Mega Themes of the Future and their

Implications for the Indian Auto Industry

Sarwant Singh,

Managing Partner,

Frost & Sullivan

Definition : Transformative,

global forces that define the

future world with their far-

reaching impact on businesses,

societies, economics, cultures,

and personal lives

Urbanization—

City as a

Customer

Smart Is

the New

Green

Social

Trends

Bricks and

Clicks

Innovating to

Zero

New

Business

Models

Future

Infrastructure

Development

Health,

Wellness, and

Wellbeing

Future of

Energy

Future of

Mobility Connectivity

and

Convergence

Economic

Trends

Step 1:

Define and Identify

Step 2 –

Analyze impact of

Emerging Sub-trends

Step 3 –

Identify convergent themes

Define Mega Trends and identify sub-trends Analyze future scenarios, case examples, cross-

industry implications and future market potential

Understand how sub-trends will converge into

themes that will transform social, businesses and

personal lives in 2025 and 2030

Our Mega Trend Universe

Introduction to Mega Themes of the Future

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Theme Introduction Slide: Top 12 Transformation Themes

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Transhumanism Autonomous World Connected Living

Industry 5.0 Digital Reality as

Frontier Technology Heterogeneous Society

Data as 21st Century Oil Marketplace Everywhere ‘Uberization’ of Industries

Concept of ‘Zero’ World Rise of Platform Economy Zero Latency World

Theme Introduction Slide: Top 12 Transformation Themes (2/2)

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Connected Cars

5

FIVE Key Themes to Focus on...

5G AND HIGH

SPEED VEHICLE

CONNECTIVITY

1

(V2V/V2X)

MARKETPLACE

2

(on-route mobility

services)

FEATURES/

FUNCTIONS ON

DEMAND

3

(Customer

Personalization)

IOT PLATFORMS

IN VEHICLES

4

(V2V, V2X)

DATA IS

THE FUEL

5

(Monetization,

Cyber Security)

6

Spec

ific

atio

ns

Speed: 50 KBPS Speed: 250 KBPS Bandwidth: 20 MBPS

Bandwidth: 200 MBPS

Bandwidth: 1 GBPS

Analog Voice Calls

Digital Voice Calls Data

Video Streaming M2M

Dev

ice

G

en

erat

ion

1G 2G 3G 4G 5G

Serv

ice

s

Texting Internet Services

Texting

Internet Services

Texting

Video

Internet Services Texting

Video Smart Home

5G Rollout, Road Map and Vision 5G technology will enable zero latency applications such as Vehicle-to-Vehicle or Vehicle-to-Infrastructure

communications

Source: Frost & Sullivan

5G Use Cases—A Snapshot Mobility B2B Services with a defined Eco System key to 5G roll out success

8

1ms low latency

5G can support remote control and connected vehicle applications with extremely low latency and high reliability

100 Gbps peak throughput and 1Gbps user experience

5G can support ultra-HD video, AR/VR, and mobile cloud services

M2M Connectivity

5G can support massive connected devices

High-speed Mobility Over 500km/hour high mobility

Office Tens of Tbps/km2 traffic volume density

Highway End-to-end latency

Wide Area Coverage 100Mbps data rate user experience

Subways >6 persons/m2 super density

Dense Residence 1Gbps data rate user experience

Outdoor Gathering 1 million connections /Km2

Stadium 1 million connections /Km2

Big Cities High density areas, which may not be in big

cities

Marketplace Everywhere Facebook and WeChat started as social media and messaging platforms, now are evolving to become a

marketplace

Is this how it will manifest in Automotive?

9

Automotive Marketplace: Users to access multiple services based on their day to day needs and travel scenarios

Automotive Marketplace

Vehicular Features and

Applications

Retail Features Features on Demand

Telephony, Calendar, Music,

Connected Services etc.

Navigation, Traffic,

Other Mobility Modes

TPMS, Vehicle

health, Prognostic

Entertainment

and Media Food and beverages, clothing, etc.,

Geo-fenced retail and discounts

1 2

Autonomous

Features

Electric Vehicle

Features

Connected Service Features

3

10

Tentative Marketplace Services: Over 15 Bundles of Marketplace Services can be Developed by an OEM

In-Vehicle Marketplace

Vehicle Servicing

and Parts

Media (Movies,

Music, comics)

Navigation and

Location Based

Concierge (Hotel,

Reservations)

Reservations Deliveries &

Grocery

Food Delivery and

Pickup

Smart Home

(Surveillance etc.)

Retail Communication

(Video, Calling)

Feature on

Demand Upgrades

Games Parking

Charging

Tolling

11

Data Monetization On an Average 15-100 Parameters can be collected from Cars to build around 40 to 50 Use Cases

Ignition status Road Temperature

Windshield/wiper

information Latitude

DTC code

detection/clearing Speed

Fuel level Beginning/Ending

odometer reading

VIN Oil level Volumetric sensors ABS

Make/Model/ Sub-

model/year Average speed

Injector circuit

Malfunction Fuel consumption

Hard braking Throttle position

Tires pressure Accelerometer

Battery level RPM

Seatbelts Positional quality

Maximum speed Distance MIL status Steering wheel angle Event threshold

Car weight Longitude

Airbags Trip number

Timestamp Odometer

12

Data Monetization – Key Consumers and Use Cases Over 50 Use Cases Exist but only 10 to 15% currently being monetized

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Fleet Management

• GPS vehicle tracking

• Driver safety

• Operational efficiency

• Asset tracking & management

• Vehicle residual value management

• Value added services

Energy Automotive

Tier 1 to Tier 3 suppliers

Insurance Companies Retail Smart Cities

• Real time location-based promotion

• On-demand services

• Usage insights

• New Petrol station hotspots

• Electric vehicle(EV) infrastructure

optimization

• New vehicle features

• Design improvement- Performance

data from the actual users

• Data-feedback for R&D optimization

• Car battery downtime algorithm

• Usage based insurance(UBI)-

PAYD/PHYD

• Vehicle usage monitoring and scoring

• Tracking/theft protection service

• In-car offerings and targeted

advertising

• Data analytics for store location and

opening hours optimization

• Traffic flow management

• Urban planning

• Parking

• Automated road toll or taxation

• Road, infrastructure maintenance &

design improvement

• On demand deliveries

13

Automated Mobility

14

AD Services: 65% of Overall Autonomous Market in 2030 Top 12 new revenue streams for OEMs & Service Providers equating to over $200 Bn revenue in 2030

MO

BIL

ITY

SE

RIV

ICE

S

VE

HIC

LE

SE

RIV

ICE

S

PE

RIP

HE

RA

L

SE

RIV

ICE

S

LO

GIS

TIC

S

SE

RIV

ICE

S

HUB-HUB GOODS

DELIVERY

Build, Own, Operate,

Maintain [BOOM]

PARKING

SERVICES REFUSE & RECOVERY

CURBSIDE

DELIVERY

ON DEMAND

FEAUTURE UPDATES

ON DEMAND/ USER

INSURANCE

AUTONOMOUS

TAXIS

VEHICLE DATA

SERVICES

AUTONOMOUS

SHUTTLES

AUTONOMOUS

MONO PODS

PREDICTIVE/AUTO

MAINTANENCE

15

Future of Autonomous Driving Platforms CASE Convergence will lead to 3 Platforms as Building Blocks for AD Development

Electronic Platform

Vehicle Platform (Electric)

Ease of Use , User Delight 1

3D Approach for the OS 2

HMI and Infotainment Features 3

3D Car as the Menu 4

IoT Integration 5

Digital Platform

Diagnostics and Vehicle Health Monitoring

Electrical Power Systems

Backup Autonomous Driving System

Redundant Braking and Steering Systems

1

2

3

4

Redundancy ECUs 1

Domain Controllers &

Interfacing Units 2

Cyber Security Modules 3

16

Implications of Connected & Autonomous vehicles: Disruptive to

industries beyond automotive

Public transport

Parking garages

Trucking

Energy/fuel

Car repair and parts

Ride-hailing companies

eCommerce

Real estate

Insurance

Media and entertainment

Hotels

17

Future of F1 Racing is Autonomous

18

Is this the future of travel?

19

Shared: New Mobility Business Models

20

69 7 0 132 0

15,390

592 298 172

23,626

3,356

61,660

TraditionalCarsharing

P2P Carsharing CorporateCarsharing

Dynamic Shuttle MaaS Taxi Services

Market Potential From Key Mobility Cluster (In Mn), India: 2018,2030

2018 2030

Indian New Mobility Market Will Grow to $90bn market by 2030 Revenue from the taxi cluster alone expected to exceed $61 billion by 2030

21

50+ cities globally to implement DRT solutions by 2020 Increasing partnership between public authorities and private players to launch DRT service. Over 10 pilot

programs have been launched since 2017 and Shutl is the market leader in India

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Market Revenue

Fleet Size

2017

~ $ 3 billion

2030

~ $ 550 billion

2017

24k

2030

~ 5 million

• LA Metro and Via

• LA Metro and

Rideco

• Sacramento‘s

Regional Transit

agency - Micro

transit Experiment

• Metrolinx and Rideco

• Capital Metro launches

its new on demand Pickup

• The transit agency in

Nashville & TransLoc Inc

• Greater Paris‘ public

transport authority( PTA)

and Keolis - Fileo`

• Roads and Transport

Authority (RTA) - Bus

on Demand

• Transdev and

Transport for New

South Wales

• Land Transport

Authority(LTA)

and Via

• Seoul City –

On-demand Night

Owl Bus

• Transport for London (TfL) a

new ‗demand responsive‘ TfL

bus service

• MOIA (Volkswagen) on-demand electric

shuttle service in Hamburg

• SSB Flex On Demand Bus Service

22

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Poised to Streamline Urban Mobility Pilots witnessed in more than 15 cities; collaboration between key stake holders and Standardized data

sharing platforms to facilitate adoption

Source: Frost & Sullivan

MaaS Global

Moovel

Trafi

Conduent

UbiGo

Mozio

The West Coast of US is more concentrated

with MaaS operators with Moovel, Conduent

and Mozio present in Portland, LA and San

Fransisco respectively

Europe is the Hotbed of MaaS activity with

operations in countries including UK,

Germany, Finland, Sweden, Norway Spain,

Austria and Netherlands

23

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Kansas City

Doha

Las Vegas

Los Angeles

Sydney

Dubai

Washington DC

Chicago

Kuala Lumpur

Boston

Singapore

New York City

Kolkata

Chennai

Paris

Bengaluru

Moscow

Amsterdam

London

Helsinki

Seoul

Zurich

Vienna

Delhi

Mumbai

Tokyo

Hong Kong

Percent Passenger Trips, By Modes of Transport, Select Cities

Car Champions

>75% trips by car

Public Transport

Loyalists

<35% trips by car

Transitioning Cities

40-75% trips by car

Toward Sustainable Modes — Evolving Commuting Patterns across Cities Availability of multiple public transport options in India has lead to less than 35% of trips by Personal Car

Source: Frost & Sullivan

24

Greater than $20bn Between 15bn and 20bn

Between 10bn and 15bn Less than 10bn

Revenue

Deliveries

Number of

users

User

Penetration

China Revenue

(biggest market)

2018 2025

$82bn 199.4bn

6.5bn 12.5bn

841.9mn 1.5bn

11.6% 18.5%

$34bn $64.5bn

Global Online Food Delivery Market Spicing up Expected to grow from $83 Bn market to over $200 Bn by 2025, growing at 14% per year

25

Conclusion - Future consumers will think of the car as an IoT platform

for apps and services, providing integrated Mobility Services

CAR SHARING

& POOLING

INTRACITY

PUBLIC

TRANSPORT

INTERCITY

PUBLIC

TRANSPORT

PHYD

INSURANCE

TRAINS/

FLIGHTS

INTEGRATION

CAR RENTAL

& LEASING

MARKET-

PLACE

FREIGHT

MOBILITY

MICRO-

MOBILITY

SOLUTIONS

ENERGY

MANAGEMENT

DEMAND

RESPONSIVE

TRANSPORT

(TAXI, BRT)

DYNAMIC

PARKING

APPS,

JOURNEY

PLANNING, BIG

DATA

CONNECTED &

CONCIERGE

SERVICES

CONNECTED

LIVING

P

26

Electrification

27

EV Market Outlook 2019 - Global Over 2.8 million electric vehicles are likely to be sold by end of 2019 with China leading the market with over 55% market share.

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2018. Source: Frost & Sullivan

Africa and ME 0.5%

APAC 4.2%

China 55.0%

Europe 19.1%

Americas 21.2%

Electric Vehicle Outlook: Market Outlook, Global, 2019

BEV 67.9%

FCEV 0.2%

PHEV 31.9%

323 301 246

215 175 167 146

107 93 91

Tesla BYD RNM BJEV BMW SAIC Geely VWGroup

Hyundai Chery

1,464

501

100 80 70 69 62 61 40 34

China USA Norway Germany France UK Japan Canada Sweden Nethld.

Electric Vehicle Outlook: EV Sales Split by Top OEMs, 2018

Electric Vehicle Outlook: EV Sales Split by Country, Top 10, 2018

2,845,666 EVs sold in 2018

237 (157 BEV & 80 PHEV)

Models for Sale

~6,791671 Total EV Car Parc

>310,000 Charging Stations

28

29

Models OEMs Charging Stations Range Anxiety Battery cell

production

Challenge 2018 5 4 293 150 kms 0 GWh

Scenario 2025 75 19 AC: 1,58,000

DC: 5,400 >400 kms 30-40GWh

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan

-15

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b-1

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-15

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-16

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y-1

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-19

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9

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

e-Verito and Tigor/Tiago EV

models launched

respectively focused on

fleet

Better range, bigger car

and price slash lead to

increase in sales

Market scope limited due to

the availability of only

Mahindra e2o

Lack of Global

benchmarks leads to

slump

E-Passenger Car Outlook in India Lack of long range EVs and cost of acquisition has been the major restraint for EV uptake in India. Government needs to

encourage EV imports with tax benefits or aggressively accelerate ―make in India‖ to achieve milestones

30

Market Forecast to 2025 E-rickshaws, e-autos and e-2W are the most promising segments for electrification in India; expected to account for

over 4 million units by 2025

E2W E-Rickshaw

30,00,000

1,30,000

10,00,000

5,40,000

5,000

270,000

400

2025 2019

23X

2X

E-Auto E-Passenger car E-Bus

4,20,000

108X

3,600

105X 6,000 15X

Sales Volume growth rate

31

Perspective: Market Size of EV Component Industry in 2025 Electric Vehicle Value Chain in India is expected to reach $4.8 Billion in 2025

1/3rd

Of the EV motor market will

emerge from demand in EV

Buses in India in 2025 Electric motors $1.23 BILLION

Power electronics $1.47 BILLION

Batteries $1.86 BILLION

Charging stations $0.230 BILLION

E2W

E3W

Passenger Cars

E-Buses

KEY TRENDS

67% Will be the Passenger Car

segment‘s share in Battery

Market in 2025

61% Will be the 2W vehicle

segments' share in the Power

electronics market in 2025

15.6 Million KWh Will be the total demand for

Li-Ion battery pack in 2025

Conclusions-Future of Mobility to 2030

32

The Four Future Scenarios of Mobility

2018 - 2022

Multimodality

of Mobility

2026 - 2035

Technological

Singularity in

Mobility

2022 - 2026

Platformization

of Transport

2035 - 2050

Transcendental

Mobility

33

Learn More About ―Future of Mobility‖

Sarwant.singh@frost.com/ +971 50 193 0771

Join Our Mobility and

Mega Trend Groups On LinkedIn

Follow Sarwant’s series

on Mega Trends on Forbes.com http://www.forbes.com/sites/sarwantsingh/

Mega Trends: Strategic

Planning and Innovation Based

on Frost & Sullivan Research

Published Book:

New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives

By Sarwant Singh

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423

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