medicaid expansion-available gr estimates
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TechnicalReport
PreliminaryEstimatesof
GeneralRevenueAvailabilityin
StateHealthCareProgramsIfTexasExtendsMedicaidtoLow-IncomeAdults
Analysis by Billy Hamilton Consulting
Extending Medicaid to Low-Income Adults Will
Save Local Tax Dollars and Grow the Economy
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ThisreportprovidespreliminaryestimatesoftheamountofGeneralRevenue(GR)thatwouldbecomeavailablein
stateprogramsthatcurrentlyservetheeligiblepopulationunderaMedicaidexpansiontoadults.TheAffordable
CareAct(ACA)providesfederalfundingfortheextensionofMedicaidtoadultsaged18-64below138%FPL.
Conservativeestimatesindicatethatasmuchas$1.2billionormoreinunrestrictedGR fromagencybase
LegislativeAppropriationRequests(LARs)fortheseprogramswouldbecomeavailablefortheFY2014-15
biennium,assumingthattheserequestswereotherwiseappropriated.Thesefundsarewithincurrentspending
limitsandnotsubjecttothestatesspendingcap,effectivelyfreeingthemforappropriationtoanybudgetary
purpose.FortheGRavailabilitytomaterialize,however,thestatewouldneedtooptintotheexpansion,which
wouldrequireanestimated$300millioninGRforadministrativeexpensesduringtheFY2014-15biennium.
TheestimatesdemonstratethatthestatewillspendenoughGRonhealthcarefortheeligiblepopulationoverthe
nexttenyearstofundthestateshareoftheMedicaidadultexpansionto2023about$8.9billiongiven
comparablecaseloadandhealthcarecostincreasefactorsusedintheHealthandHumanServicesCommissions
adultexpansionprojections.TheestimateofGRavailabilitywithoutcaseloadandcostincreasefactorsis$7.3
billionsubstantiallyhigherthanthe$4billionthattheLegislativeBudgetBoardhasestimatedthestatewould
needtofundthestateshareoftheexpansionoverthenexttenyears.
StateGRisthesolemethodoffinanceforsomeoftheseprograms.Othersreceivefederalmatchingfunds,butat
lessfavorablematchingratesthantheMedicaidexpansion,whichwouldreceive100%matchfor2014-2016,
decliningto95%in2017,94%in2018,93%in2019and90%in2020andbeyond.Althoughthefederal
governmentreducesitsfundingforblockgrantsbytheamountthatastatereducesitsnon-federalspendingin
affectedprograms,thebeneficiarieswouldreceivethesameservicesunderMedicaidatthemorefavorablematch
rates.LegislatorsalsohavetheoptionofleavingtheGRintheprogramstoprovideforenhancedservicesorother
populations.
Thisreportdoesnotestimatetheeffectonfederalorotherfundingintheseprograms,orGRnetsavings,butonly
measurestheGRthatwouldbecomeavailableintheseprogramsiftheaffectedpopulationbecameeligiblefor
Medicaidunderanexpansion.Exceptionalitemandriderappropriationrequestsarealsonotincludedinthese
estimates,althoughthemethodologieswouldbethesametodeterminetheGRavailableintheseitemsandwouldsubstantiallyincreaseGRavailability.TheestimatesexcludeMedicaid-ineligiblepopulations,includingthosein
programsservingadultswithincomesgreaterthan138%FPLundertheassumptionthattheywouldcontinueto
receivebenefitsalthoughsomemaybeeligibleforsubsidizedinsuranceundertheACA.TheimpactofACAs
insurancesubsidiesontheseprogramswouldresultinadditionalunrestrictedGRavailabletotheextentthatthe
affectedpopulationenrolledininsurance.TheagencieshaveincludedsomeoftheseestimatedeffectsinSchedule
6.J.oftheirLegislativeAppropriationsRequests.
TheseestimatesarepreliminaryonlyandmayberevisedandrefinedinthefuturebyBillyHamiltonConsultingor
stateagenciesthathaveaccesstomoredetaileddataandinformationthroughthestatesautomatedbudgeting
system,internalexecutivemanagementreports,andbudgetandprogramanalyststhathaveintimateknowledge
oftheseprogramsandthepoliciesthataffectthem.
Downloadone-pagersontheexpansionimpactbylegislativedistrictat
www.texasimpact.org/Local-Taxpayers-Win-With-Medicaid
Downloadthefullreportatwww.mhm.org
Downloadtheexecutivesummaryatwww.texasimpact.org
Formoreinformationaboutthereport,Smart,AffordableandFaircallTexas
Impactat512/[email protected]
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Preliminary Estimates of General Revenue Availability
In State Health Care Programs
If
Texas Extends Medicaid to Low-Income Adults
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Appendix
Worksheets
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