meghan hoyer: "will the silver tsunami send medicare into the red?" 12.17.15

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Medicare and Aging America

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Medicare and Aging America

The aging of America

Seniors are sicker

"If they were just

as healthy, we'd be

in trouble, from

demographics

alone. But the

problem is, they're

not.”- Dana King, a family physician

and researcher at West

Virginia University

USA TODAY Methodology

Used multiple chronic condition prevalence and utilization/spending data, along with the overall CMS county-level geographic variation PUF

Took percentage of Medicare FFS chronic condition population over 65 and calculated the actual numbers of people affected, imputing values where data was suppressed

Multiplied those numbers with data on per-patient spending on chronic condition population, by county

Compared total spending on chronic condition population to the total spent on Medicare FFS in each county

Two-thirds of traditional

Medicare beneficiaries older

than 65 have multiple chronic

conditions, according to a USA

TODAY analysis of county-

level Medicare data. More than

4 million — about 15% — have

at least six long-term ailments.

Those sickest seniors account

for more than 41% of the $324

billion spent on traditional

Medicare.

Our Findings

Spending figures

Why is it so expensive?

Gerard Anderson, a professor at Johns Hopkins

University's Bloomberg School of Public Health,

says elderly individuals living with at least five

chronic conditions typically see 13 different

physicians and fill 50 prescriptions annually.

Not just a Medicare problem

Cigna looked at 200,000 customers in employer-sponsored plans between 2012 and 2014 and found that people with chronic conditions had much higher health care expenses.

Overall, chronic conditions contributed to nearly half of all medical expenses in 2013, the study said.

Medicare’s solution

CMS began offering a $40 monthly care management fee to primary-care practitioners who spend time coordinating complex-care cases, starting in January 2015.

"That might go a little ways, but it's probably not enough for most doctors. We almost have to

create a whole new profession here — the care coordinators — and then we have to figure out a

way to pay for it.”

- Gerard Anderson

Adding the Real

Used the data to find a place in the US where this is already a major issue

Finding people with multiple chronic conditions:

- Called local support organizations

- Checked online sites (meetups, Facebook groups)

Finding solutions:

- Checked in with local doctors and health care networks

- Local groups on aging

Meghan Hoyer

Data Journalist

The Associated Press

@meghanhoyer

[email protected]