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Meaning of "targets" for an emerging
country : The 'bifurcation' challenge
P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Indian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India
Presented in ParisTech side-event: “Modeling for Sustainable Development”Organized by CIRED, Copenhagen, December 14, 2009
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton As told to CNN's Fareed Zakaria in an interview http://business.rediff.com/report/2009/aug/11/do-no t-follow-us-growth-model-clinton-tells-india.htmhttp://edition.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/fareed.zakaria.g ps/
"Although India and China have every right to choos e their own path of development, they should not follow the Ame rican model in their Endeavour to improve the condition of their c itizens, ….“
Developing Country Scenarios
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
their Endeavour to improve the condition of their c itizens, ….“
"Our argument to China and India is: Yes, you have a right to develop and we want you to develop, and in fact, we admire your commitment to eradicating poverty and we want to he lp you do that. But you can't do it the way we did it, becaus e you will suffer consequences that will undermine your development" …
Alternate Development Perspectives
Carbon Market
Technologies
Energy Resources
Universal Participation
Market Structure/ Rules
Allocation of Rights
Modify Preferences
Competition/ Trade
Energy-Mix Mandates
Tech Transfer
Cooperative R&D
Remove Market Barriers
TargetInterventionsDriversAim
Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss
Global Greenhouse Gas
Concentration Stabilization
Carbon Market
Technologies
Energy Resources
Universal Participation
Market Structure/ Rules
Allocation of Rights
Modify Preferences
Competition/ Trade
Energy-Mix Mandates
Tech Transfer
Cooperative R&D
Remove Market Barriers
TargetInterventionsDriversAim
Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss
Global Greenhouse Gas
Concentration Stabilization
Conventional Climate Centric Paradigm
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
ForecastingForecasting
Sustainable Development and Climate Paradigm
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co -benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co -benefits
Sustainability
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock -ins
Long -term Vision
Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios
Stabilization Scenarios with Global Targets
Baseline Paradigm
Scenarios
Conventional Sustainability
∆t 4 to 6OC ∆t 3 to 5OC
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
StabilizationTargets
Geography Level
2.66.0 5.0 Radiative Forcing Target W/m2
Global Regional National
4.5 2.66.0 5.0 4.5
Global Global Regional NationalGlobalLocal Local
∆t 3OC
∆t 2OC
Integrated Modeling Framework
DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
Integrated Modelling Framework
DATABASESDATABASESSocio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment
AIM CGE/GCAM
Integrated Modeling Framework
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
ANSWER-MARKALModel
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
Strategic D
atabase(S
DB
)
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
Strategic Database
(SDB
)
ANSWER-MARKALModel
AIM ExSSEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
(SDB
)(S
trategic Database
)
National Analysis: MARKAL & End-Use Models
From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%
Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times
3,000
3,500Other RenewablesNuclearHydro
Energy
Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population
Carbon Emissions 7,000
8,000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mto
e
HydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20402045 2050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
Global Stabilization Target: 2 OC
Mitigation Technology Options
Conventional Approach: transition with conventional path and carbon price
• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push• Top-down/Supply-side actions
Technology Co-operation Areas• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/CCS0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
Other
CCS
Device Efficiency
Nuclear
Renewable
Fossil Switch
Emissions (for 2O
Target)
Baseline Emissions
Carbon Price ($) 20 87 136 20052
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions
• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio
Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes
Carbon Price ($) 20 87 136 20052
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
CCSTransport Reduced ConsumptionRecyclingMaterial Substitutions
Device Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Building
Fossil Switch
Emissions (for 2O
Target)
Carbon Price ($) 15 55 100 11728
Dematerialization
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton
)
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton
)
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
Cement
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton
)Steel
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
SocietyDem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Steel
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Conventional
Development
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton
)
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Paper
Dem
and
(Tril
lion
Ton
-Km
s)
0
1000
2000
3000
Conventional
Development
Sustainable Society
Transport
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Sustainable Cities: Planning and Infrastructures
• Land-use Planning
• Building Choices
• Infrastructures
• Service Networks
Technologies for Train Corridors
Bus Rapid Transport System
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Bus Rapid Transport System
AMC (Old
boundary)
AMC (New
boundary)
Low Carbon Scenario: AhmedabadAhmedabad (2009) Pop 5.5 Mil
10.2
61.1
20.4
8.6
15.4
6.3
2.44.33.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS
GH
G E
mis
sion
s/re
duct
ions
(mt-
C02
)
Transport EfficiencyIndustry EfficiencyBuilding EfficiencyFuel Switch
Energy Service demand
Coal + CCS
Emissions
Mitigation Contributions
67%
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Industry Sector
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Inde
x 20
05 =
1
Output (Bn INR) Energy Demand GHG Emissions
2005 2035 BAU 2035 SS
Co-benefits of Energy Choices
CoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market
Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030
$ Billion % GDP
Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87
CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08
SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03
MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Total 359 0.98
Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits
• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)
• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)
• Flood control (MDG1&7)
• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)
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India
China
Iran
Pakistan
Afghanistan
OmanMyanmar (Burma)
Thailand
Nepal
Turkmenistan
Saudi Arabia
Tajikistan
Yemen
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Uzbekistan
Somalia
United Arab Emirates
Qatar
Laos
Malaysia
Bahrain
IndonesiaMaldives
Pune
GayaKota
Guna
Gadag
Kochi
Patna
Delhi
Anand
Dadra
SuratOlpad
Kalol
Panvel
Hassan
Dispur
Ambala
Nangal
Kanpur
Jhansi
UjjainJhabua
Valsad
NadiadRajkot
SolapurGuhagarChiptun
Chennai
Nellore
Kolkata
Sangrur
Sonipat
AuraiyaGwalior
Chotila Bharuch
PalmanerChittoor
Kokinada
LudhianaBathinda
Bareilly
Vijaypur
Mahesana
Tutikorin
MangaloreBangalore
Vijaywada
Faridabad
Ratnagiri
Kayankulam
Coimbatore
Jagdishpuri
Shahjahanpur
Vishakhapattnam
Tiruchchirappalli
Herat
MultanQuetta
Khuzdar
Karachi
Delaram
Kandhar
South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas
Legend Important PlacesExisting Gas Pipelines
Proposed Gas Pipelines
Existing LNG terminalsProposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin
Gas Pipelines under construction
Proposed Gas Basin¨
Carbon Price
Primary Energy and Carbon Price
400
800
1,200
1,600
Pri
mar
y E
nerg
y D
eman
d (M
toe)
Base
LCS_CT
LCS_SS
Total Energy Demand
(Mtoe )
Base 2825
LCS_CT 2945
LCS_SS 2207
Energy Mix in 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2OC Sustainability Scenario
Base Scenario0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pric
e (U
S $
/tCO
2)
2OC Conventional Mitigation Scenario
Carbon Price
0
400
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable
Pri
mar
y E
nerg
y D
eman
d (M
toe)
• Finance for Technology Transfer to developing countries
� Private, ODA and Development Bank Financing � Global funding for cooperation on RD&D
• Developing Technology Market � Coordinated Global and National Policies and Instruments
Global Carbon Price
Domestic Technology Industry
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
� Global Carbon Price� National Environmental Standards� National Energy Tax
• Creating Technology Industry in developing countrie s� Project Partnerships� JV for R&D� JVs for Technology Production in Developing Countries
Coordinated Targets for Co-Benefits
Coordinated Targets to gain Multiple Dividends
• In developing countries, significant opportunities exist for gaining co-benefits
• Technology Assessment should consider all costs and benefits
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
consider all costs and benefits
“For developing countries, the ‘good news’ is that their environment and natural resources policies are often so bad that there are reforms which would be both good for the economy and good for the environment.”
Joseph Stiglitz