medicaid expansion-available gr estimates

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  • 7/29/2019 Medicaid Expansion-Available GR Estimates

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    TechnicalReport

    PreliminaryEstimatesof

    GeneralRevenueAvailabilityin

    StateHealthCareProgramsIfTexasExtendsMedicaidtoLow-IncomeAdults

    Analysis by Billy Hamilton Consulting

    Extending Medicaid to Low-Income Adults Will

    Save Local Tax Dollars and Grow the Economy

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    ThisreportprovidespreliminaryestimatesoftheamountofGeneralRevenue(GR)thatwouldbecomeavailablein

    stateprogramsthatcurrentlyservetheeligiblepopulationunderaMedicaidexpansiontoadults.TheAffordable

    CareAct(ACA)providesfederalfundingfortheextensionofMedicaidtoadultsaged18-64below138%FPL.

    Conservativeestimatesindicatethatasmuchas$1.2billionormoreinunrestrictedGR fromagencybase

    LegislativeAppropriationRequests(LARs)fortheseprogramswouldbecomeavailablefortheFY2014-15

    biennium,assumingthattheserequestswereotherwiseappropriated.Thesefundsarewithincurrentspending

    limitsandnotsubjecttothestatesspendingcap,effectivelyfreeingthemforappropriationtoanybudgetary

    purpose.FortheGRavailabilitytomaterialize,however,thestatewouldneedtooptintotheexpansion,which

    wouldrequireanestimated$300millioninGRforadministrativeexpensesduringtheFY2014-15biennium.

    TheestimatesdemonstratethatthestatewillspendenoughGRonhealthcarefortheeligiblepopulationoverthe

    nexttenyearstofundthestateshareoftheMedicaidadultexpansionto2023about$8.9billiongiven

    comparablecaseloadandhealthcarecostincreasefactorsusedintheHealthandHumanServicesCommissions

    adultexpansionprojections.TheestimateofGRavailabilitywithoutcaseloadandcostincreasefactorsis$7.3

    billionsubstantiallyhigherthanthe$4billionthattheLegislativeBudgetBoardhasestimatedthestatewould

    needtofundthestateshareoftheexpansionoverthenexttenyears.

    StateGRisthesolemethodoffinanceforsomeoftheseprograms.Othersreceivefederalmatchingfunds,butat

    lessfavorablematchingratesthantheMedicaidexpansion,whichwouldreceive100%matchfor2014-2016,

    decliningto95%in2017,94%in2018,93%in2019and90%in2020andbeyond.Althoughthefederal

    governmentreducesitsfundingforblockgrantsbytheamountthatastatereducesitsnon-federalspendingin

    affectedprograms,thebeneficiarieswouldreceivethesameservicesunderMedicaidatthemorefavorablematch

    rates.LegislatorsalsohavetheoptionofleavingtheGRintheprogramstoprovideforenhancedservicesorother

    populations.

    Thisreportdoesnotestimatetheeffectonfederalorotherfundingintheseprograms,orGRnetsavings,butonly

    measurestheGRthatwouldbecomeavailableintheseprogramsiftheaffectedpopulationbecameeligiblefor

    Medicaidunderanexpansion.Exceptionalitemandriderappropriationrequestsarealsonotincludedinthese

    estimates,althoughthemethodologieswouldbethesametodeterminetheGRavailableintheseitemsandwouldsubstantiallyincreaseGRavailability.TheestimatesexcludeMedicaid-ineligiblepopulations,includingthosein

    programsservingadultswithincomesgreaterthan138%FPLundertheassumptionthattheywouldcontinueto

    receivebenefitsalthoughsomemaybeeligibleforsubsidizedinsuranceundertheACA.TheimpactofACAs

    insurancesubsidiesontheseprogramswouldresultinadditionalunrestrictedGRavailabletotheextentthatthe

    affectedpopulationenrolledininsurance.TheagencieshaveincludedsomeoftheseestimatedeffectsinSchedule

    6.J.oftheirLegislativeAppropriationsRequests.

    TheseestimatesarepreliminaryonlyandmayberevisedandrefinedinthefuturebyBillyHamiltonConsultingor

    stateagenciesthathaveaccesstomoredetaileddataandinformationthroughthestatesautomatedbudgeting

    system,internalexecutivemanagementreports,andbudgetandprogramanalyststhathaveintimateknowledge

    oftheseprogramsandthepoliciesthataffectthem.

    Downloadone-pagersontheexpansionimpactbylegislativedistrictat

    www.texasimpact.org/Local-Taxpayers-Win-With-Medicaid

    Downloadthefullreportatwww.mhm.org

    Downloadtheexecutivesummaryatwww.texasimpact.org

    Formoreinformationaboutthereport,Smart,AffordableandFaircallTexas

    Impactat512/[email protected]

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    Preliminary Estimates of General Revenue Availability

    In State Health Care Programs

    If

    Texas Extends Medicaid to Low-Income Adults

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    Appendix

    Worksheets

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