mena real estate market commentary 27122011
DESCRIPTION
MENA Real Estate Market Commentary 27122011TRANSCRIPT
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Real Estate Market Commentary 18-Dec-11 to 24-Dec-11
Kuwait: In its Q3-11 report, Kuwait Finance House reported a c. 5% average price growth across governorates in the investment properties
segment (apartments); a stable price trend in commercial properties and c.3% growth in industrial property prices on a Q-o-Q basis. It also
indicated 90%-95% occupancy for investment properties and reported
stable rents across segments on a Q-o-Q basis. (Refer Charts 3 & 4).
Saudi Arabia: JLL, in its Q3-11 report on Riyadh real estate market,
reported that c.6,000 residential units were supplied during Q3-11 which were mostly absorbed and it estimated the total residential stock at
c.876,000 units. JLL reported a 4% Q-o-Q growth in villa prices and 1%
Q-o-Q growth in apartment prices during Q3-11 and suggested the preference for villas in end-user financing to be the cause of lower
growth in apartment prices. The report also indicated that villa rentals grew by 2.7% and apartment rentals grew by 2.6% during Q3-11. While
JLL had been reporting a shortage of residential compounds for expatriates during past several quarters, it suggested more supply of
apartments forthcoming in this segment (2,000 units by 2013), thus
signaling gradually diminishing opportunities.
JLL residential supply – Q3-Q1-11 estimate comparison
No of units
(„000s) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q3-11
Est.
Completed stock 876 882 912 941 973
Future supply 6 29 30 31 36
Q1-11
Est.
Completed stock 858 882 910 NA NA
Future supply 24 28 29 NA NA
On the office space front, JLL reported a supply of 20,000 sqm of office space during Q3-11 and estimated the total office stock in Riyadh at c.3
Mn Sqm with an addition of 11,000 sqm during Q4-11. JLL lowered its estimates for the forthcoming supply for 2012 and 2013 marginally by
c.100k sqm to 818,000 sqm, implying an addition of 25% to the existing
stock. It reported an annual take up of 200,000 sqm and indicated that the supply would be eventually absorbed over time. However, even if
we assume that the take up would remain at such high levels, which is not highly likely, it would take a minimum of 4 years to absorb this
supply.
JLL reported Grade A office rentals to have grown by 13% Y-o-Y to SAR 1,400/Sqm in Q3-11 driven by supply of higher quality space and
expected the supply to attract occupants of lower quality buildings. Grade B rents reportedly remained stable at c. SAR 1000/Sqm and
vacancy levels was reported at 12% city-wide and 16% for CBD during Q3-11.
Bahrain: Cluttons reportedly indicated that Bahrain would witness an
oversupply of office space as 100,000 Sqm of office space was added in 2011 and 60,000 Sqm is expected to be completed during 2012. It also
reportedly estimated the current occupancy rates at about 60–70% of total stock (850,000 Sqm), compared to 85–90% occupancy rates in
2009, and over 90% in 2007. On the residential front, Cluttons
reportedly expected flat to declining trends in rental rates depending on the location.
Research Highlights: A weekly market commentary
Contents Market Commentary
Charts to Note
Activity Monitor: Dubai,
Kuwait,
Riyadh - KSA,
Dammam – KSA
Qatar
Markaz Research is available on:
Bloomberg - Type “MRKZ” <Go>
Thomson Research, Reuters Knowledge
ReutersRealEstate.com Nooz
Zawya Investor
ISI Emerging markets
Venkat Ramadoss ACA, CFA
Assistant Manager +965 2224 8548
Bassam N. Al-Othman
Executive Vice President +965 2224 8011
M.R. Raghu CFA, FRM Head of Research
+965 2224 8280
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”
P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095,
Kuwait Tel: +965 2224 8000
Fax: +965 2242 5828
markaz.com
Developments sourced from various sources including news portals like Gulfbase, Zawya, Reuters, Bloomberg, Trade Arabia, Business 24/7, Arabian Business, The Peninsula, Gulf News, Property wire, Khaleej Times, Saudi Gazette, KUNA etc and also from published reports of real estate brokers and investment research houses.
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 2
Charts to note: Chart 1: Qatar –CPI & rental inflation
Source: Qatar Statistics Authority *RFE: Rent, fuel & energy
Chart 2: Kuwait CPI & rental inflation
Source: Central Statistics Office, Kuwait
-3.4%
0.4%
1.5%1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1%
-7.0%-6.7%
-5.4%-5.7%
-5.1%-4.5%
-3.8%-4.4%
-3.5%-3.6%
-4.3%
-5.8%-5.7%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Jan 2011
Feb 2011
Mar 2011
April 2011
May 2011
June 2011
July 2011
Aug 2011
Sept 2011
Oct 2011
Nov 2011
CPI Inflation RFE Inflation *
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Oct 2010
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Jan 2011
Feb 2011
Mar 2011
April 2011
May 2011
June 2011
July 2011
Aug 2011
Sept 2011
Oct 2011
CPI House Rent
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 3
Chart 3: Apartment rental trends in Kuwait – Capital and Hawalli
Source: Kuwait Finance House, Markaz analysis Note: 2BBHKM – 2 Bed-Bath-Hall-Kitchen-Maid room
Chart 4: Apartment rental trends in Kuwait – Other governorates
Source: Kuwait Finance House, Markaz analysis Note: 2BBHKM – 2 Bed-Bath-Hall-Kitchen-Maid room
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 4
Activity monitor
Dubai Real Estate Transactions (2011)
Transactions W-o-W Y-o-Y
Apartment No. 76.9% 294.6%
Value 40.5% 288.8%
Villa No. 23.1% 33.3%
Value 29.3% 58.5%
Land No. -23.2% 38.7%
Value -34.9% -7.6%
Total No. 59.3% 230.6%
Value 6.4% 100.6%
Land Transactions
Villa Transactions
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MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 5
Apartment Transactions
Source: Dubai Land Department Note: 1) The above table/chart represents transactions as per the registration date and not the transaction date
2) Outliers identified are removed for better clarity.
Kuwait Real Estate Transactions (2011)
Transactions W-o-W Y-o-Y
Private Residential
No. 5.1% 6.0%
Value 5.9% -1.4%
Investment No. -43.8% -28.0%
Value 12.0% -9.2%
Commercial No. N.A. N.A.
Value N.A. N.A.
Total No. -5.3% 0.0%
Value 7.9% -4.3%
Private Residential Property transactions
Source: MOJ, Kuwait
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MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 6
Investment Property transactions
Source: MOJ, Kuwait
KSA Real Estate Transactions (2011)
Riyadh Real Estate Transactions
Transactions W-o-W Y-o-Y
Residential Space 23.1% -93.7%
Value 1.5% -48.2%
Commercial Space 146.0% -46.9%
Value 132.4% 32.3%
Total Space 68.6% -88.0%
Value 50.9% -19.8%
Riyadh – Residential transactions
Source: MOJ
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Value Transacted (SAR Mn) Space (Mn Sq m)
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 7
Riyadh – Commercial transactions
Source: MOJ
Dammam Real Estate Transactions
Transactions W-o-W Y-o-Y
Residential Space 69.9% -6.9%
Value 75.2% 42.5%
Commercial Space -37.4% -90.9%
Value -37.6% -41.8%
Total Space -2.9% -81.5%
Value 22.2% 5.7%
Dammam – Residential transactions
Source: MOJ
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Value Transacted (SAR Mn) Space (Mn Sq m)
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 8
Dammam – Commercial transactions
Source: MOJ
Qatar Real Estate Transactions (2011)
Source: MOJ
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MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 9
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Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Economics
MENA Unrest (Apr-11) Kuwait Development Plan (Mar-11) Kuwait Investment Sector (Sept-10) The New Regulations on Kuwait Investment Sector (Jun-10) Kuwait Capital Market Law (Mar-10) The “Vicious Square” Monetary Policy options for Kuwait (Feb-08) To Leap or To Lag: Choices before GCC Regulators (Apr-07) GCC for Fundamentalists (Dec-06)
GCC Leverage Risk (Nov-06)
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Banking
Stress Testing Kuwait Banks (May-11) GCC Banks - Done with Provisions? (Jan-10) Shelter in a Storm (Mar-09) Banking Sweet spots (Apr-08)
Oil & Gas Diworsification: The GCC Oil Stranglehold (Jan-09) Monthly Regional Petroleum Projects Commentary Daily Oil & Gas Bulletin
Strategic Research KSE 15 Index (Sept-11) How is the GCC preparing for a AA+ World? (Sept-11) GCC Outlook 2H11 (Aug-11) What to expect in 2011 (Jan-11) The Golden Portfolio (Sept-10) Persistence in Performance (Jun-10) What to expect in 2010 (Jan-10) What is left for 2009? (Sept-09) Missing the Rally (Jun-09) This Too Shall Pass (Jan-09) Fishing in Troubled Waters (Dec-08) Down and Out: Saudi Stock Outlook (Oct-08) Mr. GCC Market-Manic Depressive (Sept-08) Global Investment Themes (June-08) To Yield or Not To Yield (May-08) China and India: Too Much Too Fast (Oct-07) A Potential USD 140b Industry: Review of Asset Management Industry in Kuwait (Sep-07) A Gulf Emerging Portfolio: And Why Not? (Jun-07) Derivatives Market in GCC (Mar-07) Managing GCC Volatility (Feb-07)
Periodic Research Annual GCC Market Outlook Quarterly Thought Speaks GCC Equity Funds GCC Corporate Earnings GCC Equity Research Statistics Monthly Market Review Weekly MENA Market Intelligence KSE Market Review International Market Update Daily Markaz Daily Morning Brief Markaz Kuwait Watch Daily Fixed Income Update
Company Research (See the list attached)
Capital Markets
Markaz Research Offerings
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH
Bahrain Batelco (Aug-10) Al Salam Bank (Aug-10) Gulf Finance House (Oct-08) Esterad Inv. Company (Aug-08) Bahrain Islamic Bank (Aug-08) Ithmaar Bank (July-08) Tameer (July-08)
Qatar Qatar National Bank (Oct-10) Qatar Gas Transport Co. (Sept-10) QISB (Sept-10) Masraf Al-Rayan (Jun-10) Commercial Bank of Qatar (Mar-10) Qatar Telecom (Jun-09) Industries Qatar (Apr-09) United Development Co. (Feb-09) Qatar Fuel Co. (Dec-08) Qatar Shipping Co (Dec-08) Barwa Real Estate Co. (Nov-08) Qatar Int‟l Islamic bank (Nov-08) Qatar Insurance Co. (Nov-08) Doha Bank (Aug-08) QEWC (July-08)
UAE NBAD (Mar-11) Union National Bank (Sept-10) FGB (Aug-10) Etisalat (Aug-10) Dubai Financial Market (Sept-09) ADCB (Jun-09) DP World (Jun-09) Sorouh Real Estate (Feb-09) Aldar Properties (Feb-09) Gulf Cement Company (Jan-09) Abu Dhabi National Hotels (Dec-08) Dubai Investments (Dec-08) Arabtec Holding (Dec-08) Air Arabia ( Nov-08) Union Properties (Nov-08) Dubai Islamic bank (Oct-08) Emaar Properties (July-08) Dana Gas (July-08)
Oman Bank Muscat (Mar-11) Raysut Cement Company (Sept-10) Shell Oman Marketing (Apr-10) Galfar Engineering & Cont. (Nov-08) Oman Telecommunications (Sept-08) Bank Muscat(Sept-08) Oman cement (Sept-08) National Bank of Oman (Aug-08) OIB (July-08)
Egypt Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Jul-10) Egypt Kuwait Holding (Mar-10) Commercial Int‟l Bank (Oct-08) Orascom Telecom (Sep-08) Mobinil (Sep-08) Telecom Egypt (Aug-08) EFG-Hermes (Jun-08)
Jordan Arab Bank (Sept-08) Cairo Amman Bank (Oct-08) Morocco Maroc Telecom (Mar-10)
Saudi Arabia Al Rajhi bank (Mar-11)
Saudi Telecom Co. (Feb-11)
Samba Financial Group (Aug-10) Jabal Omar Development (Jul-10)
Arabian Cement Co (Jul-10)
Yanbu Cement Co. (Jun-10) Emaar Economic City (Jun-10)
Qassim Cement Company (Jun-10)
Savola Group (May-10) Alinma Bank (May-10)
Jarir Marketing (May-10) Bank Al Bilad (May-10)
Bank Al Jazira (Apr-10)
Makkah Construction (Apr-10) Saudi Cement Company(Apr-10)
Southern Province Cement Co(Mar-10)
Saudi Electricity Company(Feb-10) Saudi Arabian Mining Co(Feb-10)
Yamama Saudi Cement (Feb-10)
Etihad Etisalat (Feb-10) Al Marai Company (Dec-09)
Arab National Bank (Oct-09)
SAFCO (Oct-09) Al Rajhi Bank (Aug-09)
Riyad Bank (Jul-09) Sabic (Mar-09)
Saudi Investment Bank (Jan-09)
Kingdom Holding Co (Dec-08) Saudi Kayan Petro Co. (Aug-08)
Banque Saudi Fransi (Jun-08)
Company Research
Markaz Research is available on: Bloomberg Type “MRKZ” <GO>,
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Kuwait (For Internal Use Only)
Qurain Petrochem. Ind. (Aug-10) Wataniya (Jul-10) Boubyan Bank (June-10) Agility (June-10) Gulf Bank of Kuwait (May -10) National Bank of Kuwait (Mar-10) Al Deera Holding (Aug-09) Kuwait Finance House (Apr-09) Kuwait Financial Centre (Dec-08) Commercial Bank of Kuwait (Oct-08) National Industries Group (Sept-08) Zain (Sept-08) Global Investment House (Sept-08) Kipco (Sept-08) The Investment Dar (Sept-08) Burgan Bank (Sept-08) Automated Systems Co (Aug-08) Al Safat Investment Co (July-08)
Markaz Company Research Coverage
MSCI Arabian Markets
Conventional MSCI Arabian Markets
Islamic Local Index
Saudi Arabia 60% 64% 78%
Kuwait 83% 92% 56%
Qatar 92% 90% 95%
UAE 79% 25% 58%
Bahrain 58% 74% 23%
Oman 63% 100% 50%
Egypt 62% 100% 45%
Jordan 39% 0% 32%
Morocco 50% 70% 24%
MENA 79% 93% 63%
Markaz Research Offerings
MENA REAL ESTATE RESEARCH