Mega-Trends in Asia

Honolulu, Pacom, March 2012Charles E. MorrisonEast-West Center

Connecting Dots: Connecting Dots: Three Mega-DisastersThree Mega-Disasters

• December 2004: Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami: 230,000 dead

• October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake: 80,000 dead

• May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000 dead

Tectonic Plates in Southern Asia

INDIA PLATE

EURASIA PLATE

Chengdu

Aceh

Kashmir

Kathmandu

Change

Certainties/Uncertainties

Near Certainties:• The “rise” of Asia• Demographic changes• Pressures on resources

and the environment• New health challenges

Uncertainties:• Sustainable

development?• Social and political

evolution• International relations• Asia-Pacific role in

addressing global issues

Rise/Re-rise of Asia: Asia’s Share of World Gross Product Over 200+ Years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1820 1870 1913 1950 1970 1990 2010 2050

HDerived from “World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2006 A.D.,” by Angus Maddison; Asia includes South Asia

? ?

Growth of Tertiary Enrollment(Enrollment Ratios, 1985-2007)

0102030405060708090

100

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Ch

ina

Mal

aysi

a

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Th

aila

nd

Jap

an

Ko

rea

US

A

Source: World Bank

Education: Percent by Gender of TertiaryAge Population in Tertiary Institutions, 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

India Indonesia China Philippines Hong Kong Thailand Japan

Female Male

Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics (India and Hong Kong, 2007)

Intra-Regional Trade Integration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Source: Peter Petri, East-West Center

European Union – 25

NAFTA

Integrating Asian Economies

Demographic Tectonics

China’s Population in Comparative Perspective

Fertility DeclineTotal Fertility Rate: Babies per Female

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

East Asia Southeast Asia South & CentralAsia

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10.

Asia Population

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Year

Peo

ple

(m

illi

on

s) East Asia

S.E. Asia

South and CentralAsia

East-West Center, Future of Population

“Flight from Marriage:”(Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1990 2000

Indonesia S. KoreaThailand Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1990 2000

Jakarta Seoul

Hong Kong Bangkok

Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The “Flight from Marriage” in South-East and East Asia

Composition of Population(Japan)

Share of Young Adult Population in East Asia (Ages 15-24)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1960 1980 1985 1990 2000 2020 2040

Source: Graeme Hugo, University of Adelaide, based on United Nations 2003, excludes Western Asia

Growth of ElderlyPercent of Population Over Age 75

0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Singapore

S. Korea

China

Thailand

Vietnam

Indonesia

India

2000

2050

•

Source: East-West Center, Future of Population, 2002

East Asian Urban Agglomerations (Mega-East Asian Urban Agglomerations (Mega-cities) over 10 millioncities) over 10 million

1950

Tokyo, 11.3 million

1975

Tokyo, 26.3 millionOsaka, 14.0 millionSeoul-Inchon, 12.0 millionShanghai, 11.4 million

2008 estimates

Tokyo, 34.4 millionJakarta, 21.8 millionSeoul-Inchon, 20.0 millionManila, 19.6 millionOsaka, 17.3 millionShanghai, 14.5 millionBeijing, 12.8 millionGuangzhou, 11.8 millionShenzhen, 11.7 millionBangkok, 10.8 million

Wikipedia Sources, figures vary

Comparative GDP, 2008(PPP estimates)

• Tokyo, $1,479 billionTokyo, $1,479 billion• South Korea, $1,342 billion • Canada, $1,303 billion • Australia, $795 billion• Philippines, $320 billion• Hong Kong, $307 billionHong Kong, $307 billion• Seoul, $291 billionSeoul, $291 billion• Vietnam, $240 billion

Source: Cities, Pricewaterhousecoopers. Countries, IMF

Asia Pacific Disaster Map with Mega-cities

Source: Pacific Disaster Center

yo

Manila

Jakarta

Shanghai

Seoul

Beijing

Osaka

Tokyo

Kolkata

Resource Pressures

Regional Petroleum DeficitsMillions of Barrels per day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1973 2001 2020 est.

Europe

N. America

Asia-Pacific

Congressional Research Service

AUTOMOBILES (Millions)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Other AfricaSouth AfricaOther LABrazil

Middle EastIndiaOther AsiaChinaEastern Europe

Asian TERussiaKoreaJapanAustralia and NZOther OECD EuropeUKItalyGermanyFranceUSAMexicoCanada

International Energy Agency Projections

India

China

Other Asia

20502000

China’s, India’s, Share of WorldChina’s, India’s, Share of World. . .

• Population: 20.1, 18.0 percent

• Coal Reserves: 12.6, 10.2 percent

• Oil Reserves: 1.3, 0.5 percent

• Natural Gas Reserves: 1.3, 0.6 percent

Source: East-West Center, The Future of Energy in Asia-Pacific, 2007

Fresh Water (Per Capita)

EartSources: Earthlab, UN Environment Program

Northern China Has . . .

• 65 percent of China’s arable land• 47 percent of its population• 43 percent of GDP

And only . . .• 19 percent of China’s water resources

Source: Christine E. Boyle

Water Problem: A Chinese Perspective

China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006

Growth of Per Capita Meat Consumption – China, 1980-2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 2007

20 kg

54 kg

Source: Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 30 May 2008Note: For comparison, US per capita consumption about 122 kg

Health Tectonics

• Traditional Health Risks (down)• New infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS,

avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis (careful monitoring required)

• Chronic conditions and diseases associated with aging and life style changes (up)

Infectious Diseases: A Health Fault Line?

• “Spanish Flu” Pneumonia: 1919• Asian Flu: 1967• “Bird” Flu (Hong Kong): 1997• SARS: 2003• “Avian” Flu: 2004-

Poultry DensityPoultry Density

Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series

11-Year-Old Children’s FitnessJapan

Seconds to Run 50 Meters

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

1987 2006

Boys

Girls

Average Soft-Ball Throw (Meters)

15

20

25

30

35

1987 2006

Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007

Obesity in South Korea

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Children* Adults

1997**2007

Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey for 2007 as reported in ChosunIlbo, November 17, 2009. * Age 2 to 18. ** 1998 for adults.

Prevalence of Diabetes: 2000-2030Prevalence of Diabetes: 2000-2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Millions people

India China Other Asia

20002030

151% increase

104%

148% increase

Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. “Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030, Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May 2004. Average global increase 114%.

Suicide Rates 1

Suicide Rates 2: Case of Korea

The Uncertainties

• Sustainable development - Economic models - Resource impacts• Domestic evolution - Social disparities - Political dynamics• International relations• Global leadership

Gini Co-efficients

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007

Brazil

Mexico

USA

China

Japan

Brazil

Japan

Mexico China

USA

Sources: World Bank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

One of the big drivers of change… now China and One of the big drivers of change… now China and India are getting seriousIndia are getting serious

Global Carbon Emissions

Map from The Guardian Datablog

CO2 Emitters Per Capita (tons)

0

5

10

15

20

25

US Canada Australia Japan China India

Attitude Survey on Environment

Who Hurts the Environment the Most?China US % %

Americans 40 22Chinese 9 26Japanese 67 17Koreans 64 19Indonesians 11 42Germans 39 34

Pew Global Attitude Project, 2008

Governance Issues and Political Transitions

Political Systems in Evolution

• Recent coups or attempted coups in recent years: Philippines, Timor Leste, Fiji, Bangladesh

• New democracy: Indonesia• Maturing democracies: South Korea, Taiwan• Frequent leadership changes: Japan, Thailand, Nepal• Socialist countries in transition: China, Vietnam• Autocratic regimes: North Korea, Burma

Some Geo-Political Issues

• Last International War?• Ethno-nationalism (internal/international

dimensions) - Pacific/Atlantic difference• Power Transitions• “Afpak” • Future of Cross-Strait Relations• Future of the Korean Peninsula• Territorial Disputes• Regional Architecture, including alliance systems,

multilateral organizations (APEC, AES)

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