may town center presentation to metro planning

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May Town Center Presentation to Metro Planning Regional Economic Impacts of Construction, Residential and Commercial Activity William W. Wade Energy and Water Economics April 16, 2008

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May Town Center Presentation to Metro Planning. Regional Economic Impacts of Construction, Residential and Commercial Activity William W. Wade Energy and Water Economics April 16, 2008. Presentation Outline. 1 . Regional Economic Impacts Briefly Introduced - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • May Town CenterPresentation toMetro PlanningRegional Economic Impacts of Construction, Residential and Commercial ActivityWilliam W. WadeEnergy and Water EconomicsApril 16, 2008

  • E&WE*Presentation Outline

    1. Regional Economic Impacts Briefly IntroducedOverview of May Town Center ProjectConstructionResidential SpendingOffice and CommercialTotal Regional Economic ImpactsGovernment Revenues

  • E&WE*May Town CenterFive Easy Numbers

    Morf Inputs

    Bell's Landing Project AnalysisFeb 1 2008

    Universal Occupancy Rate

    OfficeSquare FeetPrice/SFBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorptionRate/Yr(Office & Commercial)

    Office Core4,000,000220152010-20242012-20260.06666666670.95

    Office Campus3,000,000200152010-20242012-20260.0666666667

    Corporate Office3,000,000180152010-20242012-20260.0666666667

    CommercialSquare FeetPrice/SFBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorption 1Rate1/YrAbsorption 2Rate2/YrAbsorption 3Rate3/Yr

    Retail (cmcl*80%)1,200,000300152010-20242012-20160.052017-20210.122022-20260.03

    Restaurant (cmcl*20%)300,000300152010-20242012-20160.052017-20210.122022-20260.03

    ResidentialSquare FeetAvg Pr/SFUnitsAvg SF/UnitAvg Pr/UnitBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorptionRate/Yr

    Urban Core3,360,0002682,4001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    Other3,640,0002682,6001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    All Residential7,000,0002685,0001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    Hard ConstructionCost/SF20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core175$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667

    Office Campus150$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000

    Corporate Office125$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000

    Cmcl-Retail165$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant295$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000

    All Residential140$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333

    Total Hard Construction:$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000

    Absorption/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000

    All Residential$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000

    Cumulative Absorption (Mkt Value)20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)$55,733,333$111,466,667$167,200,000$222,933,333$278,666,667$334,400,000$390,133,333$445,866,667$501,600,000$557,333,333$613,066,667$668,800,000$724,533,333$780,266,667$836,000,000

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)$38,000,000$76,000,000$114,000,000$152,000,000$190,000,000$228,000,000$266,000,000$304,000,000$342,000,000$380,000,000$418,000,000$456,000,000$494,000,000$532,000,000$570,000,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)$34,200,000$68,400,000$102,600,000$136,800,000$171,000,000$205,200,000$239,400,000$273,600,000$307,800,000$342,000,000$376,200,000$410,400,000$444,600,000$478,800,000$513,000,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)$17,100,000$34,200,000$51,300,000$68,400,000$85,500,000$126,540,000$167,580,000$208,620,000$249,660,000$290,700,000$300,960,000$311,220,000$321,480,000$331,740,000$342,000,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)$4,275,000$8,550,000$12,825,000$17,100,000$21,375,000$31,635,000$41,895,000$52,155,000$62,415,000$72,675,000$75,240,000$77,805,000$80,370,000$82,935,000$85,500,000

    All Residential$125,000,000$250,000,000$375,000,000$500,000,000$625,000,000$750,000,000$875,000,000$1,000,000,000$1,125,000,000$1,250,000,000$1,375,000,000$1,500,000,000$1,625,000,000$1,750,000,000$1,875,000,000$1,875,000,000

    Aggregated Market Value20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office$127,933,333$255,866,667$383,800,000$511,733,333$639,666,667$767,600,000$895,533,333$1,023,466,667$1,151,400,000$1,279,333,333$1,407,266,667$1,535,200,000$1,663,133,333$1,791,066,667$1,919,000,000

    Commercial$21,375,000$42,750,000$64,125,000$85,500,000$106,875,000$158,175,000$209,475,000$260,775,000$312,075,000$363,375,000$376,200,000$389,025,000$401,850,000$414,675,000$427,500,000

    Total Office+Commercial$149,308,333$298,616,667$447,925,000$597,233,333$746,541,667$925,775,000$1,105,008,333$1,284,241,667$1,463,475,000$1,642,708,333$1,783,466,667$1,924,225,000$2,064,983,333$2,205,741,667$2,346,500,000

    Residential$125,000,000$250,000,000$375,000,000$500,000,000$625,000,000$750,000,000$875,000,000$1,000,000,000$1,125,000,000$1,250,000,000$1,375,000,000$1,500,000,000$1,625,000,000$1,750,000,000$1,875,000,000$1,875,000,000

    Grand Total Value$125,000,000$399,308,333$673,616,667$947,925,000$1,222,233,333$1,496,541,667$1,800,775,000$2,105,008,333$2,409,241,667$2,713,475,000$3,017,708,333$3,283,466,667$3,549,225,000$3,814,983,333$4,080,741,667$4,221,500,000

    Cumulative Office & Cmcl SF/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)253,333506,667760,0001,013,3331,266,6671,520,0001,773,3332,026,6672,280,0002,533,3332,786,6673,040,0003,293,3333,546,6673,800,000

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)190,000380,000570,000760,000950,0001,140,0001,330,0001,520,0001,710,0001,900,0002,090,0002,280,0002,470,0002,660,0002,850,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)190,000380,000570,000760,000950,0001,140,0001,330,0001,520,0001,710,0001,900,0002,090,0002,280,0002,470,0002,660,0002,850,000

    TOTAL CUMULATIVE OCCUPIED OFFICE SF/YR633,3331,266,6671,900,0002,533,3333,166,6673,800,0004,433,3335,066,6675,700,0006,333,3336,966,6677,600,0008,233,3338,866,6679,500,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)57,000114,000171,000228,000285,000421,800558,600695,400832,200969,0001,003,2001,037,4001,071,6001,105,8001,140,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)14,25028,50042,75057,00071,250105,450139,650173,850208,050242,250250,800259,350267,900276,450285,000

    Cumulative Families/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Cumulative Number of Families (Units)3336671,0001,3331,6672,0002,3332,6673,0003,3333,6674,0004,3334,6675,0005,000

    Wtd Avg Income/Family:$153,000Total Income:$51,000,000$102,000,000$153,000,000$204,000,000$255,000,000$306,000,000$357,000,000$408,000,000$459,000,000$510,000,000$561,000,000$612,000,000$663,000,000$714,000,000$765,000,000$765,000,000

    Retail Purchases Rate:0.184Retail Buying:$9,384,000$18,768,000$28,152,000$37,536,000$46,920,000$56,304,000$65,688,000$75,072,000$84,456,000$93,840,000$103,224,000$112,608,000$121,992,000$131,376,000$140,760,000$140,760,000$79,177,500

    Tax & Rev ParametersMkt Val Assess FactorEff RatePer $ BasisTotal Factor$ Source

    Ofc & Cmcl Property0.40$4.04$100.000.01616Assess Mkt

    Residential Property0.25$4.04$100.000.0101Assess Mkt

    Other Local Fee Revsna$757.00Per Household757Households

    Local Option Sales1.00$0.0225$1.000.0225Gross Sales--incl constr mtls cost (hard cost*0.6)

    Tax & Other Revenues20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Total

    Offc & Cmcl Property$2,412,823$4,825,645$7,238,468$9,651,291$12,064,113$14,960,524$17,856,935$20,753,345$23,649,756$26,546,167$28,820,821$31,095,476$33,370,131$35,644,785$37,919,440$306,809,720

    Residential Property$1,262,500$2,525,000$3,787,500$5,050,000$6,312,500$7,575,000$8,837,500$10,100,000$11,362,500$12,625,000$13,887,500$15,150,000$16,412,500$17,675,000$18,937,500$18,937,500$170,437,500

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$252,333$504,667$757,000$1,009,333$1,261,667$1,514,000$1,766,333$2,018,667$2,271,000$2,523,333$2,775,667$3,028,000$3,280,333$3,532,667$3,785,000$3,785,000$34,065,000

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$211,140$422,280$633,420$844,560$1,055,700$1,266,840$1,477,980$1,689,120$1,900,260$2,111,400$2,322,540$2,533,680$2,744,820$2,955,960$3,167,100$3,167,100$28,503,900

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$0$0$37,685,250

    Total Revenues$2,512,350$4,238,323$8,377,119$12,515,915$16,654,711$20,793,507$24,932,303$29,554,687$34,177,071$38,799,455$43,421,839$48,044,223$52,044,851$56,045,479$60,046,107$61,534,385$63,809,040$577,501,370

    Direct Office & Commercial Employment201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Jobs:2,5335,0677,60010,13312,66715,20017,73320,26722,80025,33327,86730,40032,93335,46738,000

    NAICSRetail Jobs:1783565347138911,3181,7462,1732,6013,0283,1353,2423,3493,4563,563

    See Breakout BelowSF/Office Job:25041,563

    44SF/Retail Job:400Retail Jobs:1432854285707131,0551,3971,7392,0812,4232,5082,5942,6792,7652,850

    7221SF/Restaurant Job:400Restrnt Jobs:3671107143178264349435520606627648670691713

    Industry Breakout for Direct Office Jobs201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    NAICSSectorProportionCompetitive

    551Management of Companies0.05Yes1272533805076337608871,0131,1401,2671,3931,5201,6471,7731,900

    561Administrative & Support0.40Yes1,0132,0273,0404,0535,0676,0807,0938,1079,12010,13311,14712,16013,17314,18715,200

    541Professional, R&D, Tech0.30Partly Yes7601,5202,2803,0403,8004,5605,3206,0806,8407,6008,3609,1209,88010,64011,400

    52Financial & Insurance0.15Less3807601,1401,5201,9002,2802,6603,0403,4203,8004,1804,5604,9405,3205,700

    531Real Estate0.10Less2535077601,0131,2671,5201,7732,0272,2802,5332,7873,0403,2933,5473,800

    Total2,5335,0677,60010,13312,66715,20017,73320,26722,80025,33327,86730,40032,93335,46738,000

    Modeling Inputs20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Construction (by local final demand type; nat'l displacement because could invest anywhere; local productivity)

    Office+Cmcl$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$0$0

    Residential$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$0$0

    BLS: 2007*0.87 = 2002

    Office+Cmcl (/1000=input)105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,06700

    Residential (/1000=input)56,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84000

    Office Employment (new office jobs as nat'l displacement because could work anywhere; infer sales & payroll from #jobs; nat'l productivity)

    ABOVE: SEE INDUSTRY BREAKOUT FOR #DIRECT NEW OFFICE JOBS BY NAICS SECTOR

    Retail Commercial Employment (new retail jobs as local displacement, using direct high-productivity data for output [sales], jobs, & payroll)

    Wage rate:24,300(2007:2002)21,141

    Productivity:240,000(2007:2002)208,800

    Payroll (#jobs*wg rate/1000)3,0136,0259,03812,05015,06322,29329,52336,75443,98451,21453,02254,82956,63758,44460,252

    Sales (#jobs*prod*.25/1000)7,43914,87722,31629,75437,19355,04572,89790,750108,602126,455130,918135,381139,844144,307148,770

    Jobs (from NAICS 44 above)1432854285707131,0551,3971,7392,0812,4232,5082,5942,6792,7652,850

    Restaurant Commercial Employment (new restrnt jobs as local displacement, using direct high-productivity data for output [sales], jobs, & payroll)

    Wage rate:24,300(2007:2002)21,141

    Productivity:260,000(2007:2002)226,200

    Payroll (#jobs*wg rate/1000)7531,5062,2593,0133,7665,5737,3819,18810,99612,80413,25513,70714,15914,61115,063

    Sales (#jobs*prod/1000)8,05816,11724,17532,23440,29259,63278,97298,312117,652136,992141,827146,662151,497156,332161,168

    Jobs (NAICS 7221 above)3671107143178264349435520606627648670691713

    Graphics

    Hard Construction Costs $ Million

    Annually: 2010 - 2024 $ MillionTotalTotal Construction Jobs (Direct + Secondary)

    Office Core$47$700$0Number of Years15

    Office Campus$30$450$0Average Jobs Annually3,358

    Corporate Office$25$3750.000375Total Job-Years50,368

    Cmcl-Retail$13$1980

    Cmcl-Restaurant$6$890

    All Residential$65$9800.00098

    Total$186$2.8

    Billion

    May Town Center

    Broad Summary Impacts $ 2007

    $ million

    Total Employment @ 202695,234

    Total Wages paid @ 2026$6,330

    Davidson Cumulative Govt. Revenues$895

    Regional Output Inc @ 2026$15,720

    Economic Migrants by 2026 #82,200

    Graphics

    0.12500

    0.250.12793333330.021375

    0.3750.25586666670.04275

    0.50.38380.064125

    0.6250.51173333330.0855

    0.750.63966666670.106875

    0.8750.76760.158175

    10.89553333330.209475

    1.1251.02346666670.260775

    1.251.15140.312075

    1.3751.27933333330.363375

    1.51.40726666670.3762

    1.6251.53520.389025

    1.751.66313333330.40185

    1.8751.79106666670.414675

    1.8751.9190.4275

    Residential

    Office

    Commercial

    Aggregate Market Value$ Billion

    Chart Drivers

    333.3333333333

    666.6666666667

    1000

    1333.3333333333

    1666.6666666667

    2000

    2333.3333333333

    2666.6666666667

    3000

    3333.3333333333

    3666.6666666667

    4000

    4333.3333333333

    4666.6666666667

    5000

    5000

    Occupancy by Families

    Residential Build out - Units

    Sheet4

    519.384

    10218.768

    15328.152

    20437.536

    25546.92

    30656.304

    35765.688

    40875.072

    45984.456

    51093.84

    561103.224

    612112.608

    663121.992

    714131.376

    765140.76

    765140.76

    Total Income

    Retail Spending

    Residential Income & Spending$1,000,000

    126.66666666671013.3333333333760380253.3333333333

    253.33333333332026.66666666671520760506.6666666667

    380304022801140760

    506.66666666674053.3333333333304015201013.3333333333

    633.33333333335066.6666666667380019001266.6666666667

    7606080456022801520

    886.66666666677093.3333333333532026601773.3333333333

    1013.33333333338106.6666666667608030402026.6666666667

    11409120684034202280

    1266.666666666710133.3333333333760038002533.3333333333

    1393.333333333311146.6666666667836041802786.6666666667

    152012160912045603040

    1646.666666666713173.3333333333988049403293.3333333333

    1773.333333333314186.66666666671064053203546.6666666667

    1900152001140057003800

    Management

    Admin

    Professional

    Finance/Insurance

    Real Estate

    Direct Office Job Creation

    142.535.625

    28571.25

    427.5106.875

    570142.5

    712.5178.125

    1054.5263.625

    1396.5349.125

    1738.5434.625

    2080.5520.125

    2422.5605.625

    2508627

    2593.5648.375

    2679669.75

    2764.5691.125

    2850712.5

    Retail

    Restaurant

    Retail Sector Direct Job Creation

    919.8489358.3941199.58932209.98996

    917.40621357.27319198.95576209.27799

    1007.53739430.4873240.17716231.43584

    1081.4959497.51782278.06253249.94159

    1155.82114564.62028316.02482268.50895

    1230.50541631.77119354.0479287.13521

    1305.54105698.94987392.11738305.818

    1381.95527766.51294429.29799324.78696

    1458.67521834.08644466.55732343.80275

    1535.69479901.65636503.88208362.86381

    1613.00768969.231541.2753381.96968

    1690.608591036.79975578.72636401.11923

    1767.249571103.90965617.30454420.0342

    1844.200331171.02157655.8917438.999

    1921.455631238.12932694.48215458.01289

    1279.963141025.59569576.8006314.11671

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Davidson

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Construction Job Impacts

    0.01821349460.02018852090.00825832270.0039533989

    0.01908271530.02127197720.0086285930.0041294543

    0.10838461190.04756005670.01731365490.0070448994

    0.20026841940.07375846330.02598484080.0098978041

    0.29556346030.10093175190.03500315530.0128578715

    0.39432273560.1290791890.04436609190.0159248144

    0.49659055970.1581971730.05407016530.0190980528

    0.60381910040.188388240.06352789030.0223592309

    0.71453945470.21955071920.07332703790.0257267116

    0.8287687060.25167386530.08346176170.029199155

    0.9464323920.28475819170.09393400650.0327766664

    1.06753061210.31878914920.10473670520.0364575071

    1.1901214430.35361804450.11661668570.0402631371

    1.31603625940.38936928610.1288176790.0441693097

    1.44525462040.42602313510.1413310320.0481737534

    1.55793911130.44127779420.14521388830.0479829757

    1.6936014790.47969021110.158337250.0521789376

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Investment Demand Growth: Non-Residential $ Billion

    2.3496070233.03372164371.54891367820.8266693908

    2.34743894253.03339978161.5435369310.8266119655

    9.20792614947.89655064373.19199836782.0299353103

    16.33446695412.95499694254.91369680463.2798515172

    23.72633990818.21200160926.70539260924.5772866207

    31.380956229923.66594880468.56657249435.9218058621

    39.295198275929.314787206910.49654874717.3128793793

    47.520123620735.157354287312.38852054028.7512682759

    56.002461494241.193248195414.349052494210.2358328621

    64.737679988547.419263781616.377027942511.7657856207

    73.725121632253.834662183918.472377011513.3409857126

    82.959536758660.435631712620.633736563214.9605123218

    92.366147816167.216643701122.995671413816.6217151264

    102.010924344874.176352057525.421110770118.3256418851

    111.887728459781.310197068927.908402678220.0712080115

    119.656594850585.624985068928.941886620721.044213023

    129.983980390893.099238402331.550796735622.8714531494

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Investment Demand Growth: Residential $ 1,000,000

    1224.665821395.32394630.41643316.95157

    1215.996481388.0806624.21077315.11037

    5439.229672556.592531150.46763533.98144

    9666.466923716.390451675.41442750.29437

    13911.980644887.108552205.0891968.43688

    18172.355126067.994062739.105641188.26426

    22448.232077258.308493277.082741409.63746

    26863.192078419.016633742.712931625.10119

    31294.65199589.741724214.719491842.22811

    35744.0848110769.670614692.57222060.87072

    40206.7127411958.384145176.125032280.94697

    44684.101713155.100315664.863542502.31839

    48997.3238914403.791626247.899412733.38316

    53272.0707915657.590986832.481232965.20166

    57642.3898816915.895857418.316943197.67451

    60995.7908117079.282687512.565633182.74576

    65344.2449718361.874718107.891673420.15306

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Job Creation Direct plus Secondary

    0.14801258670.14839024490.06653987220.0306540259

    0.14869441440.15011883830.06657520110.0307040296

    0.71725807220.33285991380.13013601630.0505432356

    1.30474072040.52084988090.19630547680.0710951482

    1.91245305990.71585752460.26516745040.0924203955

    2.54041767440.9178836390.33670664380.1145170745

    3.18857317921.12690933940.41090061950.137381219

    3.87366793111.34218682310.48198591050.1606805775

    4.57926807441.56446135580.55572229490.1847473923

    5.30512724561.79366321580.63206930640.209572172

    6.05157346782.02977952050.7110315840.2351553823

    6.81826849022.27271305770.7925588760.2614846486

    7.58376788912.52329146530.88398915740.2889711915

    8.36929918842.7805029030.97790586020.3171834477

    9.17437997463.04421361731.07424676890.3461052613

    9.84999587863.16293959511.10673432170.3450269937

    10.69331529063.43932294441.20780977570.3753326167

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Total Output Effects $ Billion

    0.04498810570.05808690030.02965716890.0158283021

    0.04544992420.05873115090.02988518080.0160044426

    0.18021458360.15454876190.06247277050.0397292443

    0.31969296010.25355105460.09616930170.0641922046

    0.46436433220.35643946750.13123579820.0895851892

    0.61417803250.46318237640.16766221540.1158996891

    0.76907304560.57373963380.20543509280.1431253349

    0.93004865150.68808848670.24246415950.1712770219

    1.09606225340.806221070.28083506290.2003324448

    1.26702515560.9280746560.32052594990.2302761912

    1.44292448741.05363478030.36153545140.2611055031

    1.62365750291.18282684190.40383688840.2928023594

    1.80776068511.31554263920.45006392180.325314889

    1.99652516471.45175582370.49753384460.3586635983

    2.1898308141.59137715530.5462143260.3928272598

    2.341880581.6758248050.56644134240.4118706027

    2.54400486581.82210849960.61750209670.4476327618

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Demand Growth - Personal Consumption $ Billion

    2533.3333333333178.125

    5066.6666666667356.25

    7600534.375

    10133.3333333333712.5

    12666.6666666667890.625

    152001318.125

    17733.33333333331745.625

    20266.66666666672173.125

    228002600.625

    25333.33333333333028.125

    27866.66666666673135

    304003241.875

    32933.33333333333348.75

    35466.66666666673455.625

    380003562.5

    Office Jobs:

    Retail Jobs:

    May Town Center: Total Direct Employment

    $ 1000000 all numbers

    Aggregated Market Value20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office0.000.000.130.260.380.510.640.770.901.021.151.281.411.541.661.791.92

    Commercial0.000.000.020.040.060.090.110.160.210.260.310.360.380.390.400.410.43

    Total Office+Commercial0.000.000.150.300.450.600.750.931.111.281.461.641.781.922.062.212.35

    Residential0.000.130.250.380.500.630.750.881.001.131.251.381.501.631.751.881.88

    Total$0.00$0.13$0.40$0.67$0.95$1.22$1.50$1.80$2.11$2.41$2.71$3.02$3.28$3.55$3.81$4.08$4.22

    Residentials

    Total Income:$51$102$153$204$255$306$357$408$459$510$561$612$663$714$765$765

    Retail Buying:$9$19$28$38$47$56$66$75$84$94$103$113$122$131$141$141

    DIRECT

    Tax & Other Revenues DavidsonTotal

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$0.00$0.00$37.69

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$0.00$0.25$0.50$0.76$1.01$1.26$1.51$1.77$2.02$2.27$2.52$2.78$3.03$3.28$3.53$3.79$3.79$34.07

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$0.00$0.21$0.42$0.63$0.84$1.06$1.27$1.48$1.69$1.90$2.11$2.32$2.53$2.74$2.96$3.17$3.17$28.50

    Offc & Cmcl Property$0.00$0.00$2.41$4.83$7.24$9.65$12.06$14.96$17.86$20.75$23.65$26.55$28.82$31.10$33.37$35.64$37.92$306.81

    Residential Property$0.00$1.26$2.53$3.79$5.05$6.31$7.58$8.84$10.10$11.36$12.63$13.89$15.15$16.41$17.68$18.94$18.94$170.44

    Total$2.51$4.24$8.38$12.52$16.65$20.79$24.93$29.55$34.18$38.80$43.42$48.04$52.04$56.05$60.05$61.53$63.81$577.50

    Total Property$0.00$1.26$4.94$8.61$12.29$15.96$19.64$23.80$27.96$32.12$36.27$40.43$43.97$47.51$51.05$54.58$56.86$477.25

    Total Sales$2.51$2.98$3.44$3.90$4.37$4.83$5.29$5.76$6.22$6.68$7.15$7.61$8.07$8.54$9.00$6.95$6.95$100.25

    Total Property plus Sales and Use Government Revenues $ Million

    201220182024Total

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2.5$2.5$0.0$38

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$0.5$2.0$3.8$34

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$0.4$1.7$3.2$29125000000000

    Offc & Cmcl Property$2.4$17.9$37.9$307

    Residential Property$2.5$10.1$18.9$170

    Total Direct$8.4$34.2$63.8$578

    Total w/Multiplier$8.4$50.2$99.5$897

    Tax & Other Revenues Total Davidson2012201820242026

    Property Tax1.471.495.8910.4415.1520.0125.0330.2335.5841.0846.7352.5258.4164.4470.6075.4281.850.00636.36

    General sales tax0.500.501.993.535.126.768.4610.2112.0213.8815.7917.7519.7421.7723.8525.4827.650.00

    Selective sales taxes0.110.110.420.751.091.441.802.172.552.953.363.774.194.635.075.425.880.00

    Motor Veh License0.040.050.180.320.460.610.760.921.091.251.431.601.781.972.162.302.500.00

    Airport Fees0.080.080.330.580.841.111.381.671.972.272.582.903.233.563.904.174.520.00

    Total Sales tax$0.60$0.61$2.41$4.28$6.21$8.20$10.25$12.38$14.58$16.83$19.14$21.52$23.93$26.40$28.92$30.90$33.53260.70

    115.38897.06

    Construction Employment Impacts

    Region NameNAICSIndustry NameRegion Name20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner23ConstructionMSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner9209171,0081,0811,1561,2311,3061,3821,4591,5361,6131,6911,7671,8441,9211,2801,369

    Davidson23ConstructionDavidson3583574304985656326997678349029691,0371,1041,1711,2381,0261,097

    Rest of TN23ConstructionRest of TN200199240278316354392429467504541579617656694577618Total Investment Demand

    Dickson & Sumner23ConstructionDickson & Sumner210209231250269287306325344363382401420439458314336Total

    Total Demand Growth - Construction $ MillionNon-Res$1,000,000

    Demand caused by Non-residential InvestmentDavidson$0.02$0.02$0.11$0.20$0.30$0.39$0.50$0.60$0.71$0.83$0.95$1.07$1.19$1.32$1.45$1.56$1.69Davidson$13

    Demand caused by Non-residential InvestmentMSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$0.02$0.02$0.05$0.07$0.10$0.13$0.16$0.19$0.22$0.25$0.28$0.32$0.35$0.39$0.43$0.44$0.48MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$4

    Demand caused by Non-residential InvestmentRest of TN$0.01$0.01$0.02$0.03$0.04$0.04$0.05$0.06$0.07$0.08$0.09$0.10$0.12$0.13$0.14$0.15$0.16Rest of TN$1

    Demand caused by Non-residential InvestmentDickson & Sumner$0.00$0.00$0.01$0.01$0.01$0.02$0.02$0.02$0.03$0.03$0.03$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.05$0.05$0.05$2Dickson & Sumner$0

    $0$0$0$0$0$1$1$1$1$1$1$2$2$2$2$2.19$2$19

    Total Demand Growth $ MillionResidential

    Demand caused by Residential InvestmentDavidson$2.3$2.3$9.2$16.3$23.7$31.4$39.3$47.5$56.0$64.7$73.7$83.0$92.4$102.0$111.9$119.7$130.0Davidson$1,005

    Demand caused by Residential InvestmentMSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$3.0$3.0$7.9$13.0$18.2$23.7$29.3$35.2$41.2$47.4$53.8$60.4$67.2$74.2$81.3$85.6$93.1MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$738

    Demand caused by Residential InvestmentRest of TN$1.5$1.5$3.2$4.9$6.7$8.6$10.5$12.4$14.3$16.4$18.5$20.6$23.0$25.4$27.9$28.9$31.6Rest of TN$256

    Demand caused by Residential InvestmentDickson & Sumner$0.8$0.8$2.0$3.3$4.6$5.9$7.3$8.8$10.2$11.8$13.3$15.0$16.6$18.3$20.1$21.0$22.9$278Dickson & Sumner$183

    $8$8$22$37$53$70$86$104$122$140$159$179$199$220$241$255$278$2,182

    Total Job Growth

    Davidson1,2251,2165,4399,66613,91218,17222,44826,86331,29535,74440,20744,68448,99753,27257,64260,99665,344

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner1,3951,3882,5573,7164,8876,0687,2588,4199,59010,77011,95813,15514,40415,65816,91617,07918,362

    Rest of TN6306241,1501,6752,2052,7393,2773,7434,2154,6935,1765,6656,2486,8327,4187,5138,108

    Dickson & Sumner3173155347509681,1881,4101,6251,8422,0612,2812,5022,7332,9653,1983,1833,420

    total3,5673,5439,68015,80921,97328,16834,39340,65046,94153,26759,62266,00672,38278,72785,17488,77095,234

    Total Sales Growth $Billion

    Davidson$0.15$0.15$0.72$1.30$1.91$2.54$3.19$3.87$4.58$5.31$6.05$6.82$7.58$8.37$9.17$9.85$10.69$82

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$0.15$0.15$0.33$0.52$0.72$0.92$1.13$1.34$1.56$1.79$2.03$2.27$2.52$2.78$3.04$3.16$3.44$28

    Rest of TN$0.07$0.07$0.13$0.20$0.27$0.34$0.41$0.48$0.56$0.63$0.71$0.79$0.88$0.98$1.07$1.11$1.21$10

    Dickson & Sumner$0.03$0.03$0.05$0.07$0.09$0.11$0.14$0.16$0.18$0.21$0.24$0.26$0.29$0.32$0.35$0.35$0.38$3

    $0.39$0.40$1.23$2.09$2.99$3.91$4.86$5.86$6.88$7.94$9.03$10.15$11.28$12.44$13.64$14.46$15.716$123

    Demand caused by Personal Consumption $1000000

    Davidson$0.04$0.05$0.18$0.32$0.46$0.61$0.77$0.93$1.10$1.27$1.44$1.62$1.81$2.00$2.19$2.34$2.54

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$0.06$0.06$0.15$0.25$0.36$0.46$0.57$0.69$0.81$0.93$1.05$1.18$1.32$1.45$1.59$1.68$1.82

    Rest of TN$0.03$0.03$0.06$0.10$0.13$0.17$0.21$0.24$0.28$0.32$0.36$0.40$0.45$0.50$0.55$0.57$0.62

    Dickson & Sumner$0.02$0.02$0.04$0.06$0.09$0.12$0.14$0.17$0.20$0.23$0.26$0.29$0.33$0.36$0.39$0.41$0.45

    Total0.150.150.440.731.041.361.692.032.382.753.123.503.904.304.725.005.43

    Disposable IncomeDavidson$51,376,98051,921,004205,936,033364,886,824529,366,989699,292,984874,574,4161,056,329,8481,243,360,0971,435,556,4251,632,899,9931,835,273,7922,041,028,1002,251,630,0582,466,952,9242,635,469,6512,860,026,278

    Disposable IncomeMSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$66,335,96867,093,188176,607,011289,394,672406,334,584527,371,819652,445,184781,516,543914,567,6761,051,520,9811,192,356,3851,336,988,3121,485,295,8781,637,253,1171,792,765,2221,885,914,0182,048,454,490

    Disposable IncomeRest of TN$33,868,85834,140,18071,389,309109,764,416149,606,450190,897,435233,616,660275,385,732318,575,984363,160,182409,135,226456,470,195508,138,670561,105,955615,337,505637,453,071694,209,452

    Disposable IncomeDickson & Sumner$18,076,11918,283,12745,399,67273,266,830102,125,505131,961,476162,759,255194,532,867227,254,763260,906,000295,482,666330,964,194367,292,438404,491,640442,539,374463,504,622503,238,606

    Total$169,657,925$171,437,500$499,332,025$837,312,742$1,187,433,527$1,549,523,714$1,923,395,515$2,307,764,990$2,703,758,520$3,111,143,589$3,529,874,269$3,959,696,493$4,401,755,086$4,854,480,771$5,317,595,024$5,622,341,362$6,105,928,826

  • 1 Regional Economic Impacts Briefly Introduced

  • E&WE*Why do Regional Economic Impact Assessment?To understand the effects of changes in business activity on the regional economy and government revenues: e.g,

    Slow down in Music Row Activity; Industry/plant relocation; Condo residential additions to Downtown; On-location movies Hanna Montana; Addition of May Town Center Commercial and Residential.

  • E&WE*What do you measure?Direct and Secondary Economic EffectsEconomic impacts are classified as direct, indirect and induced.Direct impacts are the primary change in the regional economy. Indirect impacts result from changes in sales of suppliers to the directly-affected businesses. Induced impacts result from changes in spending on consumer goods and services as a result of changes in employment and payroll of directly and indirectly affected businesses.

    Impacts can be referred to as direct and secondary effects.

    Total Impacts are the sum of direct plus secondary effects.

  • E&WE*Example: New Money spent on RecreationLeakage

    TVA Regional Boundary

    New round of spending

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SECONDARY EFFECTS

    Increase in local output/income

    Local Businesses (Money stays in the regional economy)

    Non-Local Businesses (Money leaves the regional economy)

    EMBED MS_ClipArt_Gallery

    DIRECT EFFECTS

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    $

    Increase in output/income of local businesses

    EMBED MS_ClipArt_Gallery

    Additional spending on recreation

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • E&WE*Economic Impact Analysis of May Town CenterConstructionResidential Commercial Office DevelopmentREDYN Economic ModelInputs Direct EffectsOutputsTotal Effects as measured by:In other words, Economic Development of Davidson and Metro MSAComputer Simulation to determine secondary effects

  • E&WE*Measurement of Economic ImpactsMeasure changes in policy variable associated with two forecasts the difference is the impact.Employment2010201120162012201320142015New ForecastControl ForecastEconomic Effect of Driver[s]. . . . . 2026

  • 2. Overview of May Town Center Project

  • E&WE*May Town Center Drivers: Overview of Project

    Offices10.0 MSFCommercial1.5 MSFResidential7.0 MSF 5,000 unitsBuild out 2010 2024Absorption 2011 - 2026

  • E&WE*May Town Center:Aggregate Market Value by Property Type

    Chart1

    0.12500

    0.250.12793333330.021375

    0.3750.25586666670.04275

    0.50.38380.064125

    0.6250.51173333330.0855

    0.750.63966666670.106875

    0.8750.76760.158175

    10.89553333330.209475

    1.1251.02346666670.260775

    1.251.15140.312075

    1.3751.27933333330.363375

    1.51.40726666670.3762

    1.6251.53520.389025

    1.751.66313333330.40185

    1.8751.79106666670.414675

    1.8751.9190.4275

    Residential

    Office

    Commercial

    Aggregate Market Value$ Billion

    Morf Inputs

    Bell's Landing Project AnalysisFeb 1 2008

    Universal Occupancy Rate

    OfficeSquare FeetPrice/SFBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorptionRate/Yr(Office & Commercial)

    Office Core4,000,000220152010-20242012-20260.06666666670.95

    Office Campus3,000,000200152010-20242012-20260.0666666667

    Corporate Office3,000,000180152010-20242012-20260.0666666667

    CommercialSquare FeetPrice/SFBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorption 1Rate1/YrAbsorption 2Rate2/YrAbsorption 3Rate3/Yr

    Retail (cmcl*80%)1,200,000300152010-20242012-20160.052017-20210.122022-20260.03

    Restaurant (cmcl*20%)300,000300152010-20242012-20160.052017-20210.122022-20260.03

    ResidentialSquare FeetAvg Pr/SFUnitsAvg SF/UnitAvg Pr/UnitBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorptionRate/Yr

    Urban Core3,360,0002682,4001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    Other3,640,0002682,6001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    All Residential7,000,0002685,0001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    Hard ConstructionCost/SF20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core175$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667

    Office Campus150$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000

    Corporate Office125$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000

    Cmcl-Retail165$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant295$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000

    All Residential140$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333

    Total Hard Construction:$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000

    Absorption/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000

    All Residential$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000

    Cumulative Absorption (Mkt Value)20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)$55,733,333$111,466,667$167,200,000$222,933,333$278,666,667$334,400,000$390,133,333$445,866,667$501,600,000$557,333,333$613,066,667$668,800,000$724,533,333$780,266,667$836,000,000

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)$38,000,000$76,000,000$114,000,000$152,000,000$190,000,000$228,000,000$266,000,000$304,000,000$342,000,000$380,000,000$418,000,000$456,000,000$494,000,000$532,000,000$570,000,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)$34,200,000$68,400,000$102,600,000$136,800,000$171,000,000$205,200,000$239,400,000$273,600,000$307,800,000$342,000,000$376,200,000$410,400,000$444,600,000$478,800,000$513,000,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)$17,100,000$34,200,000$51,300,000$68,400,000$85,500,000$126,540,000$167,580,000$208,620,000$249,660,000$290,700,000$300,960,000$311,220,000$321,480,000$331,740,000$342,000,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)$4,275,000$8,550,000$12,825,000$17,100,000$21,375,000$31,635,000$41,895,000$52,155,000$62,415,000$72,675,000$75,240,000$77,805,000$80,370,000$82,935,000$85,500,000

    All Residential$125,000,000$250,000,000$375,000,000$500,000,000$625,000,000$750,000,000$875,000,000$1,000,000,000$1,125,000,000$1,250,000,000$1,375,000,000$1,500,000,000$1,625,000,000$1,750,000,000$1,875,000,000$1,875,000,000

    Aggregated Market Value20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office$127,933,333$255,866,667$383,800,000$511,733,333$639,666,667$767,600,000$895,533,333$1,023,466,667$1,151,400,000$1,279,333,333$1,407,266,667$1,535,200,000$1,663,133,333$1,791,066,667$1,919,000,000

    Commercial$21,375,000$42,750,000$64,125,000$85,500,000$106,875,000$158,175,000$209,475,000$260,775,000$312,075,000$363,375,000$376,200,000$389,025,000$401,850,000$414,675,000$427,500,000

    Total Office+Commercial$149,308,333$298,616,667$447,925,000$597,233,333$746,541,667$925,775,000$1,105,008,333$1,284,241,667$1,463,475,000$1,642,708,333$1,783,466,667$1,924,225,000$2,064,983,333$2,205,741,667$2,346,500,000

    Residential$125,000,000$250,000,000$375,000,000$500,000,000$625,000,000$750,000,000$875,000,000$1,000,000,000$1,125,000,000$1,250,000,000$1,375,000,000$1,500,000,000$1,625,000,000$1,750,000,000$1,875,000,000$1,875,000,000

    Grand Total Value$125,000,000$399,308,333$673,616,667$947,925,000$1,222,233,333$1,496,541,667$1,800,775,000$2,105,008,333$2,409,241,667$2,713,475,000$3,017,708,333$3,283,466,667$3,549,225,000$3,814,983,333$4,080,741,667$4,221,500,000

    Cumulative Office & Cmcl SF/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)253,333506,667760,0001,013,3331,266,6671,520,0001,773,3332,026,6672,280,0002,533,3332,786,6673,040,0003,293,3333,546,6673,800,000

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)190,000380,000570,000760,000950,0001,140,0001,330,0001,520,0001,710,0001,900,0002,090,0002,280,0002,470,0002,660,0002,850,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)190,000380,000570,000760,000950,0001,140,0001,330,0001,520,0001,710,0001,900,0002,090,0002,280,0002,470,0002,660,0002,850,000

    TOTAL CUMULATIVE OCCUPIED OFFICE SF/YR633,3331,266,6671,900,0002,533,3333,166,6673,800,0004,433,3335,066,6675,700,0006,333,3336,966,6677,600,0008,233,3338,866,6679,500,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)57,000114,000171,000228,000285,000421,800558,600695,400832,200969,0001,003,2001,037,4001,071,6001,105,8001,140,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)14,25028,50042,75057,00071,250105,450139,650173,850208,050242,250250,800259,350267,900276,450285,000

    Cumulative Families/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Cumulative Number of Families (Units)3336671,0001,3331,6672,0002,3332,6673,0003,3333,6674,0004,3334,6675,0005,000

    Wtd Avg Income/Family:$153,000Total Income:$51,000,000$102,000,000$153,000,000$204,000,000$255,000,000$306,000,000$357,000,000$408,000,000$459,000,000$510,000,000$561,000,000$612,000,000$663,000,000$714,000,000$765,000,000$765,000,000

    Retail Purchases Rate:0.184Retail Buying:$9,384,000$18,768,000$28,152,000$37,536,000$46,920,000$56,304,000$65,688,000$75,072,000$84,456,000$93,840,000$103,224,000$112,608,000$121,992,000$131,376,000$140,760,000$140,760,000

    Tax & Rev ParametersMkt Val Assess FactorEff RatePer $ BasisTotal Factor$ Source

    Ofc & Cmcl Property0.40$4.04$100.000.01616Assess Mkt

    Residential Property0.25$4.04$100.000.0101Assess Mkt

    Other Local Fee Revsna$757.00Per Household757Households

    Local Option Sales1.00$0.0225$1.000.0225Gross Sales--incl constr mtls cost (hard cost*0.6)

    Tax & Other Revenues20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Offc & Cmcl Property$2,412,823$4,825,645$7,238,468$9,651,291$12,064,113$14,960,524$17,856,935$20,753,345$23,649,756$26,546,167$28,820,821$31,095,476$33,370,131$35,644,785$37,919,440

    Residential Property$1,262,500$2,525,000$3,787,500$5,050,000$6,312,500$7,575,000$8,837,500$10,100,000$11,362,500$12,625,000$13,887,500$15,150,000$16,412,500$17,675,000$18,937,500$18,937,500

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$252,333$504,667$757,000$1,009,333$1,261,667$1,514,000$1,766,333$2,018,667$2,271,000$2,523,333$2,775,667$3,028,000$3,280,333$3,532,667$3,785,000$3,785,000

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$211,140$422,280$633,420$844,560$1,055,700$1,266,840$1,477,980$1,689,120$1,900,260$2,111,400$2,322,540$2,533,680$2,744,820$2,955,960$3,167,100$3,167,100

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$0$0

    Total Revenues$2,512,350$4,238,323$8,377,119$12,515,915$16,654,711$20,793,507$24,932,303$29,554,687$34,177,071$38,799,455$43,421,839$48,044,223$52,044,851$56,045,479$60,046,107$61,534,385$63,809,040

    Direct Office & Commercial Employment201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    NAICS

    See Breakout BelowSF/Office Job:250Office Jobs:2,5335,0677,60010,13312,66715,20017,73320,26722,80025,33327,86730,40032,93335,46738,000

    44SF/Retail Job:400Retail Jobs:1432854285707131,0551,3971,7392,0812,4232,5082,5942,6792,7652,850

    7221SF/Restaurant Job:400Restrnt Jobs:3671107143178264349435520606627648670691713

    Industry Breakout for Direct Office Jobs201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    NAICSSectorProportionCompetitive

    551Management of Companies0.05Yes1272533805076337608871,0131,1401,2671,3931,5201,6471,7731,900

    561Administrative & Support0.40Yes1,0132,0273,0404,0535,0676,0807,0938,1079,12010,13311,14712,16013,17314,18715,200

    541Professional, R&D, Tech0.30Partly Yes7601,5202,2803,0403,8004,5605,3206,0806,8407,6008,3609,1209,88010,64011,400

    52Financial & Insurance0.15Less3807601,1401,5201,9002,2802,6603,0403,4203,8004,1804,5604,9405,3205,700

    531Real Estate0.10Less2535077601,0131,2671,5201,7732,0272,2802,5332,7873,0403,2933,5473,800

    Modeling Inputs20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Construction (by local final demand type; nat'l displacement because could invest anywhere; local productivity)

    Office+Cmcl$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$0$0

    Residential$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$0$0

    BLS: 2007*0.87 = 2002

    Office+Cmcl (/1000=input)105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,06700

    Residential (/1000=input)56,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84000

    Office Employment (new office jobs as nat'l displacement because could work anywhere; infer sales & payroll from #jobs; nat'l productivity)

    ABOVE: SEE INDUSTRY BREAKOUT FOR #DIRECT NEW OFFICE JOBS BY NAICS SECTOR

    Retail Commercial Employment (new retail jobs as local displacement, using direct high-productivity data for output [sales], jobs, & payroll)

    Wage rate:24,300(2007:2002)21,141

    Productivity:240,000(2007:2002)208,800

    Payroll (#jobs*wg rate/1000)3,0136,0259,03812,05015,06322,29329,52336,75443,98451,21453,02254,82956,63758,44460,252

    Sales (#jobs*prod*.25/1000)7,43914,87722,31629,75437,19355,04572,89790,750108,602126,455130,918135,381139,844144,307148,770

    Jobs (from NAICS 44 above)1432854285707131,0551,3971,7392,0812,4232,5082,5942,6792,7652,850

    Restaurant Commercial Employment (new restrnt jobs as local displacement, using direct high-productivity data for output [sales], jobs, & payroll)

    Wage rate:24,300(2007:2002)21,141

    Productivity:260,000(2007:2002)226,200

    Payroll (#jobs*wg rate/1000)7531,5062,2593,0133,7665,5737,3819,18810,99612,80413,25513,70714,15914,61115,063

    Sales (#jobs*prod/1000)8,05816,11724,17532,23440,29259,63278,97298,312117,652136,992141,827146,662151,497156,332161,168

    Jobs (NAICS 7221 above)3671107143178264349435520606627648670691713

    Graphics

    Hard Construction Costs $ Million

    Annually: 2010 - 2024Total

    Office Core$47$700$0

    Office Campus$30$450$0

    Corporate Office$25$3750.000375

    Cmcl-Retail$13$1980

    Cmcl-Restaurant$6$890

    All Residential$65$9800.00098

    Total$186$2,792

    Graphics

    0.12500

    0.250.12793333330.021375

    0.3750.25586666670.04275

    0.50.38380.064125

    0.6250.51173333330.0855

    0.750.63966666670.106875

    0.8750.76760.158175

    10.89553333330.209475

    1.1251.02346666670.260775

    1.251.15140.312075

    1.3751.27933333330.363375

    1.51.40726666670.3762

    1.6251.53520.389025

    1.751.66313333330.40185

    1.8751.79106666670.414675

    1.8751.9190.4275

    Residential

    Office

    Commercial

    Aggregate Market Value$ Billion

    Chart Drivers

    333.3333333333

    666.6666666667

    1000

    1333.3333333333

    1666.6666666667

    2000

    2333.3333333333

    2666.6666666667

    3000

    3333.3333333333

    3666.6666666667

    4000

    4333.3333333333

    4666.6666666667

    5000

    5000

    Occupancy by Families

    Residential Build out - Units

    Sheet4

    519.384

    10218.768

    15328.152

    20437.536

    25546.92

    30656.304

    35765.688

    40875.072

    45984.456

    51093.84

    561103.224

    612112.608

    663121.992

    714131.376

    765140.76

    765140.76

    Total Income

    Retail Spending

    Residential Income & Spending$1,000,000

    126.66666666671013.3333333333760380253.3333333333

    253.33333333332026.66666666671520760506.6666666667

    380304022801140760

    506.66666666674053.3333333333304015201013.3333333333

    633.33333333335066.6666666667380019001266.6666666667

    7606080456022801520

    886.66666666677093.3333333333532026601773.3333333333

    1013.33333333338106.6666666667608030402026.6666666667

    11409120684034202280

    1266.666666666710133.3333333333760038002533.3333333333

    1393.333333333311146.6666666667836041802786.6666666667

    152012160912045603040

    1646.666666666713173.3333333333988049403293.3333333333

    1773.333333333314186.66666666671064053203546.6666666667

    1900152001140057003800

    Management

    Admin

    Professional

    Finance/Insurance

    Real Estate

    Direct Office Job Creation

    142.535.625

    28571.25

    427.5106.875

    570142.5

    712.5178.125

    1054.5263.625

    1396.5349.125

    1738.5434.625

    2080.5520.125

    2422.5605.625

    2508627

    2593.5648.375

    2679669.75

    2764.5691.125

    2850712.5

    Retail

    Restaurant

    Retail Sector Direct Job Creation

    919.8489358.3941199.58932209.98996

    917.40621357.27319198.95576209.27799

    1007.53739430.4873240.17716231.43584

    1081.4959497.51782278.06253249.94159

    1155.82114564.62028316.02482268.50895

    1230.50541631.77119354.0479287.13521

    1305.54105698.94987392.11738305.818

    1381.95527766.51294429.29799324.78696

    1458.67521834.08644466.55732343.80275

    1535.69479901.65636503.88208362.86381

    1613.00768969.231541.2753381.96968

    1690.608591036.79975578.72636401.11923

    1767.249571103.90965617.30454420.0342

    1844.200331171.02157655.8917438.999

    1921.455631238.12932694.48215458.01289

    1279.963141025.59569576.8006314.11671

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Davidson

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Construction Job Impacts

    0.01821349460.02018852090.00825832270.0039533989

    0.01908271530.02127197720.0086285930.0041294543

    0.10838461190.04756005670.01731365490.0070448994

    0.20026841940.07375846330.02598484080.0098978041

    0.29556346030.10093175190.03500315530.0128578715

    0.39432273560.1290791890.04436609190.0159248144

    0.49659055970.1581971730.05407016530.0190980528

    0.60381910040.188388240.06352789030.0223592309

    0.71453945470.21955071920.07332703790.0257267116

    0.8287687060.25167386530.08346176170.029199155

    0.9464323920.28475819170.09393400650.0327766664

    1.06753061210.31878914920.10473670520.0364575071

    1.1901214430.35361804450.11661668570.0402631371

    1.31603625940.38936928610.1288176790.0441693097

    1.44525462040.42602313510.1413310320.0481737534

    1.55793911130.44127779420.14521388830.0479829757

    1.6936014790.47969021110.158337250.0521789376

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Investment Demand Growth: Non-Residential $ Billion

    2.3496070233.03372164371.54891367820.8266693908

    2.34743894253.03339978161.5435369310.8266119655

    9.20792614947.89655064373.19199836782.0299353103

    16.33446695412.95499694254.91369680463.2798515172

    23.72633990818.21200160926.70539260924.5772866207

    31.380956229923.66594880468.56657249435.9218058621

    39.295198275929.314787206910.49654874717.3128793793

    47.520123620735.157354287312.38852054028.7512682759

    56.002461494241.193248195414.349052494210.2358328621

    64.737679988547.419263781616.377027942511.7657856207

    73.725121632253.834662183918.472377011513.3409857126

    82.959536758660.435631712620.633736563214.9605123218

    92.366147816167.216643701122.995671413816.6217151264

    102.010924344874.176352057525.421110770118.3256418851

    111.887728459781.310197068927.908402678220.0712080115

    119.656594850585.624985068928.941886620721.044213023

    129.983980390893.099238402331.550796735622.8714531494

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Investment Demand Growth: Residential $ 1,000,000

    1224.665821395.32394630.41643316.95157

    1215.996481388.0806624.21077315.11037

    5439.229672556.592531150.46763533.98144

    9666.466923716.390451675.41442750.29437

    13911.980644887.108552205.0891968.43688

    18172.355126067.994062739.105641188.26426

    22448.232077258.308493277.082741409.63746

    26863.192078419.016633742.712931625.10119

    31294.65199589.741724214.719491842.22811

    35744.0848110769.670614692.57222060.87072

    40206.7127411958.384145176.125032280.94697

    44684.101713155.100315664.863542502.31839

    48997.3238914403.791626247.899412733.38316

    53272.0707915657.590986832.481232965.20166

    57642.3898816915.895857418.316943197.67451

    60995.7908117079.282687512.565633182.74576

    65344.2449718361.874718107.891673420.15306

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Job Creation Direct plus Secondary

    0.14801258670.14839024490.06653987220.0306540259

    0.14869441440.15011883830.06657520110.0307040296

    0.71725807220.33285991380.13013601630.0505432356

    1.30474072040.52084988090.19630547680.0710951482

    1.91245305990.71585752460.26516745040.0924203955

    2.54041767440.9178836390.33670664380.1145170745

    3.18857317921.12690933940.41090061950.137381219

    3.87366793111.34218682310.48198591050.1606805775

    4.57926807441.56446135580.55572229490.1847473923

    5.30512724561.79366321580.63206930640.209572172

    6.05157346782.02977952050.7110315840.2351553823

    6.81826849022.27271305770.7925588760.2614846486

    7.58376788912.52329146530.88398915740.2889711915

    8.36929918842.7805029030.97790586020.3171834477

    9.17437997463.04421361731.07424676890.3461052613

    9.84999587863.16293959511.10673432170.3450269937

    10.69331529063.43932294441.20780977570.3753326167

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Total Output Effects $ Billion

    44.988105678158.086900264429.657168919515.8283020575

    45.449924195458.73115093129.885180816116.0044426437

    180.2145835862154.548761942562.472770459839.7292443218

    319.6929601263253.551054620696.169301689664.1922046207

    464.3643322412356.4394675056131.235798229889.5851891724

    614.1780324711463.1823764252167.6622154023115.8996890919

    769.0730456435573.7396338044205.4350927816143.1253348965

    930.048651517688.0884867239242.4641595287171.2770218735

    1096.062253425806.2210700343280.835062908200.332444816

    1267.0251556203928.0746560227320.5259498735230.2761911723

    1442.92448741341053.6347803215361.5354514482261.1055031034

    1623.65750289611182.8268419307403.8368883562292.8023594022

    1807.76068510291315.542639172450.06392177325.3148890459

    1996.52516467761451.7558236663497.5338445976358.6635982643

    2189.83081399941591.3771552869546.2143259884392.8272597815

    2341.88058001081675.824804965566.4413424251411.8706026895

    2544.00486582691822.1084996087617.502096655447.63276177

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Demand Growth - Personal Consumption $ 1,000,000

    $ 1000000 all numbers

    Aggregated Market Value20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office0.000.000.130.260.380.510.640.770.901.021.151.281.411.541.661.791.92

    Commercial0.000.000.020.040.060.090.110.160.210.260.310.360.380.390.400.410.43

    Total Office+Commercial0.000.000.150.300.450.600.750.931.111.281.461.641.781.922.062.212.35

    Residential0.000.130.250.380.500.630.750.881.001.131.251.381.501.631.751.881.88

    Total$0.00$0.13$0.40$0.67$0.95$1.22$1.50$1.80$2.11$2.41$2.71$3.02$3.28$3.55$3.81$4.08$4.22

    Residentials

    Total Income:$51$102$153$204$255$306$357$408$459$510$561$612$663$714$765$765

    Retail Buying:$9$19$28$38$47$56$66$75$84$94$103$113$122$131$141$141

    DIRECT

    Tax & Other Revenues DavidsonTotal

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$0.00$0.00$37.69

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$0.00$0.25$0.50$0.76$1.01$1.26$1.51$1.77$2.02$2.27$2.52$2.78$3.03$3.28$3.53$3.79$3.79$34.07

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$0.00$0.21$0.42$0.63$0.84$1.06$1.27$1.48$1.69$1.90$2.11$2.32$2.53$2.74$2.96$3.17$3.17$28.50

    Offc & Cmcl Property$0.00$0.00$2.41$4.83$7.24$9.65$12.06$14.96$17.86$20.75$23.65$26.55$28.82$31.10$33.37$35.64$37.92$306.81

    Residential Property$0.00$1.26$2.53$3.79$5.05$6.31$7.58$8.84$10.10$11.36$12.63$13.89$15.15$16.41$17.68$18.94$18.94$170.44

    Total$2.51$4.24$8.38$12.52$16.65$20.79$24.93$29.55$34.18$38.80$43.42$48.04$52.04$56.05$60.05$61.53$63.81$577.50

    Total Property$0.00$1.26$4.94$8.61$12.29$15.96$19.64$23.80$27.96$32.12$36.27$40.43$43.97$47.51$51.05$54.58$56.86$477.25

    Total Sales$2.51$2.98$3.44$3.90$4.37$4.83$5.29$5.76$6.22$6.68$7.15$7.61$8.07$8.54$9.00$6.95$6.95$100.25

    Total Property plus Sales and Use Government Revenues $ Million

    201220182024Total

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2.5$2.5$0.0$38

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$0.5$2.0$3.8$34

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$0.4$1.7$3.2$29125000000000

    Offc & Cmcl Property$2.4$17.9$37.9$307

    Residential Property$2.5$10.1$18.9$170

    Total Direct$8.4$34.2$63.8$578

    Total w/Multiplier$8.4$50.2$99.5$897

    Tax & Other Revenues Total Davidson201220182024

    Property Tax1.471.495.8910.4415.1520.0125.0330.2335.5841.0846.7352.5258.4164.4470.6075.4281.850.00636.36

    General sales tax0.500.501.993.535.126.768.4610.2112.0213.8815.7917.7519.7421.7723.8525.4827.650.00

    Selective sales taxes0.110.110.420.751.091.441.802.172.552.953.363.774.194.635.075.425.880.00

    Motor Veh License0.040.050.180.320.460.610.760.921.091.251.431.601.781.972.162.302.500.00

    Airport Fees0.080.080.330.580.841.111.381.671.972.272.582.903.233.563.904.174.520.00

    Total Sales tax$0.60$0.61$2.41$4.28$6.21$8.20$10.25$12.38$14.58$16.83$19.14$21.52$23.93$26.40$28.92$30.90$33.53260.70

    Construction Employment Impacts

    Region NameNAICSIndustry NameRegion Name20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner23ConstructionMSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner9209171,0081,0811,1561,2311,3061,3821,4591,5361,6131,6911,7671,8441,9211,2801,369

    Davidson23ConstructionDavidson3583574304985656326997678349029691,0371,1041,1711,2381,0261,097

    Rest of TN23ConstructionRest of TN200199240278316354392429467504541579617656694577618Total Investment Demand

    Dickson & Sumner23ConstructionDickson & Sumner210209231250269287306325344363382401420439458314336Total

    Total Demand Growth - Construction $ MillionNon-Res$1,000,000

    Demand caused by Non-residential InvestmentDavidson$0.02$0.02$0.11$0.20$0.30$0.39$0.50$0.60$0.71$0.83$0.95$1.07$1.19$1.32$1.45$1.56$1.69Davidson$13

    Demand caused by Non-residential InvestmentMSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$0.02$0.02$0.05$0.07$0.10$0.13$0.16$0.19$0.22$0.25$0.28$0.32$0.35$0.39$0.43$0.44$0.48MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$4

    Demand caused by Non-residential InvestmentRest of TN$0.01$0.01$0.02$0.03$0.04$0.04$0.05$0.06$0.07$0.08$0.09$0.10$0.12$0.13$0.14$0.15$0.16Rest of TN$1

    Demand caused by Non-residential InvestmentDickson & Sumner$0.00$0.00$0.01$0.01$0.01$0.02$0.02$0.02$0.03$0.03$0.03$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.05$0.05$0.05$2Dickson & Sumner$0

    $0$0$0$0$0$1$1$1$1$1$1$2$2$2$2$2$2$19

    Total Demand Growth $ MillionResidential

    Demand caused by Residential InvestmentDavidson$2.3$2.3$9.2$16.3$23.7$31.4$39.3$47.5$56.0$64.7$73.7$83.0$92.4$102.0$111.9$119.7$130.0Davidson$1,005

    Demand caused by Residential InvestmentMSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$3.0$3.0$7.9$13.0$18.2$23.7$29.3$35.2$41.2$47.4$53.8$60.4$67.2$74.2$81.3$85.6$93.1MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$738

    Demand caused by Residential InvestmentRest of TN$1.5$1.5$3.2$4.9$6.7$8.6$10.5$12.4$14.3$16.4$18.5$20.6$23.0$25.4$27.9$28.9$31.6Rest of TN$256

    Demand caused by Residential InvestmentDickson & Sumner$0.8$0.8$2.0$3.3$4.6$5.9$7.3$8.8$10.2$11.8$13.3$15.0$16.6$18.3$20.1$21.0$22.9$278Dickson & Sumner$183

    $8$8$22$37$53$70$86$104$122$140$159$179$199$220$241$255$278$2,182

    Total Job Growth

    Davidson1,2251,2165,4399,66613,91218,17222,44826,86331,29535,74440,20744,68448,99753,27257,64260,99665,344

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner1,3951,3882,5573,7164,8876,0687,2588,4199,59010,77011,95813,15514,40415,65816,91617,07918,362

    Rest of TN6306241,1501,6752,2052,7393,2773,7434,2154,6935,1765,6656,2486,8327,4187,5138,108

    Dickson & Sumner3173155347509681,1881,4101,6251,8422,0612,2812,5022,7332,9653,1983,1833,420

    Total Sales Growth $Billion

    Davidson$0.15$0.15$0.72$1.30$1.91$2.54$3.19$3.87$4.58$5.31$6.05$6.82$7.58$8.37$9.17$9.85$10.69$82

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$0.15$0.15$0.33$0.52$0.72$0.92$1.13$1.34$1.56$1.79$2.03$2.27$2.52$2.78$3.04$3.16$3.44$28

    Rest of TN$0.07$0.07$0.13$0.20$0.27$0.34$0.41$0.48$0.56$0.63$0.71$0.79$0.88$0.98$1.07$1.11$1.21$10

    Dickson & Sumner$0.03$0.03$0.05$0.07$0.09$0.11$0.14$0.16$0.18$0.21$0.24$0.26$0.29$0.32$0.35$0.35$0.38$3

    $0$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9$10$11$12$14$14$16$123

    Demand caused by Personal Consumption $1000000

    Davidson$45$45$180$320$464$614$769$930$1,096$1,267$1,443$1,624$1,808$1,997$2,190$2,342$2,544

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner$58$59$155$254$356$463$574$688$806$928$1,054$1,183$1,316$1,452$1,591$1,676$1,822

    Rest of TN$30$30$62$96$131$168$205$242$281$321$362$404$450$498$546$566$618

    Dickson & Sumner$16$16$40$64$90$116$143$171$200$230$261$293$325$359$393$412$448

    Total$149$150$437$734$1,042$1,361$1,691$2,032$2,383$2,746$3,119$3,503$3,899$4,304$4,720$4,996$5,431

  • E&WE*Regional Economic Effects Extend Beyond Metro NashvilleMay Town Center on the west side of Nashville will stimulate growth across the region.Economic Impacts are tracked in this analysis by specific counties to reveal the broad economic stimulus.DavidsonDickson & SumnerRest of Nashville MSA, excluding Davidson, Dickson & SumnerRest of Tennessee.REDYN Model results are produced annually thru 2026.Results are reported in constant $2007REDYN economic and demographic modeling system (REgional DYNamics) is a nonlinear, dynamic, forecasting and economic impact model. It provides advanced, impact, policy, and forecasting analysis for public and private plans, programs, and projects.

  • 3. Construction

  • E&WE*May Town Center: Construction Direct CostsFirms will respond from the multi-county region to projects construction demand.

    Morf Inputs

    Bell's Landing Project AnalysisFeb 1 2008

    Universal Occupancy Rate

    OfficeSquare FeetPrice/SFBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorptionRate/Yr(Office & Commercial)

    Office Core4,000,000220152010-20242012-20260.06666666670.95

    Office Campus3,000,000200152010-20242012-20260.0666666667

    Corporate Office3,000,000180152010-20242012-20260.0666666667

    CommercialSquare FeetPrice/SFBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorption 1Rate1/YrAbsorption 2Rate2/YrAbsorption 3Rate3/Yr

    Retail (cmcl*80%)1,200,000300152010-20242012-20160.052017-20210.122022-20260.03

    Restaurant (cmcl*20%)300,000300152010-20242012-20160.052017-20210.122022-20260.03

    ResidentialSquare FeetAvg Pr/SFUnitsAvg SF/UnitAvg Pr/UnitBuild-out YrsBld ScheduleAbsorptionRate/Yr

    Urban Core3,360,0002682,4001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    Other3,640,0002682,6001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    All Residential7,000,0002685,0001,400375,000152010-20242011-20250.0666666667

    Hard ConstructionCost/SF20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core175$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667$46,666,667

    Office Campus150$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000$30,000,000

    Corporate Office125$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000$25,000,000

    Cmcl-Retail165$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000$13,200,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant295$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000$5,900,000

    All Residential140$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333

    Total Hard Construction:$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000$186,100,000

    Absorption/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333$55,733,333

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000$38,000,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000$34,200,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$17,100,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$41,040,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$4,275,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$10,260,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000$2,565,000

    All Residential$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000$125,000,000

    Cumulative Absorption (Mkt Value)20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)$55,733,333$111,466,667$167,200,000$222,933,333$278,666,667$334,400,000$390,133,333$445,866,667$501,600,000$557,333,333$613,066,667$668,800,000$724,533,333$780,266,667$836,000,000

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)$38,000,000$76,000,000$114,000,000$152,000,000$190,000,000$228,000,000$266,000,000$304,000,000$342,000,000$380,000,000$418,000,000$456,000,000$494,000,000$532,000,000$570,000,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)$34,200,000$68,400,000$102,600,000$136,800,000$171,000,000$205,200,000$239,400,000$273,600,000$307,800,000$342,000,000$376,200,000$410,400,000$444,600,000$478,800,000$513,000,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)$17,100,000$34,200,000$51,300,000$68,400,000$85,500,000$126,540,000$167,580,000$208,620,000$249,660,000$290,700,000$300,960,000$311,220,000$321,480,000$331,740,000$342,000,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)$4,275,000$8,550,000$12,825,000$17,100,000$21,375,000$31,635,000$41,895,000$52,155,000$62,415,000$72,675,000$75,240,000$77,805,000$80,370,000$82,935,000$85,500,000

    All Residential$125,000,000$250,000,000$375,000,000$500,000,000$625,000,000$750,000,000$875,000,000$1,000,000,000$1,125,000,000$1,250,000,000$1,375,000,000$1,500,000,000$1,625,000,000$1,750,000,000$1,875,000,000$1,875,000,000

    Aggregated Market Value20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office$127,933,333$255,866,667$383,800,000$511,733,333$639,666,667$767,600,000$895,533,333$1,023,466,667$1,151,400,000$1,279,333,333$1,407,266,667$1,535,200,000$1,663,133,333$1,791,066,667$1,919,000,000

    Commercial$21,375,000$42,750,000$64,125,000$85,500,000$106,875,000$158,175,000$209,475,000$260,775,000$312,075,000$363,375,000$376,200,000$389,025,000$401,850,000$414,675,000$427,500,000

    Total Office+Commercial$149,308,333$298,616,667$447,925,000$597,233,333$746,541,667$925,775,000$1,105,008,333$1,284,241,667$1,463,475,000$1,642,708,333$1,783,466,667$1,924,225,000$2,064,983,333$2,205,741,667$2,346,500,000

    Residential$125,000,000$250,000,000$375,000,000$500,000,000$625,000,000$750,000,000$875,000,000$1,000,000,000$1,125,000,000$1,250,000,000$1,375,000,000$1,500,000,000$1,625,000,000$1,750,000,000$1,875,000,000$1,875,000,000

    Grand Total Value$125,000,000$399,308,333$673,616,667$947,925,000$1,222,233,333$1,496,541,667$1,800,775,000$2,105,008,333$2,409,241,667$2,713,475,000$3,017,708,333$3,283,466,667$3,549,225,000$3,814,983,333$4,080,741,667$4,221,500,000

    Cumulative Office & Cmcl SF/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Core (.95 occupancy)253,333506,667760,0001,013,3331,266,6671,520,0001,773,3332,026,6672,280,0002,533,3332,786,6673,040,0003,293,3333,546,6673,800,000

    Office Campus (.95 occupancy)190,000380,000570,000760,000950,0001,140,0001,330,0001,520,0001,710,0001,900,0002,090,0002,280,0002,470,0002,660,0002,850,000

    Corporate Office (.95 occupancy)190,000380,000570,000760,000950,0001,140,0001,330,0001,520,0001,710,0001,900,0002,090,0002,280,0002,470,0002,660,0002,850,000

    TOTAL CUMULATIVE OCCUPIED OFFICE SF/YR633,3331,266,6671,900,0002,533,3333,166,6673,800,0004,433,3335,066,6675,700,0006,333,3336,966,6677,600,0008,233,3338,866,6679,500,000

    Cmcl-Retail (.95 occupancy)57,000114,000171,000228,000285,000421,800558,600695,400832,200969,0001,003,2001,037,4001,071,6001,105,8001,140,000

    Cmcl-Restaurant (.95 occupancy)14,25028,50042,75057,00071,250105,450139,650173,850208,050242,250250,800259,350267,900276,450285,000

    Cumulative Families/Year20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Cumulative Number of Families (Units)3336671,0001,3331,6672,0002,3332,6673,0003,3333,6674,0004,3334,6675,0005,000

    Wtd Avg Income/Family:$153,000Total Income:$51,000,000$102,000,000$153,000,000$204,000,000$255,000,000$306,000,000$357,000,000$408,000,000$459,000,000$510,000,000$561,000,000$612,000,000$663,000,000$714,000,000$765,000,000$765,000,000

    Retail Purchases Rate:0.184Retail Buying:$9,384,000$18,768,000$28,152,000$37,536,000$46,920,000$56,304,000$65,688,000$75,072,000$84,456,000$93,840,000$103,224,000$112,608,000$121,992,000$131,376,000$140,760,000$140,760,000

    Tax & Rev ParametersMkt Val Assess FactorEff RatePer $ BasisTotal Factor$ Source

    Ofc & Cmcl Property0.40$4.04$100.000.01616Assess Mkt

    Residential Property0.25$4.04$100.000.0101Assess Mkt

    Other Local Fee Revsna$757.00Per Household757Households

    Local Option Sales1.00$0.0225$1.000.0225Gross Sales--incl constr mtls cost (hard cost*0.6)

    Tax & Other Revenues20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Offc & Cmcl Property$2,412,823$4,825,645$7,238,468$9,651,291$12,064,113$14,960,524$17,856,935$20,753,345$23,649,756$26,546,167$28,820,821$31,095,476$33,370,131$35,644,785$37,919,440

    Residential Property$1,262,500$2,525,000$3,787,500$5,050,000$6,312,500$7,575,000$8,837,500$10,100,000$11,362,500$12,625,000$13,887,500$15,150,000$16,412,500$17,675,000$18,937,500$18,937,500

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$252,333$504,667$757,000$1,009,333$1,261,667$1,514,000$1,766,333$2,018,667$2,271,000$2,523,333$2,775,667$3,028,000$3,280,333$3,532,667$3,785,000$3,785,000

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$211,140$422,280$633,420$844,560$1,055,700$1,266,840$1,477,980$1,689,120$1,900,260$2,111,400$2,322,540$2,533,680$2,744,820$2,955,960$3,167,100$3,167,100

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$2,512,350$0$0

    Total Revenues$2,512,350$4,238,323$8,377,119$12,515,915$16,654,711$20,793,507$24,932,303$29,554,687$34,177,071$38,799,455$43,421,839$48,044,223$52,044,851$56,045,479$60,046,107$61,534,385$63,809,040

    Direct Office & Commercial Employment201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office Jobs:2,5335,0677,60010,13312,66715,20017,73320,26722,80025,33327,86730,40032,93335,46738,000

    NAICSRetail Jobs:1783565347138911,3181,7462,1732,6013,0283,1353,2423,3493,4563,563

    See Breakout BelowSF/Office Job:250

    44SF/Retail Job:400Retail Jobs:1432854285707131,0551,3971,7392,0812,4232,5082,5942,6792,7652,850

    7221SF/Restaurant Job:400Restrnt Jobs:3671107143178264349435520606627648670691713

    Industry Breakout for Direct Office Jobs201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    NAICSSectorProportionCompetitive

    551Management of Companies0.05Yes1272533805076337608871,0131,1401,2671,3931,5201,6471,7731,900

    561Administrative & Support0.40Yes1,0132,0273,0404,0535,0676,0807,0938,1079,12010,13311,14712,16013,17314,18715,200

    541Professional, R&D, Tech0.30Partly Yes7601,5202,2803,0403,8004,5605,3206,0806,8407,6008,3609,1209,88010,64011,400

    52Financial & Insurance0.15Less3807601,1401,5201,9002,2802,6603,0403,4203,8004,1804,5604,9405,3205,700

    531Real Estate0.10Less2535077601,0131,2671,5201,7732,0272,2802,5332,7873,0403,2933,5473,800

    Total2,5335,0677,60010,13312,66715,20017,73320,26722,80025,33327,86730,40032,93335,46738,000

    Modeling Inputs20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Construction (by local final demand type; nat'l displacement because could invest anywhere; local productivity)

    Office+Cmcl$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$120,766,667$0$0

    Residential$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$65,333,333$0$0

    BLS: 2007*0.87 = 2002

    Office+Cmcl (/1000=input)105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,067105,06700

    Residential (/1000=input)56,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84056,84000

    Office Employment (new office jobs as nat'l displacement because could work anywhere; infer sales & payroll from #jobs; nat'l productivity)

    ABOVE: SEE INDUSTRY BREAKOUT FOR #DIRECT NEW OFFICE JOBS BY NAICS SECTOR

    Retail Commercial Employment (new retail jobs as local displacement, using direct high-productivity data for output [sales], jobs, & payroll)

    Wage rate:24,300(2007:2002)21,141

    Productivity:240,000(2007:2002)208,800

    Payroll (#jobs*wg rate/1000)3,0136,0259,03812,05015,06322,29329,52336,75443,98451,21453,02254,82956,63758,44460,252

    Sales (#jobs*prod*.25/1000)7,43914,87722,31629,75437,19355,04572,89790,750108,602126,455130,918135,381139,844144,307148,770

    Jobs (from NAICS 44 above)1432854285707131,0551,3971,7392,0812,4232,5082,5942,6792,7652,850

    Restaurant Commercial Employment (new restrnt jobs as local displacement, using direct high-productivity data for output [sales], jobs, & payroll)

    Wage rate:24,300(2007:2002)21,141

    Productivity:260,000(2007:2002)226,200

    Payroll (#jobs*wg rate/1000)7531,5062,2593,0133,7665,5737,3819,18810,99612,80413,25513,70714,15914,61115,063

    Sales (#jobs*prod/1000)8,05816,11724,17532,23440,29259,63278,97298,312117,652136,992141,827146,662151,497156,332161,168

    Jobs (NAICS 7221 above)3671107143178264349435520606627648670691713

    Graphics

    Hard Construction Costs $ Million

    Annually: 2010 - 2024 $ MillionTotal

    Office Core$47$700$0

    Office Campus$30$450$0

    Corporate Office$25$3750.000375

    Cmcl-Retail$13$1980

    Cmcl-Restaurant$6$890

    All Residential$65$9800.00098

    Total$186$2.8

    Billion

    Graphics

    0.12500

    0.250.12793333330.021375

    0.3750.25586666670.04275

    0.50.38380.064125

    0.6250.51173333330.0855

    0.750.63966666670.106875

    0.8750.76760.158175

    10.89553333330.209475

    1.1251.02346666670.260775

    1.251.15140.312075

    1.3751.27933333330.363375

    1.51.40726666670.3762

    1.6251.53520.389025

    1.751.66313333330.40185

    1.8751.79106666670.414675

    1.8751.9190.4275

    Residential

    Office

    Commercial

    Aggregate Market Value$ Billion

    Chart Drivers

    333.3333333333

    666.6666666667

    1000

    1333.3333333333

    1666.6666666667

    2000

    2333.3333333333

    2666.6666666667

    3000

    3333.3333333333

    3666.6666666667

    4000

    4333.3333333333

    4666.6666666667

    5000

    5000

    Occupancy by Families

    Residential Build out - Units

    Sheet4

    519.384

    10218.768

    15328.152

    20437.536

    25546.92

    30656.304

    35765.688

    40875.072

    45984.456

    51093.84

    561103.224

    612112.608

    663121.992

    714131.376

    765140.76

    765140.76

    Total Income

    Retail Spending

    Residential Income & Spending$1,000,000

    126.66666666671013.3333333333760380253.3333333333

    253.33333333332026.66666666671520760506.6666666667

    380304022801140760

    506.66666666674053.3333333333304015201013.3333333333

    633.33333333335066.6666666667380019001266.6666666667

    7606080456022801520

    886.66666666677093.3333333333532026601773.3333333333

    1013.33333333338106.6666666667608030402026.6666666667

    11409120684034202280

    1266.666666666710133.3333333333760038002533.3333333333

    1393.333333333311146.6666666667836041802786.6666666667

    152012160912045603040

    1646.666666666713173.3333333333988049403293.3333333333

    1773.333333333314186.66666666671064053203546.6666666667

    1900152001140057003800

    Management

    Admin

    Professional

    Finance/Insurance

    Real Estate

    Direct Office Job Creation

    142.535.625

    28571.25

    427.5106.875

    570142.5

    712.5178.125

    1054.5263.625

    1396.5349.125

    1738.5434.625

    2080.5520.125

    2422.5605.625

    2508627

    2593.5648.375

    2679669.75

    2764.5691.125

    2850712.5

    Retail

    Restaurant

    Retail Sector Direct Job Creation

    919.8489358.3941199.58932209.98996

    917.40621357.27319198.95576209.27799

    1007.53739430.4873240.17716231.43584

    1081.4959497.51782278.06253249.94159

    1155.82114564.62028316.02482268.50895

    1230.50541631.77119354.0479287.13521

    1305.54105698.94987392.11738305.818

    1381.95527766.51294429.29799324.78696

    1458.67521834.08644466.55732343.80275

    1535.69479901.65636503.88208362.86381

    1613.00768969.231541.2753381.96968

    1690.608591036.79975578.72636401.11923

    1767.249571103.90965617.30454420.0342

    1844.200331171.02157655.8917438.999

    1921.455631238.12932694.48215458.01289

    1279.963141025.59569576.8006314.11671

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Davidson

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Construction Job Impacts

    0.01821349460.02018852090.00825832270.0039533989

    0.01908271530.02127197720.0086285930.0041294543

    0.10838461190.04756005670.01731365490.0070448994

    0.20026841940.07375846330.02598484080.0098978041

    0.29556346030.10093175190.03500315530.0128578715

    0.39432273560.1290791890.04436609190.0159248144

    0.49659055970.1581971730.05407016530.0190980528

    0.60381910040.188388240.06352789030.0223592309

    0.71453945470.21955071920.07332703790.0257267116

    0.8287687060.25167386530.08346176170.029199155

    0.9464323920.28475819170.09393400650.0327766664

    1.06753061210.31878914920.10473670520.0364575071

    1.1901214430.35361804450.11661668570.0402631371

    1.31603625940.38936928610.1288176790.0441693097

    1.44525462040.42602313510.1413310320.0481737534

    1.55793911130.44127779420.14521388830.0479829757

    1.6936014790.47969021110.158337250.0521789376

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Investment Demand Growth: Non-Residential $ Billion

    2.3496070233.03372164371.54891367820.8266693908

    2.34743894253.03339978161.5435369310.8266119655

    9.20792614947.89655064373.19199836782.0299353103

    16.33446695412.95499694254.91369680463.2798515172

    23.72633990818.21200160926.70539260924.5772866207

    31.380956229923.66594880468.56657249435.9218058621

    39.295198275929.314787206910.49654874717.3128793793

    47.520123620735.157354287312.38852054028.7512682759

    56.002461494241.193248195414.349052494210.2358328621

    64.737679988547.419263781616.377027942511.7657856207

    73.725121632253.834662183918.472377011513.3409857126

    82.959536758660.435631712620.633736563214.9605123218

    92.366147816167.216643701122.995671413816.6217151264

    102.010924344874.176352057525.421110770118.3256418851

    111.887728459781.310197068927.908402678220.0712080115

    119.656594850585.624985068928.941886620721.044213023

    129.983980390893.099238402331.550796735622.8714531494

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Investment Demand Growth: Residential $ 1,000,000

    1224.665821395.32394630.41643316.95157

    1215.996481388.0806624.21077315.11037

    5439.229672556.592531150.46763533.98144

    9666.466923716.390451675.41442750.29437

    13911.980644887.108552205.0891968.43688

    18172.355126067.994062739.105641188.26426

    22448.232077258.308493277.082741409.63746

    26863.192078419.016633742.712931625.10119

    31294.65199589.741724214.719491842.22811

    35744.0848110769.670614692.57222060.87072

    40206.7127411958.384145176.125032280.94697

    44684.101713155.100315664.863542502.31839

    48997.3238914403.791626247.899412733.38316

    53272.0707915657.590986832.481232965.20166

    57642.3898816915.895857418.316943197.67451

    60995.7908117079.282687512.565633182.74576

    65344.2449718361.874718107.891673420.15306

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Job Creation Direct plus Secondary

    0.14801258670.14839024490.06653987220.0306540259

    0.14869441440.15011883830.06657520110.0307040296

    0.71725807220.33285991380.13013601630.0505432356

    1.30474072040.52084988090.19630547680.0710951482

    1.91245305990.71585752460.26516745040.0924203955

    2.54041767440.9178836390.33670664380.1145170745

    3.18857317921.12690933940.41090061950.137381219

    3.87366793111.34218682310.48198591050.1606805775

    4.57926807441.56446135580.55572229490.1847473923

    5.30512724561.79366321580.63206930640.209572172

    6.05157346782.02977952050.7110315840.2351553823

    6.81826849022.27271305770.7925588760.2614846486

    7.58376788912.52329146530.88398915740.2889711915

    8.36929918842.7805029030.97790586020.3171834477

    9.17437997463.04421361731.07424676890.3461052613

    9.84999587863.16293959511.10673432170.3450269937

    10.69331529063.43932294441.20780977570.3753326167

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Regional Total Output Effects $ Billion

    0.04498810570.05808690030.02965716890.0158283021

    0.04544992420.05873115090.02988518080.0160044426

    0.18021458360.15454876190.06247277050.0397292443

    0.31969296010.25355105460.09616930170.0641922046

    0.46436433220.35643946750.13123579820.0895851892

    0.61417803250.46318237640.16766221540.1158996891

    0.76907304560.57373963380.20543509280.1431253349

    0.93004865150.68808848670.24246415950.1712770219

    1.09606225340.806221070.28083506290.2003324448

    1.26702515560.9280746560.32052594990.2302761912

    1.44292448741.05363478030.36153545140.2611055031

    1.62365750291.18282684190.40383688840.2928023594

    1.80776068511.31554263920.45006392180.325314889

    1.99652516471.45175582370.49753384460.3586635983

    2.1898308141.59137715530.5462143260.3928272598

    2.341880581.6758248050.56644134240.4118706027

    2.54400486581.82210849960.61750209670.4476327618

    Davidson

    MSA excl Davidson-Dickson-Sumner

    Rest of TN

    Dickson & Sumner

    Demand Growth - Personal Consumption $ Billion

    2533.3333333333178.125

    5066.6666666667356.25

    7600534.375

    10133.3333333333712.5

    12666.6666666667890.625

    152001318.125

    17733.33333333331745.625

    20266.66666666672173.125

    228002600.625

    25333.33333333333028.125

    27866.66666666673135

    304003241.875

    32933.33333333333348.75

    35466.66666666673455.625

    380003562.5

    Office Jobs:

    Retail Jobs:

    May Town Center: Total Direct Employment

    $ 1000000 all numbers

    Aggregated Market Value20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    Office0.000.000.130.260.380.510.640.770.901.021.151.281.411.541.661.791.92

    Commercial0.000.000.020.040.060.090.110.160.210.260.310.360.380.390.400.410.43

    Total Office+Commercial0.000.000.150.300.450.600.750.931.111.281.461.641.781.922.062.212.35

    Residential0.000.130.250.380.500.630.750.881.001.131.251.381.501.631.751.881.88

    Total$0.00$0.13$0.40$0.67$0.95$1.22$1.50$1.80$2.11$2.41$2.71$3.02$3.28$3.55$3.81$4.08$4.22

    Residentials

    Total Income:$51$102$153$204$255$306$357$408$459$510$561$612$663$714$765$765

    Retail Buying:$9$19$28$38$47$56$66$75$84$94$103$113$122$131$141$141

    DIRECT

    Tax & Other Revenues DavidsonTotal

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$2.51$0.00$0.00$37.69

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$0.00$0.25$0.50$0.76$1.01$1.26$1.51$1.77$2.02$2.27$2.52$2.78$3.03$3.28$3.53$3.79$3.79$34.07

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$0.00$0.21$0.42$0.63$0.84$1.06$1.27$1.48$1.69$1.90$2.11$2.32$2.53$2.74$2.96$3.17$3.17$28.50

    Offc & Cmcl Property$0.00$0.00$2.41$4.83$7.24$9.65$12.06$14.96$17.86$20.75$23.65$26.55$28.82$31.10$33.37$35.64$37.92$306.81

    Residential Property$0.00$1.26$2.53$3.79$5.05$6.31$7.58$8.84$10.10$11.36$12.63$13.89$15.15$16.41$17.68$18.94$18.94$170.44

    Total$2.51$4.24$8.38$12.52$16.65$20.79$24.93$29.55$34.18$38.80$43.42$48.04$52.04$56.05$60.05$61.53$63.81$577.50

    Total Property$0.00$1.26$4.94$8.61$12.29$15.96$19.64$23.80$27.96$32.12$36.27$40.43$43.97$47.51$51.05$54.58$56.86$477.25

    Total Sales$2.51$2.98$3.44$3.90$4.37$4.83$5.29$5.76$6.22$6.68$7.15$7.61$8.07$8.54$9.00$6.95$6.95$100.25

    Total Property plus Sales and Use Government Revenues $ Million

    201220182024Total

    Constr Mtls Sales Tax$2.5$2.5$0.0$38

    Other Fee Rev (Family)$0.5$2.0$3.8$34

    Local Sales Tx (Family)$0.4$1.7$3.2$29125000000000

    Offc & Cmcl Property$2.4$17.9$37.9$307

    Residential Property$2.5$10.1$18.9$170

    Total Direct$8.4$34.2$63.8$578

    Total w/Multiplier$8.4$50.2$99.5$897

    Tax & Other Revenues Total Davidson201220182024

    Property Tax1.471.495.8910.4415.1520.0125.0330.2335.5841.0846.7352.52