mediterranean monitoring and forecasting centre...
TRANSCRIPT
Mercator-Ocean, CMCC, INGV, OGS, HCMR
P. Agostini (CMCC), E. Clementi (INGV), G. Coppini (CMCC), G. Cossarini (OGC), M. Drudi (INGV) A. Guarnieri
(INGV),G. Korres (HCMR) R. Lecci, S. Salon (OGS), C. Solidoro (CMCC) G. Turrisi (CMCC) and MED-MFC teams
Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (Med-MFC)
User-centered approach
Why? For whom?
Safety of navigation
Coastal protection and erosion Search and Rescue
Climate Change
Pollution emergencies
Protection&management of maring ecosystems
Military activities
Renewable energies Fishery&acquacolture
Off-shore activities
Tourism Harbours
Analysis of user needs User/stakeholder Requirement Med-currents operational system
innovation offered Products innovation offered
Engineering consulting Higher resolution offshore to be able to nest a few hundred meter resolution model at the coasts
1/24 of a degree model, 120 vertical levels
Rolling archive of hourly analyses for 1-2 years.
Civil Protection, Environmental Protection Agencies
Storm surge forecasting Inclusion of tidal forcing to the numerical model (available within NEMO), assimilation improvements, especially assimilation to altimetry and tide gauges
1/24 of a degree model which will allow the optimal resolution of tidal effects connected to Gibraltar
MSFD “Hydrograp.”, “Eutrophication”, etc descriptors: Eutrophication, mixing indicator, upwelling indices, climatological estimates
Number of rivers increased, aligned between Med-currents and Med-biogeochemistry and runoff forecast by a coupled hydrological model
Climatological estimates at different time scales and trends, bottom sea temperature, mixed layer depth
Safety of transport, ship routing, Search and Rescue Oil spill forecasting
Larger accuracy of surface currents including the Stokes drift
Coupling between wave and currents in terms of upper ocean mixing parameterization and Stokes drift
Inclusion of wave effects in mixing in Phase II
Fisheries management and assessment
Longer time series of re-analyses 60 years reanalysis Processed output
Offshore industry Estimate of risk from platforms spills, response to deep ocean blowouts emergencies
1/24 degree resolution, 120-150 vertical resolution resolving better bathymetry
Rolling archive of hourly analyses for 1-2 years. Uncertainty estimates
Research community Increased accuracy of analyses and re-analyses, eddy resolving products
1/24 model, upgrade of the data assimilation system to consider high frequency motion and observations
Uncertainty estimates
CMEMS MED-MFC tender Copernicus User Forum requests Transform model output in selected products
Add Mixed Layer Depth, Bottom Temperature 2D field, Surface air-sea Fluxes
2. Reanalyses
• 4 variables (Potential Temperature,
Salinity, Currents, SSH)
• Res: 1/16°̂, 72 vertical levels;
• Daily and Monthly means
Mediterranean Sea Physics
products: 1. Analyses and Forecast
• 6 variables (Potential Temperature,
Salinity, Currents, SSH, Stokes Drift
Velovity, Wavenumber)
• Res: 1/16°̂, 72 vertical levels;
• Daily and hourly fields
Copernicus Marine Environment Service
Mediterranean Monitoring and forecasting Centre (Med-MFC)
Mediterranean Waves • Hindcasts, 10-day Forecasts (V3) and Analyses (V4)
-Res: 1/24°, 24 directional and 32 frequency bins;
-Hourly fields;
-OI for Data Assimilation of Satellite wave observations
- Products: Zonal component of Stokes Drift at the
surface ; Meridional component of Stokes Drift at
the surface ; Full wave spectra at predefined grid
points; ignificant wave height; Significant height of
wind waves ; Significant height of total swell ; Mean
wave period ; Mean period of wind waves ; Mean
period of total swell ; Mean wave direction ; Mean
direction of wind waves ; Mean direction of total
swell; Mean wave number
• Wave hindcast for the period 2006 – 2016 (V3)
Med 1/24o: WAM Cycle 4.5.4 +
ECMWF analyses & forecast winds +
Med 1/24o currents
Atlantic 1/6o: WAM Cycle 4.5.4 +
ECMWF analyses & forecast winds
MED WAVES OBCs
Cal
– V
al syste
m
usin
g In
Sit
u a
nd
Sate
llit
e w
ave
ob
serv
ati
on
s
Mediterranean Sea
Biogeochemistry products
1) analysis and forecast:
•6 variables (chlorophyll, phytoplankton biomass,
N and P nutrients, primary production, oxygen)
•Res: 1/16°̂, daily and monthly dataset
Mediterranean Sea Biogeochemistry products
2) reanalysis:
•6 variables (chlorophyll, phytoplankton biomass,
N and P nutrients, primary production, oxygen)
•Res: 1/16°̂, daily and monthly dataset
Copernicus Marine MED-MFC now and in 3 years
time
High-level architecture for the offered Med-MFC PUs, DU and Backup
subsystems
http://marine.copernicus.eu … access to products
MED-CURRENTS ANALYSIS AND FORECAST PRODUCTION SYSTEM
DEVELOPMNET Evolution
Additional model improvements
emerged after Copernicus proposal
Modify ECMWF Land Sea Mask
(V2)
Move from NEMO v3.4 to NEMO
v3.6 (V3)
Move from a linear free surface
formulation with fixed volume to a
non-linear free surface formulation
with variable volume (V3)
Move from OBC to BDY (V3)
MED-CURRENTS ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
PRODUCTION SYSTEM FROM V1 TO V2
List of Products
ACTUAL VALIDATION CALIBRATION PROCEDURE
MED-Currents analysis and forecast product Quartely Validation Report
EAN (Estimate Accuracy Numbers)
Weekly Misfit RMS and BIAS
Daily comparison with independent data
SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS
Chlorophyll
concentrations
ASSIMILATION
3D-VAR scheme
M
ED
-CU
RR
EN
T
Ph
ys
ica
l fo
rcin
g
BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODEL
OGSTM-BFM (1/16, 72z)
CMEMS-Med-MFC Med-biogeochemistry component
PU=OGS + CINECA HPC-support
V1
AN&FC + REAN
Products = 3D daily
mean of:
chl, N, P, PrimProd,
phytobiomass, Doxy
MED WAVES V3: products
• significant wave height,
• mean wave direction,
• significant height of wind waves,
• mean direction of wind wave,
• significant height of total swell,
• mean direction of total swell,
• mean wave period,
• mean period of wind waves
• mean period of total swell
• Stokes Drift
• Wave spectra at predefined grid points.
Hourly products on a daily basis
(simulation + 10-day forecast) Multi-year hourly wave
hindcast (Feb 2006 – today)
• significant wave height,
• mean wave direction,
• significant height of wind waves,
• mean direction of wind wave,
• significant height of total swell,
• mean direction of total swell,
• mean wave period,
• mean period of wind waves
• mean period of total swell
• Stokes Drift
• Wave spectra at predefined grid points.
Products of the MED MFC wave forecasting system
Significant Wave Height
with Direction
Significant Height of wind
waves with Direction
Example : 31/12/2014 15:00 UTC
Significant Height of total
swell with Direction
• Situational Sea Awareness technology develops multi-channel services, customized for general public and special users
Ex. Of downstream services from Copernicus Med-MFC:
situational sea awareness services
Smartphone… Web Portal…
Tablet…
Currents,
waves and
winds
forecasted in
the area
www.sea-conditions.com
Examples of service evolution Phase I (2015-2018) main improvements proposal:
•The upgrade of the numerical ocean and biogeochemical models to a
higher resolution: 1/24° in the horizontal (from the starting 1/16°) and
120 vertical levels (from the starting 72), and the increase of the number of
rivers inflowing into the basin to 30 rivers (from current 7);
•The wave-current coupling system carried out to the 1/24° and
improvements;
•The climatological CMAP precipitations will be replaced by the ECMWF
ones;
•Wave production activities from a nested Atlantic (1/6 deg) –
Mediterranean (1/24 deg) including Cal/Val module;
•The improvement of cal/val activities as new data will be made available;
•The development of coastal assimilation for the biogeochemical system;
•The addition of new products in the catalogue (i.e. mixed layer depth,
bottom sea temperature, air-sea fluxes, sea surface height);
• The implementation of a carbonate system module and addition of
new biogeochemical products (i.e. ocean acidity and pCO2);
• The alignment of all PUs to the same horizontal and vertical
resolution;
Example of service evolution Phase I (2015-2018) main improvements proposal:
•The Improvements to data assimilation in terms of better representation of
spatial variability of background error statistics; the improvements to
specification of instrument-dependent observation errors for altimetry data
and the upgrade of TAPAS data;
Phase II (2018-2021) proposal for evolution:
•The addition of the tidal components, wave induced mixing and wave –
current interaction terms;
•The production of new reanalysis product at 1/24° horizontal resolution;
•The addition of boundary conditions (at the Gibraltar Strait and for air
deposition) coupled with Global and atmospheric models in the
biogeochemical model;
•The addition of bio-argo float data assimilation;
•The addition of hydrological forecast module for the Mediterranean Sea
catchment rivers for Physics and Biogeochemistry;
•The production of wave reanalysis multi-year time series;
• The release of a 5-day wave forecasting system forced with high
resolution Limited Area Model wind forecasts;
• Ensemble forecasting for both Waves and Physics;
Thanks for your attention