me quarterly property sentiment report. - me bank€¦ · me quarterly property sentiment report....

ME quarterly property sentiment report.Quarterly insights into how Australians feel about the residential property market.

SECOND SURVEY Q3 2019

• Overall, people feel increasingly neutral about the property market

• House price expectations become more positive

• Affordability and tighter credit policies still top the list of worries, while other perceived worries ease in severity

• More people sit on the fence, and don’t intend to buy or sell over the next 12 months

ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT REPORT | 2

Overall, property sentiment remains stableOverall, ME’s Quarterly Property Sentiment Report shows property market sentiment has remained stable, with respondents still feeling net positive about the market. Sentiment varies by age, property status and property intent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q2 2019 Q3 2019

28

3537

26

33

41

■ Positive ■ Neutral ■ Negative

0% 20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

21

44

35

26

34

40

35

38

27

Owneroccupier

Investor First homebuyer


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

30

36

34

29

33

38

23

47

30

25

46

29

10

57

33

18–24years

25–39years

40–54years

55–74years

75+years


19

30

51

33

23

44

27

49

24


Intend to buy

Intend to sell

Intend to do nothing

0% 20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Figure 1. Overall property sentiment Overall, how do you feel about the property market?

Figure 3. Property sentiment by property statusOverall, how do you feel about the property market?

Figure 2. Property sentiment by age Overall, how do you feel about the property market?

Compared to Q2:18 to 24 years – less feeling positive (42% positive in Q2)25 to 39 years – less feeling positive (42% positive in Q2)40 to 54 years – less feeling negative (32% negative in Q2)55 to 74 years – largely unchanged 75 + years – less feeling negative (22% negative in Q2)

Compared to Q2:OO – more feeling positive (31% positive in Q2)Inv. – less feeling positive (44% positive in Q2)FHB – largely unchanged

Compared to Q2:Intend to buy – more feeling neutral (23% neutral in Q2)Intend to sell – more feeling positive (33% positive in Q2)Intend to do nothing – largely unchanged

Figure 4. Property sentiment by property intentionsOverall, how do you feel about the property market?


House price expectations become more positiveOverall, fewer respondents are predicting house price drops over the next 12 months; however expectations vary based on property status and location.

■ Up ■ Down ■ Stay the same ■ Not sure

11

2928

32

1714

30

38

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q2 2019 Q3 2019

Figure 5. Overall house price expectationsWhat do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?

15

33

14

38

12

32

19

37

14

24

22

40

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


Owneroccupier


Figure 6. House price expectations by property statusWhat do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?

Compared to Q2:OO – biggest positive shift in predictions (27% ‘up’ in Q2 and 27% ‘down’ in Q2)Inv. – second biggest positive shift in predictions (32% ‘up’ in Q2 and 30% ‘down’ in Q2)FHB – fewer are predicting price drops (29% ‘down’ in Q2) but relatively same amount predicting up (38% ‘up’ in Q2)


918

5017

33

50

3317

45

365

14

30

4515

10

44

2215

19

38

2718

17

32

3322

13

3637


NT Metro

ACT

VIC Metro

WA Metro

TAS Metro

NSW Metro

QLD Metro

SA Metro

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Figure 7. House price expectations by stateWhat do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?

Across all states and territories except ACT, fewer people are predicting price falls, and in some locations, more are predicting price rises. Q2 figures below: ACT - 32% predicted prices would go up, 6% predicted prices would go down

NT - 40% predicted prices would go up, 40% predicted prices would go down

TAS - 50% predicted prices would go up, 20% predicted prices would go down

SA - 36% predicted prices would go up, 21% predicted prices would go down

WA - 21% predicted prices would go up, 26% predicted prices would go down

QLD - 36% predicted prices would go up, 24% predicted prices would go down

VIC - 33% predicted prices would go up, 36% predicted prices would go down

NSW - 24% predicted prices would go up, 41% predicted prices would go down


Property intentionsME asked respondents in the property market what their property plans are over the next 12 months; compared to April 2019, more respondents now plan to do nothing.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

■ To buy property ■ To sell property ■ Neither buy nor sell property

12

34

58

11

31

63

Q2 2019 Q3 2019

Figure 8. Overall property plansWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?

Figure 10. Property plans by incomeWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?

50

13

45

50

10

44

66

11

29

78

11

15

88

610

18–24years

25–39years

40–54years

55–74years

75+years

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


70

24

67

79

29

65

12

28

57

13

38

51

17

45

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

120%

100%

Under $50,000

$50,001 to $75,000

$75,001 to $100,000

$100,001 to $125,000

Over $125,000


6

Figure 9. Property plans by age What are your property plans in the next 12 months?

Compared to Q2:18 to 24 years – more intend to sell (6% intended to sell property in Q2)25 to 39 years – more intend to do nothing (38% intended to do nothing in Q2)40 to 54 years – more intend to do nothing (62% intended to do nothing in Q2)55 to 74 years – largely unchanged 75 + years – more intend to buy (5% intended to buy property in Q2)

Compared to Q2:Under 50K – less intend to buy and more intend to sell (26% intended to buy property and 6% intended to sell property in Q2)50K to 75K – more intend to do nothing (53% intended to do nothing in Q2)75K to 100K – more intend to do nothing (59% intended to do nothing in Q2)100K to 125K – more intend to do nothing (54% intended to do nothing in Q2)Over 125K – more intend to buy and more intend to sell (43% intended to buy property and 14% intended to sell property in Q2)


71

13

24

42

27

44

56

2

42

Owneroccupier



0% 20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Compared to Q2:OO – a few more intend to buy and sell (22% intended to buy property and 11% intended to sell in Q2)Inv. – more intend to sell or do nothing (23% intended to sell and 39% intended to do nothing in Q2)FHB – more intend to buy (38% intended to buy property in Q2)

Figure 11. Property plans by property status What are your property plans in the next 12 months?


Effect on financesAcross household finances, changes in house prices are having negative and positive effects.

27%net negative 1% 28%




36%21%

38%21%

net positive 15%

net positive 17%



net negative 4% 27% 23%net positive 4%22% 26%

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

Sense of wealth

Willingness to spend on discretionary items like entertainment or eating out

Savings behaviour

General financial confidence

Debt situation

■ Negative ■ Positive

Figure 12. Overall effect on finances*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on these aspects of your financial situation?

26 28 20 23 37 34

0%

20%

40%

10%

30%

■ Owner occupier ■ Investor ■ First home buyer

Positive Negative

26 31 24 26 34 39

0%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%


Positive Negative

Figure 13. Sense of wealth by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?

Figure 14. General financial confidence by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?

Compared to Q2:OO – more positive (23% positive in Q2)Inv. – more negative (29% negative in Q2)FHB – more negative (31% negative in Q2)

Compared to Q2:OO – more positive (22% positive in Q2)Inv. – more negative (31% negative in Q2)FHB – more negative (33% negative in Q2)


21 26 19 27 36 41

0%

60%

40%

20%

50%

30%

10%


Positive Negative

33 39 47

19 28 20


Positive Negative0%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

26 32 26 20 30 24

0%

40%

20%

10%

30%


Positive Negative

Figure 15. Willingness to spend on discretionary items by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?

Figure 17. Savings behaviour by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?

Figure 16. Debt situation by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?

Compared to Q2:OO – largely unchangedInv. – more negative (33% negative in Q2)FHB – more negative (32% negative in Q2)

Compared to Q2:OO – more positive (29% positive in Q2)Inv. – more negative (24% negative in Q2)FHB – more positive (40% positive in Q2)

Compared to Q2:OO – more positive (20% positive in Q2)Inv. – more positive (30% positive in Q2)FHB –more positive (17% positive in Q2)

* Respondents had the choice of answering positive, negative or neutral. We have removed neutral responses from the chart for the sake of simplicity’ to bottom of chart.


Perceived worries and opportunitiesThere are still perceived worries among people in the property market, however, most worries have eased in severity over the last quarter.

net disagree 4% 52% 48%net disagree 18% 59% 41%

net agree 36%32% 68%net agree 16%42%

51%

58%

net disagree 2% 49%

net disagree 16% 42%58%

■ Disagree ■ Agree

net agree 24%38% 62%net agree 14%43% 57%

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3

I’m worried falling property prices mean I owe more on a property than it’s worth

I’m worried about the value of my property falling

I’m worried I’ll soon be forced to switch from an ‘interest only’ to‘principal and interest’ home loan, increasing my loan repayments

I’m worried tighter credit policies will mean it’s more di�cult to refinance my loan

Figure 18. Overall worries and opportunities for property ownersDo you agree or disagree with the following statements?

54 6846 32

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Agree Disagree

■ Owner occupier ■ Investor

Figure 19. ‘I’m worried about the value of my property falling’ by property statusDo you agree or disagree?

Compared to Q2:OO – less worried (60% agreed in Q2)Inv. – more worried (64% agreed in Q2)

54 7046 30

0%

100%

40%

20%

60%

80%

Agree Disagree


Figure 20. ‘I’m worried tighter credit policies will mean it’s more difficult to refinance my loan’ by property statusDo you agree or disagree?

Compared to Q2:OO – less worried (62% agreed in Q2) Inv. – less worried (74% agreed in Q2)


40 4960 51

Agree Disagree


0%

100%

40%

20%

60%

80%

Figure 22. ‘I’m worried I’ll soon be forced to switch from an ‘interest only’ to ‘principal and interest’ home loan, increasing my loan repayments’ by property statusDo you agree or disagree?

Compared to Q2:OO – less worried (52% agreed in Q2)Inv. – less worried (74% agreed in Q2)

59%

7% 93%

net agree 18%

39% 61%

■ Disagree ■ Agree

Despite price falls in some areas, I still think housing a�ordability is a big issue in Australia

I’m happy that property prices are falling because it increases my chances of buying a property

Q3

Q2

Q3

net agree 76%

net agree 86%

net agree 22%

41%

12% 88%Q2

Figure 23. Overall property market worries and opportunitiesDo you agree or disagree with the following statements?

40 52 60 48

0%

100%

60%

20%

40%

80%

Agree Disagree


Figure 21. ‘I’m worried falling property prices mean I owe more on a property than it’s worth’ by property statusDo you agree or disagree?

Compared to Q2:OO – less worried (45% agreed in Q2)Inv. – less worried (53% agreed in Q2)


45 54 86 55 46

140%

Agree Disagree


0%

100%

40%

20%

60%

80%

93 91 92

7 9 80%

100%

40%

60%

80%

20%

Agree Disagree


Figure 24. ‘I’m happy that property prices are falling because it increases my chances of buying a property’ by property statusDo you agree or disagree?

Figure 25. ‘Despite price falls in some areas, I still think housing affordability is a big issue in Australia’ by property statusDo you agree or disagree?

Compared to Q2:OO – more happy (42% agreed in Q2)Inv. – less happy (59% agreed in Q2)FHB – no change

Compared to Q2:OO – more agreed (87% agreed in Q2) Inv. – more agreed (83% agreed in Q2) FHB – less agreed (94% agreed in Q2)

About this reportThe ME Quarterly Property Sentiment Report provides timely insights into the sentiment of Australians towards the residential property market based on a survey of 1,000 Australian adults in the property market who do not work in the market research or public relations industries.

The survey is designed, developed and produced quarterly by industry super fund-owned bank ME with fieldwork conducted by Pure Profile.

This edition presents the findings from the second edition – Q3 of the 2019 calendar year, conducted at the start of July 2019. It also compares findings from the first edition – Q2 of the calendar year, conducted at the end of April 2019.

Over time, the report will track changes in property sentiment and in doing so, highlights the ongoing – and potentially shifting – differences between ages, locations, property status, intentions and experiences in terms of:

• overall property market sentiment• price expectations• impacts on future property plans • impacts on finances, wealth, and savings behaviour • perceived worries and opportunities For analysis, the sample is broken down into investors, owner occupiers and first home buyers in the following proportions to provide accurate results within each cohort:

• 500 – Owner occupied property owners• 300 – Investment property owners• 200 – First home buyersThe data has been weighted to be nationally representative across age, gender, and location.


For further information.Matthew Read Head of Public Relations

T 0432 130 338 E [email protected]

Georgia Dossetor Consumer PR Manager

T 0438 904 735 E [email protected]

Level 28, 360 Elizabeth Street Melbourne, VIC 3000 Australia

mebank.com.au

■ Under $50,000 ■ $50,001–75,000■ $75,001–$100,000 ■ $100,001–$125,000

■ Over $125,001

16%

32%

20%19%

14%

■ NSW metro ■ NSW regional ■ VIC metro■ VIC regional ■ QLD metro ■ QLD regional■ WA metro ■ WA regional ■ SA metro

■ SA regional ■ ACT ■ TAS metro■ TAS regional ■ NT metro

21%

13%

20%8%

10%

9%

8%

2%6%

1%1%

1%

1%

1%

Personal income before tax Location

■ Male ■ Female

49%51%

■ 18–24 years ■ 25–39 years ■ 40–54 years■ 55–74 years ■ 75+ years

13%5%

30%

26%

26%

Gender Age

Breakdown of survey respondents by gender, age, location, and income.

me quarterly property sentiment report. - me bank€¦ · me quarterly property sentiment report....

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