mcw national assessment october 25 2012
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National Polling AssessmentOctober 25 2012
53%53%Wrong TrackWrong Track
Right Direction/Wrong Track:
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Just over half of voters believe we’re on the wrong track…
Mercury. 2
CBS News poll, conducted October 17-20, 2012 n=1383 LVs, MoE = ± 3%
49%49%ApproveApprove
Obama Job ApprovalHow would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president: Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?
…and Obama’s approval rating is at or near 50%...
Mercury. 3
NBC/WSJ poll, conducted October 17-20, 2012 n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
52%52%FavorableFavorable
(net +6)(net +6)
Obama FavorableIs your overall opinion of Barack Obama very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
…while his favorability edge over Romney…
Mercury. 4
ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=1376 LVs, MoE = ± 3%
50%50%FavorableFavorable
(net +3)(net +3)
Romney Favorable
…has disappeared in the last month of the campaign.
Mercury. 5
Is your overall opinion of Mitt Romney very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=1376 LVs, MoE = ± 3%
RCP Average
Mitt Romney has a narrow lead in national polling…
Mercury. 6
47.147.1 -- 47.747.7
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Recent Polls
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Source: Gallup.com
Intrade: Obama Re-Election
…though markets still favor Obama. Why the disparity?
Mercury. 7
59.7%59.7%October 25October 25
Electoral College OutlookElectoral College Outlook
Because Romney faces tough odds if he cannot win Ohio.
Mercury. 8
Obama
196 EVs+
New Mexico (5)+
Michigan (16)+
Pennsylvania (20)-------------------------
-237 EVs
Romney
159 EVs+
Arizona (11)+
Missouri (10)+
Indiana (11)+
North Carolina (15)-------------------------
-206 EVs
270 Needed to Win | Swing States in Purple270 Needed to Win | Swing States in Purple
RCP Average - OH
47.9 47.9 -- 45.845.8
Key Ohio Numbers at a Glance
Mercury. 9
Intrade
60.0%60.0%Obama VictoryObama Victory
2008 Results
52% 52% -- 47%47%
18 EVs18 EVsRCP Average
(Senate)
47.4 47.4 -- 42.242.2
Sherrod Brown (inc.) Josh Mandel
50%50%FavorableFavorable
(net +4)(net +4)
Obama Favorable
Romney has closed the favorability gap in Ohio…
Mercury.10
50%50%FavorableFavorable
(net +5)(net +5)
Romney Favorable
Ohio
Suffolk University poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=600 LVs, MoE = ± 4%
…but not yet enough to overtake Obama.
Mercury.11
2012 Ballot
47% 47% -- 47%47%
Ohio
Suffolk University poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=600 LVs, MoE = ± 4%
RCP Average - VA
48.0 48.0 -- 48.048.0
Key Virginia Numbers at a Glance
Mercury.12
Intrade
54.1%54.1%Romney VictoryRomney Victory
2008 Results
53% 53% -- 46%46%
RCP Average (Senate)
47.047.0 - - 46.046.0
13 13 EVsEVs
Tim Kaine George Allen
50%50%FavorableFavorable
(net +2)(net +2)
Obama Favorable
Virginia is a similar story…
Mercury.13
50%50%FavorableFavorable
(net +3)(net +3)
Romney Favorable
Virginia
Mellman Group poll for Americans United for Change, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=800 LVs, MoE = ± 3.5%
…though Obama trails in only few polls.
Mercury.14
2012 Ballot
46% 46% -- 45%45%
Virginia
Mellman Group poll for Americans United for Change, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=800 LVs, MoE = ± 3.5%
RCP Average - FL
47.0 47.0 -- 48.748.7
Key Florida Numbers at a Glance
Mercury.15
Intrade
70.2%70.2%Romney VictoryRomney Victory
2008 Results
51% 51% -- 48%48%
RCP Average (Senate)
47.0 47.0 -- 41.541.5
28 EVs28 EVs
Bill Nelson (inc.) Connie Mack IV
51%51%FavorableFavorable
(net +6)(net +6)
Obama Favorable
Romney is starting to run away with Florida…
Mercury.16
55%55%FavorableFavorable
(net +15)(net +15)
Romney Favorable
Florida
FOX News poll, conducted October 17-18, 2012 n=1130 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
…allowing the campaign to focus resources elsewhere.
Mercury.17
2012 Ballot
45% 45% -- 48%48%
Florida
FOX News poll, conducted October 17-18, 2012 n=1130 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
RCP Average - WI
49.5 49.5 -- 46.846.8
Key Wisconsin Numbers at a Glance
Mercury.18
Intrade
71.0%71.0%Obama VictoryObama Victory
2008 Results
56% 56% -- 42%42%
RCP Average (Senate)
46.8 46.8 -- 46.046.0
10 10 EVsEVs
Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson
53%53%FavorableFavorable
(net +9)(net +9)
Obama Favorable
However, Wisconsin remains an uphill battle for Romney…
Mercury.19
47%47%FavorableFavorable
(net +0)(net +0)
Romney Favorable
Wisconsin
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted October 15-17, 2012 n=1013 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
…as Obama continues to lead despite Paul Ryan on the ticket.
Mercury.20
2012 Ballot
51% 51% -- 45%45%
Wisconsin
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted October 15-17, 2012 n=1013 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
RCP Average - NH
48.2 48.2 -- 47.447.4
Key New Hampshire Numbers at a Glance
Mercury.21
Intrade
55.1%55.1%Obama VictoryObama Victory
2008 Results
54% 54% -- 44%44%
4 4 EVsEVs
RCP Average (Senate)
NoneNone
RCP Average - NV
49.5 49.5 -- 46.846.8
Key Nevada Numbers at a Glance
Mercury.22
Intrade
75.1%75.1%Obama VictoryObama Victory
2008 Results
55% 55% -- 43%43%
RCP Average (Senate)
45.845.8 -- 41.0 41.0
6 EVs6 EVs
Dean Heller (inc.) Shelley Berkley
RCP Average - CO
47.6 47.6 -- 47.847.8
Key Colorado Numbers at a Glance
Mercury.23
Intrade
53.4%53.4%Romney VictoryRomney Victory
2008 Results
54% 54% -- 45%45%
RCP Average (Senate)
NoneNone
9 EVs9 EVs
RCP Average - IA
48.8 48.8 -- 46.846.8
Key Iowa Numbers at a Glance
Mercury.24
Intrade
63.0%63.0%Obama VictoryObama Victory
2008 Results
54% 54% -- 44%44%
RCP Average (Senate)
NoneNone
6 EVs6 EVs
State of the SenateState of the Senate
Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOPHawaii(Open)
Connecticut(Open)
Massachusetts(Brown)
Arizona(Open)
Nebraska(Open)
Maine(Open)
Florida(Nelson)
Montana (Tester)
Indiana(Open)
Michigan(Stabenow)
Missouri (McCaskill)
Nevada(Heller)
New Mexico(Open)
Ohio(Brown)
North Dakota(Open)
Virginia(Open)
Wisconsin(Open)
Republicans can pick up one to three Senate seats…
Mercury.25
Latest Senate PollingLatest Senate Polling
Nevada:
Heller (R): 46%Berkley (D): 40%
(SurveyUSA, 10/11-15, n=806 LV)
Montana:
Tester (D): 48%Rehberg (R): 48%
(Rasmussen, 10/14, n=500 LV)
Wisconsin:
Baldwin (D): 47%Thomspon (R): 45%
(Mason-Dixon, 10/15-17, n=625 LV)
Missouri:
McCaskill (D): 51%Akin (R): 45%
(Rasmussen, 9/2, n=500 LV)
Virginia:
Kaine (D): 49%Allen (R): 48%
(Rasmussen, 10/18, n=500LV)
Massachusetts:
Brown (R): 44%Warren (D): 50%
(WBUR/MassINC, 10/21-22, n=516 LV)
… though control of the chamber requires running the table.
Mercury.26
Connecticut:
Murphy (D): 49%McMahon (R): 43%
(Quinnipiac, 10/9-22, n=1412 LV)
Florida:
Nelson (D): 45%Mack (R): 41%
(PPP, 10/17-18, n=800 LV)
North Dakota:
Heitkamp (D): 40%Berg (R): 50%
(Forum/Essman, 10/12-15, n=500 LV)
Mercury.27
National Polling AssessmentOctober 25 2012
Kieran MahoneyCEO
New York, NY | [email protected]
Kirill GoncharenkoPresident
New York, NY | [email protected]
Senator James TalentCo-Chairman
Washington, DC| [email protected]
Hon. Fernando FerrerCo-Chairman
New York, NY | [email protected]
Hon. Fabian NunezPartner
Sacramento, CA| [email protected]
Hon. Max SandlinCo-Chairman
Washington, DC | [email protected]
Thomas DohertyPartner
Albany, NY | [email protected]
Michael McKeonPartner
New York, NY | [email protected]
Adam MendelsohnPartner
Sacramento, CA| [email protected]
Michael DuHaimePartner
Westfield, NJ| [email protected]
Hon. Vin WeberPartner
Washington, DC | [email protected]