a ň e d a

F o r e i g n A f f a i r s

N o v e m b e r / D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2



Global Drivers

Mexico’s Advantages

Po ised to pass leg is la t ion to a l low pr ivate

investment in Pemex

700,000 jobs created in 2010 as Mexico’s

factor ies chal lenge China

Growth ra te h igher than Braz i l



Global Drivers


In f la t ion and debt leve ls are low

Net migrat ion to U.S. in 2012 is n i l

Mexico is contending to rep lace China as

Amer ica ’s second largest t rad ing par tner a f ter

Canada



Global Drivers


The U.S. is s t i l l the largest economic engine

in the wor ld w i th a GDP of $15 t r i l l ion

Mexico is per fect ly co - located to in tegrate i ts

indust ry, b ig data and logis t ics w i th Amer ica


Richard L. Wottrich, Senior Consultant – International Services

McLean Chicago International Services Office – 312.346.5100

Direct – 312.286.5315 Fax – 312.276.4477 Email – [email protected]

The McLean Group, LLC - 155 N. Wacker Drive - Chicago, IL 60606 USA

Contact

mailto:[email protected]

mergers & acquisitions business valuation c travel...

Documents