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TRANSCRIPT
May © 2016
From Technologies to Markets
Mems Engineering Forum, Tokyo
MEMS & Sensors for smart cities
Claire TROADEC
2
MEMS &
Sensors
LED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
Packaging
Batteries/Power Management
Power
Electronics
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
With 4 BUSINESS MODELS:
o Consulting and Analysis• Market data & research, marketing analysis• Technology analysis• Strategy consulting• Reverse engineering & costing• Patent analysis
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3
Cities today represent2% of the world surface
50% of the world population
75% of the consumed energy
80% of the economic activity
80% of the green house emission
Smart City definition from the UNECE (The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) :
our “Smart City” should be inclusive, resilient, safe, sustainable and “more connected”
SMART CITIES: KEY FACTS
By 2050, the world will be one-third rural (34%) and two-thirds urban (66%), roughly the reverse of the global rural-urban population distribution of the mid-twentieth century.
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World’s urban and rural populations, 1950-2015 (source: United Nations)
4
URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS BY MAJOR AREAS
Europe, with 73 % of its population living in urban areas, is expected to be over 80% urban by 2050.
Africa and Asia, in contrast, remain mostly rural, with 40% and 48% of their respective populations living in urban areas in 2014.
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
source: United Nations, 2014 study
5
URBAN POPULATION BY MAJOR AREAS
The world’s urban population is expected to increase by more than two thirds by 2050, with nearly 90% of the increase to take place in the urban areas of Asia and Africa.
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
source: United Nations, 2014 study
6
DISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S URBAN POPULATION
Cities are getting bigger and bigger…
©2016 | www.yole.fr |source: United Nations, 2014 study
7
ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS OF THE 10 LARGEST URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS
In 2014, Tokyo was the world’s largest city with an agglomeration of 38 million inhabitants, followed by Delhi with 25 million.
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source: United Nations, 2014 study
8
MEMS, A « TRANSFER FUNCTION » TECHNOLOGY
MEMS is a semiconductor technology thus enabling miniaturization and lower cost manufacturing of existing products
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Galvanometric
mirror
Pressure sensor
Hg tilt sensor
Microphone
Gas sensor
Syringe
Micro-mirror
VCM
MEMS gas sensor
Micro needles
WL auto focus
Microphone
IMU
Pressure/environment
sensor
2016, gas sensors as the
next MEMS success (?)
9©2016 | www.yole.fr |
SUMMARY OF TECHNOLOGIES OF IOT
Markets & sensors
Main applications of IoT devices and sensors associated with
Healthcare & Life scienceBuilding Automation TransportationConsumer & Home automation
TH
E
INTERNET OF THINGS
OFSENSORS
Industrial Retail & LogisticsEnvironment Security & Public Safety
Pressure
Temperature
Chemical
Light (IR, X-Ray)
Bio Sensors
Inertial
Light (IR, visible)
Temperature
Chemical (CO2)
Accelero
Contact Gyroscope
Accelero
Magneto
Pressure
Temperature
Chemical
Gyroscope
Accelero
Magneto
Microphone
Pressure
Temperature
Pressure
Light (IR,Optical)
Chemical
Temperature
Hall Effect
Accelero
Chemical
Temperature
Light (IR, visible)
Pressure
Humidity Gyro
Accelero
Magneto
Chemical
Light (IR,XRay,THz) Light (IR/Optical)
Pressure
Temperature
Chemical
Magneto
ChemicalGas
ChemicalMicrophone
ChemicalGas
Gas
Legend: Sensor
Level of demand
10©2016 | www.yole.fr |
SUMMARY OF TECHNOLOGIES OF SMART CITIES
Markets & sensors
Main applications of devices and sensors associated with smart cities
Healthcare & Life scienceBuilding Automation TransportationConsumer & Home automation
TH
E
INTERNET OF THINGS
OFSENSORS
Industrial Retail & LogisticsEnvironment Security & Public Safety
Pressure
Temperature
Chemical
Light (IR, X-Ray)
Bio Sensors
Inertial
Light (IR, visible)
Temperature
Chemical (CO2)
Accelero
Contact Gyroscope
Accelero
Magneto
Pressure
Temperature
Chemical
Gyroscope
Accelero
Magneto
Microphone
Pressure
Temperature
Pressure
Light (IR,Optical)
Chemical
Temperature
Hall Effect
Accelero
Chemical
Temperature
Light (IR, visible)
Pressure
Humidity Gyro
Accelero
Magneto
Chemical
Light (IR,XRay,THz) Light (IR/Optical)
Pressure
Temperature
Chemical
Magneto
ChemicalGas
ChemicalMicrophone
ChemicalGas
Gas
Legend: Sensor
Level of demand
SMARTSENSORS
CITIESFO
R
11
IOT FOR SMART CITIES: AREA OF APPLICATION
Today Building automation and Consumer & Home automation are the first areas to be served…
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
Today 2018 2020 2024+
Industrial
Healthcare & Life
Science
Environment
Security &
Public Safety
Building
Automation
Consumer &
Home automation
Transportation
12
MEMS & SENSORS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS 3 MAIN HUBS…
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Closed Package Hub
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
INERTIAL
DOF6
9IMU
ENVIRONMENTAL
Open Cavity Hub
Gas / Particle
Pressure
Temp/Humidity
Microphone
OPTICAL
Optical Hub
Visible
3D vision
Multi spectral
3D
Proximity/ambient
13
MEMS & SENSORS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS 3 MAIN HUBS…
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
Closed Package Hub
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
INERTIAL
DOF6
9IMU
ENVIRONMENTAL
Open Cavity Hub
Gas / Particle
Pressure
Temp/Humidity
Microphone
OPTICAL
Optical Hub
Visible
3D vision
Multi spectral
3D
Proximity/ambient
Important hub for Smart cities !
15
WHY IS GAS SENSING BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT?
The right technology at the right time
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
• Gas sensors are not new and several applications have existed for a while. Indeed, the use of gas
detectors for safety purposes in industrial environment, for defense and patient ventilation control
are quite mature already.
• We believe that the interest in gas sensing is becoming more and more important due to three main
causes:
- Driven by growing evidence on global air quality deterioration and increasing societal concerns, air
pollution has become a major topic in our society
- The emergence of new regulations (exhaust gases emission control, air quality monitoring at
school…) are boosting the market
- New technology developments (increase in sensitivity, miniaturization…) enable the emergence of
promising new large volume applications
16
2014–2021 GAS SENSORS FORECAST IN US$M
From
~$560M in 2014 to
~$920M in 2021
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
From ~$560M in 2014 to ~$920M in 2021
Industrial
Transport
Environment
Defense
Consumer
Medical
Building
Total marketUS $M value
17
2014 GAS SENSOR MANUFACTURERS MARKET SHARE (IN US$ VALUE)
A very fragmented business
City Technology (Honeywell), MSA and NGK-NTK were leading the gas sensors market in 2014
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
TOP 7 (> 5% market share) are City Technology, MSA, NGK NTK, Figaro, Bosch, Denso & Edinburgh Sensors.
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DETECTION PRINCIPLES
The main principles—what is the signal output?
The big detection families
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
Technology Principle Output
Optical detection (FTIR, NDIR,
photoacoustic)
It is based on wavelength absorption of the gas:
NIR to MWIR sources are used for IR
sensing/UV source are used for photo acoustic.
A shift in wavelength is measured,
correlated to the target gas.
Calorimetric/PellistorIt is based on burning target gases (it is mainly
for combustible gases).
A shift in temperature/resistance is
measured.
Electro chemicalIt is based on a RedOx chemical reaction
between sensors electrodes.A current intensity is measured.
Metal Oxide SemiconductorIt is mainly based on gas adsorption at the
sensor surface.A resistance change is measured.
ChemFETIt is based on a change in mass/dielectric
properties of a specific layer.
A change in mass/dielectric constant is
measured.
Acoustic
It is based on the measure of travel time of
ultrasound at a given distance to calculate
propagation velocity of ultrasonic waves.
Concentration is linked to velocity.
Gas velocity is measured.
Chromatography Gas is electrically charged. Output is electrical current.
Chemiluminescence
Chemiluminescence (sometimes
"chemoluminescence") is the emission of light
(luminescence), as the result of a chemical
reaction.
Output is light.
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GAS SENSING TECHNOLOGIES COMPARISON
No « Universal » solution for all possible applications
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
mm² 10 mm² 1 cm² 10 cm²Sensor surface
µW mW 0.1W 1 W
Power
consumption
$1 $10 $100 $1k $10kASP
Electrochemical
NDIR
NDIR
NDIR
Electrochemical
Electrochemical
MOS
MOS
Pellistor
Pellistor
Pellistor
Acoustic
Acoustic
Acoustic
ChemFET
ChemFET
ChemFET
Resonant
Resonant
Resonant
µGC
µGC
µGC
FTIR
FTIR
FTIR
kW
Chemiluminescence
1k cm²
Chemiluminescence
Chemiluminescence
MOS
20
GAS SENSING TECHNOLOGIES COMPARISON
No « universal » solution for all possible applications
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
ppbSensitivity
10secResponse time
Electrochemical
NDIR
NDIR
Electrochemical
MOS
MOS
Pellistor
Pellistor
Acoustic
Acoustic
ChemFET
ChemFET
Resonant
µGC
µGC
120sec
ppm
Chemiluminescence
Resonant
Chemiluminescence
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CHEMICAL GAS SENSORS: LIFETIME VS. APPLICATIONS
MOSFET is the technology with the most applications
Growing importance of MOS for consumer & transport.
IR still predominant in HVAC & industry
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
PID,
Chromatography,
Chemi-
luminescence
MOS
Lifetime2 years 5 years 10 years
Co
nsu
mer
HV
AC
Tra
nsp
ort
Med
ical
De
fen
se&
Ind
ust
ryE
nvir
on
men
t
IR
IR
Printed
Electro
chemical
Holographic
Catalytic Resonant
Printed
Electro
chemical
ChemFET
Acoustic
Volume
Electro chemical
Electro chemical
22
Electro chemical
WHO IS DEVELOPING WHAT?
Few companies are focusing on optical solutions
New comers from the IC are entering the game for
consumer (e.g., Bosch)
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
MOS
Lifetime2 years 5 years 10 years
Co
nsu
mer
HV
AC
Tra
nsp
ort
Med
ical
De
fen
se&
Ind
ust
ryE
nvir
on
men
t
IR
IR
Printed
Electro
chemical
Catalytic Resonant
PID,
Chromatography,
Chemi-
luminescence
Printed
Electro
chemical
ChemFET
Holographic
Acoustic
Volume
Electro chemical
23
2014 APPLICATIONS BREAKDOWN
Industrial + Transport is about 75% of total market.
Industrial application remains the main market segment in value contribution
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
Building17,8%
Medical2,5%
Consumer2,1%
Defense0,4%
Environment6,1%
Transport31,1%
Industrial40,0%
2014 Gas Sensor Market - Applications breakdown
2014 ToT ~ $564M
24
GASES TO BE MEASURED BY MARKET SEGMENT
80/20 approach for the year 2014
Which gases are important for which segment?
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
Consumer
CO2 + VOC
Others gases (CO, Aldehydes, BTEX….)
HVAC
CO2
Others gases (Aldehydes, VOC, BTEX…)
Transport
O2
Others gases (NOx…)
Defense & Industry
CO2 CO2 NOx
VOC Hydrocarbons alcohol
O2 H2 NH3
Toxic gases
Medical
CO2 & O2
Others gases (NO, biomarkers…)
20% 20% 20%
20%
80% 80%
80%
80%
Environment
O3, NOX, CO2
Others gases (CO2, BTEX…)
20%
80%
2014ToT
~ $12M2014ToT
~ $100M
2014 ToT
~ $175M
2014ToT
~ $228M2014ToT
~ $14M
2014ToT
~ $34M
26
CONCLUSIONS & OUTLOOK
The most important sensors for tomorrow’s smart cities are :
Environmental sensors: Humidity, Temperature, Light, and Gas sensors
but also Infra-red sensors and accelerometers
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
The gas sensors market is still a fragmented business with many players—TOP 3 “only” accounts for 24% of total market in 2014.
It attracts many new entrants, coming in a fabless/fablight model
These new entrants announced ramp-up in volume very soon (CCMOS, NXP, AlphaSzenszor, KWJ, AMS …)
Gas sensors cost & miniaturization is a driving force for consumer and industrial applications (portability).
It opens the way to new approaches: MEMS, optical integration, new approaches based on CNT.
Arrays of 3–4 sensors are an interesting option to detect many gases to compete with too complex e-noses
Trend is also to have multiple sensors (“environmental combos”) in a single package for cost/size issues.
The goal is to have an “environment-sensitive sensor module” with different sensors: 3 to 4 different gas sensors, pressure sensor, microphone, humidity and temperature.
This will be an “open” combo (at the opposite of inertial combos that require vacuum packaging for example).
27
RELATEDYOLE REPORTS
Some slides from this presentation were extracted from the following reports
Status of the MEMS industry 2016To be released in Q2 2016
Gas sensors Report 2016
Released in Feb 2016 – More info. here.
Sensors & Technologies for the Internet of Things:
Businesses and Market trends 2014 - 2024 Released in June 2014 – More info. here.
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
© 2016
Yole Développement
Market, technology and strategy consulting
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
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MEMS &
Sensors
LED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced Packaging
Batteries / Energy
Management
Power
Electronics
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
30
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• Technology analysis
• Strategy consulting
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• Patent analysis
www.yole.fr
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• Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk analysis
• Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis
• Cost Simulation Tool
www.i-Micronews.com/reports
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• Due diligence
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