The Occurrence of Mediation

The Occurrence of Mediation Levent Tansu Turkmenoglu29.12.2014IR 503-Theories of IR

OutlineThe relevance of international peace mediation Defining mediation

The debate on the occurrence of mediation:Why and when would disputants want to engage in a mediation process?

Calling the stalemate concept into question

Conclusion

References2

The Relevance of International Peace Mediation

In 2004, the UN Secretary Generals High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change recognized the positive contribution of mediation.1

It takes note that the demand for the good offices of the UN and mediation has skyrocketed. With a view to strengthening its mediation capacity, the UN established the Mediation Support Unit of its Department of Political Affairs.2 1 United Nations, A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility.2 See United Nations Fact Sheet: Strengthening the Department of Political Affairs Strengthening the UNs capacity to step in- to resolve conflicts earlier rather than later is among the smartest investments we can make, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon address to the Fifth Committee on the 2008-2009 Budget, 25 October 2007, see .

The Relevance of International Peace Mediation Four years later, on the 23rd of September 2008, the Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon requested that the Security Council and UN member states invest further in mediation activities applied in different conflict scenarios and contexts, and insisted on the need to coordinate and harmonize them.3

3 Intervention of Ban Ki-moon, United Nations, Security Council, 5979th meeting, Tuesday, 23 September 2008, New York.The Relevance of International Peace Mediation The 2009 Report of the Secretary General on Enhancing Mediation and Its Support Activities acknowledges that ... the practice of mediation has received remarkably little attention or support. Instead, our efforts have been concentrated on the more costly tasks of dealing with the shattered remnants of devastated lives, communities and institutions of state, while the daunting challenge of reconstruction has absorbed resources that could have gone into early conflict resolution.4

4 Report of the Secretary General on Enhancing Mediation and Its Support Activities (S/2009/189).The Relevance of International Peace Mediation The same report recognizes mediation as a professional tool for conflict resolution, emphasizes that the practice of mediation requires specific skill sets and expertise, and signals to the international community that acquiring and applying these techniques require substantial efforts, both in financial terms but also in terms of systematized learning as to its practice.

Initiated by Finland and Turkey, which have created a UN Group of Friends of Mediation, a UN General Assembly Conclusion in June 2011 stressed the continued need for resources, capacity building, and the professional practice of mediation. 5

5 United Nations: General Assembly 65th session, Strengthening the role of mediation in the peaceful settlement of disputes and conflict prevention and resolution, A/65/L79.Defining Mediation

The Concept of Mediation:

Although mediation can be practiced in many different ways, the meaning of the term mediation is fairly uncontroversial.

By definition, it is a process of conflict management where disputants seek the assistance of, or accept an offer of help from, an individual, group, state, or organization to settle their conflict or resolve their differences without resorting to physical force or invoking the authority of the law.6

6Bercovitch, Jacob, J. Theodore Anagnoson, and Donnette L. Wille. (1991) Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends in the Study of Successful Mediation in International Relations. Journal of Peace Research 28 (1): 717.

LitigationNegotiationArbitrationMediationDispute Resolution - SpectrumDefining Mediation

8Defining Mediation

But when does it take place, and when does it not?

Defining MediationNot only may a deeper understanding ofhow disputants get to the table be useful knowledge for practitioners (Greig and Diehl 2006)7,

but also if we are to correctly estimate the efficiency of mediation, its usefulness and ability to save lives and spare suffering, it is essential that we know which conflicts are mediated and which are not (Beardsley and Greig 2009)87Greig, J. Michael , and Paul F. Diehl. (2006) Softening Up: Making Conflicts More Amenable to Diplomacy. International Interactions 32 (4): 355384.8Beardsley ,Kyle C., and J. Michael Greig. (2009) Disaggregating the Incentives of Conflict Management: An Introduction. International Interactions35 (3): 243248.

The Debate on the Occurrence of MediationDisputant Incentives & Rational Choice Theory

(The Occurrence of Mediation)The Debate on the Occurrence of MediationWhat determines whether or not the disputants will seek assistance from a third party to settle their differences? Or, for that matter, accept an offering of mediation in the case where the intermediary takes the initiative?

And in what situations would a third party offer their services for conflict management or agree to help out, should the disputants request its presence?

The Debate on the Occurrence of Mediation Rational Choice Theory in the making of disputant incentives:

Majority of students seems to lean toward interest-based rational choice theory to explain disputant motives in the occurrence of mediation. (see Figure 1)

If one believes that interest-based rationalistic calculations always are at the heart of political interaction, then interestsnot favorable circumstancesshould be the primary suspects.

While most studies on the peaceful settlement of disputes focus on the substance of the negotiations, the timing of the negations is also key. Parties resolve their conflict only when they are ready to do so -- when alternative, usually unilateral, means of achieving a satisfactory result are blocked and the parties feel that they are in an uncomfortable and costly predicament. At that "ripe" moment, they seek or are amenable to proposals that offer "a way out. 9

9Zartman, I. William (2003). Ripeness.The Debate on the Occurrence of MediationRational Choice Theory in the making of disputant incentives (contd):

The concept of a ripe moment centers on the parties' perception of a mutually hurting stalemate (MHS) - a situation in which neither side can win, yet continuing the conflict will be very harmful to each (although not necessarily in equal degree nor for the same reasons). Also contributing to "ripeness" is an impending, past, or recently avoided catastrophe.10

So, conflict becomes ripe for resolution when the parties realize that the status quo - no negotiation- is a lose-losesituation (because they cannot win), not a zero-sum (win-lose) situation. Thus to avoid the mutual loss, they must consider negotiation.

According to Touval and Zartman (1985), when disputants are in a period of intense conflict, they are particularly hostile and less willing to direct talks between one another. Mediation is thus favored over bilateral negotiations, perhaps because concessions may be politically particularly sensitive at such a time, and politicians who would like to see a peaceful settlement may feel the need of a face saver between them and their domestic populations. 11

10 11Touval,Saadia,and I. William Zartman. (1985) Introduction: Mediation in Theory. In International Mediation in Theory and Practice, edited by Saadia Touval and I. William Zartman. London: Westview Press.

The Debate on the Occurrence of Mediation

The Debate on the Occurrence of MediationRational Choice Theory in the making of disputant incentives (contd):Greig (2005) argues that [b]y studying all enduring rivalries from 1946 to 1992 over time, he finds that a conflict is five and a half times as likely to experience mediation in a month during which a militarized dispute is ongoing, as compared to a month in which there is no such dispute.12

Greig and Diehl (2006),likewise, find that an ongoing militarized dispute makes disputants two and a half times more likely to participate in mediation. A full-scale war has an even stronger effect, making mediation seven times as likely.1312Greig, J. Michael. (2005) Stepping into the Fray: When Do Mediators Mediate? American Journal of Political Science 49 (2): 249266.13Greig, J. Michael , and Paul F. Diehl. (2006) Softening Up: Making Conflicts More Amenable to Diplomacy. International Interactions 32 (4): 355384.

Calling the Stalemate Concept into QuestionCritique of Rational Choice Theory in the making of disputant incentives:

Although mediation is more likely in periods of high conflict costs, it is rarely initiated by the disputants (just as rising costs do not have a significant effect on the occurrence of bilateral negotiations).

Instead, by digging deeper, Greig and Diehl (2006) find that what makes mediation incidence more probable in such periods is initiatives by third parties.

This, then, seems to suggest that costs, as experienced by the rivaling parties, do not produce mediation.14

14Hellman, Johan. (2012) International Studies Review, Vo. 14, pp. 591603

Calling the Stalemate Concept into QuestionCritique of Rational Choice Theory in the making of disputant incentives (contd):

For instance, Touval (2003) takes note of this when he discusses the European intervention in the war in Bosnia (in the 1990s): The timing of the European mediators intervention was determined not by their estimation of the ripeness of the conflict, but by the mediators own domestic and foreign policy concerns.

Similarly, he also claims that US mediation between Egypt and Israel had the primary objective of diminishing Soviet presence and influence in the region and was thus not initiated because of favorable conditions. (Touval, 2003)

Calling the Stalemate Concept into QuestionCritique of Rational Choice Theory in the making of disputant incentives (contd):

Greig and Diehl (2006) make another interesting discovery, which they label the promise of diplomacy. Disputes that earlier have experienced negotiation or mediation, either successful or unsuccessful, are more likely to be mediated again.

Moreover, Beardsley claims mediation is also more probable in disputes where the argument concerns more than one issue, which should positively influence the potential for concessions through the possibility of trade-offs (2010).

ConclusionKeeping these in mind;

In general, studies in the international mediation research rely heavily on rational choice theory, and thus, the teachings of realism (or are at the very least clearly influenced by its emphasis on Realpolitik)

In a way, it may be viewed as natural that a research program that specializes in conflict should be heavily influenced by realism.

Conflict, and the constant presence of the threat of it, is, after all, realisms domain par excellence. ConclusionHowever;A widening of the horizons and experimenting with different theoretical foundations may benefit the mediation research program and promote a deeper understanding of how and when mediation occurs.

Both liberalism, which is already present(rarely), and constructivism may very well be able to provide new insights.

It is, for instance, widely acknowledged that third parties may alter the costs of conflict and benefits of settlement. (Touval and Zartman 1985)ConclusionTherefore;

Admittedly, sometimes they probably do so in ways that can rightfully be incorporated into models based on realist theory. (for instance, by threats of military retributions and sanctions)

But, sometimes, external factors such as expectations (by other states) and conventional norms( e.g. culture) may just as well be the motivation behind a particular choice of action, factors that belong in a constructivist approach. (Finnemore and Sikkink 1998; March and Olsen 1998)

Widespread norms are a part of the globalized world we live in today, and there is ample evidence that they do in fact affect the way in which states interact (Mitchell 2002).

It seems plausible that solving differences in a non-violent manner is such a norm, and it seems likely that it is such a strong one that it could influence the decision making of disputants in a conflict, considering the recent incline in mediation efforts by International Organizations and NGOs.ReferencesBeardsley ,Kyle C., and J. Michael Greg. (2009) Disaggregating the Incentives of Conflict Management: An Introduction. International Interactions35 (3): 243248.Bercovitch, Jacob, J. Theodore Anagnoson, and Donnette L. Wille. (1991) Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends in the Study of Successful Mediation in International Relations. Journal of Peace Research 28 (1): 717.Greig, J. Michael. (2005) Stepping into the Fray: When Do Mediators Mediate? American Journal of Political Science 49 (2): 249266.Greig, J. Michael , and Paul F. Diehl. (2006) Softening Up: Making Conflicts More Amenable to Diplomacy. International Interactions 32 (4): 355384.Hellman, Johan. (2012) International Studies Review, Vo. 14, pp. 591603.Touval,Saadia,and I. William Zartman. (1985) Introduction: Mediation in Theory. In International Mediation in Theory and Practice, edited by Saadia Touval and I. William Zartman. London: Westview Press.Zartman, I. William (2003). Ripeness.