Measurement 4

Trade and Migration

General problems of measurement

Flows of goods or of people, or of money (capital transfers, cash remittances…) between two countries

Statistics are usually built at State level: customs, people’s registration, banks, etc.

Clandestine / unregistered flows across borders

Inconsistencies

Trade

Total exports should fit total imports between one area A and one area B

Sometimes not (ex. Oil from Africa)

Trade balances from national accounts ≠ Balance of payments (customs and central banks data)

Measurement of protection is a hard task: tariffs and especially tariff-equivalent measures of non-tariff barriers (e.g. quotas) MacMaps Database of CEPII in France

Foreign Direct Investments

Balance of payments source (IMF standards): money flows, potentially disaggregated by sectors (OECD database)

Multinational firms data with employment, output, etc.: only for some countries, from national sources (industrial censuses), specific surveys…

Official Development Assistance

Collected and homogenized by DAC for OECD countries

Commitments (for a number of years)≠ Disbursements (in one year)

Grants (incl. debt relief)Concessionary part of loansOther things: research for development, wages of

international organizations…

ODA is progressive, FDI, Exports and Migration are regressive

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nz &

Con

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ratio

n cu

rves

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Population ranked by GDP per capita 2000-03

Tot. ODA/OA 2000-01 FDI net infl. 2000-01 Nat.living in OECD c. 2000

Exports to OECD 2000-01 GDP PPP 2000 45 deg. line

Migrations

Definition issues: what is a migrant? Country of birth (Australia, Canada, New-Zealand, USA), nationality (EU, Japan, Korea), time of stay…

Flows: Permits & population registers (only some countries like Belgium, Netherlands):

- rules of registration vary - measurement at the time of the permit delivery- usually entries > exits

Refugees (UNHCR)Nationality acquisition

Stocks: Population censuses, Labor force surveys allows knowledge of some migrants’ characteristics more irregular migrants Migrants in collective households not covered by LFS

Specific surveys on migrant sub-samples of the population. How to reach 2nd generation, especially in jus soli countries?

In the future: mirror-surveys

1) Collect data in the country of origin: households with migrants outside

2) Track the migrants in the country of residence (costly step!)

3) Information on both sides to analyze migration behaviors (decisions to move, to remit, etc.)

4) Complex network structures

Expatriation rates in OECD by GDP per capita

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

PIB par habitant (en % de celui des USA)

Ta

ux

d'e

xp

atr

iati

on

Source : Jean-Christophe Dumont et Georges Lemaître, 2005, OCDE, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/34/59/35043046.pdf; authors computation. Note : Blue diamonds are countries; the pink curve is a kernel regression.

Regions of the Third World and Migrations

Region of origin

# of

coun-tries

Demo-graphic weight

2000

GDP/cap.

in % of USA

2000

Average annual growth rate(d)

1980-2000

Expatria-

tion rate(f) in OECD(e)

c. 2000

Share of migrants total in

OECD(e)

c. 2000

Share of migrants total in EU 15

c. 2000

Share of highly skilled

migrants in

OECD(g)

c. 2000

Asia(a) 24 70.0% 10.3% +4.8% 0.4% 31.9% 23.1% 53.2%

Sub-Saharan Africa

45 14.1% 5.0% -0.9% 0.5% 7.0% 16.2% 10.2%

Mediterranean Basin(b)

9 5.0% 15.1% +1.6% 3.0% 16.2% 47.5% 11.3%

Latin America and Caraïbes(c)

31 10.9% 21.4% +0.5% 3.7% 44.9% 13.3% 25.3%

Source : OECD, Dumont and Lemaître (2005) ; authors' computations. (a) : Incl. Middle-East and South-Korea. Excl. Central Asia (former USSR) and Japan (b) : Incl. Turkey. (c) : Incl. Mexico. (d) : Country sample size is reduced (e) : Excl. South-Korea, Turkey and Mexico. (f) : Ratio of the number of persons born in a Third World region and residing in an OECD country circa 2000, over the sum of this number and resident population. (g) : Share of 15 years old and over having a tertiary education diploma, born in a Third World region and residing in an OECD country, in the total of the same population for all Third World regions taken together.

GDP per capita inequality between countries of birth

Standard inequality Inequality of opportunity at birth

Criterion Country of residence

Country of birth

Difference (%)

Gini index 0.541 0.527 -2.6 Theil-L index 0.533 0.498 -6.6 Theil-T index 0.540 0.507 -6.1 Ratio p90 / p10 16.7 15.6 -6.6 Number of countries 148 Population 5,870.0 millions Migrants OECD natives 38.1 millions Migrants born outside OECD 40.9 millions Total of migrants 79.0 millions Average expatriation rate 1.3% Sources : Penn World Tables 6.1 (Heston, Summers and Aten, 2002) and OECD (Dumont and Lemaître, 2005). Coverage : Former USSR countries are counted as one unique country, as well as former Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. Korea natives without precision are counted as South-Native..