medium and long term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and …
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CETaqua- Laurent Pouget, Suzy Mc Ennis E-seminar, Water Change, October 4th 2012 Application to the Llobregat basinTRANSCRIPT
LIFE07 ENV/E/000845
Medium and long termwater resources modelling as a toolfor planning and Global Change adaptation.Application to the Llobregat basin.
E-seminar, Water Change, October 4th 2012
CETaqua- Laurent Pouget, Suzy Mc Ennis
CETaqua, Water Technology Center
Private foundation created for the purpose of developing R+D+i projects
70+ projects
6 research lines
We direct our research towards four main areas of activity:
1- Water & the city2- Water & agriculture3- Water & industry4- Water & the environment
The success of CETaqua is based oncollaborative research joining theefforts of private and public partners,
as well as, academia.
CETaqua: experts in construction, coordination and execution of R&D projects
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1AlternativeResources
2Impact ofthe global
change
3Efficient
infrastructuresmanagement
4Environmentand Health
5Energy and
Water
6Managementof the water
demand
CETaqua, Water Technology Center
Mitigation
• Life Cycle Analysis• Carbon Footprint
Adaptation
• Water Resources Management• Risk management (Hydroclimatic
Extremes)• Global change scenarios
L2: Impacts of Global change
Introduction
Context and issues at stake
Innovation and key results
Conclusions
CONTENT
Objective: Develop a methodology and a tool to study GlobalChange impacts on water resources and propose adaptationmeasuresFunding: LIFE+ (total project 1,2 M€)
Duration: 3 years 2009 - 2012
Participants:
Introduction
Collaborators: Project advisors:
Prof. E. Custodio
L. López
Partners:
Stakeholders involved:7 Spanish River Basin AgenciesSpanish Office of Climate ChangePrivate companies (Agbar, Iberdrola)Other regional institutions
5
Introduction
Context and issues at stake
Innovation and key results
Conclusions
CONTENT
6
ADAPTATIONSTRATEGIES
Context and issues at stake
Context and issues at stake
Context and issues at stake
NOW 30 years
€
€€€
Context and issues at stake
Creation of coherentGlobal Change
scenarios
€€€
Modelling possibleimpacts (business
as usual)
€
In 30 years:
Determination ofbest measures
(costs and benefitsenvironmental,
social andeconomic)
Context and issues at stake
Project structure:Develop the methodologyand a toolApply them to a case study:Llobregat River Basin
Introduction
Context and issues at stake
Innovation and key results
Conclusions
CONTENT
11
MANY scenarios
High resourcesrequirement: data andtime
Heavy datamanagement
Innovation and key results
Global Change Scenarios
12
population growth projectionsclimate impactsocio economic evolution
DEMAND
socio economic changesurban growthforest management
LAND USE
mean precipitationtemperatureseasonal variation
CLIMATE
X
X
Different methods used forscenario creation:
• Scientific projection models
• Expert hypothesis
Adapted simple methods
• Tailored to the issue andresources
• Full range of possible futures
• Adapted to the models
• Combined in a coherent way
Many scenarios global vision
Innovation and key results
Modelling of impactsSeparate parts of the water cycle
Hydrologicalmodel
Managementmodel
Qualitymodel
13
Water Change Modelling System Links models of the water cycle
Adapted to users calibratedmodels
Scenario data management
Visualisation of impacts
Manual link between them
Limitation of scenarios simulated
WCMS
Analysis of interconnectedprocesses of water system
Innovation and key results
Modelling of impactsEnsemble of results
2030 2050 2100
Past 30 years
15
Innovation and key results
Adaptation strategies
1. Is it really necessary to adapt? (Benefits env., soc, eco, > cost ofadaptation measures?)
2. Which adaptation strategy is the most efficient?
€
€€€
Innovation and key results
Adaptation strategiesImpacts of water deficit
Social cost
Economic cost
Industriamanufacturera
Comercio
Transporte &Comunicaciones
From this result, we could know thepotential benefit of avoiding water deficit
Innovation and key results
Adaptation strategiesCost of adaptation measure
From this result, we could know the cost ofavoiding water deficit
Desalination plant
Transfer from Rhone
Aquifer restoration
…
Innovation and key results
Adaptation strategiesDetermination of 3possible strategy tocope with futureconditions
Analysis of resultsPotential benefits ofadaptation > costs ofadapting?
Best adaptationstrategy
18
Alternatives
<<Annual cost ofadaptation
Cost of no-adaptationCost
Loss of 4% GDP ofCatalonia
Annualinvestment of0.1% GDP of
Catalonia
Introduction
Context and issues at stake
Innovation and key results
Conclusions
CONTENT
19
Creation of coherentGlobal Change
scenarios
Modelling possibleimpacts (business
as usual)
Determination ofbest measures
€€€€
In 30years:
Conclusion
Methodologyandguidelines
Methodologyand Toollinkingmodels(WCMS)
CBAmethodologylinked to modelsresults
Creation of coherent GlobalChange scenarios
Modelling possible impacts(business as usual) Determination of best measures
(economic, technical)
Water Change
Methodology andguidelines
Methodology and Toollinking models (WCMS)
CBA methodology linked tomodels results
ALTERNATIVES
COST
Objective: Develop a methodology and a tool to studyGlobal Change impacts on water resources and proposeadaptation measuresSolutions given:
Layman report
Paper published in Science of the Total Environment
Video: http://youtu.be/RY5qTnQh61M
Website: www.life-waterchange.eu
IWA Project Innovation Award winner:http://www.iwa-pia.org/
Contact [email protected]@cetaqua.com
Want more information?
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www.life-waterchange.eu
Thanks to the LIFE+ Financial instrument of the European Community
Thank you for
your attention!