mea
TRANSCRIPT
INDONESIA MENUJU AEC 2015 DAN INDONESIA MENUJU AEC 2015 DAN
VISI MARITIMVISI MARITIM
Faisal Basri 8 November8 November 2014 2014
Bagian IBagian IRegional isme, Asean, dan IndonesiaRegional isme, Asean, dan Indonesia
From multilateralism to regionalism?
Source: WTO, World Trade Report 2011.
From multilateralism to regionalism?
Source: WTO, World Trade Report 2011.
Cumulative number of PTAs in force, 1950-2000, notified and non-notified PTAs, by country group
expanding to Eastern Europe
expanding to Latin America
Main Regional FTAs NAFTAPopulation: 445 mil.GDP: US$15.857 tril.
EUPopulation: 491 mil.GDP: US$ 14.38 tril.
CHINA Population: 1.330 bil.GDP PPP: US$ 6.991 tril.
JAPANPopulation: 127 mil.GDP PPP: US$ 4.29 tril.
ASEANPopulation: 575.5 mil.GDP: US$ 3.431 bil.
FTA Canada – Chile 1997FTA : Chile – Mexico 1999FTA : USA – Chile 2004FTA : USA – Singapore 2004FTA : USA – Australia 2005FTA : Mexico – Japan 2005FTA : Chile – Brunei – NZ – Singapore 2006
MERCOSURArgentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay
FTAA(by 2005)
under negotiation
NAFTAU.S.A.,
Canada,Mexico
SAPTABangladesh,
Bhutan, India, Maldives,
Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
China - ASEAN FTA
ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (AJCEP)
Japan-Korea FTA(under negotiation)
Japan-Mexico EPA(signed agreement)
Japan’s Bilaterals:•Japan-Singapore EPA •Japan-Philippines EPA•Japan-Thailand EPA•Japan-Malaysia EPA•Japan-Indonesia EPAAFTA
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia
India - ASEAN FTA
EU-MEXICO FTA
EU25 countries
ACP-EUCountries in Africa and
the Caribbean (approx. 70 countries)
Japan-Mexico
EPA(signed agreement)
Japan-Korea-China FTA (under negotiation)
Australia-New Zealand-ASEAN FTA
Korea - ASEAN FTA
6
Asean in the global landscape: paling banyak mitranya di dunia
Rezim perdagangan Indonesia sudah sangat bebas
8.6
8.2
7.9
5.7
5.6
5.2
4.9
4.8
4.5
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.7
2.7
2.6
1.6
Venezuela (2011)India (2009)Brazil (2011)
Vietnam (2010)Argentina (2011)
Russia (2011)Thailand (2009)
Philippines (2010)South Africa (2011)
China (2011)Malaysia (2009)
Qatar (2009)Bolivia (2011)Turkey (2011)
Indonesia (2011)United States (2011)
Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)(2011 or latest data available)
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS
Aras tariff (bea masuk)
Versi Kemenkeu
1995: 15,48%1998: 9,24%2007: 7,81%2011: 7,56%
Versi Bank Dunia
1995: 10,8%1999: 6,1%2007: 3,9%2011: 2,6%
World Bank: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and import weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade (Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead.
World Bank: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and import weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade (Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead.
Indonesia: skema tarif bea masuk
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
MFN 9.9 9,9 9,5 7,8 7,6 7,5 7,49
CEPT 3.4 2,8 2,8 2,0 1,9 1,9 0
ACFTA 9.9 9,6 9,5 6,4 6,4 3,8 2,9
AKFTA 9.9 9.9 9.5 6,6 6,0 2,6 2,6
AANZ 9.9 9,9 9,5 7,8 7,6 7,5 -
IJEPA 9.9 9.9 9.5 7.8 5,2 4,5 2,97
Sumber: Kemendag, 2009.
Goods imported tariff rates under ACFTA
* Average tariff on goods imported from Indonesia.Source: The World Bank, March 2010.
Country 2005 206 207 2008 2009 2010
Indonesia 9.57 9.50 6.37 6.38 3.83 2.92
Thailand 12.36 12.36 8.38 8.38 5.10 2.67
Philippines n.a n.a n.a n.a 3.54 4.64
China* 8.30 8.30 6.55 6.55 3.02 1.05
Simple average, percent
Bagian IBagian I IIAsean: Dari AFTA ke Mitra DagangAsean: Dari AFTA ke Mitra Dagang
Source: http://www.asean-community.au.edu/
Peta 10 negara anggota Asean
NegaraBiaya
ProduksiDengan
Bea Masuk 50%
FTAA+B
A (Ina) 50 50 50
B (Chn) 40 60 40
C (Bra) 30 45 45
FTA: trade diversion
NegaraBiaya
ProduksiDengan
Bea Masuk 100%
FTAA+B
A (Ina) 50 50 50
B (Chn) 40 80 40
C (Bra) 30 60 60
FTA: trade creation
FTA Asean-China
Normal Track (target of tariff rate = 0%)(a) Early Harvest Program (2006)(b) NT1 (2010)(c) NT2 (2012)
Sensitive list(a) Tahun 2012 tarif menjadi 20%(b) Tahun 2018 tarif menjadi 0-5%
Highly Sensitive list Tahun 2015 tarif menjadi 50% (untuk produk yang pada tahun 2002 tingkat tarifnya >50%)
Diuntungkankah Indonesia?
Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010.
Dampak dan sektor yang dirugikan
Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010.
Sektor-sektor yang diuntungkan
Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010.
Perubahan
Output, %
1Other Meat: pig meat and offal. preserves and preparations of meat, meat offal or blood, flours, meals and pellets of meat or inedible meat offal; greaves
7.5
2Chemical Rubber Products: basic chemicals, other chemical products, rubber and plastics products
6.6
3 Non-Metallic Minerals: cement, plaster, lime, gravel, concrete 3.9
4
Other Animal Products: swine, poultry and other live animals; eggs, in shell (fresh or cooked), natural honey, snails (fresh or preserved) except sea snails; frogs’ legs, edible products of animal origin n.e.c., hides, skins and furskins, raw , insect waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined or coloured
3.6
5 Milk: dairy products 3.3
6Other Machinery & Equipment: electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c., medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks
3.3
7
Other Food: prepared and preserved fish or vegetables, fruit juices and vegetable juices, prepared and preserved fruit and nuts, all cereal flours, groats, meal and pellets of wheat, cereal groats, meal and pellets n.e.c., other cereal grain products (including corn flakes), other vegetable flours and meals, mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers’ wares, starches and starch products; sugars and sugar syrups n.e.c., preparations used in animal feeding, bakery products, cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery, macaroni, noodles, couscous and similar farinaceous products, food products n.e.c.
2.5
8 Motor Vehicles: cars, lorries, trailers and semi-trailers 2.4
9 Construction: building houses factories offices and roads 2.2
10 Textiles: textiles and man-made fibres 1.8Sumber: Output GTAP
SektorNo.
Sensitive track Indonesia
Sensitive List: 304 Produk (HS 6 digit), antara lain barang jadi kulit (tas, dompet); alas kaki (sepatu sport, casual, kulit); kacamata; alat musik (tiup, petik, gesek); mainan-boneka; alat olah raga; alat tulis; besi dan baja; spare part; alat angkut; glokasida dan alkaloid nabati; senyawa organik; antibiotik; kaca; barang-barang plastik.
Highly Sensitive List: 47 Produk (HS 6 digit), antara lain terdiri dari produk pertanian, seperti beras, gula, jagung dan kedelai; produk industri tekstil dan produk tekstil (itpt); produk otomotif; produk ceramic tableware.
Sayangnya, Indonesia satu-satunya negara Asean yang alami defisit perdagangan dgn China
* January-August.Source: BPS.
(Non-oil & gas trade account Indonesia-China,US$ million)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Exports 7,787 8,920
14,073 21,596 20,864 21,282 11,293
Imports -14,948 -13,491 -19,687 -25,456 -28,962 -29,570 -19,688
Trade Balance -7,161 -4,591 -5,614 -3,860 -8,098 -8,288 -8,395
% of Total Exports 7.2 9.1 10.8 13.3 13.6 14.2 11.7
Imports 15.2 17.3 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.9 22.0
Rank
Exports 4 3 2 1 1 1 1
Imports 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Kajian Kemenperin
Growth of manufacturing industries
Source: BPS.
2009 2010 2011Q1-
11Q2-
11Q3-
11Q4-
11Q1-
12Q2-
12
Food, beverages and tobacco 11.2 2.7 9.2 4.0 9.4 8.3 14.0 8.2 6.0
Textiles, leather and footwear 0.6 1.7 7.5 10.4 8.2 7.3 4.0 1.4 4.3
Wood and forestry products -1.4 -3.5 0.4 -0.4 3.2 0.0 -1.8 -0.9 -7.9
Paper and printing 6.3 1.6 1.5 4.2 3.9 -1.2 -1.4 0.5 -7.4
Fertilizers, chemicals&ruber products 1.6 4.7 4.0 -0.1 6.7 5.8 3.0 9.2 2.2
Cement and non-metal quarrying -0.5 2.2 7.2 4.3 5.7 8.3 10.0 6.1 7.7
Basic metals and steel -4.3 2.6 13.1 18.2 15.5 11.4 9.3 5.6 1.9
Vehicles, machinery and equipments -2.9 10.4 7.0 8.8 4.5 7.8 6.6 6.2 11.7
NON-OIL & GAS MFG INDUSTRIES 2.6 5.1 6.8 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.4 6.1 6.0
TOTAL MFG INDUSTRIES 2.2 4.5 6.2 5.0 6.2 6.6 6.7 5.7 5.4
GDP 6.5 6.3 6.4
% change, year-on-year, 2009-2011
Bagian IBagian I IIIIMEA 2015: Menuju Integrasi a la MEA 2015: Menuju Integrasi a la
EC?EC?
Asean Economic Community
Menuju integrasi “total” ikuti jejak Euro Zone? Sejarahnya berbeda, setidaknya masih jauh. Sistem politiknya juga berbeda.
Perdagangan bebas dalam skema AFTA sejak 2002 sudah nyarus tuntas.
Perluasan cakupan ke sektor jasa dan investasi Sharing prosperity. MEA ditopang oleh proyek konektivitas
(connectivity) Peran mitra “dekat” Asean East Asia Economic
Community: Asean+3 (China, Korea, Japan)
Perdagangan intra-Asean sangat dan tetap kecil
Value
(US$ billion)Percentof total
2004 260,9 24,3
2011 598,2 25,0
2013 608,6 24,2
Intra-Asean Trade
Intra-EU Trade (EU-25)
2004: 67.6 percent
Intra-NAFTA Trade
2004: 55.9 percent
Perdagangan Intra-Asean dan mitra utama
Trading Bloc (2013, in US$) Total trade between the Asociation of Southeast Asian Nations and 10 biggest partners = US$1,358Source: asean.org
Intra- and extra-Asean trade
Source: Asean Secretariat.
Intra-Asean Extra-Asean Intra-Asean Extra-Asean Intra-Asean Extra-Asean
Brunei D 23.1 76.9 51.0 49.0 29.8 70.2
Cambodia 14.2 85.8 30.7 69.3 22.5 77.5
Indonesia 22.3 77.7 29.0 71.0 25.6 74.4
Lao PDR 47.6 52.4 75.8 24.2 63.4 36.6
Malaysia 28.1 71.9 26.7 73.3 27.4 72.6
Myanmar 49.2 50.8 35.3 64.7 42.1 57.9
Philippines 16.0 84.0 21.8 78.2 19.1 80.9
Singapore 31.4 68.6 20.9 79.1 26.4 73.6
Thailand 25.9 74.1 17.8 82.2 21.7 78.3
Vietnam 13.7 86.3 16.2 83.8 14.9 85.1
ASEAN 26.0 74.0 22.4 77.6 24.2 75.8
Exports Imports Total trade(2013, %)
Direction of non-oil exports (f.o.b.,%)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*Asean 21.8 21.0 20.8 19.9 20.4 20.1 19.8Singapore 9.4 8.1 7.4 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0Malaysia 5.5 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 4.8 4.4Thailand 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.5Others 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.8European Union 14.2 13.9 13.2 12.6 11.7 11.1 11.7Germany 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0France 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7United Kingdom 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2Other 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.9
Other Major Countries 40.6 42.2 43.5 51.7 51.8 51.2 49.7China 7.2 9.1 10.8 13.3 13.6 14.2 11.7Japan 12.8 12.3 12.7 11.3 11.2 10.7 9.8United States 11.6 10.7 10.3 9.7 9.5 10.1 10.8India - - 7.6 8.2 8.1 8.7 8.2Australia 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.6Korea 4.3 5.3 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8Taiwan 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 Others 23.4 22.9 22.5 15.8 16.1 17.6 18.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0* January-August.Source: BPS.
Source: http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2012/11/09/china-to-join-rcep-creating-massive-free-trade-area-with-asean-india-and-japan.html
Asean diapit oleh negara-negara besar
Asean Economic Community bukan integrasi
Jika MEA diterapkan secara konsisten seperti EU, maka free movements of factors of production meliputi: tenaga kerja (free labor area), modal (free capital area), pengusaha (free entrepreneur area), dan tanah (free ownership of lands)
Seribu satu masalah muncul. Kalaupun hendak diterapkan akan mengalami berbagai tahapan.
Asean tidak menuju pada integrasi ekonomi (economic integration = harmonisasi kebijakan ekonomi—yang EU pun belum sepenuhnya), apalagi total integration.
Connectivity berbeda dengan integrasi. Pemilihan istilah connectivity merupakan bahasa halus bahwa Asean tidak dirancang untuk berintegrasi.
Connectivity
Physical connectivity Transport Information and Communications Technology (ICT)
Energy Institutional connectivity
Trade liberalisation and facilitation Investment and services liberalisation and facilitation Mutual recognition agreements/arrangements Regional transport agreements Cross-border procedures
Capacity building programmes People-to-people connectivity
Education and Culture Tourism
Interaction Asean connectivity - Asean Community
Bagian IBagian I VVJadi , MEA Targetnya Apa?Jadi , MEA Targetnya Apa?
Pasar Asean cukup menggiurkan
Meningkatkan daya tarik investasi asing karena pasar yang cukup besar (economies of scale sekawasan) bangun pabrik di satu lokasi dijual ke seluruh Asean.
2.388
964
692
643
475
425
46
33
30
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
Singapore
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Brunei Darussalam
Asean GDP, PPP (Billions of international dollars, 2013)
Indonesia is the world’s 10 largest producer of goods and services
* Asean minus MyanmarSource: World Bank, World Development Indicators
16.800
16.158
6.774
5.696
4.624
3.493
3.461
3.012
2.437
2.388
2.320
United States
China
India
Asean*
Japan
Germany
Russian Federation
Brazil
France
Indonesia
United Kingdom
(Purchasing power parity (PPP), billions of international dollars, 2013)
Asean masuk kategori tersendiri di IMF
Asean GDP per capita: current US$ and purchasing power parity (PPP)
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
1.008
1.646
1.911
2.765
3.475
5.779
10.514
38.563
55.182
3.042
4.812
5.293
6.533
9.559
14.390
23.298
71.759
78.744
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Brunei Darussalam
Singapore
US$, 2013
PPP Current US$
More FDI from intra-Asean as well as the World
Asean Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Flows, US$ million, 2000 and 2011
Source: Asean Secretariat, ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System Full Report 2012, Jakarta, September 2013, p. 52.
Rata-rata 4 negara Asean selalu masuk 10 besar FDI Jepang selama 1997-2013
Rank 1997 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1st China China China China China China China China China China China Indonesia
2nd USA Thailand Thailand India India India India India India India India India
3rd Indonesia USA India Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Thailand
4th Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Viet nam Thailand Thailand Russia Thailand Thailand Vietnam Thailand China
5th India India USA USA USA Russia Thailand Russia Brazil Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam
6th Vetnam Indonesia Russia Russia Russia USA Brazil Brazil Indonesia Brazil Brazil Brazil
7th Philippines Korea Indonesia Korea Brazil Brazil USA USA Russia Russia Mexico Mexico
8th Malaysia Taiwan Korea Indonesia Korea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia USA USA Russia Myanmar
9th Brazil Malaysia Taiwan Brazil Indonesia Korea Korea Korea Korea Malaysia Myanmar Russia
10th Taiwan Russia Malaysia Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Malaysia Malaysia Taiwan USA USA
Promising countries for overseas business operation by Japanese manufacturing companies over the medium term (next 3 years or so): China is no longer the most promising destination
Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), “Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese ManufacturingCompanies,” various issues.
Singapore dan Indonesia masuk Top 20 host economies untuk FDI
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page xv.
17
17
18
20
24
27
28
3036
37
38
39
50
62
64
64
77
79
124
188
20. Italy19. Colombia18. Indonesia
17. Chile16. Netherlands
15. Germany14. India
13. Luxerbourg12. Ireland
11. United Kingdom10. Mexico
9. Spain8. Australia
7. Canada6.Singapore
5.Brazil4. Hong Kong, China
3. Russian Federation2. China
1. United States
Developing economies
Developed economies
2013, Billions of US dollars
5 negara Asean masuk TNC’s top prospective host economies for 2014-16
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page 28.
Developing economies
Developing economies
The Economist: 4 negara Asean mendominasi investment destination in Asia (2013)
Source: The Economist, Asia Economic Outlook Survey 2013.
37,7
38,6
43,0
53,5
54,1
73,8
32,8
33,9
38,5
27,1
32,0
20,6
26,2
25,2
16,3
18,6
13,9
5,0
3,3
2,4
2,2
0,8
0,7
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
China
Increase investment Still in the market, but will not invest more
Have no plan to invest Reduce investment
Rangkuman
AEC meningkatkan daya saing Asean secara kesatuan sebagai destinasi investasi dari berbagai negara.
Investor asing tak perlu lagi membangun fasilitas produksi di setiap negara Asean. Pembagian kerja semakin tajam dalam kerangka regional production network. Indonesia mau dapat apa? Harapannya sebanyak mungkin karena memiliki pasar yang paling besar.
Persaingan terjadi bukan di antara perusahaan di Asean, melainkan persaingan antarnegara. Negara yang berhasil menawarkan fixed cost paling rendah berpeluang dapat lebih banyak. Variable cost semakin kurang menentukan.
Tidak hanya sebagai regional production base, tetapi juga global production base.
Quantity0
Rp
ATCM
QM QI
PM
PIPFTA
QFTA
ATCI
Ilustrasi teoretis
Indonesia merupakan pasar terbesar kedua di dunia untuk Blackberry.
Tetapi Blackberry diputuskan diprodukdi di Malaysia.
PI*
XM
high cost
Sumber informasi dan statistik Asean
Asean Community Pregress Monitoring System 2012: http://www.bps.go.id/download_file/Asean.pdf
Asean Secretariat: http://www.asean.org/asean/asean-secretariat
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS): http://www.iseas.edu.sg/
Asean Economic Community Blueprint: http://www.asean.org/archive/5187-10.pdf
Bagian Bagian VVMEA dan Visi Maritim KitaMEA dan Visi Maritim Kita
Keunikan Indonesia
Simbolisme kembali ke jati diri: negara maritim
KOMPAS.COM/RODERICK ADRIAN MOZES
Kompas.com/Fabian Januardo Kuwado
Dua tonggak kejayaan Nusantara: Kerajaan Sriwijaya dan Kerajaan Majapahit
Kejayaan Sriwijaya pada abad ke-9 ditandai dengan kekuasaannya hingga ke Jawa, Kalimantan, dan Semenanjung Malaya.
Selain itu, Kerajaan Sriwijaya menguasai jalur perdagangan di Asia Tenggara dan memiliki pengaruh kuat di jalur perdagangan antara China dan India.
Tanpa kekuatan armada laut yang tangguh, niscaya pengaruh Sriwijaya tidak akan diperhitungkan di kawasan Asia.
Ketangguhan armada laut pula yang mewarnai kejayaan Majapahit pada abad ke-14. Majapahit mampu menguasai seantero Nusantara, Semenanjung Malaya, dan armada lautnya menjelajah hingga ke Laut China Selatan.
Srikandi penjelajah samudera
Laksamana Keumalahayati
Hidup sekitar abad XV dan awal abad XVI. Sumber lain: 1585-1604.
Laksamana perempuan pertama di dunia.
Ayah dan kakeknya juga laksamana di kesultanan Aceh
Dengan gemilang bertempur melawan Portugis dan Belanda. Pada 1599 komandan kapal Belanda, Cornelis de Houtman, tewas dalam pertempuran yang dipimpin Laksamana Malahayati.
Jati diri sebagai negara maritim
Indonesia merupakan negara lautan yang dihiasi sekitar 17.508 pulau yang membentuk untaian zamrud khatulistiwa.
Gugusan pulau (archipelago): perairan laut yang bertaburan pulau, bukan “pulau-pulau yang dikelilingi laut”.
Wilayah Tanah Air Indonesia seluas 5,2 juta km2, dua pertiganya berupa lautan yang mempersatukan gugusan kepulauan Nusantara, bukan memisahkan dan menjadikannya berjauhan satu sama lain.
Indonesia merupakan negara kepulauan paling besar di dunia. Deklarasi Djuanda 13 Desember 1957 pun menyatakan Indonesia sebagai negara kepulauan.
Indonesia sebagai negara maritim dengan garis pantai 95.181 km, terpanjang ke-4 di dunia. Kesadaran itu sudah lama kokoh di bumi Pertiwi.
Bangsa kita menggunakan istilah tanah air untuk tumpah darahnya, bukan padanan dari motherland atau homeland.
Dikumandangkan lewat lagu “Dari Barat Sampai ke Timur”
“Dari Barat sampai ke TimurBerjajar pulau-pulauSambung-menyambung menjadi satuItulah Indonesia …..”
--Wage Rudolf Supratman
Lautlah yang mempersambungkan 17.508 pulau itu, bukan jembatan.
Tuhan mengaruniai kita jalan bebas hambatan tak berbayar, tidak perlu diaspal, tidak perlu tiang pancang, dan tidak membutuhkan pembebasan tanah.
Negara maritim the archipelago economy“Untuk membangun Indonesia menjadi negara besar, negara kuat, negara makmur, negara damai yang merupakan National Building bagi negara Indonesia, maka negara dapat menjadi kuat jika dapat menguasai lautan. Untuk menguasai lautan kita harus menguasai armada yang seimbang.” (Ir. Soekarno dalam National Maritime Convention I (NMC), 1963)
Mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik: memperkecil TIGA DISPARITASTIGA DISPARITAS
Source: R.J. Lino’s presentatatiom, March 2011.
1. Disparitas harga produsen dan konsumen
Di Jakarta, harga duku “Pontianak” di salah satu supermarket pada 8 September 2014 Rp 28.900/kg
Di Pontianak:• Minggu pertama
September 6 kg Rp 20.000 = Rp 3.333/kg
• Minggu kedua 4 kg Rp 20.000 = Rp 5.000/kg
Harga di Jakarta 5,8-8,7 kali lipat harga di Pontianak.
Price disparities (Rupiah)
Region Rice Wheat flour Sugar Cooking oil Salt
East Jawa 4,250 3,606 6,000 4,150 1,600
West Kalimantan 4,400 4,000 5,800 4,500 2,450
East Kalimantan 4,500 4,000 6,500 4,500 2,000
South Sulawesi 4,400 3,500 6,500 4,500 2,000East Nusa Tenggara 4,200 4,500 5,800 6,300 2,000
Merauke 5,000 7,000 7,000 6,670 3,000
Nabire 6,000 10,000 11,000 11,000 4,000
Paniai 18,000 7,500 8,000 7,000 8,000Source: Ministry of Trade.
2. Disparitas harga lokal dan impor
Survei Bank Dunia (pra-regulasi impor holtikultura)• Harga di supermarket Jakarta• Jeruk Tiongkok …… Rp 17.000 per kg• Jeruk Medan ……… Rp 20.000 per kg
Observasi terbaru di 2 supermarket (Rp per kg)22 Februari 2004 22 Februari 2004 26 April 2004
Rp 35.500 Rp 37.000
Rp 32.900
Rp 34.900Rp 19.900
Rp 46.900
3. Disparitas ongkos angkut ekspor dan impor
Source: Asean Secretariat, ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System Full Report 2012, Jakarta, September 2013, p. 43.
This explains why oranges from Medan are more expensive to some extent….
Jeruk impor diangkut kapal berpengatur suhu, kapasitas ribuan kali lipat truk, bebas hambatan
Source: R.J. Lino’s presentatatiom, March 2011.
Cement in Papua is 20 times more expensive than in Jakarta because of shipping costs
Container Shipment cost:Padang – Jakarta = US$600 Jakarta – Singapore = US$185
Fakta lain yang membuat miris
Source: R.J. Lino’s presentatatiom, March 2011.
Potensi kekayaan laut
Bumi Indonesia di bawah laut mengandung minyak bumi dan gas alam
Perairan ZEE berpotensi menghasilkan 6,7 juta ton ikan per tahun, belum lagi laut nasional seluas 75% dari seluruh permukaan wilayah nasional sumber protein sehat (ironi daging sapi)
Setiap satu kilometer kubik air laut mengandung:• Oksigen (O) dan Hidrogen (H)
• 35 juta ton garam, 66.000 ton bromium, 200 ton litium, 50 ton yodium, dan 1 ton titanium, uranium, perak, dan emas
Di dasar laut: bungkalan-bungkalan sebesar kentang yang mengandung mangan, besi, nikel, tembaga, kobalt, titanium, dan vanadium.
Sumber: Daoed Joesoef, “Jalesveva Jayamahe,” Tinjauan Pembangunan Maritim Indonesia, Edisi II Tahun 2013: Menggapai Negara Maritim, hal. 6-7.
Sealanes of communication
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_America
Mengelola kekayaan laut
“A democratic power is never likely to perish for lack of strength or of its resources, but it may very well fall because of the misdirection of its strength and the abuse of its resources.” –Alexis de Tocqueville
Politik pertahanan: bangun angkatan laut yang kokoh untuk melindungi tumpah darah Indonesia.
Orientasi ke laut sejalan dengan budaya ourward looking sejak nenek moyang kita. Ancaman berasal dari luar [Orientasi darat dengan dominasi angkatan darat membuat kita inward looking, cenderung memosisikan ancaman berasal dari dalam konsep teritorial.
Kegiatan transportasi laut global/interna-sional pada awal abad ke-21
Global• Sekitar 90% perdagangan dunia diangkut berbagai sarana
transportasi laut.
• Dewasa ini kegitan global tersebut melibatkan sekitar 60.000 kapal dan 1 juta ABK
Internasional• Sekitar 40% transportasi laut yang melibatkan perekonomian banyak
negara dalam kegiatan perdagangan internasional harus melalui 4 SLOC (Sealanes of Communication) di wilayah Asia Tenggara
Regional• Sekitar 3.000 kapal berbagai ukuran dan jenis harus menggunakan
SLOC Selat Malaka setiap harinya
• Sekitar 1.000 tankers, LNG trains, bulk carriers setiap tahun harus menggunakan 4 SLOC itu.
Sumber: Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, “Bagaimana Memposisikan Wilayah Maritim NKRI dalam Konteks Geostrategi Abad ke-21?” Tinjauan Pembangunan Maritim Indonesia, Edisi II Tahun 2013: Menggapai Negara Maritim, hal. 71.
Menunggu otoritas pengawal laut dan pantai
Selama ini yang sudah ada adalah Kesatuan Penjaga Laut dan Pantai RI (Indonesia Sea and Coast Guard) di bawah Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Laut, Kementerian Perhubungan tidak sesuai dengan yang diemban sebagai otoritas Negara Pantai atau Coastal State.
Karena Ditjen Perhubungan Laut merupakan representasi Indonesia di IMO (International Maritime Organization) di bawah PBB, maka dunia internasional tahunya KPLP adalah coast guard Indonesia. Sedang KPLP di bawah dirjen tidak sesuai sbg Otoritas Negara Pantai yang harus dibentuk berdasar undang-undang dan harus di bawah Presiden sebagai sebuah sistem pemerintahan Negara di laut.
Logistics performance index, 2014, n=160
Source: World Bank, Logistics Performance Index: LPI Results 2014 (http://lpisurvey.worldbank.org/)
CountryLPI
rankLPI
score CustomsInfra-
structureInternational
shipmentsLogistic
competenceTracking &
tracingTime-lines
Singapore 5 4.00 4.01 4.28 3.70 3.97 3.90 4.25
Hong Kong 15 3.83 3.72 3.97 3.58 3.81 3.87 4.00
Malaysia 25 3.59 3.37 3.56 3.64 3.47 3.58 3.92
China 28 3.53 3.21 3.67 3.50 3.46 3.50 3.87
Thailand 35 3.43 3.21 3.40 3.30 3.29 3.45 3.96
Vietnam 48 3.15 2.81 3.11 3.22 3.09 3.19 3.49
Indonesia 53 3.08 2.87 2.92 2.87 3.21 3.11 3.53
India 54 3.08 2.72 2.88 3.20 3.03 3.11 3.51
Philippines 57 3.00 3.00 2.60 3.33 2.93 3.00 3.07
Cambodia 83 2.74 2.67 2.58 2.83 2.67 2.92 2.75
Lao, PDR 131 2.39 2.45 2.21 2.50 2.31 2.20 2.65
Myanmar 145 2.25 1.97 2.14 2.14 2.07 2.36 2.83
LPI Indonesia, 2007-2014Ra
nk
Scor
e
Source: World Bank, Logistics Performance Index: LPI Results 2014 (http://lpisurvey.worldbank.org/)
Public and customers perception improved
Source: JR Lino presentation (IPC) based on World Bank, January 2013.
The sea unites Indonesia
But…. the solution is this!!!
Wujud bersyukur adalah dengan kembali ke jati diri, laut sejahterakan rakyatnya
“Maka ni’mat Tuhan kamu yang manakah yang kamu dustakan?”
(Al-Quran, Surat Ar-Rahman 55: 13, 16, 21, 23, 25, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 45, 47, 51, 53, 55, 57, 59, 61, 63, 65, 67, 69, 71, 73, 75, 77)
Bagian Bagian VIVIPP otret Pendidikan Indonesiaotret Pendidikan Indonesia
Sesat pikir luar biasa
Nyata-nyata bertentangan dengan Undang-Undang No.20/2003 Pasal 4 ayat 1: Perlakuan diskriminatif antara sekolah/guru negeri. Harusnya pendekatan fungsi, bukan status.
Dikerangkeng oleh birokrasi pendidikan dan pengkotak-kotakan: guru matematika di madrasah dibina oleh Kemenag, di pendidikan umum oleh Kemendikbud.
Kurang guru tapi IKIP dikerdilkan Pendekatan input, bukannya output Kerap jalan pintas Menyamakan guru dan dosen: kementerian Pendidikan
Dasar-Menengah dan Kementerian Pendidikan Tinggi dan Ristek
Pendekatan output ketimbang input
Pemerintah tidak pernah berani menetapkan output yang terukur. UU hanya mencantumkan tujuan yang bersifat normatif.
Output = f (Family, Teachers, School inputs, Peers, Innate ability)
Output: Math, Science, Reading, Problem solving
Knowledge & skills performance of the world’s 15-year-olds students based on PISA surveys
2012Rank
(n=65) Country/Economy 2009 2012 2009 2012 2009 2012
1 Shanghai-China 600 613 556 570 575 580
2 Singapore 562 573 526 542 542 551
3 Hong Kong-China 555 561 533 545 549 555
4 Chinese Taipei 543 560 495 523 520 523
5 Korea 546 554 539 536 538 538
7 Japan 529 536 520 538 539 547
17 Viet Nam n.a. 511 n.a. 508 n.a. 528
50 Thailand 419 427 421 441 425 444
52 Malaysia n.a. 421 n.a. 441 n.a. 420
64 Indonesia 371 375 402 396 383 382
65 Peru 365 368 370 384 369 373
Mathematics Reading Science
Source: OECD, PISA (The Programme for International Student Assessment) database.
Indonesia: deceleration in mathematics performance
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
Coef. S.E.Hong Kong-China 0,3 (0,21)Indonesia -0,7 (0,26)Jordan -0,2 (0,51)Kazakhstan m mLatvia 0,1 (0,20)Liechtenstein 0,3 (0,25)Lithuania 0,7 (0,37)Macao-China 0,4 (0,14)Malaysia m mMontenegro 0,2 (0,31)Peru m mQatar -2,3 (0,21)Romania 0,3 (0,54)Russian Federation 0,1 (0,23)Serbia 0,0 (0,45)Shanghai-China m mSingapore m mChinese Taipei 1,3 (0,52)Thailand 0,2 (0,17)Tunisia 0,3 (0,20)United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m mUruguay -0,6 (0,18)
Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on mean mathematics performance in PISA 2003 through 2012
Coef. S.E.Hong Kong-China 0,1 (0,19)Indonesia -0,4 (0,25)Jordan -0,6 (0,65)Kazakhstan m mLatvia -0,4 (0,18)Liechtenstein -0,4 (0,18)Lithuania 0,6 (0,55)Macao-China 0,8 (0,23)Malaysia m mMontenegro -0,1 (0,51)Peru 0,0 (0,31)Qatar -2,4 (0,47)Romania 1,2 (0,28)Russian Federation 0,8 (0,19)Serbia -2,0 (0,59)Shanghai-China m mSingapore m mChinese Taipei 1,6 (0,60)Thailand 0,7 (0,20)Tunisia -0,1 (0,30)United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m mUruguay 0,2 (0,28)
Indonesia: deceleration in reading performance
Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on mean reading performance in PISA 2003 through 2012
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
Indonesia: juga kemunduran dalam science
Change between 2006 and 2012
(PISA 2012 - PISA 2006)
Change between 2009 and 2012
(PISA 2012 - PISA 2009)
Annualised change in science across PISA assessments
Score dif. S.E. Score dif. S.E.Annual change S.E.
Hong Kong-China 13 (5,0) 6 (4,3) 2,1 (0,85)Indonesia -12 (7,7) -1 (5,7) -1,9 (1,33)Jordan -13 (5,5) -6 (5,1) -2,1 (0,91)Kazakhstan m m 24 (4,8) 8,1 (1,56)Latvia 13 (5,4) 8 (4,6) 2,0 (0,90)Liechtenstein 3 (6,5) 5 (5,3) 0,4 (1,03)Lithuania 8 (5,1) 4 (4,4) 1,3 (0,94)Macao-China 10 (3,8) 10 (2,4) 1,6 (0,64)Malaysia m m -3 (4,5) -1,4 (1,96)Montenegro -2 (3,8) 9 (3,0) -0,3 (0,64)Peru m m 4 (5,4) 1,3 (1,94)Qatar 34 (3,7) 4 (2,3) 5,4 (0,61)Romania 20 (6,4) 11 (5,1) 3,4 (1,08)Russian Federation 7 (5,8) 8 (4,8) 1,0 (1,00)Serbia 9 (5,8) 2 (4,6) 1,5 (1,03)Shanghai-China m m 6 (4,3) 1,8 (1,50)Singapore m m 10 (2,9) 3,3 (0,93)Chinese Taipei -9 (5,5) 3 (4,0) -1,5 (0,92)Thailand 23 (5,1) 19 (4,6) 3,9 (0,82)Tunisia 13 (5,7) -3 (4,8) 2,2 (1,03)United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m m 10 (5,4) 5,1 (2,75)Uruguay -12 (5,2) -11 (4,3) -2,1 (0,91)
Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
Indonesia: juga mengalami kemunduran dalam science
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012
PISA 2006 PISA 2009 PISA 2012
Mean score S.E.
Mean score S.E.
Mean score S.E.
OECD average 2006 498 (0,5) 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5)OECD average 2009 m m 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5)Hong Kong-China 542 (2,5) 549 (2,8) 555 (2,6)Indonesia 393 (5,7) 383 (3,8) 382 (3,8)Jordan 422 (2,8) 415 (3,5) 409 (3,1)Kazakhstan m m 400 (3,1) 425 (3,0)Latvia 490 (3,0) 494 (3,1) 502 (2,8)Liechtenstein 522 (4,1) 520 (3,4) 525 (3,5)Lithuania 488 (2,8) 491 (2,9) 496 (2,6)Macao-China 511 (1,1) 511 (1,0) 521 (0,8)Malaysia m m 422 (2,7) 420 (3,0)Montenegro 412 (1,1) 401 (2,0) 410 (1,1)Peru m m 369 (3,5) 373 (3,6)Qatar 349 (0,9) 379 (0,9) 384 (0,7)Romania 418 (4,2) 428 (3,4) 439 (3,3)Russian Federation 479 (3,7) 478 (3,3) 486 (2,9)Shanghai-China m m 575 (2,3) 580 (3,0)Singapore m m 542 (1,4) 551 (1,5)Chinese Taipei 532 (3,6) 520 (2,6) 523 (2,3)Thailand 421 (2,1) 425 (3,0) 444 (2,9)Tunisia 386 (3,0) 401 (2,7) 398 (3,5)United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m m 429 (3,3) 439 (3,8)Uruguay 428 (2,7) 427 (2,6) 416 (2,8)
Teachers’ salaries and mathematics performance
Source: OECD, PISA Results in Focus: What 15-year-olds know and what they can do with what they know, Paris, 2013: 27.
Masa depan makin suram
Masa depan kemajuan bangsa ditentukan oleh kemajuan teknologi
Bukan sekedar teknologi, melainkan teknologi masa depan Teknologi masa depan:
• Nanotechnology• Biotechnology• ICT• Green technology
(% of GDP)
Source: World Bank
R&D expenditure
R&D as a percentage of gross domestic product
Source: Battelle, 2014 Global R&D Funding Forecast, December 2013: 6.
Source: INSEAD, The Global Innovation Index 2012.
68.2
64.8 63.5 61.8 61.2 60.5 59.9 58.7 58.7 57.7 56.4 56.2 56.0
53.9
51.7
45.9 45.4 44.4
41.1 39.5 39.3 37.9 37.7 37.4 36.9 36.6 35.7 33.9
29.0 28.1
16.8
Switzerland (1)
Sweden (2)
Singapore (3)
Finland (4)
UK (5)
Netherlands (6)
Denmark (7)
Hong Kong (8)
Ireland (9)
USA (10)
Norway (14)
Germany (15)
Israel (17) Korea (21) Japan (25)
Malaysia (32)
China (34)
UAE (37)
Bahrain (41)
Oman (47)
Saudi Arabia (48)
Russian Federation …
Brunei Darussalam …
South Africa (54)
Thailand (57)
Brazil (58) India (64)
Viet Nam (76)
Philippines (95) Indonesia (100)
Sudan (141)
Global innovation index 2012 (n=141)
Patent applications as % of China’s owned(2012 = 535,313), Indonesia (2011) = 541 (0.13)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
India Malaysia Singapore Thailand Indonesia
Patent applications, residents Patent applications are worldwide patent applications filed through the Patent Cooperation Treaty procedure or with a national patent office for exclusive rights for an invention--a product or process that provides a new way of doing something or offers a new technical solution to a problem. A patent provides protection for the invention to the owner of the patent for a limited period, generally 20 years.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
H index, 1996-2012
( ) RankSource: http://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?area=0&category=0®ion=all&year=all&order=it&min=0&min_type=it
Terima Kasih
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