[mekong arcc] climate change impact and adaptation study for natural and agricultural systems
DESCRIPTION
Mekong ARCC presented in Hanoi, Vietnam at the 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change sponsored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam, the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation of the Netherlands, FAO, and The World Bank. The presentation, entitled "Climate Impacts in the Lower Mekong: Implications for the Private Sector," was given as part of the larger session on the Role of the Private Sector in Climate Smart Agriculture. Utilizing data collected for the Mekong ARCC's Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study, the presentation showed how changes in temperature and rainfall by 2030 will push the boundaries of crops climate tolerance and land suitability in the transboundary Sesan River basin for key agricultural inputs such as cassava, coffee, rice and rubber. These climate shifts will have significant impacts on the ability of natural resource and commodity dependant companies to meet production targets. The presentation broadly demonstrated that the projections the Mekong ARCC Climate Study is generating can be critical inputs for private sector strategic planning and future regional investments. Conference organizers intend to link the results from the workshop to a variety of international processes, in particular to the Rio +20 follow-up process and partnerships, the work of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS), as well as the ongoing climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC.TRANSCRIPT
Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for natural and agricultural systems
Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management
www.icem.com.au
September 2012 Hanoi 1a
Climate changes
Hydrological changes
Agricultural zones
Ecological zones
Species “zones”
Commercial crops
Subsistence crops
Traditional crops
Aqua-culture
Crop wild relatives
NTFPs Wild fish catch
Adaptation options
Wildlife Live- stock
Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods
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Agro-ecological systems and climate change vulnerability continuum
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Transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture
Intermediate Commercial
Land consolidation
Increased capital
intensity
Small holdings
Labourintensive
Low capital
intensity
Commercial farms and
plantations
Subsistence
Industrialization, rural-urban migration
Climate change shiftsRegular climate
1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability
2. Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and species) – change in (i) location and (ii) elevation
3. Seasonal shifts – change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping patterns
Extreme events
4. Extreme event shifts Micro – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands Macro – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall
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Geographic shift
Paddy rice and
commercial crops
Shift in zone of suitability for habitat and crops
Original extent of natural habitat
Remaining natural habitat
pockets
Subsistence crops and NTF collection 6
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Identifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas
• High exposure: significant climate change relative to base conditions exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions
• High sensitivity: limited temperature and moisture tolerance range degraded and/or under acute pressure severely restricted geographic range rare or threatened
• Low adaptive capacity Poor connectivity Low diversity and tolerances Homogenous systems 7
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Climate change hot spot - rainfall
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Climate change hot spot - Temperature
Industrial and commercial crops and climate change hotspots
Lowland rice
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upland rice
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rubber
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Coffee (coffea canephora)
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cassava
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Maize
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Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature
Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances
Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation
Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances
Trends in commercial crops with climate change
• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for rubber cultivation.
• Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica).
• Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT would have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas.
• Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher rainfall and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures
• Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher elevation may be required.
• Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation
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Rice cultivation and extreme flooding
• Extreme floods will be more common in rice based production systems in Lowland Cambodia and the Mekong Delta.
• Flood would have a larger impact where agriculture is intensified, with high yielding rice varieties less resilient to flood than traditional ones.
• Investment in intensive rice cultivation will become more risky
• Other commercial crops such as fruit and vegetables are less resilient to flood than rice.
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Rice
Rice cultivation and sea level rise
• A 30 cm rise by 2050 with increased flood extent, depth and duration will result in a loss of 193,000 ha of rice area in the Mekong Delta.
• Agriculture will be severely constrained by increased saline intrusion in the dry season and longer flood in the rainy season.
• The double and triple cropping system commonly used in the Mekong Delta might not be possible.
• Climate change will change the occurrence of plant disease and pests such as fungus and moulds, viruses, nematodes and a range of insects.
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Rice
Thank you
Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Managementwww.icem.com.au
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