mba final sem project report
TRANSCRIPT
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A STUDY ON THE ANALYSIS OF VOLATILITY OF REALTY
SECTOR SCRIPS INCLUDED IN SENSEX
By
Your Name
(REG NO. ----------------)
A PROJECT REPORT
Submitted to the
FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree
of
MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
IN FINANCE
COLLEGE NAME
UNIVERSITY NAME
CITYPONCODEMONTHYEAR
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BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project report entitled A study on the analysis
Volatility of Reality sector Scrips included in the Sensex is a
bonafide work done by Mr. YOUR NAME
(Reg. No. -----------) and a student of M.B.A in COLLEGE NAME
FACULTY GUIDE HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT
Assessed by
INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNAL EXAMINER
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ABSTRACT
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapt
eNo.
PageNo.
1 Introduction
1.1. Research Background 7
1.2. Identified Problem 8
1.3. Need for the Study 8
1.4. Objective of Study 9
1.5. Scope of Study 9
1.6. Deliverables 92 Literature Survey
2.1 Review of Literature 11-15
2.2 Research Gap 16
3 Methodology
3.1 Type of project 19
3.2 Target respondents 19
3.3 Assumptions, Limitations and constraints 20
3.4 Sampling Methods 203.5. Data Analysis 21
3.6. Tools for Analysis 22
4 Data Analysis and Interpretation
Analysis and Interpretation 23-46
5 Results of the Study
5.1 Summary of findings 48-50
5.2 Suggestion and Recommendations 51
5.3 Conclusions 52Appendix 53-52
References 63
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
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INTRODUCTION
1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUNDDESCRIPTION OF REALTY INDUSTRY
Volatility is a measure of a security's stability. It is calculated as the standard
deviation from a certain continuously compounded return over a given period of
time. It is an important measure in quantifying risk; for example, a security with a
volatility of 50% is considered very high risk because it has the potential to
increase or decrease up to half its value.
Volatility in investing is a stock's ability to change. Stocks with high
volatility are those that can easily change in price (greatly and quickly), meaning
that they are easily affected. Securities with lower volatility are more resistant to
change, and they tend to have a stable course. With great potential for return,
volatile stock is also accompanied by much risk. Generally, securities that trade
with volatility often fluctuate greatly over short periods of time, as it takes very
little to affect the prices of these shares. When the price jumps up and down, short-
term trading opportunities that allow investors to buy during dips and sell when
price bounces up arise.
http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Securityhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Continuously+Compoundedhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Returnhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Returnhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Riskhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/valuehttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/valuehttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Riskhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Returnhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Continuously+Compoundedhttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Security -
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Volatility may influence the type of investments one makes: one may
directly invest in non-volatile securities, such as a certificate of deposit, but highly
volatile securities lend themselves more to short selling and other forms of
hedging. The volatility of a stock relative to the overall market is known as its beta,
and the volatility triggered by internal factors, regardless of the market, is known
as a stock's alpha.
Bombay Stock Exchange abbreviated as BSE is the oldest stock exchange in Asia.
It is the first stock exchange in India and second stock exchange all over the world
to obtain an ISO 9001:2000 certifications. There are total of 22 stock exchanges in
India. Among all the 22 stock exchanges BSE is the first one to be recognized and
had the authority of getting permanent recognition. It was established in 1875.It is
the largest stock exchange with over 6000 stocks listed. Bombay Stock Exchange
Limited is located at Dalal Street, Mumbai, India.
http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Investmentshttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Certificate+of+Deposithttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Short+Sellinghttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Hedginghttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Hedginghttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Short+Sellinghttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Certificate+of+Deposithttp://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Investments -
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1.2 IDENTIFIED PROBLEM
When the stock markets had touched the 20,000 levels in January 2008, it was the
realty sector, which led the rally and at that time, almost all the stocks, from all the
groups, went top gainers every day.
And then the markets fell and along with the index, the realty stocks fell like nine
pins. The same realty stocks, which led the index some time ago, were now
amongst the top losers.
This rise and fall of the realty stocks, along with the rise and fall of the index made
it very interesting. We wanted to learn why the realty stocks had so much hold
over the markets and thus decided to do an in-depth analysis of the frontline listed
stocks in Indian realty sector and which would help us to understand the volatility
of the Realty sector and its significant growth which helps to ascertain the future
trends in the BSE Sensex.
1.3 NEED FOR THE STUDY
SENSEX is regarded to be the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest
index in the country, the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most
prominent brands in the country.
The need of the study is to know about the volatile movements of the realty scrips
included in SENSEX. The study tries to analyze the systematic risk using beta. It
also attempts to find out the systematic risk, the market return and security returns.
The study also forecasts the return of the realty scrips and also shows the
correlation between the SENSEX and Realty scrips
1.4OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
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PRIMARY OBJECTIVE:
To study the volatility of realty sector top 10 scrips included in SENSEX
SECONDARY OBJECTIVES:
To calculate the return on the select scrips for the study period.
To analyse the risk using beta.
To forecast the return in the realty scrips.
To find out the correlation between BSE SENSEXand the select realty scrips.
1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This study helps us to understand the volatility of the Realty sector and its
significant growth which helps to ascertain the future trends in the BSE Sensex.
Recently the Reserve Bank of India has reduced the interest rate for housing loans.
This study is conducted with the price volatility in Real estate sector during the
period of 14 month.
A review and assessment of the current condition and future prospects of a given
sector of the economy. Sector analysis serves to provide an investor with an idea of
how well a given group of companies are expected to perform as a whole.
1.6 DELIVERABLES
This study will help to understand the volatility of the Realty sector and its
significant growth which helps to ascertain the future trends in the BSE Sensex.
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.
CHAPTER 2
LITERERATURE SURVEY
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2.1 REVIEW OF LITERATURE
A review and assessment of the current condition and future prospects of a givensector of the economy. Sector analysis serves to provide an investor with an idea of
how well a given group of companies are expected to perform as a whole.
Grewal S.S and NavjotGrewall (1984) revealed some basic investment
rules and rules for selling shares. They warned the investors not to buy unlisted
shares, as Stock Exchanges do not permit trading in unlisted shares. Another rulethat they specify is not to buy inactive shares, ie, shares in which transactions take
place rarely. The main reason why shares are inactive is because there are no
buyers for them. They are mostly shares of companies, which are not doing well.
A third rule according to them is not to buy shares in closely-held companies
because these shares tend to be less active than those of widely held ones since
they have a fewer number of shareholders. They caution not to hold the shares for
a long period, expecting a high price, but to sell whenever one earns a reasonable
reward.
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Jack Clark Francis (1986) revealed the importance of the rate of return in
investments and reviewed the possibility of default and bankruptcy risk. He opined
that in an uncertain world, investors cannot predict exactly what rate of return an
investment will yield. However he suggested that the investors can formulate a
probability distribution of the possible rates of return. He also opined that an
investor who purchases corporate securities must face the possibility of default and
bankruptcy by the issuer. Financial analysts can foresee bankruptcy. He disclosed
some easily observable warnings of a firm's failure, which could be noticed by the
investors to avoid such a risk.
PreethiSingh(1986) disclosed the basic rules for selecting the company to
invest in. She opined that understanding and measuring return m d risk is
fundamental to the investment process. According to her, most investors are 'risk
averse'. To have a higher return the investor has to face greater risks. She
concludes that risk is fundamental to the process of investment. Every investor
should have an understanding of the various pitfalls of investments. The investor
should carefully analyze the financial statements with special reference to
solvency, profitability, EPS, and efficiency of the company.
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David.L.Scott and William Edward (1990) reviewed the important risks
of owning common stocks and the ways to minimize these risks. They commented
that the severity of financial risk depends on how heavily a business relies on debt.
Financial risk is relatively easy to minimize if an investor sticks to the common
stocks of companies that employ small amounts of debt.
They suggested that a relatively easy way to ensure some degree of liquidity
is to restrict investment in stocks having a history of adequate trading volume.
Investors concerned about business risk can reduce it by selecting common stocks
of firms that are diversified in several unrelated industries.
Lewis Mandell (1992) reviewed the nature of market risk, which according
to him is very much 'global'. He revealed that certain risks that are so global that
they affect the entire investment market. Even the stocks and bonds of the well-
managed companies face market risk. He concluded that market risk is influencedby factors that cannot be predicted accurately like economic conditions, political
events, mass psychological factors, etc. Market risk is the systemic risk that affects
all securities simultaneously and it cannot be reduced through diversification.
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Nabhi Kumar Jain (1992) specified certain tips for buying shares for
holding and also for selling shares. He advised the investors to buy shares of a
growing company of a growing industry. Buy shares by diversifying in a number
of growth companies operating in a different but equally fast growing sector of the
economy. He suggested selling the shares the moment company has or almost
reached the peak of its growth. Also, sell the shares the moment you realise you
have made a mistake in the initial selection of the shares. The only option to
decide when to buy and sell high priced shares is to identify the individual merit or
demerit of each of the shares in the portfolio and arrive at a decision.
Carter Randal (1992) offered to investors the underlying principles of
winning on the stock market. He emphasized on long-term vision and a plan to
reach the goals. He advised the investors that to be successful, they should never
be pessimists. He revealed that though there has been a major economic crisis
almost every year, it remains true that patient investors have consistently made
money in the equities market. He concluded that investing in the stock market
should be an un-emotional endeavor and suggested that investors should own a
stock if they believe it would perform well.
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L.C. Gupta (1992) revealed the findings of his study that there is existence
of wild speculation in the Indian stock market. The over speculative character of
the Indian stock market is reflected in extremely high concentration of the market
activity in a handful of shares to the neglect of the remaining shares and absolutely
high trading velocities of the speculative counters.
He opined that, short- term speculation, if excessive, could lead to "artificial
price". An artificial price is one which is not justified by prospective earnings,
dividends, financial strength and assets or which is brought about by speculators
through rumors, manipulations, etc. He concluded that such artificial prices are
bound to crash sometime or other as history has repeated and proved.
Yasaswy N.J. (1993) disclosed how 'turnaround stocks' offer big profits to
bold investors and also the risks involved in investing in such stocks. Turnaround
stocks are stocks with extraordinary potential and are relatively under priced at agiven point of time. He also revealed that when the economy is in recession and
the fundamentals are weak, the stock market, being a barometer of the economy,
also tends to be depressed. A depressed stock market is an ideal hunting ground
for 'bargain hunters', who are aggressive investors. Sooner or later recovery takes
place which may take a very long time. He concluded that the investors' watch
work is 'caution' as he may lose if the turnaround strategy does not work out as
anticipated.
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Sunil Damodaro (1993) evaluated the 'Derivatives' especially the 'futures'
as a tool for short-term risk control. He opined that derivatives have become an
indispensable tool for finance managers whose prime objective is to manage or
reduce the risk inherent in their portfolios.
Charles Schwab(2000) revealed very practical, authoritative and easy-to-follow
tips and Suggestions for good investment in the stock market. According to him
growth is the heart of successful l investment. He suggested that before investing,
one should be clear about the goal.. He opined that the biggest risk is not in
investing but in doing nothing and watching inflation eating away the savings.
Avery useful suggestion of the author is not to draw upon the income
from investment but to reinvest it. A low risk approach will yield low return. So
the author urged the investor to be aggressive, subject to his personal limits.
CRISIL Report on Risk Management (2000) stated that the loss potential frommarket risk will increase in the absence of strong risk management tools. The
banks which adopt a pro-active approach to upgrading risk management skills
which are currently unsophisticated as compared to internationally best practices,
would have a competitive edge in future. The report commented that in the
increasingly deregulated and competitive environment, the risk management
strategies of banks would hold the key to differentiation in their credit worthiness.
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Raghavan R.S.(2000) reviewed the need for a riskmanagement system, which
should be a daily practice in banks. Heopined that bank management should take
upon in serious terms, risk
management systems, which should be a daily practice in theiroperations. He is
very much sure that the task is of very highmagnitude, the commitment to the
exercise should be visible, failure
may be suicidal as we are exposed to market risks at internationallevel, which is
not under our control as it was in the insulated economytill sometime back.
Suresh.G.Lalwani and RavindraGersappa (2000)emphasised the need for a
greater consciousness of the risks attachedto a fixed income securities portfolio, as
the market in a situation ofcrunch can suddenly turn illiquid. Some concrete steps
to put in placea mechanism to evaluate and seek to control the market risk would
benecessary. They opined that the pursuit of profits often leads to adegree of
recklessness that conveniently disregards the direct
correlation between risk and profits. They concluded that a riskmanagement
mechanism could be looked as a tool to instil discipline inany trading activity. It is
a surveillance tool for constant monitoring ofthe market prices so as to forewarn
against the unacceptable levels of
risk on positions maintained.
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From the review of literature it is obvious that emotions rulethe market, but
whether emotional buying and selling are influencedby factors like experience in
the stock market operations remains to beanswered. Though it is generallyaccepted that fund is diverted fromthe stock market to other avenues of investment,
studies are to beconducted to reveal whether funds are diverted or not and the
reasonsfor diverting the funds and whether funds are diverted both from
theprimary market and secondary market etc. The effect of volatility ondiversion
of funds is also to be enquired into.
Investors select a particular type of share like growth share,income share etc.
according to their preferences, but the questionwhether experience in stock market
operations has any influence on
the type of share they select is to be explored.
The review of literature has brought to light that there existswild speculation in
Indian stock markets. But whether speculationleads to diverting funds from the
stock market or not raises a bigquestion mark.
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The review of literature reveals that recently no study hasbeen undertaken in
Kerala on risk management in investment incorporate securities. Scholars havecontributed much to the theoriesrelated to risks like risk return relationship,
expected value, risk anduncertainty, attitude towards risk, EVA (Economic Value
Added) etc.But there is lack of studies on the objectives behind investment
incorporate securities, the types of shares that the investors like to invest
in, the precautions they take against risks, how they manage a crisiswhile operating
in securities market, the gender differences inhandling risks, etc.
There are theories like the Fundamental analysis, Technicalanalysis etc. to evaluate
the securities. To what extent these theoriesare applied is another question to be
resolved.
Keeping in mind, these unresolved, inadequately explainedand insufficiently
explored issues, the present study has beenundertaken.
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CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
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3.1TYPE OF PROJECT
A Study of the analysis of volatility of Realty Sector scrips included in the
SENSEX.
Research is basically of two types
Exploratory Research
It seeks to discover new relationships. They are drawn from ideas developed in the
previous research studies are drawn from theory.
Descriptive Research
It helps executives to choose among the various course of action. A descriptive
study attempts to obtain a complete and accurate description of a situation.
RESEARCH DESIGN:
Research design Definition as A research design is the arrangement of condition
for collection and analyses of data in a manner that aims to combine relevant to
research purpose with economic in procedure.
The research design followed for this study is Analytical research design.
This type of research uses information which is already available for analyzing the
collected data.
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3.2 TARGET RESPONDENTS
Since this project used is mainly secondary in nature, as the facts are collectedfrom the already published data. Such as websites, newspaper and company annual
report.
3.3ASSUMPTIONS, CONSTRAINTS AND LIMITATIONS
This study is focused only on Real estate sector companies. Due to time constraints the figure available only for the 14 months. Since the analysis has been constructed on the basis of data available, the
inherent limitations of index report are the limitations of the analysis.
The data is limited to the constraints of Sensex market only. The protection made for future is not stable relatively it will change
accordingly.
Findings of the study are based on the historical data. Hence the accuracycant be ascertained.
The Study is restricted to investors based in Chennai.
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3.4SAMPLING METHODS
3.4.1 Population Size
For the study 10 Realty Sector companies have been selected. All the companies
are the majorplayers in the economy and are part of Sensex.
3.4.2 Sample Technique
The current study requires no sampling techniques. All the 10 Realty Sector
companies in theBombay Stock Exchange Sensex which appear from Jan 2011 to
June 2012 are selected.
3.4.3 Sample description
List of 10 Companies in Sensex from Reality sector
Code Name Sector
515055 Anant Raj industries Reality
533160 DB Reality Reality
532868 DLF Reality
532873 HDIL (Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd ) Reality
532799 Hub Town Reality
532832 Indiabulls Real Estate Reality
533273 Oberoi Reality Reality
532780 Parsvnath Developers Reality533274 Prestige Estate Projects Reality
532784 Sobha Developer Reality
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3.5DATA PROCESSING
Secondary data:
Secondary data is information that already exists somewhere, having been
collected for specific purpose in the study.
Secondary data can be collected from various books, websites and from
company brochures. For the purpose of this study, the data used is mainly
secondary in nature, as the facts are collected from the already published data.
Such as websites, newspaper and company annual report.
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3.6TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS
Financial tools:
1. Return analysis:
Security return = This months closing price Last months closing
price * 100
Last months closing price
Market return = This months closing index price Last months
closing index price * 100
Last months closing index price
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2. Beta analysis: = nxy-(x)(y)
n (x^2)-(y^2)
3. Alpha analysis: = y x
4. Co-efficient correlation:
r = nxy-(x)(y)
n x2-(yx)2 ny2-(y)2
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CHAPTER 4
DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
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DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
RETURN ANALYSIS
CALCULATION OF MARKET AND SECURITY RETURN
Security Return = Todays PriceYesterdays Price *100
Yesterdays Price
Market Return = Todays Index Yesterdays Index *100
Yesterdays Index
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4.1.1 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON ANANT RAJ
INDUSTRIES
MONTHBSE SENSEX
ANANTRAJ
SCRIPX Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
April -13 17,236.18 47.45 (1.1119) (1.1458)
March-13 17,429.98 48.00 7.4695 4.2345
Feb - 13 16,218.53 46.05 (6.3531) (20.6034)
Jan -13 17,318.81 58.00 (0.4906) (0.8547)
Dec -12 17,404.20 58.50 (1.9630) (11.0266)
Nov-12 17,752.68 65.75 3.2520 8.0526
Oct-12 17,193.55 60.85 11.2497 53.0818
Sept -12 15,454.92 39.75 (4.1464) (11.8625)
Aug-12 16,123.46 45.10 (8.9328) (16.4041)
July-12 17,705.01 53.95 7.6046 (6.7416)
June12 16,453.76 57.85 (1.3371) (11.1367)
May12 16,676.75 65.10 (8.3554) (20.2694)
April -12 18,197.20 81.65 (3.4420) 28.5827
March12 18,845.87 63.50 1.8515 (7.2993)
Feb - 12 18,503.28 68.50 (3.3062) (22.3356)Jan -12 19,135.96 88.20 (1.5904) 5.8824
Dec -11 19,445.22 83.30 9.0994 10.4042
Nov-11 17,823.40 75.45 (2.7519) (25.0745)
Oct-11 18,327.76 100.70 (10.6359) (6.1510)
Sept -11 20,509.09 107.30 5.0603 (3.8961)
Aug-11 19,521.25 111.65 (2.5513) (14.0162)
Julyt-11 20,032.34 129.85 (0.1833) (7.5472)
June11 20,069.12 140.45 11.6743 10.6777
May11 17,971.12 126.9 0.5755 6.015017,868.29 119.7
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4.1.1 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON ANANT RAJ SCRIP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
MONTH
13-Apr
13-Mar
13-Feb
13-Jan
12-Dec
12-Nov
12-Oct
12-Sep
12-Aug
12-Jul
J
12
ay
12
12-Apr
12-Mar
12-Feb
12-Jan
11-Dec
11-Nov
11-Oct
11-Sep
11-Aug
Julyt-11
J
11
ay
11
Series
Series
Series
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Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in
the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during themonth of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest
returns of 53.0818 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest
returns of -25.0745 during the month of February 2011.The security
return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to
February 2012
.
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4.1.2 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DB
REALITY
MONTH
BSE
SENSEXDB Reality X Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 78.15 (1.1119) (3.5185)
Apl-13 17,429.98 81 7.4695 (7.7449)
Mar-13 16,218.53 87.8 (6.3531) 19.1316
Feb-13 17,318.81 73.7 (0.4906) (13.4977)
Jan-13 17,404.20 85.2 (1.9630) 4.7326
Dec-12 17,752.68 81.35 3.2520 31.2097Nov-12 17,193.55 62 11.2497 25.3792
Oct-12 15,454.92 49.45 (4.1464) (31.3671)
Sep-12 16,123.46 72.05 (8.9328) (0.1386)
Aug-12 17,705.01 72.15 7.6046 45.4637
July-12 16,453.76 49.6 (1.3371) (17.3333)
June-12 16,676.75 60 (8.3554) (23.2737)
May-12 18,197.20 78.2 (3.4420) 11.5549
Apl-12 18,845.87 70.1 1.8515 (9.0201)
Mar-12 18,503.28 77.05 (3.3062) (20.6079)Feb-12 19,135.96 97.05 (1.5904) (18.0667)
Jan-12 19,445.22 118.45 9.0994 8.0255
Dec-11 17,823.40 109.65 (2.7519) (27.8618)
Nov-11 18,327.76 152 (10.6359) (22.2904)
Oct-11 20,509.09 195.6 5.0603 (5.9163)
Sep-11 19,521.25 207.9 (2.5513) (50.3582)
Aug-11 20,032.34 418.8 (0.1833) 3.2163
July-11 20,069.12 405.75 11.6743 (5.4196)
June-11 17,971.12 429 0.5755 0.9056May-11 17,868.29 425.15
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4.1.2 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DB REALITY SCRIP
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MO
NTH
13-May
Ap
l-13
13-
Mar
13-Feb
13
-Jan
12-Dec
12-Nov
12
-Oct
12-Sep
12-Aug
12-Jul
12
-Jun
12-May
Ap
l-12
12-
Mar
12-Feb
12
-Jan
11-Dec
11-Nov
11
-Oct
11-Sep
11-Aug
11-Jul
11
-Jun
11-May
Series2
Series3
Series1
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Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in
the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the
month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest
returns of 45.4637 during the month of October 2011 and the lowest
returns of -50.3582 during the month of November 2010.The security
return has shown an upward movement from August 2011 to October
2011.
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4.1.3 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DLF SCRIPS
MONTH
BSE
SENSEXDLF SCRIP X Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 208.30 (1.1119) 4.9899
Apl-13 17,429.98 198.40 7.4695 7.3593
Mar-13 16,218.53 184.80 (6.3531) (1.1236)
Feb-13 17,318.81 186.90 (0.4906) (7.2457)
Jan-13 17,404.20 201.50 (1.9630) (10.9786)
Dec-12 17,752.68 226.35 3.2520 4.8402
Nov-12 17,193.55 215.90 11.2497 17.9459
Oct-12 15,454.92 183.05 (4.1464) (11.6127)
Sep-12 16,123.46 207.10 (8.9328) (14.4392)
Aug-12 17,705.01 242.05 7.6046 10.7020
Jul-12 16,453.76 218.65 (1.3371) 11.3573
June-12 16,676.75 196.35 (8.3554) (14.9632)
May-12 18,197.20 230.90 (3.4420) 9.6652
Apl-12 18,845.87 210.55 1.8515 (11.7376)
Mar-12 18,503.28 238.55 (3.3062) 7.0211
Feb-12 19,135.96 222.90 (1.5904) (16.5793)Jan-12 19,445.22 267.20 9.0994 26.0080
Dec-11 17,823.40 212.05 (2.7519) (5.2925)
Nov-11 18,327.76 223.90 (10.6359) (23.3088)
Oct-11 20,509.09 291.95 5.0603 (4.9797)
Sep-11 19,521.25 307.25 (2.5513) (12.2394)
Aug-11 20,032.34 350.10 (0.1833) (7.2091)
July-11 20,069.12 377.30 11.6743 25.0373
June-11 17,971.12 301.75 0.5755 0.1494
May-11 17,868.29 301.30
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4.1.3 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DLF SCRIPS
Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month
of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January
2011,-10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 26.0080 during the
month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -23.3088 during the month of
January 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from January
2011 to March 2011.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
BSE SENSEX Rs.
DLF SCRIP Rs.
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4.1.4 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON HDIL SCRIP
MONTHBSE SENSEX HDIL X Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 79.20 (1.1119) (8.9132)
Apl-13 17,429.98 86.95 7.4695 29.0059
Mar-13 16,218.53 67.40 (6.3531) (16.3772)
Feb-13 17,318.81 80.60 (0.4906) (5.6758)
Jan13 17,404.2085.45
(1.9630) (25.2733)
Dec-13 17,752.68 114.35 3.2520 43.7461Nov-12 17,193.55 79.55 11.2497 49.2495
Oct-12 15,454.92 53.30 (4.1464) (12.0462)
Sep12 16,123.4660.60
(8.9328) (39.2786)
Aug-12 17,705.01 99.80 7.6046 1.8367
Jul-12 16,453.76 98.00 (1.3371) (4.2501)
Jun-12 16,676.75 102.35 (8.3554) (28.1754)
May-12 18,197.20 142.50 (3.4420) (10.7702)
Apl-12 18,845.87 159.70 1.8515 (4.9122)Mar-12 18,503.28 167.95 (3.3062) 4.2844
Feb-12 19,135.96 161.05 (1.5904) (8.3120)
Jan-12 19,445.22 175.65 9.0994 11.1709
Dec-11 17,823.40 158.00 (2.7519) 20.1521
Nov-11 18,327.76 131.50 (10.6359) (32.3037)
Oct-11 20,509.09 194.25 5.0603 2.6691
Sep-11 19,521.25 189.20 (2.5513) (23.4783)
Aug-11 20,032.34 247.25 (0.1833) (4.5735)
Jul-11 20,069.12 259.10 11.6743 2.7359Jun-11 17,971.12 252.20 0.5755 (5.2948)
May-11 17,868.29 266.30
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4.1.4 .RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON HDIL SCRIP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
MONTH
13-May
Apl-13
13-Mar
13-Feb
Jan-13
13-Dec
12-Nov
12-Oct
Sep-12
12-Aug
12-Jul
12-Jun
12-May
Apl-12
12-Mar
12-Feb
12-Jan
11-Dec
11-Nov
11-Oct
11-Sep
11-Aug
11-Jul
11-Jun
11-May
Series1
Series3
Series2
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Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in
the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the
month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest
returns of 49.2495 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest
returns of -39.2786 during the month of November 2011.The security
return has shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January
2012.
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4.1.5 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON
HUB TOWN
MONTHBSE SENSEX Hub Town X Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 175.80 (1.1119) (2.8729)
Apl-13 17,429.98 181.00 7.4695 0.0000
Mar-13 16,218.53 181.00 (6.3531) 0.3882
Feb-13 17,318.81 180.30 (0.4906) (1.6635)
Jan-13 17,404.20 183.35 (1.9630) (11.2321)
Dec-12 17,752.68 206.55 3.2520 (4.4414)Nov-12 17,193.55 216.15 11.2497 20.7205
Oct-12 15,454.92 179.05 (4.1464) (1.6749)
Sep-12 16,123.46 182.10 (8.9328) (6.7588)
Aug-12 17,705.01 195.30 7.6046 2.7895
Jul-12 16,453.76 190.00 (1.3371) (4.3303)
Jun-12 16,676.75 198.60 (8.3554) 9.8148
May-12 18,197.20 180.85 (3.4420) (6.9941)
Apl-12 18,845.87 194.45 1.8515 (5.1695)
Mar-12 18,503.28 205.05 (3.3062) (2.7969)Feb-12 19,135.96 210.95 (1.5904) (6.2236)
Jan-12 19,445.22 224.95 9.0994 8.9874
Dec-11 17,823.40 206.40 (2.7519) (5.6241)
Nov-11 18,327.76 218.70 (10.6359) (13.1971)
Oct-11 20,509.09 251.95 5.0603 (30.0333)
Sep-11 19,521.25 360.10 (2.5513) (23.9975)
Aug-11 20,032.34 473.80 (0.1833) (6.6588)
Jul-11 20,069.12 507.60 11.6743 (2.3095)
Jun-11 17,971.12 519.60 0.5755 4.5578May-11 17,868.29 496.95
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4.1.5 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON
HUB TOWN
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
BSE SENSEX Rs.
Hub Town Rs.
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Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in
the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the
month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest
returns of 20.7205 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest
returns of -30.0333 during the month of December 2010.The security
return has shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January
2012.
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4.1.6 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON INDIAN
BULLS
MONTHBSE SENSEX INDIAN BULLS X Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 55.80 (1.1119) (8.7490)
Apl-13 17,429.98 61.15 7.4695 14.9436
Mar-13 16,218.53 53.20 (6.3531) (15.6894)
Feb-13 17,318.81 63.10 (0.4906) (1.0972)
Jan-13 17,404.20 63.80 (1.9630) (14.3049)Dec-12 17,752.68 74.45 3.2520 4.7854
Nov-12 17,193.55 71.05 11.2497 51.9786
Oct-12 15,454.92 46.75 (4.1464) (23.4861)
Sep-12 16,123.46 61.10 (8.9328) (18.4246)
Aug-12 17,705.01 74.90 7.6046 2.4624
Jul-12 16,453.76 73.10 (1.3371) (13.4911)
Jun-12 16,676.75 84.50 (8.3554) (15.1606)
May-12 18,197.20 99.60 (3.4420) (11.2695)
Apl-12 18,845.87 112.25 1.8515 (4.3460)Mar-12 18,503.28 117.35 (3.3062) (6.1200)
Feb-12 19,135.96 125.00 (1.5904) 0.4419
Jan-12 19,445.22 124.45 9.0994 19.6635
Dec-11 17,823.40 104.00 (2.7519) (13.8002)
Nov-11 18,327.76 120.65 (10.6359) (13.5435)
Oct-11 20,509.09 139.55 5.0603 (9.1767)
Sep-11 19,521.25 153.65 (2.5513) (19.8278)
Aug-11 20,032.34 191.65 (0.1833) 11.9778
Jul-11 20,069.12 171.15 11.6743 1.9053Jun-11 17,971.12 167.95 0.5755 2.7531
May-11 17,868.29 163.45
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4.1.6 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON INDIAN BULLS
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
BSE SENSEX Rs.
INDIAN BULLS Rs.
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Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in
the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the
month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest
returns of 51.9786 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest
returns of -23.4861 during the month of December 2011.The security
return has shown an upward movement from a December 2011 to
January 2012.
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4.1.7 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON SOBHA
DEVELOPER
MONTH
BSE
SENSEXSobha Developer X Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 348.75 (1.1119) 2.6188
Apl-13 17,429.98 339.85 7.4695 13.6622
Mar-13 16,218.53 299 (6.3531) (9.3390)
Feb-13 17,318.81 329.8 (0.4906) (0.2118)
Jan-13 17,404.20 330.5 (1.9630) 16.4758
Dec-12 17,752.68 283.75 3.2520 8.4464
Nov-12 17,193.55 261.65 11.2497 36.4893
Oct-12 15,454.92 191.7 (4.1464) (18.4776)
Sep-12 16,123.46 235.15 (8.9328) (7.2570)
Aug-12 17,705.01 253.55 7.6046 16.8972
July-12 16,453.76 216.9 (1.3371) (2.7354)
Jun-12 16,676.75 223 (8.3554) (14.1482)
May-12 18,197.20 259.75 (3.4420) 0.3865
Apl-12 18,845.87 258.75 1.8515 (4.3438)Mar-12 18,503.28 270.5 (3.3062) (5.4526)
Feb-12 19,135.96 286.1 (1.5904) (2.8523)
Jan-12 19,445.22 294.5 9.0994 17.8236
Dec-11 17,823.40 249.95 (2.7519) (4.1786)
Nov-11 18,327.76 260.85 (10.6359) (19.6396)
Oct-11 20,509.09 324.6 5.0603 (0.2612)
Sep-11 19,521.25 325.45 (2.5513) (9.5218)
Aug-11 20,032.34 359.7 (0.1833) (5.6525)
Jul-11 20,069.12 381.25 11.6743 15.9519Jun-11 17,971.12 328.8 0.5755 (1.6599)
May-11 17,868.29 334.35
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4.1.6.RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON SOBHA DEVELOPER SCRIP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
BSE SENSEX Rs.
Sobha Developer Rs
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Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in
the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the
month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest
returns of 36.4893 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest
returns of -19.6396 during the month of January 2011.The security
return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to January
2012.
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4.1.8 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PARSVANT
DEVELOPERS
MONT
H
BSE
SENSEXParsvant X Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 39.05 (1.1119) (36.4524)
Apl-13 17,429.98 61.45 7.4695 15.1828
Mar-13 16,218.53 53.35 (6.3531) (6.0739)
Feb-13 17,318.81 56.8 (0.4906) 0.4421
Jan-13 17,404.20 56.55 (1.9630) (4.6374)
Dec-12 17,752.68 59.3 3.2520 0.4234Nov-12 17,193.55 59.05 11.2497 35.2806
Oct-12 15,454.92 43.65 (4.1464) 20.0825
Sep-12 16,123.46 36.35 (8.9328) (54.5625)
Aug-12 17,705.01 80 7.6046 23.4568
July-12 16,453.76 64.8 (1.3371) 29.6000
Jun-12 16,676.75 50 (8.3554) 7.4114
May-12 18,197.20 46.55 (3.4420) (1.8967)
Apl-12 18,845.87 47.45 1.8515 12.5741
Mar-12 18,503.28 42.15 (3.3062) (3.2147)Feb-12 19,135.96 43.55 (1.5904) (4.4956)
Jan-12 19,445.22 45.6 9.0994 54.5763
Dec-11 17,823.40 29.5 (2.7519) (37.0331)
Nov-11 18,327.76 46.85 (10.6359) (19.1544)
Oct-11 20,509.09 57.95 5.0603 (0.6855)
Sep-11 19,521.25 58.35 (2.5513) (12.2556)
Aug-11 20,032.34 66.5 (0.1833) (9.4005)
Jul-11 20,069.12 73.4 11.6743 8.3715
Jun-11 17,971.12 67.73 0.5755 4.2000May-11 17,868.29 65.00
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4.1.8 .RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PARSVANT SCRIP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
BSE SENSEX Rs.
Parsvant Rs.
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Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010,
11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has
the highest returns of 54.5763 during the month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -54.5625
during the month of November 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from
February 2011 to March 2011.
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4.1.9 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PRESTIGE
ESTATE
MONTH BSE SENSEX PrestigeEstate X Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 111.85 (1.1119) (4.4017)
Apl-13 17,429.98 117.00 7.4695 1.4304
Mar-13 16,218.53 115.35 (6.3531) 4.6733
Feb-13 17,318.81 110.20 (0.4906) 10.3655
Jan-13 17,404.20 99.85 (1.9630) (3.9904)
Dec-12 17,752.68 104.00 3.2520 36.9322
Nov-12 17,193.55 75.95 11.2497 7.3498
Oct-12 15,454.92 70.75 (4.1464) (12.6004)
Sep-12 16,123.46 80.95 (8.9328) (18.3560)
Aug-12 17,705.01 99.15 7.6046 8.1833
Jul-12 16,453.76 91.65 (1.3371) (6.9543)
Jun-12 16,676.75 98.50 (8.3554) (24.9524)
May-12 18,197.20 131.25 (3.4420) 8.9664
Apl-12 18,845.87 120.45 1.8515 (19.0524)
Mar-12 18,503.28 148.80 (3.3062) 2.1978
Feb-12 19,135.96 145.60 (1.5904) 16.4800
Jan-12 19,445.22 125.00 9.0994 7.5731Dec-11 17,823.40 116.20 (2.7519) (22.2222)
Nov-11 18,327.76 149.40 (10.6359) (12.2982)
Oct-11 20,509.09 170.35 5.0603 1.1279
Sep-11 19,521.25 168.45 (2.5513) (15.0530)
Aug-11 20,032.34 198.30 (0.1833) 9.9529
July-11 20,069.12 180.35 11.6743 3.9781
Jun-11 17,971.12 173.45 0.5755 (3.3435)
May-11 17,868.29 179.45
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4.1.9.RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PRESTIGE ESTATE SCRIP
Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of
September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -
10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 36.9322 during the month of
February 2012 and the lowest returns of -24.9524 during the month of August
2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to
February 2012.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
BSE SENSEX Rs.
Prestige Estate Rs.
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4.1.10 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON OBEROI
REALITY
MONTHBSE SENSEX
Oberoi
RealityX Y
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
May-13 17,236.18 230.55 (1.1119) (5.0257)
Apl-13 17,429.98 242.75 7.4695 (5.6365)
Mar-13 16,218.53 257.25 (6.3531) (4.7751)
Feb-13 17,318.81 270.15 (0.4906) 0.5958
Jan-13 17,404.20 268.55 (1.9630) (5.4068)
Dec-12 17,752.68 283.90 3.2520 13.2881
Nov-12 17,193.55 250.60 11.2497 20.1918Oct-12 15,454.92 208.50 (4.1464) (5.2703)
Sep-12 16,123.46 220.10 (8.9328) (5.6984)
Aug-12 17,705.01 233.40 7.6046 1.7215
July-12 16,453.76 229.45 (1.3371) 1.9778
Jun-12 16,676.75 225.00 (8.3554) (4.6206)
May-12 18,197.20 235.90 (3.4420) (1.7902)
Apl-12 18,845.87 240.20 1.8515 6.7556
Mar-12 18,503.28 225.00 (3.3062) (11.0848)
Feb-12 19,135.96 253.05 (1.5904) 0.4964Jan-12 19,445.22 251.80 9.0994 15.3723
Dec-11 17,823.40 218.25 (2.7519) (11.2083)
Nov-11 18,327.76 245.80 (10.6359) (4.1155)
Oct-11 20,509.09 256.35 5.0603 (4.7203)
Sep-11 19,521.25 269.05 (2.5513) (2.9226)
Aug-11 20,032.34 277.15 (0.1833) 5.2402
July-11 20,069.12 263.35 11.6743 (1.3855)
June-11 17,971.12 267.05 0.5755 2.2592
May-11 17,868.29 261.15
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4.1.10 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON OBEROI REALITY
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
BSE SENSEX Rs.
Oberoi Reality Rs.
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Interpretation:
From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the
month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the monthof January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of
20.1918 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -
11.2083 during the month of February 2011.The security return has shown
an upward movement from November 2011 to January 2012.
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CALCULATION OF BETA
STANDARD INTERPRETATION:
Beta is the slope of the characteristics regression line. Beta describes the relationship
between the stocks return and the index returns.
1) If Beta = +1.0One per cent change in Market index causes exactly one per cent change in the stock
return. It indicates that the stock moves in tandem with the market.
2) If Beta = + 0.5One per cent changes in Market index causes 0.5 per cent change in the stock return.
The stock is volatile compared to the market.
3) If Beta = + 2.0One per cent change in Market index causes two per cent change in the stock return.
The stock return is more volatile. The stock with more than one Beta value is
considered to be risky.
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4)Negative Beta value indicates that the stock return moves in the oppositedirection to the market return. The stock with the negative Beta of -1
would provide a return of 10%. if the market return declines by 10% vice versa.
BETA FORMULA = nxy-(x)(y)
________________________________
n (x^2)-(y^2)
CALCULATION OF ALPHA
The intercept of the characteristic regression line is Alpha. i.e the distance
between the intersection and the horizontal axis. It indicates that the stock return
is independent of the market return;positive value of alpha is a healthy sign.
Positive alpha value would yield profitable return.
Formula = y x
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CALCULATION OF CORRELATION
It measures the nature and the extent of relationship between the stock market return
and the stock return in a particular period.
nxy-(x) ( y)r =
nx^2 (x)2 ny^2 (y)2
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4.1.11 TABLE SHOWING ALPHA,BETA & CORRELATION OF
REALTY SECTOR SCRIPS
COMPANY
NAMEALPHA BETA CORRELATION
Anant Raj industies -2.52 1.69 0.60
DB Reality -4.49 1.58 0.45
DLF -0.74 1.63 0.76
HDIL -2.77 2.61 0.73
Hub Town -3.71 0.48 0.29
Indiabulls RealEstate
-3.29 1.98 0.75
Sobha Developer 0.91 1.80 0.84
Parsvnath
Developers0.84 2.38 0.62
Prestige EstateProjects
-1.03 1.08 0.47
Oberoi Reality -0.26 0.73 0.58
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INTERPRETATION
1. From the table it is inferred that the alpha value for Sobha Developer andPrasvnathis positive, thus the above stocks shows a healthy sign and these
stocks will yield a profitable return. The Alpha value for Anant Raj
Industries, DB Reality,DLF, HDIL, Hub Town, India bulls, Prestige
Estate ProjectsandOberoi realty is negative which means that these stocks
will not yield a profitable value.
2. The Beta should fall between 0 and 1 for the risk less investment. Here fromthe above table, it is clear that the Hub Town and Oberoi Realty is having
Beta less than one which indicates lessrisky investment.From the table it is
inferred that the beta value for Anant Raj Industries, DLF, HDIL, India
bulls, Parsvnath, DB realty, Sobha developer and Prestige estate is more
than 1, thus the above stocks are considered to be very risky
3. The correlation coefficient measures the nature and the extend of relationshipbetween the market return and the stock return for the study period. From the
above table it is inferred that the coefficient of determination is above 60
percentage which shows the variation of the security return with the market
return for 8 out of 10 Realty scrips.
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CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSIONS
5.1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
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DLF:The market returns has been highest in the month of September2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -
10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 26.0080 during the
month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -23.3088 during the month
of January 2011. It has a Alpha of -0.74, Beta of 1.63 and correlation of
coefficient of .76. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield
profitable value. Beta of 1.63 is greater than the market return and it is
proved that company has a high volatility compared to the market return.
HDIL :The market returns has been highest in the month of September2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -
10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 49.2495 during the
month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -39.2786 during the
month of November 2011. It has a Alpha of -2.77, Beta of 2.61 and
correlation of coefficient of .73. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will
not yield profitable value. Beta of 2.61 is greater than the market return
and it is proved that company has a high volatility compared to the market
return.
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HUB TOWN:The market returns has been highest in the month ofSeptember 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of
January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of
20.7205 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -
30.0333 during the month of December 2010.The security return has
shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January 2012. It has
a Alpha of -3.71, Beta of 0.48 and correlation of coefficient of .29. Since
the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of
0.48 is lesser than the market return and it is proved that company is
lessvolatility compared to the market return.
INDIA BULLS:The market returns has been highest in the month ofSeptember 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of
January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of
51.9786 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -
23.4861 during the month of December 2011. It has a Alpha of -3.29, Beta
of 1.98 and correlation of coefficient of 0.75. Since the Alpha is negative
the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.98 is greater than the
market return and it is proved that company has high volatility compared
to the market return.
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PRESTIGE ESTATE:The market returns has been highest in the monthof September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of
January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of
36.9322 during the month of February 2012 and the lowest returns of -
24.9524 during the month of August 2011. It has a Alpha of-1.03, Beta of
1.08 and correlation of coefficient of 0.47. Since the Alpha is negative the
stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.08 is greater than the
market return and it is proved that company has high volatility compared
to the market return.
OBEROI REALTY:The market returns has been highest in the month ofSeptember 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of
January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of
20.1918 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -
11.2083 during the month of February 2011. It has a Alpha of-.26 , Beta of
0.73 and correlation of coefficient of 0.58. Since the Alpha is negative the
stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 0.73 is lesser than the market
return and it is proved that company has less volatility compared to the
market return.
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In short, the following hypothesis have been tested and proved, that the foreign
market creates a great impact in the Indian stock market. Thus the investors are
advised to read the market conditions and the economic conditions before they
invest in the market. They are also advised to check the Real estate sectors before
they invest in the market.
In the analysis and data interpretation part we have seen that price movements ofthe
stock over a time frame. From this we find that stock market price alwaysfluctuate
because of many influencing factors like political, economic,corporate news etc.
over a short term.
Over a short term stock market will always remain volatile; it is Investmentthebetteroption against Trading. One can find Investing over a long periodyields
good return in stock market, rather than trading for short-term capitalgain. Trading
may leads to capital loss. So invest wisely. Hope my projectguides investors in a
proper way in stock market.
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APPENDIX
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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:
JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - DB REALTY
MONTH OPEN PRICE HIGH PRICE LOW PRICE CLOSE PRICE
May-13 82.95 85.25 75 78.15
Apl-13 88 93.2 79.2 81
Mar-13 74.45 93.2 65.55 87.8
Feb-13 86.3 91.45 72.65 73.7
Jan-13 82.4 99.3 69.6 85.2
Dec-12 62.15 102.5 57.2 81.35
Nov-12 50.85 66.75 48.8 62Oct-12 74 74.85 45.05 49.45
Sep-12 70.8 81 52.05 72.05
Aug-12 50.6 74.2 47.5 72.15
Jul-12 59.9 65 49.4 49.6
Jun-12 79.75 79.9 59.65 60
May-12 71 89.8 68.7 78.2
Apl-12 77 83.6 66.1 70.1
Mar-12 97.45 98.4 66 77.05
Feb-12 119.2 122.25 94.6 97.05Jan-12 110.6 130 81.4 118.45
Dec-11 156 159.5 103.25 109.65
Nov-11 198.4 207.2 143.5 152
Oct-11 210 251.5 184 195.6
Sep-11 430 439.2 190.55 207.9
Aug-11 410.4 457 406.5 418.8
Jul-11 434.95 474.9 402.5 405.75
Jun-11 429.9 471.5 383 429
May-11 383 430 355 425.15
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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:
JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - HDIL
MONTH OPEN PRICE HIGH PRICE LOW PRICE CLOSE PRICE
May-13 87.75 93.05 71 79.
Apl-13 67.2 87.8 61.5 86.9
Mar-13 81.9 84.25 59.6 67.
Feb-13 85.5 93.3 77.5 80.
Jan-13 113 117.4 80.55 85.4
Dec-12 79.5 135.4 77.15 114.3
Nov-12 53.75 84.1 52.1 79.5
Oct-12 62.9 67 52.3 53.Sep-12 99.5 103.35 60.05 60.
Aug-12 97 102 89.2 99.
Jul-12 101.55 114.7 96.45 9
Jun-12 147.9 147.9 95 102.3
May-12 160.9 175.45 140.7 142.
Apl-12 168 180.65 148.05 159.
Mar-12 162 168.9 135.05 167.9
Feb-12 176.85 198.9 158.5 161.0
Jan-12 159.05 178.6 150.65 175.6
Dec-11 131.75 162.9 122.5 15
Nov-11 196 197.7 129 131.
Oct-11 188.95 217 177.1 194.2
Sep-11 250 268 160.1 189.
Aug-11 262.65 290.95 244.1 247.2
Jul-11 253.5 284.9 250.6 259.
Jun-11 271 299.6 248.8 252.
May-11 247.5 282 237 266.
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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - HUB TOWN
MONTHOPENPRICE
HIGH PRICELOW
PRICECLOSEPRICE
May-13 180 182.8 167 175.8
Apl-13 188.4 188.8 175.1 181
Mar-13 179.85 192.9 173.05 181
Feb-13 182 196 173.15 180.3
Jan-13 206 215 173.85 183.35
Dec-12 218.9 240 185.7 206.55Nov-12 185.5 218 177 216.15
Oct-12 183 187.8 166.05 179.05
Sep-12 192.15 204.4 174.3 182.1
Aug-12 184 206.35 181 195.3
Jul-12 200 204.9 182 190
Jun-12 181.5 199.9 168 198.6
May-12 197.85 205.9 180.15 180.85
Apl-12 205 217.45 186.05 194.45
Mar-12 212 216.7 194.1 205.05Feb-12 225 259 210.15 210.95
Jan-12 205.25 241 192.1 224.95
Dec-11 222 248 183.05 206.4
Nov-11 252 254.85 211 218.7
Oct-11 360 398.9 247 251.95
Sep-11 483.65 504 334 360.1
Aug-11 510 520 467.2 473.8
Jul-11 518 547 489 507.6
Jun-11 504.1 554.8 500 519.6May-11 475.1 535 468.1 496.95
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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - INDIAN BULLS
MONTH OPEN PRICE HIGH PRICE LOW PRICECLOSEPRICE
May -13 61.80 65.75 52.70 55.80
Apl-13 53.25 61.55 49.50 61.15
Mar-13 63.00 63.80 48.35 53.20
Feb-13 63.90 68.55 59.20 63.10
Jan-13 75.00 76.10 58.70 63.80
Dec-12 71.00 83.90 66.95 74.45Nov-12 47.20 72.85 45.50 71.05
Oct-12 64.00 66.85 40.10 46.75
Sep-12 73.05 79.05 59.25 61.10
Aug-12 72.00 77.80 66.80 74.90
Jul-12 84.00 91.75 71.55 73.10
Jun-12 101.00 102.50 70.75 84.50
May-12 113.50 125.00 98.80 99.60
Apl-12 118.00 120.40 97.80 112.25
Mar-12 130.00 130.00 105.00 117.35Feb-12 124.05 152.75 123.10 125.00
Jan-12 104.95 126.50 100.20 124.45
Dec-11 121.60 123.70 99.25 104.00
Nov-11 139.00 140.55 114.80 120.65
Oct-11 153.00 162.70 122.00 139.55
Sep-11 199.90 218.50 118.15 153.65
Aug-11 173.00 215.00 172.50 191.65
Jul-11 169.50 187.05 169.00 171.15
Jun-11 165.20 200.80 164.60 167.95May-11 156.25 174.50 153.00 163.45
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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD:
JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - SOBHA DEVELOPER
MONTHOPEN
PRICEHIGH PRICE
LOW
PRICECLOSE PRICE
May-13 340 359 325.6 348.75
Apl-13 298 356.75 285.6 339.85
Mar-13 332.7 333 282.45 299
Feb-13 331.05 366.8 304.25 329.8
Jan-13 280 334.4 264.05 330.5Dec-12 258.5 306 252.55 283.75
Nov-12 192 266.95 189 261.65
Oct-12 242.8 246 185.25 191.7
Sep-12 253.5 256.7 202.4 235.15
Aug-12 214.7 258.95 201.05 253.55
Jul-12 225.75 237.75 212 216.9
Jun-12 262.75 268.55 207.1 223
May-12 261.35 294.3 245.35 259.75
Apl-12 282.65 282.7 226 258.75
Mar-12 285 295.4 240.1 270.5
Feb-12 296 327 281.05 286.1
Jan-12 252 303.15 250 294.5
Dec-11 261 271 185 249.95
Nov-11 327.85 329.7 252 260.85
Oct-11 325 339.85 306 324.6
Sep-11 370.5 378 288.5 325.45
Aug-11 383.6 403.9 346.55 359.7
Jul-11 333.7 401.7 332.05 381.25
Jun-11 333.8 394 320.6 328.8
May-11 285.4 355 283.8 334.35
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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY
2010 TO JULY 2012 - PARSVNATH DEVELOPERS
MONTH OPEN PRICEHIGHPRICE
LOW PRICECLOSEPRICE
May-13 61.5 61.8 35.55 39.05
Apl-13 54.95 62.45 52.25 61.45
Mar-13 57.9 57.9 52.1 53.35
Feb-13 57.55 61 51.15 56.8Jan-13 59.4 62.25 55.6 56.55
Dec-12 59.4 64.45 58.5 59.3
Nov-12 43.4 61.25 41.85 59.05
Oct-12 36.8 45.45 36.3 43.65
Sep-12 80 81.95 32.45 36.35
Aug-12 64.15 82.25 62.55 80
Jul-12 49.55 69 49.55 64.8
Jun-12 46.25 50.45 43 50
May-12 47.15 49.75 45.55 46.55Apl-12 42.25 47.5 40.25 47.45
Mar-12 43.35 44.4 39.9 42.15
Feb-12 45.1 48.4 43 43.55
Jan-12 30 50.05 28 45.6
Dec-11 47.75 47.75 25.1 29.5
Nov-11 58.2 61.5 46 46.85
Oct-11 50 62.5 45 57.95
Sep-11 67 71.85 46.55 58.35
Aug-11 73.38 74.73 65.95 66.5Jul-11 68.93 74.73 67.9 73.4
Jun-11 65.75 71.98 64.75 67.73
May-11 61.75 68.8 60.7 65
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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY
2010 TO JULY 2012 - OBEROI REALTY
MONTH OPEN PRICEHIGH
PRICELOW PRICE CLOSE PRICE
May-13 244.5 247 226 230.55Apl-13 258.1 271.8 236.2 242.75
Mar-13 271.95 271.95 228 257.25
Feb-13 270 284.5 263 270.15
Jan-13 279.85 286 250 268.55
Dec-12 241 322.9 241 283.9
Nov-12 213 263.4 205.05 250.6
Oct-12 223 234.95 205.1 208.5
Sep-12 233 235 214.05 220.1
Aug-12 234.75 244.85 221 233.4
Jul-12 232.95 232.95 212.25 229.45
Jun-12 240 242 210 225
May-12 240.5 247.9 230.35 235.9
Apl-12 225.15 257.25 220 240.2
Mar-12 250.2 259.9 216.05 225
Feb-12 250 273 246 253.05
Jan-12 219 254.9 210 251.8
Dec-11 245.4 267.05 212.05 218.25
Nov-11 259.9 263 240.15 245.8
Oct-11 268 278.5 240 256.35Sep-11 281.4 294.5 240 269.05
Aug-11 280 306.6 269.8 277.15
Jul-11 245.4 267.05 243.76 263.35
Jun-11 259.9 263 253.15 267.05
May-11 268 278.5 253 261.15
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REFERENCES
REFERENCES
1.Punithavathipandian - Security Analysis and PortfolioManagementVikas Publishing House Pvt. Ltd. 2001
2.C.R Kothari- Research Methodology Wishvaprakashan, NewDelhi 2002.
WEBLIOGRAPHY
1.www.bseindia.com2.www.moneycontrol.com3.www.sharekhan.com4.Business line5.Economic times.
http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.bseindia.com/ -
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