melanoma skin cancer: will the drugs in the pipeline deliver?

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1 Ranjith Gopinathan, Industry Analyst Healthcare Practice May 25,2010 Melanoma Skin Cancer: Will the Drugs in the Pipeline Deliver?

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1

Ranjith Gopinathan, Industry Analyst

Healthcare Practice

May 25,2010

Melanoma Skin Cancer: Will the Drugs in the Pipeline Deliver?

2

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Focus Points

Skin Cancer : Melanoma– Key Facts1

Patient Forecasts2

Market Drivers and Restraints3

Current Drug Therapies for Melanoma4

5 Revenue Forecasts

6 Pipeline Analysis - Melanoma

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Skin Cancer : Melanoma– Key Facts

There are two main types of skin cancer:

•Melanoma

•Non-melanoma (Basal cell carcinoma, Squamous cell carcinoma)

Other types of Skin Cancer:

•Kaposi sarcoma (KS)

•Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC)

•Intraocular (Eye) Melanoma

•Dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans (DFSP)

•Sebaceous gland carcinoma (SGC)

• The incidence of melanoma at a global level is increasing faster than the other types of cancer, with an approximate

doubling of rates every 10 to 20 years in countries with Caucasian (light-skinned) populations.

• Melanoma is the second most common cancer in the age group of 15 to 34 years.

• Australia and New Zealand leads the world with world age-standardised rate between 30-40 cases per 100,000

population affected by skin cancer.

•Melanoma is curable when it is detected during the early stages. Surgery is common treatment for early stage melanoma.

•Melanoma is rare in non-white populations.

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Patient Forecasts

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Skin Cancer: Incidence and Mortality (World), 2006-2016

Note: The incidence post 2009 has

been calculated based on population statistics. The figures do not take into account changes in diagnosis or other external factors.

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Melanoma: Incidence and Mortality (United States, EU, Australia), 2006-2016

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Current Drug Therapies for Melanoma

Intron A (Interferon Alfa - 2B) Schering-PloughTreatment Area: Metastatic Melanoma

Approval Status: Approved in 1987 (US FDA)

Patent Expiry: 2002

Proleukin or Aldesleukin( IL-2, Interleukin 2) NovartisApproval Status: Approved in 1998 (US FDA)

Treatment Area: Metastatic melanoma

Chemotherapy

DTIC-Dome (Dacarbazine) Bayer

Approval Status: Approved in 1975 (US FDA)

Treatment Area: Metastatic melanoma

Generics: Available

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Skin Cancer Therapeutics Market: Market Drivers Ranked in Order of Impact (World), 2010-2016

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Skin Cancer Therapeutics Market: Market Restraints Ranked in Order of Impact (World), 2010-2016

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Revenue Forecasts

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Melanoma Therapeutics Market: Revenue Forecasts (World), 2006-2016

Note:• Future revenue potential of promising drug candidates which are currently in pipeline are also considered in the revenue forecasts.

• Many of the drugs for cancer are indicated for more than one therapeutic indication. Publicly available information tends to combine all indications when sales figures are reported. Therefore, estimations and primary research were used to arrive at the Melanoma therapeutics revenue forecasts. In addition, the revenue estimations have been cross-validated with the market participants.

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Melanoma Therapeutics Market: Revenue Forecasts (United States), 2006-2016

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Melanoma Therapeutics Market: Revenue Forecasts (European Union), 2006-2016

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Melanoma Therapeutics Market: Revenue Forecasts (Rest-of-World), 2006-2016

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Pipeline Analysis - Melanoma

Sheba Medical CenterAdoptive cell transfer (ACT) therapy

AntisomaAS1409

Bayer/ OnyxNexavar

NovartisGleevec (imatinib mesylate)

BioVex

Limited /Symbion Research

InternationalOncoVEX

Avax TechnologiesMvax

Abraxis BioScience/ AstraZenecaAbraxane

Genta / Sanofi-AventisGenasense (oblimersen)

Vical/ AnGesAllovectin-7

Roche/ PlexxikonPLX4032

Bristol-Myers Squibb/ MedarexIpilimumab

DevelopersDrug Name

Note: The above drugs pipeline list includes only, some of the most promising drugs in development and may not necessarily include all (promising) drugs in development for melanoma.

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