maybank ib researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · expanding profile four core...

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Initiating Coverage 21 March 2012 SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Maybank IB Research PP16832/01/2013 (031128) A new O&G hope Initiate coverage with a Buy and RM2.20 target price. Yinson offers a niche exposure to the nascent Vietnamese O&G sector without the Dong currency risk. With a projected 3-year net profit CAGR of 32%, Yinson provides strong earnings visibility with inexpensive valuations (7.0x PER, 1.0x PBV, 0.4x PEG for FY14). Clinching another rewarding floating solution contract will be the next major re-rating catalyst. A direct proxy to growth in Vietnamese O&G. Yinson is steadily remodelling its business profile, from a Malaysia-based land logistics and trading group to an O&G play, with Vietnam-centric operations. Its two offshore supply vessels (a 3,000dwt PSV and an AHTS) are deployed for PetroVietnam‟s offshore operations on long-term charters (7 years) and its floating storage and offloading (FSO) unit, co-owned with Vietnam‟s National Oil Company (NOC) and under construction with a 1QCY13 delivery date, has a 20-year bareboat charter contract. Prospects are O&G-driven. Earnings contributions from the O&G division are set to quadruple, from 26% of group net profit in FY12 to 85% in FY14. Growth will be anchored by its FSO contract, which will contribute about 33-46% of FY14-15 net earnings, we estimate. The 40%-owned bulk cargo port operations, acquired in July 2011, will also provide long-term growth, as it expands warehouses and cargo facilities. Operating risk is manageable and the currency of commerce will be USD (including for the OSVs and FSO). 3-year net profit CAGR of 32%, with upside potential. We see Yinson prospecting for new FSO/FPSO projects for growth, as it still has the balance sheet to fund another FSO/FPSO on a joint-venture basis. The Vietnam and Malaysia markets are its likeliest prospects. 11 floating solution projects are in the pipeline for rollout over the next two years in these markets. Clinching another FSO/FPSO contract will be another major positive, warranting a re-rating for the stock. 32% upside to target price. Valuations are undemanding relative to peers with market capitalisation of under RM1b. We see upside to Yinson‟s share price, as it currently trades at a single-digit PER with double-digit earnings growth, and multiple expansion plans ahead. Yinson Holdings Summary Earnings Table FYE Jan (RM m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Revenue 470.2 640.8 672.8 651.9 668.0 EBITDA 22.1 39.0 49.4 64.2 97.1 Recurring Net Profit 7.1 16.8 25.0 31.3 45.1 Recurring Basic EPS (Sen) 3.8 8.9 13.3 16.6 24.0 EPS growth (%) (37.9)% 133.2% 41.5% 19.3% 44.3% DPS (Sen) 0.7 0.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 PER 39.6 17.0 12.0 10.1 7.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 7.6 10.1 12.0 7.1 Div Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 P/BV(x) 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 Net Gearing (%) 0.9 1.5 0.8 1.7 1.2 ROE (%) 7.7% 16.3% 14.6% 12.4% 15.8% ROA (%) 3.6% 5.9% 5.9% 4.7% 5.5% Source: Maybank-IB Yinson Holdings Buy (new) Share price: RM1.67 Target price: RM2.20 (new) Wong Chew Hann, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8688 Chong Ooi Ming [email protected] (603) 2297 8676 Description : Vietnam focused O&G solutions and project manager with 4 core operations: FPS projects, marine vessels, and land logistics and port operations. Information: Ticker: YNS MK Shares Issued (m): 188.4 Market Cap (RM m): 314.6 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 0.42 KLCI: 1,577.62 Major Shareholders: % Lim Han Weng & familiy 62.0 Price Performance: 52-week High/Low RM1.72/RM0.55 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD 29.5 47.5 90.2 195.1 29.9 Price Chart (RM1.67) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 YNS MK Equity

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Page 1: Maybank IB Researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · Expanding profile Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore marine services (i.e

Initiating Coverage 21 March 2012

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Maybank IB Research PP16832/01/2013 (031128)

A new O&G hope

Initiate coverage with a Buy and RM2.20 target price. Yinson offers

a niche exposure to the nascent Vietnamese O&G sector without the

Dong currency risk. With a projected 3-year net profit CAGR of 32%,

Yinson provides strong earnings visibility with inexpensive valuations

(7.0x PER, 1.0x PBV, 0.4x PEG for FY14). Clinching another rewarding

floating solution contract will be the next major re-rating catalyst.

A direct proxy to growth in Vietnamese O&G. Yinson is steadily

remodelling its business profile, from a Malaysia-based land logistics

and trading group to an O&G play, with Vietnam-centric operations. Its

two offshore supply vessels (a 3,000dwt PSV and an AHTS) are

deployed for PetroVietnam‟s offshore operations on long-term charters

(7 years) and its floating storage and offloading (FSO) unit, co-owned

with Vietnam‟s National Oil Company (NOC) and under construction

with a 1QCY13 delivery date, has a 20-year bareboat charter contract.

Prospects are O&G-driven. Earnings contributions from the O&G

division are set to quadruple, from 26% of group net profit in FY12 to

85% in FY14. Growth will be anchored by its FSO contract, which will

contribute about 33-46% of FY14-15 net earnings, we estimate. The

40%-owned bulk cargo port operations, acquired in July 2011, will also

provide long-term growth, as it expands warehouses and cargo

facilities. Operating risk is manageable and the currency of commerce

will be USD (including for the OSVs and FSO).

3-year net profit CAGR of 32%, with upside potential. We see

Yinson prospecting for new FSO/FPSO projects for growth, as it still

has the balance sheet to fund another FSO/FPSO on a joint-venture

basis. The Vietnam and Malaysia markets are its likeliest prospects. 11

floating solution projects are in the pipeline for rollout over the next two

years in these markets. Clinching another FSO/FPSO contract will be

another major positive, warranting a re-rating for the stock.

32% upside to target price. Valuations are undemanding relative to

peers with market capitalisation of under RM1b. We see upside to

Yinson‟s share price, as it currently trades at a single-digit PER with

double-digit earnings growth, and multiple expansion plans ahead.

Yinson Holdings – Summary Earnings Table FYE Jan (RM m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Revenue 470.2 640.8 672.8 651.9 668.0

EBITDA 22.1 39.0 49.4 64.2 97.1

Recurring Net Profit 7.1 16.8 25.0 31.3 45.1

Recurring Basic EPS (Sen)

3.8 8.9 13.3 16.6 24.0

EPS growth (%) (37.9)% 133.2% 41.5% 19.3% 44.3%

DPS (Sen) 0.7 0.8 2.5 2.5 2.5

PER 39.6 17.0 12.0 10.1 7.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 7.6 10.1 12.0 7.1

Div Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.5

P/BV(x) 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.0

Net Gearing (%) 0.9 1.5 0.8 1.7 1.2

ROE (%) 7.7% 16.3% 14.6% 12.4% 15.8%

ROA (%) 3.6% 5.9% 5.9% 4.7% 5.5%

Source: Maybank-IB

Yinson Holdings

Buy (new)

Share price: RM1.67 Target price: RM2.20 (new)

Wong Chew Hann, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8688

Chong Ooi Ming [email protected] (603) 2297 8676

Description: Vietnam focused O&G solutions and project manager with 4 core operations: FPS projects, marine vessels, and land logistics and port operations.

Information: Ticker: YNS MK Shares Issued (m): 188.4 Market Cap (RM m): 314.6

3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 0.42 KLCI: 1,577.62 Major Shareholders: %

Lim Han Weng & familiy 62.0

Price Performance:

52-week High/Low RM1.72/RM0.55

1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD 29.5 47.5 90.2 195.1 29.9

Price Chart (RM1.67)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11

YNS MK Equity

Page 2: Maybank IB Researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · Expanding profile Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore marine services (i.e

Yinson Holdings

21 March 2012 Page 2 of 16

Expanding profile

Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore

marine services (i.e. floating solutions and OSVs), commodity trading,

logistics services and port operations.

(i) Offshore marine services. Starting out as a shipbroker for O&G

service providers, Yinson has graduated to owning its own vessels.

It currently owns two offshore support vessels (OSVs), a 3,000dwt

platform supply vessel (PSV; PTSC Huong Giang), and a 5,000bhp

anchor handing tug and supply (AHTS; PTSC Lam Kinh). Both are

on long-term charter to PetroVietnam:

PTSC Huong Giang: 2010-2014 plus 2 years extension

PTSC Lam Kinh: 2011-2013 plus 5 years extension.

Its crowning achievement to date is its recently-secured 20-year

bareboat charter for a floating, storage, offloading (FSO) vessel,

marking its breakthrough into the floating solutions industry. The

vessel is under construction at the Sundong shipyard, South Korea.

Existing OSV and FSO bare boat contracts broken into firm (orange) and option (grey) period

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

FSO Bein Dong

PTSC Lam Kinh

PTSC Huong Giang

Contract Period: 2011- 2013 (2018)Est. dayrate: USD 7,150

Contract Period: 2010- 2015 (2017)Est. dayrate: USD 10,500

Contract Period: 2013- 2023 (2033)Est. dayrate: USD 57,974 (year 1-10), USD 35,451 (year 11-20)

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB

(ii) Commodity trading. Yinson trades in: (i) vessel supplies for fresh

water, hydraulic fluids, marine gas and oil, lubricant, diesel and

O&G steel-related products (i.e. pipe fittings and flanges), (ii) scrap

steel, mill scales and iron ore, and (iii) building materials (i.e. sand,

cement, steel bars, bricks and granite).

(iii) Logistics services. The group offers trucking services in support

of its trading services. Most of the items carried are in-house cargo.

Some of its notable customers are MMHE, Dialog and YTL Group.

With the sale of its third-party haulage operations in Feb 2011,

Yinson has steadily realigned its trading and logistics segments

into support units for its O&G activities.

(iv) Port operations. Yinson acquired a 40% stake in the Southern

Vietnamese port of Phu My for RM26.4m in July 2011. PTSC is its

partner, with the balance 60% stake. While only breaking even

now, we foresee the port operations to become the group‟s next

earnings driver in Vietnam after the marine segment.

Page 3: Maybank IB Researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · Expanding profile Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore marine services (i.e

Yinson Holdings

21 March 2012 Page 3 of 16

Yinson’s evolving earnings profile

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028

Logistics & Trading

OSVs

FSO BeinDong

2nd floater

Phu My port

Source: Company

Growing from a family-owned enterprise. Chairman and Managing

Director Lim Han Weng, along with management (comprising family

members), own a collective 62% of the Group. Its institutional following

has risen rapidly over the last 12 months, from zero to 15%, reflecting

its developing profile. Liquidity has picked up as well, with average daily

volume traded at 647k shares now, from 84k previously.

Group operating structure and shareholding

Offshore Services

• Floating solutions

projects• Vessel chartering &

broking

Commodity Trading

•O&G Equipment

•Construction materials

Logistics Services

• Land Transportation

• Port and deep sea handling

Founding family (62%)Free Float (38%)

Port Services

• Dry bulk cargo

handling• Warehouse rental

Source: Company

Financial profile

The trading division is, for now, the largest contributor to

Yinson‟s earnings, accounting for 79-85% of its revenue and

50-89% of its EBIT over the last five years.

Contributions from the logistics services division have been on

a steady decline, with revenue and EBIT falling over the last

three years, from RM138m and RM8m in FY09 to RM103m

and RM1m in FY11 respectively.

The offshore marine services division is its growth segment.

Since its inception in FY10, revenue at this segment has tripled

from RM17m in FY10 to RM51m in 9MFY12, while EBIT has

surged, from RM1m in FY10 to RM9m in 9MFY12.

Page 4: Maybank IB Researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · Expanding profile Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore marine services (i.e

Yinson Holdings

21 March 2012 Page 4 of 16

Yinson: Revenue breakdown (by segment)

Logistics

24%

Marine

4%

Trading

72%

FY10 Revenue:470.2m

Logistics 16%

Trading 72%

Offshoremarine

services4%

Logistics

13%

Offshore

marine

services…

Trading

79%FY11 Revenue:

RM640.8m

Logistics 13%

Trading 79%

Offshoremarine

services 8%

Logistics9%

Marine

10%

Trading

81%9M FY12 Revenue:

RM549.9m

Offshoremarine

services10%

Logistics 9%

Trading 81%

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB

Yinson: EBIT breakdown (by segment)

Logistics

15%

Offshore

marine

services…

Trading

78%

FY10 EBIT: RM14.9m

Logistics 15%

Trading 76%

Offshoremarine

services 7%

Logistics1%

Offshore

marine

services…

Trading

89%

FY11 EBIT: RM33.0m

Logistics 1%

Trading 89%

Offshoremarine

services 10%

Logistics

11%

Offshore

marine

services…

Trading

57%

9M FY12 EBIT:RM29.4m

Logistics11%

Trading 57%

Offshoremarine

services32%

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB

Expanding margins. The group‟s blended EBIT margin is rising, from

3-5% in FY06-11 to 6% as at 9MFY12. The margin expansion is mainly

driven by increasing contributions from the lucrative offshore marine

services division. Among the three currently contributing divisions,

offshore marine services enjoy the highest EBIT margin (18.3% for

9MFY12), followed by logistics (3.6%) and trading operations (3.7%).

Changing EBIT contribution profile and rising EBIT margins

19.5 22.4 22.8 24.0

14.9

33.0 32.6

4.4

5.44.7

3.8

3.0

4.95.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

10

20

30

40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9M FY12

Logistics (LHS) Offshore marine servicesTrading (LHS) Blended EBIT (RHS)(RM m) (%)

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB

Page 5: Maybank IB Researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · Expanding profile Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore marine services (i.e

Yinson Holdings

21 March 2012 Page 5 of 16

Developing into a Vietnam O&G play

A direct proxy to Vietnam’s O&G industry. Yinson is rapidly building

up its Vietnamese presence, especially in the O&G sector, in close

partnership with PetroVietnam, the nation‟s National Oil Company

(NOC). It built up its track record as a shipbroker in 2008 before turning

into an OSV operator in 2010 and FSO operator in 2011.

First Malaysian operator to own a PSV, chartered to PetroVietnam.

Its 100%-owned 3,000 dwt PSV (a.k.a. PTSC Huong Giang) is its

maiden venture as an OSV operator in Vietnam. Yinson has a 7-year

contract (Aug 2010-2017) to bareboat-charter the PSV for

PetroVietnam‟s offshore projects for USD27m (RM80m) over the

contract period. The day rate is respectable at USD3.50 per dwt, and

we estimate Yinson will earn about RM7m in net profit p.a..

Its second vessel, is also chartered to PetroVietnam. Its 5,000bhp

AHTS (a.k.a. PTSC Lam Kinh) is similarly contracted on a 7-year basis

(Jul 2011-2018) for <USD20m over the contract period. The bareboat

charter has a reasonable day rate of USD1.43 per bhp. Yinson should

make about RM5m in net profit p.a. from this vessel charter.

Making inroads into floating solutions. The key highlight to Yinson‟s

offshore services operations to date would be its successful bid for a

FSO project from PetroVietnam last year. The FSO contract was

initially won by BW Offshore, but awarded to Yinson when BW

subsequently pulled out of the project.

To co-own a FSO with PetroVietnam. The FSO is under construction

at the Sungdong yard in Korea for USD150m, with a planned delivery

date of 1Q 2013. Yinson will co-own the FSO with PetroVietnam on a

49:51 joint venture basis, a major positive in our view. As Yinson will

have joint control over the FSO‟s management, the FSO‟s earnings will

be proportionately consolidated.

USD331m for 20 years. The FSO contract, valued at USD331m, is for

a 20-year period commencing Mar 2013. The FSO will be deployed for

the Moc Tinh and Hai Tach gas condensate fields (on a bareboat

basis), which are owned by Bien Dong Petroleum Operating Company

(BDPOC), a wholly-owned subsidiary of PetroVietnam.

A rewarding project with a 16% equity IRR. The key feature of this

contract is that the bareboat daily charter rate is heavily front-loaded in

its first four years of operations (initial 10 years‟ estimated average

bareboat rate: USD57,974 per day; subsequent 10 years: USD35,451

per day). We estimate the cashflow will allow Yinson to repay the

USD120m bank loan, which effectively shortens the payback period of

the asset to between 5 and 7 years.

Manageable operating risk. There is no operations and maintenance

(O&M) risk as the FSO charter is on a bareboat basis. Based on the

field development report, these fields have a reserves lifespan of 22

years, which is longer than the 20-year FSO contracted period. The

combined reserves at the two gas fields are estimated at 2.3 trillion

cubic feet of gas and 100m barrels of associated liquids. As such, the

probability that FSO‟s charter will be extended beyond the committed

period is high.

Page 6: Maybank IB Researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · Expanding profile Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore marine services (i.e

Yinson Holdings

21 March 2012 Page 6 of 16

Expected to contribute RM15m-RM32m p.a. in its first four years of

operations. We base our forecast on Yinson‟s 49% stake in the FSO,

taking into account its depreciation policy (reducing balance) and

financing costs. Cost of debt is c. 4.0% p.a. on a LIBOR plus basis, in

USD, over a 5-year repayment term.

Jointly-controlled entity (JCE) accounting for its 49% stake. The

FSO is scheduled to be delivered on site by May 2013, with first gas

production expected within a month‟s time. Yinson has stated that it will

adopt JCE accounting for its 49% stake in FSO Bien Dong. This being

the case, instead of only equity accounting its earnings as an

associate, Yinson will consolidate 49% of FSO‟s accounts (i.e. revenue,

EBIT, profit, cash, debt etc.). This is due to Yinson‟s involvement in the

FSO‟s daily operations and the fact that it holds an equal number of

board seats with PTSC in the FSO holding company (2 seats each).

Currency risk management. All of Yinson‟s offshore marine charter

contracts are denominated in USD, thus eliminating the risk of

exposure to Vietnam‟s Dong, which has been devalued six times over

the past four years.

Recent corporate developments

Private placements and rights issue to part-fund asset purchases.

Yinson recently completed a 10% private placement (issuing 6.8m new

shares at RM1.65 per share) and a 3-for-2 rights issue (post

placement, at RM0.75 per unit), raising RM11m from the private

placement and RM85m from the rights issue or a total of RM96m. The

monies, which will effectively cover about 27% of the group‟s RM350m

capex requirement over the next 1 year, will mainly be used to fund the

FSO unit, currently under construction.

Utilisation of proceeds from the rights issue & private placement Details Value (RM’m)

1 FSO capex 51.2

2 Repayment of shareholder bridging loan * 36.8

3 Working capital 5.9

4 Rights issue expenses 2.0

Total 96.0

*MD Lim Han Weng advanced Yinson funds to bridge the FSO capex prior to completion

of the Rights Issue. Subsequently, the allocation to repay MD Lim Han Weng will be set-

off directly against his rights issue obligations.

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB

Strengthened share base and gearing level. Post the private

placement and rights issue exercises, Yinson‟s share base now stands

at 188m (+275%) with shareholders funds at RM238m as at end-FY12.

Current net debt of RM185m (net gearing: 0.8x) will rise to RM454m

(+145%) proforma once loans for the FSO and OSVs (i.e. c. RM368m)

are fully drawn down, raising proforma net gearing to 1.7x (from 1.1x).

Page 7: Maybank IB Researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · Expanding profile Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore marine services (i.e

Yinson Holdings

21 March 2012 Page 7 of 16

Still room to gear up further. While the 1.7x net gearing level appears

high, RM150m of the Group‟s borrowings are due to its trading

operations. These are largely short-term debts (i.e. bankers‟

acceptances, trade finance, revolving credit), which are backed by its

trade receivables. Stripping out this debt, Yinson‟s net gearing would

be about 1.2x, which we believe is reasonable, especially since the

long-term nature of Yinson‟s current offshore marine charter contracts

would provide sufficient cashflows to meet repayments.

Has the balance sheet for another FSO/FPSO project on JV basis.

Assuming a maximum net gearing level of 1.7x (i.e. its current peak

level), we estimate that Yinson could take on up to RM250m in new

debt (in FY15) to fund another new small-size floating solution (i.e. an

FSO or FPSO), provided it adopts an equity holding level of <50%. In

the absence of further newbuilds, we estimate its net gearing level

could drop to below 0.5x by FY16 due to the strong cashflow stream.

Net debt and net gearing level (FY05-FY16)

93 143 90 118 73 92 181 185 454 371 271 170

1.7

2.3

1.21.3

0.70.9

1.5

0.8

1.7

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F FY15F FY16F

Net debt (RM m) LHS Net gearing (x) RHS (x)(RM m)

Source: Maybank-IB

FSO, PSV and AHTS contract value vs. capex

133.6 102.9

1010.0

450.0

1,143.7

552.9

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Contract Value Capex

PSV & AHTS FSO Bein Dong(RM m)

Source: Maybank-IB

Page 8: Maybank IB Researchupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0322/1332405274739.pdf · Expanding profile Four core divisions. The group is predominantly involved in offshore marine services (i.e

Yinson Holdings

21 March 2012 Page 8 of 16

Positive outlook

Another floating solution project in the offing? We believe its

current FSO contract will be a major boost to Yinson, both operationally

(track record) and financially (cashflow), when tendering for the next

contract. We identify Vietnam and Malaysia as prospective markets for

Yinson to expand its floating solutions fleet size.

(i) Vietnam. Vietnam is anticipated to roll out up to seven offshore

projects between 2012 and 2014 which will require floating

solutions (FPSO, FSO or MOPU). The following fields have been

identified as potential prospects for floating solutions: (i) Lam Son,

(ii) Gau Chua-Ca, (iii) Ham Rong, (iv) Chevron‟s Block B, (v) Dai

Nga, (vi) Block 102/106 and (vii) Lac Da Vang.

(ii) Malaysia. Malaysia too could be a prospective market for Yinson

due to the slew of floating solution awards expected soon. The

fields that may be of interest are the: (i) Kamelia, (ii) Belud, (iii)

Bunga Dahlia and Teratai and (iv) Spaoh fields.

Prospective floating solution projects identified

Country Operator Description

Vietnam PetroVietnam/

PETRONAS

• We expect the Lam Son Joint Operating Company‟s FPSO contract to be awarded in 2012. The

FPSO will develop two oilfields in the Cuu Long basin. The field, co-owned by PetroVietnam and

PETRONAS, requires a FPSO with up to 18,000 bpd of oils processing capacity and storage

space for 350,000 barrels. The FPSO will initially process oil from the Thang Long fields, followed

by the Dong Do field.

• We understand that the bid for the Lam Son FPSO now hangs in the balance due to financing

issues faced by LOI recipient Fred Olsen. Should Yinson enter a bid for this job, it will be

competing head on with none other than Bumi Armada.

• Other potential projects we believe Yinson could bid for are: (i) Gau Chua-Ca Cho, a marginal

field in Southern Vietnam which will call for a small FPSO, c. 8,000-10,000 bpd processing

capability, with first oil targeted for 2015, (ii) Ham Rong, located in the Tonkin Gulf (Northern

Vietnam) could use an FPSO (c. 25,000 bpd processing) or MOPU/FSO combination; first oil is

targeted for 2014 and (iii) Chevron’s Block B, located in the in the Gulf of Thailand, will use an

FSO to store condensates at its planned gas processing platform.

• There are three other projects in Vietnam; (i) Dai Nga, (ii) Blk 102/106 and (iii) Lac Da Vang,

which require FPSO, MOPU/ FSO or fixed platforms as production solutions. These projects are

scheduled to hit first oil in 2013-2015. These projects are at the „planned or being studied‟ stage.

Malaysia PETRONAS/ Hess/

Shell

• Up to 4 FPSO projects could be awarded this year in Malaysia. They are:

(i) SB 302 (Belud),

(ii) PM301/PM325 (Kamelia),

(iii) PM302 (Bunga Dahlia and Teratai) and

(iv) Gumusut-Kakap (a temporary FPSO with a short- medium-term charters)

• The first three are “fast-tracked” projects brought forward to boost Malaysian gas supply needs

with first gas/oil is targeted for 2014, while the last is a short-term contract.

• Belud FPSO - It has been reported that the M3nergy and EMAS consortium submitted the lowest

bid in a recent tender for the Belud FPSO, offering the FPSO Lewek Arunothai whose charter

was prematurely terminated in Thailand‟s Arthit field in 4Q2011. However, considering the FPSO

Arunothai‟s chequered operating history, Hess is reported to have offered Bumi and MISC a

second chance to match the consortium‟s bid.

• Kamelia and Bunga Dahlia & Teratai FPSOs - Both the Kamelia and Bunga Dahlia/Teratai

projects will require floating solutions for field development. With both fields targeted to achieve

first gas by 2014, we expect contract awards by this year. Should M3Nergy win the Belud job, we

reckon either Bumi or MISC could win one of these.

• Spaoh FPSO. The Spaoh field aka NC3 will likely use an FPSO or fixed platform. Further

appraisal is being planned. This field will hit first oil by 2014/16.

Sources: International Maritime Associates, Inc, Upstream online, Maybank-IB

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Financials 4QFYE1/12 results preview. We expect Yinson to report core net

profit of RM8m in 4QFY12 (+9% YoY), fuelled by higher contributions

from: (i) its new 5,000bhp AHTS, which was successfully charted out in

Oct 2011, and (ii) margin expansion for its logistics services, stemming

from its new focus on O&G-related activities. This will bring FY12

earnings to RM25m (+49% YoY) and represents a commendable 3-

year net profit CAGR of 25% (FY10-12). In addition, we expect Yinson

to declare a first and final gross DPS of 2.5sen (unchanged YoY),

representing a 14% dividend payout ratio (DPR) for FY12.

Secured growth path. Going forward, we forecast that Yinson will

deliver net profit of RM31m in FY13 (+25% YoY), RM45m in FY14

(+44% YoY) and RM58m in FY15 (+29% YoY). This implies a 3-year

net profit CAGR of 32%. Growth in FY13 will be driven by its two new

vessels (i.e. 8,000-10,000bhp AHTS) coming onstream in the coming

months, while FY14 will see a maiden contribution from its FSO

operations. Overall, Yinson will enjoy the full-year effect contributions

from these three newbuilds in FY15.

Well-structured 3-year net profit CAGR of 32%. We estimate the two

OSVs will add a combined RM7m-15m p.a. to net profit while its FSO

will add between RM15m and RM27m p.a., based on its 49% stake. To

sum it up, we are optimistic of Yinson‟s multi-tiered earnings growth

profile. As its cash pile builds up, we foresee Yinson securing another

floater project to maintain its stellar earnings growth momentum, while

developing the Phu My port into its future earnings driver.

Segmental earnings breakdown FYE Jan (RM m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Revenue 640.8 672.8 651.9 668.0 685.6

-Logistics 103.4 80.4 75.0 75.0 75.0

- Marine 49.4 75.8 75.8 92.0 109.6

-Trading 504.7 516.5 501.0 501.0 501.0

EBIT 33.0 41.6 50.7 67.4 79.4

-Logistics 0.7 7.5 5.1 5.3 5.4

- Marine 3.2 13.8 28.3 51.8 63.7

-Trading 29.3 20.3 17.3 10.3 10.3

EBIT margin (%) 4.9 6.2 7.8 10.1 11.6

DPS (sen) 0.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB

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Valuations

Initiating coverage with a RM2.20 target price. This implies an

undemanding PER of just 9x on FY14 earnings, on a relatively low

PEG ratio of 0.4x, for a growth stock with a 3-year net profit CAGR of

32%. Our target price is based on a sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation.

The OSVs and FSO are valued on a discounted cash flow

(DCF) basis, with a WACC of 8.3%. We feel DCF is

appropriate, as its OSVs and FSO are chartered out on long-

term contracts (typically between 7 and 20 years). Our estimate

of the FSO‟s DCF value takes into account the project‟s debt

burden, hence the relatively lower value vs. the OSV

operations (where the debt is incorporated at the group level).

We value its trading operations at 0.9x book value, on a cash

holding basis. The 0.9x valuation occurs as we impose a 10%

discount to account for collection risk/liquidation cost in the

event the operations are discontinued,

We value the logistics services operation on a 5x FY14 PER

multiple, a fair gauge based on PERs of local peers,

We value its port operations at a conservative 1x book value.

Though there is further upside potential, we withhold our

forecasts pending further clarity on their development plans,

We ascribe a resale value to the FSO‟s hull, post-deployment,

considering the FSO offers a newbuild hull with a 30-year

design life span, allowing cheaper reconversion.

Sum-of-parts (SOP) valuations

Operations Value

(RM’m)

Value

(RM/share)

Description

OSV 187.2 1.00 DCF based on 3 AHTS and 1 PSV; blended IRR of 15.7%; 8.3% WACC

FSO 125.7 0.67 DCF based on 49% stake; 16.0% IRR; 8.3% WACC

Trading operations

106.1 0.56 Receivables + cash – payables –short

term debt @ 90% recovery rate

Port operations 26.4 0.14 @ 1x BV of 40% stake

Logistics 19.7 0.10 @ 5x PE

FSO resale 25.0 0.13 @ 49% stake of FSO hull

Long term debt (75.1) (0.40)

Total 415.0 2.20

Source: Maybank-IB

Our sensitivity analysis shows a 19 sen/share impact on our RM2.20

SOP value for every 1ppt rise in our WACC assumption. At our RM2.20

SOP, the stock will trade at a FY13 PER of 13x and FY14 PER of 9x, in

line with its peers with market cap of below RM1b (see overleaf).

Further earnings upside could materialise, should Yinson clinch a

second floating solutions contract. We understand that management

plans to continue on a measured fleet renewal programme whilst

keeping its financial discipline. Whilst it is still early days, Yinson is

contemplating a policy of disposing its OSVs as they come off charter,

and potentially reinvesting in newer vessels to maintain a young,

competitive fleet.

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Peer comparison of small cap O&G stocks with market cap of below RM1b (calenderised)

Company Mkt cap Price TP EPS (sen) EPS Grth (%)

PE (x)

DPS (sen)

Div Yield (%)

Net gearing

PBV

(RM’m) (RM) (RM) 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F (x) (x)

Alam Maritim 582.5 0.74 0.92 9.9 10.3 NM 3.4 7.5 7.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0

Perdana Pet 344.1 0.70 0.83 4.9 6.7 NM 36.8 14.1 10.3 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.6 0.3 0.7

Tj. Offshore 248.7 0.85 0.70 3.0 3.2 NM 6.8 28.0 26.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.8

Perisai * 762.3 0.90 NA 10.7 10.7 NM 2.8 8.4 8.1 NM NM NM NM 0.7 2.2

Petra Energy * 238.1 1.11 NA 12.7 13.7 NM 14.2 8.7 7.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.7

Uzma * 158.4 1.98 NA 18.9 40.0 25.2 111.6 10.5 5.0 2.5 5.9 1.3 3.0 cash 2.2

Handal * 68.8 0.43 NA 3.7 NA NM NA 11.5 NA 1.0 NA 2.4 NA 0.1 0.7

Simple average 12.4 10.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.3

Simple average (ex-Tj. Offshore, Uzma) 10.5 8.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9

Source: Maybank-IB * consensus estimates

Risk factors

Yinson‟s business profile opens the group to multiple business risks.

Below is a non-exhaustive list of the major risks confronting Yinson.

Oil price levels affect long-term investment plans.

Malaysia‟s and Vietnam‟s investment plans are dependent on

long-term oil price expectations, which can be affected by low

and/or volatile oil price levels. Our economics team projects an

average crude oil price in 2012 of USD115/bbl (Brent) and

USD100/bbl (WTI) which are conducive for oil & gas activities.

Financial leverage. Yinson has and will maintain a significant

level of leverage in line with the floating solutions‟ industry

norm. High debt service and other contractual obligations will

render Yinson sensitive to interruption in cashflows.

Contractual requirements. Floating solutions contracts

require Yinson to manage conversion cost, delivery schedules

and vendors throughout the process, for equipment, manpower

and yard space. Failure could result in damaging cost

overruns.

Client exposure. Yinson‟s main offshore marine services client

for now is PetroVietnam, leaving the group susceptible to

single client risk.

Track record. Yinson is still breaking new ground with its initial

FSO and thus will have to work harder than other, more

established players to secure its next job.

Counterparty risk. Yinson does not have a PETRONAS

license to operate in Malaysia. To bid for Malaysian jobs,

Yinson will have to partner local licensees, exposing it to

counterparty risk.

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Directors and Management

Name Designation Remarks

Lim Han Weng Chairman, Managing

Director

Co-founder and a major shareholder

With Yinson since 1984

Lim Han Joeh Executive Director With Yinson since 1984

Bachelor, Civil Engineering, Monash University, Australia

Bah Kim Lian Executive Director Co founder, spouse of Lim Han Weng

With Yinson since 1984

Responsible for group customer services

Dato‟ Adi Azmari bin BK Koya

Moideen Kutty

Non-Executive Director 28-year civil engineering veteran, with a career spanning both the public &

private sectors

M. IT in Business, Lincolnshire & Humberside University

Bah Koon Chye Executive Director Joined Yinson in 1989

MBA, Strathclyde University, UK

Kam Chai Hong Independent Non-

Executive Director

39 years experience in auditing

ACCA, MIA

Tuan Haji Hassan bin Ibrahim Independent Non-Executive Director

30 years of legal practice

LLB, Lincoln‟s Inn, UK, BA, History, UM, KL

Lim Chern Yuan Executive Director Joined Yinson in 2005

Bachelor of Commerce, Melbourne University, Australia

Source: Company

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INCOME STATEMENT (RM m) BALANCE SHEET (RM m)

FY Jan 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F FY Jan 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

Revenue 640.8 672.8 651.9 668.0 Fixed Assets 127.2 139.6 508.6 479.3

EBITDA 39.0 49.4 64.2 97.1 Other LT Assets 11.2 56.5 23.5 23.5

Depreciation & Amortisation (7.6) (8.7) (15.1) (32.4) Cash/ST Investments 9.1 38.2 61.1 80.9

Operating Profit (EBIT) 31.4 40.6 49.1 64.8 Other Current Assets 237.6 275.1 241.8 230.4

Interest (Exp)/Inc (7.8) (9.1) (13.7) (17.2) Total Assets 385.1 509.3 834.9 814.2

Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

One-offs 1.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 ST Debt 143.9 148.2 146.7 145.2

Pre-Tax Profit 25.0 32.5 37.0 50.3 Other Current Liabilities 70.5 45.2 49.8 49.2

Tax (6.8) (6.5) (4.1) (2.4) LT Debt 46.0 75.1 368.2 306.2

Minority Interest (0.3) (0.3) 1.6 2.7 Other LT Liabilities 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1

Net Profit 18.5 26.2 31.3 45.1 Minority Interest 0.0 (0.1) 1.5 4.3

Recurring Net Profit 16.8 25.0 31.3 45.1 Shareholders' Equity 121.9 238.0 265.8 306.2

Total Liabilities-Capital 385.1 509.3 834.9 814.2

Revenue Growth % 36.3% 5.0% (3.1)% 2.5%

EBITDA Growth (%) 76.6% 26.6% 30.1% 51.2% Share Capital (m) 68.5 188.4 188.4 188.4

EBIT Growth (%) 116.8% 29.4% 20.8% 32.0% Gross Debt/(Cash) 190.0 223.3 514.9 451.5

Net Profit Growth (%) 133.2% 41.5% 19.3% 44.3% Net Debt/(Cash) 180.8 185.1 453.8 370.5

Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 137.6% 48.8% 24.9% 44.3% Working Capital 32.3 119.8 106.4 116.9

Tax Rate % 27.0% 20.1% 11.1% 4.8%

CASH FLOW (RM m) RATES & RATIOS

FY Jan 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F FY Jan 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

Profit before taxation 25.0 32.5 37.0 50.3 EBITDA Margin % 6.1% 7.3% 9.9% 14.5%

Depreciation 7.6 8.7 15.1 32.4 Op. Profit Margin % 4.9% 6.0% 7.5% 9.7%

Net interest receipts/(payments) (7.8) (9.1) (13.7) (17.2) Net Profit Margin % 2.9% 3.9% 4.8% 6.8%

Working capital change (42.9) (62.7) 37.8 10.8 ROE % 16.3% 14.6% 12.4% 15.8%

Cash tax paid (6.8) (6.5) (4.1) (2.4) ROA % 5.9% 5.9% 4.7% 5.5%

Others (incl'd exceptional items) 8.2 18.2 27.4 34.5 Net Margin Ex. El % 2.6% 3.7% 4.8% 6.8%

Cash flow from operations (16.7) (18.9) 99.6 108.2 Dividend Cover (x) 13.1 5.6 6.6 9.6

Capex (19.9) (21.7) (384.0) (3.0) Interest Cover (x) (4.0) (4.5) (3.6) (3.8)

Disposal/(purchase) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Asset Turnover (x) 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.8

Others 1.2 (47.0) 33.0 0.0 Asset/Debt (x) 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.8

Cash flow from investing (18.7) (68.7) (351.0) (3.0) Debtors Turn (days) 110.5 136.8 142.9 127.2

Debt raised/(repaid) 41.5 33.4 291.6 (63.4) Creditors Turn (days) 37.4 46.4 58.0 61.2

Equity raised/(repaid) 0.0 96.0 0.0 0.0 Inventory Turn (days) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Dividends (paid) (1.4) (3.5) (3.5) (4.7) Net Gearing % 1.5 0.8 1.7 1.2

Interest payments (7.8) (9.1) (13.7) (17.2) Debt/ EBITDA (x) 4.9 4.5 8.0 4.6

Others 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Debt/ Market Cap (x) 0.6 0.7 1.6 1.4

Cash flow from financing 40.2 116.7 274.3 (85.4)

Change in cash 4.9 29.0 22.9 19.9

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB

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ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES

MALAYSIA WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research

(603) 2297 8686 [email protected] Strategy Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CH’NG, ACA

(603) 2297 8680 [email protected] Banking - Regional LIAW Thong Jung

(603) 2297 8688 [email protected] Oil & Gas Automotive Shipping ONG Chee Ting

(603) 2297 8678 [email protected] Plantations Mohshin AZIZ

(603) 2297 8692 [email protected] Aviation Petrochem Power YIN Shao Yang, CPA

(603) 2297 8916 [email protected] Gaming – Regional

Media Power WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] Property & REITs LEE Yen Ling

(603) 2297 8691 [email protected] Building Materials Manufacturing Technology LEE Cheng Hooi Head of Retail

[email protected] Technicals

HONG KONG / CHINA Edward FUNG Head of Research (852) 2268 0632 [email protected] Construction Ivan CHEUNG

(852) 2268 0634 [email protected] Property Industrial Ivan LI

(852) 2268 0641 [email protected] Banking & Finance Jacqueline KO

(852) 2268 0633 [email protected] Consumer Staples Andy POON

(852) 2268 0645 [email protected] Telecom & equipment Samantha KWONG (852) 2268 0640 [email protected] Consumer Discretionaries Alex YEUNG

(852) 2268 0636 [email protected] Industrial Catherine CHAN

(852) 2268 0631 [email protected] Cement

INDIA Jigar SHAH Head of Research

(91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected] Oil & Gas Automobile Cement Anubhav GUPTA

(91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected] Metal & Mining Capital goods Property Haripreet BATRA (91) 226623 2606 [email protected] Software Media Ganesh RAM (91) 226623 2607 [email protected] Telecom Contractor Gagan KWATRA

(91 )226623 2612 [email protected]

Small Cap

SINGAPORE Stephanie WONG Head of Research

(65) 6432 1451 [email protected] Strategy Small & Mid Caps Gregory YAP

(65) 6432 1450 [email protected] Technology & Manufacturing Telcos - Regional Rohan SUPPIAH

(65) 6432 1455 [email protected] Airlines Marine & Offshore Wilson LIEW

(65) 6432 1454 [email protected] Hotel & Resort Property & Construction Anni KUM

(65) 6432 1470 [email protected] Conglomerates REITs James KOH

(65) 6432 1431 [email protected] Logistics Resources Small/ Mid cap Eric ONG (65) 6432 1857 [email protected] Marine & Offshore Transportation Energy OOI Yi Tung

(65) 6433 5712 [email protected] Property & Construction YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6433 5730 [email protected] Retail & Consumer Engineering Infrastructure Alison FOK

(65) 6433 5745 [email protected] Services Bernard CHIN (65) 6433 5726 [email protected] Conglomerates Industrials

INDONESIA Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research

(62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected] Consumer Strategy Telcos Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected] Base metals Coal Heavy Equipment Oil & Gas Rahmi MARINA

(62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] Banking Multifinance Pandu ANUGRAH

(62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected] Auto Heavy equipment Plantation Toll road Adi N. WICAKSONO

(62) 21 2557 1130 [email protected] Generalist Anthony YUNUS (62) 21 2557 1134 [email protected] Cement Infrastructure Property Arwani PRANADJAYA

(62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected] Technicals

REGIONAL WONG Chew Hann, CA Regional Head of Research

(603) 2297 8686 [email protected] THAM Mun Hon

(852) 2268 0630 [email protected] Regional Strategist ONG Seng Yeow

(852) 2268 0644 [email protected] Regional Products & Planning

THAILAND Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN Head of Research

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1440 [email protected] Strategy Maria BRENDA SANCHEZ LAPIZ Co-Head of Research Dir (66)-2257-0250 | (66)-2658-6300 ext 1399 [email protected] PEERASUB

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1430 [email protected] Media Commerce Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1400 [email protected] Energy Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1520 [email protected] Property Woraphon WIROONSRI

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1560 [email protected] Banking & Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1404 [email protected] Transportation Small cap. Suchot THIRAWANNARAT

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1550 [email protected] Automotive Construction Materials Soft commodity

PHILIPPINES Luz LORENZO Head of Research

+63 2 849 8836 [email protected] Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO

(63) 2 849 8840 [email protected] Utilities Conglomerates Telcos Lovell SARREAL

(63) 2 849 8841 [email protected] Consumer Media Cement Mining Kenneth NERECINA

(63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] Conglomerates Property Ports/ Logistics Katherine TAN

(63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] Banks Construction

VIETNAM Michael Kokalari, CFA Head of Research

+84 838 38 66 47 [email protected] Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected] Confectionary and Beverage Oil and Gas Ngo Bich Van

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8084 [email protected] Banking Insurance Nguyen Quang Duy

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8082 [email protected] Resources Property Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep

+84 444 55 58 88 x 8208 [email protected] Property & Construction Power Dang Thi Kim Thoa

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8083 [email protected] Consumer & Services Technology & Telecom Nguyen Trung Hoa

+84 844 55 58 88 Pharmaceutical Fishery

ECONOMICS Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist

(603) 2297 8682 [email protected] Singapore | Malaysia Luz LORENZO Economist

(63) 2 849 8836 [email protected] Philippines | Indonesia

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APPENDIX 1

Definition of Ratings

Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system:

BUY Total return is expected to be above 15% in the next 12 months

HOLD Total return is expected to be between -15% to 15% in the next 12 months

SELL Total return is expected to be below -15% in the next 12 months

Applicability of Ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are

only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not

carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):

Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings

BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth

CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio

Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter

CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset

DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share

NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders‟ Funds

EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year

EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date

EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax

Disclaimer

This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation

of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each

security‟s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental

ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on

price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors may

receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to

provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the

particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding

the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently

verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report

by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct,

indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its

affiliates and related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have

positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an

underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and

other services for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at

any time, without prior notice.

This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”,

“believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”,

“should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions

made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ

materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-

looking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking

statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrenc e of unanticipated

events.

This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Berhad's clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted

to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank

Investment Bank Berhad and Maybank Investment Bank Berhad accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any

locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

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Malaysia

Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank,

100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194

Singapore

Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd 9 Temasek Boulevard #39-00 Suntec Tower 2

Singapore 038989 Tel: (65) 6336 9090 Fax: (65) 6339 6003

London

Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd 6/F, 20 St. Dunstan’s Hill London EC3R 8HY, UK

Tel: (44) 20 7621 9298 Dealers’ Tel: (44) 20 7626 2828 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6674

New York

Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc 777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.

Tel: (212) 688 8886 Fax: (212) 688 3500

Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank,

No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888 Fax: (603) 2282 5136

Hong Kong

Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd

Level 30, Three Pacific Place, 1 Queen’s Road East, Hong Kong

Tel: (852) 2268 0800 Fax: (852) 2877 0104

Indonesia

PT Kim Eng Securities

Plaza Bapindo Citibank Tower 17th Floor Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55 Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188 Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189

India

Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd

2nd Floor, The International 16, Maharishi Karve Road, Churchgate Station, Mumbai City - 400 020, India

Tel: (91).22.6623.2600 Fax: (91).22.6623.2604

Philippines

Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc. 17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza

Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue Makati City, Philippines 1200 Tel: (63) 2 849 8888

Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

Thailand

Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited

999/9 The Offices at Central World, 20th - 21st Floor, Rama 1 Road Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand

Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales) Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

Vietnam

In association with

Kim Eng Vietnam Securities Company 1st Floor, 255 Tran Hung Dao St. District 1

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel : (84) 838 38 66 36 Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39

Saudi Arabia

In association with

Anfaal Capital Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Street P.O. Box 126575

Jeddah 21352 Tel: (966) 2 6068686 Fax: (966) 26068787

South Asia Sales Trading

Connie TAN [email protected] Tel: (65) 6333 5775 US Toll Free: 1 866 406 7447

North Asia Sales Trading

Eddie LAU [email protected] Tel: (852) 2268 0800 US Toll Free: 1 866 598 2267

www.maybank-ke.com | www.kimengresearch.com.sg

APPENDIX 1

Additional Disclaimer (for purpose of distribution in Singapore) This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein maybe subject to change. Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd ("KERPL") in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. Recipients of this report are to contact KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. As of 21 March 2012, KERPL does not have an interest in the said company/companies.

Additional Disclaimer (for purpose of distribution in the United States) This research report prepared by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Kim Eng Securities USA, a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Kim Eng Securities USA in the US shall be borne by Kim Eng. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This report is not directed at you if Kim Eng Securities is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Kim Eng Securities is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply i f the reader is receiving or accessing this report in or from other than Malaysia. As of 21 March 2012, Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this Market themes report. Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of

the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Additional Disclaimer (for purpose of distribution in the United Kingdom) This document is being distributed by Kim Eng Securities Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

Published / Printed by

Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H)

(A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)

33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194

Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur

Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136

http://www.maybank-ib.com