measuring carbon dioxide emissions embodied in consumption paris, november 2010 contact:...
TRANSCRIPT
Measuring Carbon Dioxide Measuring Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in Emissions Embodied in
ConsumptionConsumption
Paris, November Paris, November 20102010
Contact: [email protected]
Overview
• Policy drivers: – Production versus Consumption (Supplementary index).
– Equity
Background – Where are we now?
• 40% increase in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2007.
• ¼ from OECD economies, but over half from China alone; whose emissions trebled over the period – partly in response to domestic demand but also for OECD consumers. – China’s share of US and Japanese imported goods up from 6.5
and 11% in 1995 to 15.5 and 21% in 2005. Much of this in products with high CO2 emissions.
• OECD’s trade balance fallen from broad balance in 1995 to $1.1 trillion deficit in 2005.
Methodology
• Objective – to allocate emissions (embodied) to final domestic consumption.
• Starting point: 3 global IO tables for 1995, 2000 and 2005 for 47 countries. – 95% of global GDP and 85% of emissions.
• And CO2 emissions by sector from the IEA
+32 OECD countries + 15 non-members(G20, BRIICS, ASEAN6,NAFTA,
accession countries, other EU members)
History 1995ed: 10 countries (1970-1990) 2002ed: 24 countries for mid90s 2006ed & current: mid90s-2005
Format Inter-industry transactions (48 sectors)
ISIC 3 harmonized classification Import &domestic inputs are separated
Database and sample indicators are available at OECD.Stat
www.oecd.org/sti/inputoutput
Global population coverage (64%,2005)
OECD Input-Output Database
CountryOriginal Source data
Actual tables used in the global OECD IO table
CountryOriginal Source data
Actual tables used in the global OECD IO table
mid90searly 2000s
mid 2000s
mid90searly 2000s
mid 2000s
mid90searly 2000s
mid 2000s
mid90searly 2000s
mid 2000s
Australia 1994/95 2001/02 2004/05 1994 2001 2004 Poland 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Austria 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Portugal 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Belgium1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Slovak Republic
1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Canada 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Slovenia 1996 2000 2005 1996 2000 2005
Czech Republic
1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Spain 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Chile 1996 na 2003 1996 2000 2005 Sweden 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Denmark 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Switzerland na 2001 na 1995 2000 2005
Estonia 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Turkey 1996 1998 2002 1996 2000 2005
Finland1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
United Kingdom
1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
France 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 United States 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Germany 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Argentina 1997 na na 1995 2000 2005
Greece 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Brazil 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Hungary 1998 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 China 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Ireland 1998 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Chinese Taipei 1996 2001 2006 1996 2001 2006
Israel 1995 na 2004 1995 2000 2004 India 1993/94 1998/99 2006/07 1993/94 1998/99 2006/07
Italy 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Indonesia 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Japan 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Malaysia 1995 2000 na 1995 2000 2005
Korea 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Philippines 1995 2000 na 1995 2000 2005
Luxembourg 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Romania na 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Mexico na na 2003 1995 2000 2005 Russia 1995 2000 na 1995 2000 2005
Netherlands 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Singapore 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
New Zealand 1995/96 2002/03 na 1995/96 2000 2005 South Africa 1993 2000 2005 1993 2000 2005
Norway 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Thailand 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Viet Nam na 2000 na 1995 2000 2005
Methodology• Very simple approach:
DAIE 1
A1 M21 M31 M41 M51
M12 A2 M32 M42 M52
M13 M23 A3 M43 M53
M14 M24 M34 A4 M54
M15 M25 M35 M45 A5
Imported emissions embodied in final consumption-% of total consumption
CO2 emissions from domestic consumption and production – Mt
US per capita emissions from production 5 *
China’s in 2005 but 6 * higher with consumption
Trade balance in CO2 emissions (domestic production minus domestic consumption)
percentage of global emissions 1995 - 2005
Perspective: Higher than total emissions in Germany and growth in deficit between 1995
and 2005 equal to another UK
CO2 emissions: tonnes per capita - domestic production and domestic consumption
No change in per capita emissions in production between 2000 and 2005 but
2% increase in emissions embodied
in consumption
Difference in consumption and
Production = 30% of per
capita emissions in R.O.W
Not just a question of Trade surplus/deficits either:Trade in goods balances and CO2 balances (2005)
China: Emissions from China embodied in imports: % of total consumption
Per capita Changes in Domestic Consumption of CO2 emissions broken down by emission source between 1995 and 2005
Emissions embodied in HHFC: Mt per capita, 2005
CO2 emissions in Households per unit of Household disposable constant 2000 PPPs, Mt CO2,
On-going work• Emissions from unallocated autoproducers
• Emissions from the rest of the world
• Conceptual challenges relating to emissions embodied in investment and inventories. Focus on final consumption (households and government).
• Projection into recent years and back to 1990.