Measuring (and Managing) the Costs of

Student AttritionNate Johnson

Postsecondary Analytics423 East Virginia StreetTallahassee, Florida 32301

State Policy Workshop: State Higher Education

Executive Officers

Chicago, August 8, 2012www.postsecondaryanalytics.com @NateJohnsonFL

About the Cost of Attrition Project

• Initiative of the Delta Project on Postsecondary Education Costs, Productivity, & Accountability

• Work undertaken by Jane Wellman, Donna Desrochers, Colleen Lenihan, Patricia Steele, Nate Johnson

• Funded through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

• Research and consultations took place 2010-2011

• Delta Project now housed at the American Institutes for Research

Questions We Sought to Answer

• What is attrition?

• How should it be defined for public policy?

• How should we talk about it?

• How much does higher education spend on students who do not finish?

• What are the most helpful ways to disaggregate attrition costs?

• How can better understanding of attrition and costs improve policy and practice?

Defining Attrition

• Alternative focus to graduation, but not mirror image

• Intentionally conservative definition of “attrition”

Six-Year Same-Institution Attrition Rates = 61%

Only 39% of new postsecondary students complete within six years at the same institution where they started

More Conservative Definition of Attrition = 35%

Completed at first institution attended: 38.8%

Did not complete anywhere, no longer enrolled: 35.5%

Completed at another institution: 10.6%

Still enrolled: 15%

Students who, within six years…

Defining Costs

• Beginning Postsecondary Students 2004/09 restricted use data

• Linked each student to institution-level IPEDS data

• Calculated expenditures per FT student (Delta Project “Education and Related Expenditures”)

• Calculated cumulative cost for each student

Costs for Students With and Without Degrees

Left a

fter

<1

yr

Certifi

cate

Left 1

-2 y

ears

Left 2

-3 y

ears

Assoc

iate

's

Left 3

-4 y

ears

Left 4

+ y

ears

Bache

lor's

$8,800 $16,100 $17,400

$29,400 $33,900

$42,000 $47,100

$53,800

Mean Cumulative E&R Expenditures

Proportions of Outcomes and Costs Differ

Certifica

te

Assoc

iate

's

Bache

lor's

No

degr

ee

Still

enr

olle

d

9% 9%

31%35%

15%

5%10%

51%

19%15%

% of Outcomes % of Costs

Outcomes and Cumulative Education and Related Costs for BPS 2004/09 Students

Magnitude of Attrition Cost Varies by Sector

Public 4-Year Public 2-Year Private 4-Year

73%

43%

83%

13%

33%

9%14%

24%

8%

Proportion of All Costs, by First Sector

Still enrolled

No Degree/Attrition

Degree or Credential

One year or less

1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4+ years$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%43.8%

29.4%

17.8%

7.3%

1.8%

$8,829.9

$17,426.8

$29,417.4

$42,036.4

$47,122.2

Percent of All Attrition

Time enrolled before leaving

Pe

rce

nt

of

All A

ttri

tio

n

Attrition Magnitude and Costs

Later/Early Leavers Cite Different Reasons

Policy and Practice Implications for States

• More reason to prioritize “near-completers”

• Suggests different types of interventions and investments:

– Broad-based efforts for early intervention, where volume is so high

– More focused efforts on later-stage at-risk students, where cost per student is high

• Potential to further disaggregate costs and causes, model different types of high- and low-cost strategies to reduce attrition

• Other ideas? How could this type of analysis help?

Financial Aid Investments and Attrition

• Positive but small returns to aid investments

• Where is biggest potential impact on completion rates?

• Middle terms/years focus?

• Risk profiles more accurate: ability to predict diagnose and intervene

• Potentially greater ROI

• More analysis & experimentation needed

Some Studies Show Larger Impacts of Aid Programs After First Semester (Example: MDRC Performance-Based Scholarships)

Key Recommendation: Look at Current Attrition

• Do not wait six years to calculate a graduation rate

• Look every year at year-to-year attrition and retention patterns

• Who is dropping out between first- and second-year?

• Second and third? Third and fourth?

• What do you know about these students?

• Academic status, loan burden, institutions, regional employment trends, UI records…

Projecting Attrition (and Retention and Graduation)

• Cohort studies not always practical or useful

• Length of time needed poses problems

– Data availability & quality

– Measuring phenomena long ago

• Alternative: estimate attrition using enrollment projection tools

• Markov chain method uses most recent year-to-year retention/dropout rates

• Only two-three years of student data needed

STEPS TO PROJECT LONG-TERM ATTRITION FOR CURRENTLY ENROLLED STUDENTSEXAMPLE BASELINE DATA

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

YEARS SINCE 1ST ENROLLED

2008-09 STUDENTS ANNUAL

UNDUPLICATED

HEADCOUNT

GRADUATED%

GRADUATED

2009-10 # RETAINED ANNUAL

UNDUPLICATED

HEADCOUNT

% RETAINED2009-10

RETURNING STUDENTS

RETURN ADJUSTMEN

T

NON-RETAINED

UNADJUSTED

ATTRITION RATE

ADJUSTED ATTRITION

RATE

1 100 0 0% 80 80% 0 0% 20 20% 20%2 87 0 0% 72 83% 1 1% 15 17% 16%3 81 10 12% 60 74% 2 2% 11 14% 11%4 60 40 67% 15 25% 1 2% 5 8% 7%5 30 12 40% 12 40% 1 3% 6 20% 17%

6+ 60 20 33% 30 50% 1 2% 10 17% 15%418 82 20% 269 64% 6 1% 67 16% 15%

PROJECTION CHAINS11 12

2010-11 STUDENTS

UNDUPLICATED

HEADCOUNT2011-12

GRADUATES2011-12

ATTRITION

2012-13 REMAINING STUDENTS

2012-13 GRADUATES

2011-12 ATTRITION

2013-14 REMAINING STUDENTS

2013-14 GRADUATES

2013-14 ATTRITION

2014-15 REMAINING STUDENTS

YEARS SINCE 1ST ENROLLED

1 110 - 22 2 93 - 15 88 - 14 3 85 10 9 78 10 9 74 9 8 4 70 47 5 65 43 4 60 40 4 57 5 44 18 7 19 7 3 17 7 3 16

6+ 80 27 12 19 6 3 8 3 1 8 6+ 41 14 6 10 3 1 4 6+ 21 7 3 5 6+ 11

Questions or comments?

• Materials will be released soon on the Delta Project website:

www.deltacostproject.org

• Feedback and questions welcome:nate.johnson@postsecondaryanalytics.com