mencuccini uimp 2014 drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursouimp2014/m_mencuccini.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Maurizio Mencuccini
FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, (UK)ICREA at CREAF (Barcelona, Spain)
![Page 2: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• plants, trees, forests • water• carbon• nutrients
• Tropics• Amazon• Africa• Borneo
• physiology• modelling
![Page 3: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
-Water and climate change globally
-Characteristics of soils and plants that affect the water cycle: plant functional traits
- Causes of drought-induced mortality around the word
- Case studies of local-regional mortality
Structure
![Page 4: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Forests, drought and global change
![Page 5: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Bonan (Science, 2008)
Important forest-atmosphere feedbacks: energy budget, hydrology, C cycle, land use
![Page 6: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Water as greenhouse gas
• Most important GH gas (more than CO2)
• More CO2 → More heat → More vapour → More heat (esp. tropics)
• Small GH effect compared to CO2
![Page 7: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Global water cycle
Consequences of increased air vapour pressure :• Greater greenhouse effect (positive feedback)• More clouds (more reflection of radiation – negative feedback)• Positive feedback > negative feedback• More transport of heat (clouds more buoyant, more wind, more storms)• More vapour for rain and snow (more storms, more floods, heavier rains,
more snow in places)
![Page 8: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Drought predictions worldwideChange in annual runoff for the period 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999:
IPCC (2008)
![Page 9: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Water in soil
• Soil organic matter affect water holding capacity of soils
• → link between C, nutrient and H2O cycles
![Page 10: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Water in plants
• Stomata in leaves• → inescapable trade-off between CO2
uptake and water loss • Water use efficiency
![Page 11: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Water in atmosphereParadox of warming:• More water in atmosphere (in absolute terms)• But plants perceive less water in atmosphere (in
relative terms!!!• Deficit in vapour pressure increases with T• Atmospheric drought• Increased plant water loss
![Page 12: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Strategies to cope with drought• Drought sensitive
• Drought tolerant (e.g., agave, cacti)
• Drought avoiders (e.g., Tamarix)
![Page 13: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The concept of stress
A load on biological systems that modifies metabolic processes and produces a strain in the organism.
![Page 14: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Definitions
1. Functional traits : organismal features (e.g., leaf size, rooting depth, leaf [N], phenology, seed size, etc.) relevant for the species’ response to the environment and for biotic interactions.
2. Functional diversity : the value, abundance and distribution of organismal functional traits in a community.
![Page 15: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
1) Wood economics spectrum
![Page 16: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Water transport / Mechanical support / Storage / Decay resistance
Angiosperms Gymnosperms
![Page 17: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Example: Effect of drought on wood hydraulics
• Development of emboli inside a Scots pine stem as drought increases (left to right)
![Page 18: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Xylem water potential
Free water with no solutes at sea level: WP=0Typical values: well watered: WP=-1.5 MPa= -15 atmDrought-stressed: WP=-3.0 / -6.0 MPa= -30 / -60 atm
![Page 19: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Global synthesis• 190 angiosperms,
32 gymnosperms
• Vertical distance from diagonal is hydraulic safety margin from hydraulic failure
• No differences across major biomes
Choat et al (2012)
![Page 20: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
wet
dry
• low LMA → high %N → high Amass• low LMA → low leaf lifespan → low resistance to herbivory
About 3,000 spp.(Wright et al 2004, Nature)
1) Leaf economics spectrum
![Page 22: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Leaf structure
Angiosperms
Gymnosperms
water and oxygen
Carbon
dioxide
![Page 23: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Leaf mass per area
Leaf mass / leaf area
Sources of variability in MLA:- Leaf thickness- Volume of air space- Number/size of mesophyll cells- Thickness/density epidermis
![Page 24: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Main objectives•Provide a global archive of plant traits
•Promote trait-based approaches in ecology and biodiversity science•Support the design of a new generation of global vegetation models
Current state of database and network•3 million trait records for about 69000 plant species
•591 participants from 207 scientific institutes worldwide•256 scientific projects requesting plant trait data from TRY
Quantifying and scaling global plant trait diversityTRY is a network of vegetation scientists headed byDIVERSITAS, IGBP, the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry and an international Advisory Board.
![Page 25: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
• Combined with global atmospheric circulation models• DGVM predict major processes of terrestrial biosphere at
temporal scales varying from months to centuries
![Page 26: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Plant functional types in DGVMs• PFT= Broad groups of species with common
physiological/morphological traits (e.g., needleleaf evergreen or deciduous trees, broadleaf evergreen or deciduous trees, shrubs, grasses, crops)
• Look-up tables of main traits for each group
![Page 27: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Functional traits and response to stresses
• In plants, we measure strain, not stress directly• When elastic strain stops, metabolism recovers• When plastic strain stops, metabolism is modified
![Page 28: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Example: Effects of high temperatures on photosynthetic traits
![Page 29: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Short-term repair after heat stress
![Page 30: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Response of plants to stresses
• Over longer time scales, plants respond to stress• Repair, hardening, acclimation, evolution
![Page 31: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Acclimation at multi-annual time scale: plasticity
� Plasticity is genetically controlled� Species differ in how plastic they are (there is a cost)� The environment as inducer of phenotypes
![Page 32: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Acclimation of photosynthesis to growing temperature in oak and birch
� The thermal optimum for photosynthesis increased with the increase in growth temperature The absolute values of respiration declined with increasing growth temperature
Growth T: Blue=ambient; orange=+2degree C; red=+4 degree C
![Page 33: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Plasticity along geographical clines� Study of the gas exchange and hydraulics of
Scots pine across Eurasia
Poyatos et al (Oecologia 2007)
Trailing edge of distribution
![Page 34: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Within-species plasticity: the case of Scots pine
AL:AS = area leaves / area stem (Corner’s rule)KS = stem hydraulic conductance (Wood economics)P50 = vulnerability to embolism (Wood economics)∆∆∆∆13C = Stomatal aperture (Leaf economics)
Martinez-Vilalta et al (New Phytol 2009)
![Page 35: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Mediterranean Europe: The case of Scots pine
NE Spain
Valais(Alps)
Martínez-Vilalta & Piñol (For Eco Man, 2002)
Bigler et al. (Ecosystems, 2006)
Limits to plasticity: mortality
![Page 36: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
1) Direct water stress (hydraulic failure)2) Carbon starvation
MacDowell et al. ( New Phyt, 2008)
Drought-induced mortality
![Page 37: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Hydraulic failure
• Development of emboli inside a Scots pine stem as drought increases (left to right)
![Page 38: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Long-term starvation due directly to higher T?
Adams et al. (PNAS, 2009)Pinon pine at biosphere 2
Carbon starvation
current
future
![Page 39: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Impacts at community level
• Species filtering• Trait filtering• Trait convergence
� Drought as a phenotypic filter
Funk et al (Trends Ecol Evol 2008)
Not intense / infrequent
Intense / Frequent
DR
OU
GH
T
AcclimationPlasticity
Phenotypic selection
Genotypic selection
![Page 40: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Hydrological consequences
• Radiation regime
• Water regime
• (Also carbon cycle)
• (Also nutrients cycles)
![Page 41: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Kurz et al. (Nature, 1998)
-Mountain pine beetle- British Columbia, Canada- ~80,000 km 2 affected.-Carbon losses equivalent to 75% of all Canada fire emissions for 1 year.- 10x larger than any previous known outbreak
Evidence of large scale mortality. Boreal.
Causes:- reduced winter T- increased summer T- reduced summer rainfall
![Page 42: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Records of mortality in large-scale undisturbed forest reserves in the old-growth stage of development
Van Mantgemet al. (Science, 2009)
Evidence of large scale mortality: temperate
![Page 43: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
1994 1994
1994, 1998…2005
Quercus ilex
Pinus sylvestris
Evidence of large scale mortality:Mediterranean Europe
![Page 44: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
MacDowell et al. (New Phytologist, 2008)
Pinus edulis
Juniperus monosperma
Evidence of large scale mortality: subdeserts
Piñon – juniper woodlands (SW USA)Up to 95% mortality in some areas
![Page 45: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Evidence of large scale mortality: tropics
How much has gone? ~ 16 % (depends on estimate)
Current rate? Approx. 1.9 million ha yr -1 (=19 000 km 2):~0.5 % yr -1
Laurance et al. 2001, Environmental Conservation, 28, 305; Fearnside 1999, Environmental Conservation, 26, 305
de Fries et al. 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy for Sciences (PNAS)
5 m km2 of which 4 m km2 originally forested
![Page 46: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Impacts
Logging: reduces canopy cover (50%), increases litt er…fire removes larger treescreates access (agriculture, hunting), affects eros ion
Fire: low resistance among rain forest treesincreases likelihood of short return time….total los ssynergism with climate and ignition sources (e.g., roads)
Fragmentation: edge effects on microclimate, fire v ulnerabilityeffect of patch size on population viabilitydistance between patches (dispersal)invasion by exotic species (e.g., grasses)
Climatic / hydrologic: Temperature changeRegional and local rainfallSmoke and dustImportance of large scale events (e.g., El Niño)
![Page 47: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
ImpactsFragment edges; micro climate
> 150 % of deforested area in 1988 (<100km2 block, <1km to edge)- increased turbulence, temp., drought stress, competition
→→→→ higher mortality, esp. big trees
Laurance et al. 2000, Nature, 404, 836
![Page 48: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Flammability feedbacks
• Drought or logging may increase dry fuel load
• Ground fires increase the probability of return fires
• Additional human occupation increases number of ignition sources
→ potential for much larger forest losses
![Page 49: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Climatic feedbacks
• Reduced rainfall from conversion to pasture
• Effect magnified by dust from intense dry season fires
• Interaction with global climate
→ increased local fire vulnerability, global costs
Carvalho et al. 2001, Nature, 409, 131
![Page 50: Mencuccini UIMP 2014 Drought and mortalityecodes.org/documentos/cursoUIMP2014/M_Mencuccini.pdf · Maurizio Mencuccini FORESTS, DROUGHT AND GLOBAL CHANGE School of GeoSciences, University](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070214/61145239c09d90725d3f8ea5/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
-Water cycle central to understanding of climate change
-Predictions of rainfall changes are highly uncertain but likely very region specific
-Water cycle in forests depend on characteristics of soils, plants and atmosphere; plant functional traits are central.
- Concerns about species distribution have begun to appear for several regions around the world
-Several case studies of local-regional mortality
Conclusions