may 2016 calix investor presentation
TRANSCRIPT
May 2016
1
This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements relate to future events and expectations and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements about our development of new products and product features; our anticipated growth and growth drivers; our future financial condition and results of operations; our future business, operational and financial performance; and the success and/or market adoption of our products and solutions. We have based these forward-looking statements on our current expectations, assumptions and projections. Our actual results or actions may differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and factors that could cause results to differ materially as described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Except as may be required by law, Calix, Inc. undertakes no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any obligation to, update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, changes in assumptions or otherwise.
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3
1.
2.
3.
4.
Calix at a Glance
Value Shift from Hardware to Software
The Access Market Opportunity
Financials Update
5. Appendix
Calix at a Glance
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2010 2011 2012 2014 2015
• IPO on NYSE • Occam acquisition
• EMEA and Australia expansion
• Ericsson fiber access products acquisition
• Ericsson global reseller agreement
• Launched Open Link Cable
• Introduced GigaCenter
• Introduced AXOS platform
• Launched G.fast and NG-PON2 products
• Expanded GigaCenter platform
Serving over 1,200 customers in more than 70 countries
5
22%
66%
12%
Customer Mix - 2015
Tier 1 Tier 2/3 International
Data Center Outside Plant
Broadband Aggregation Optimization
Success-based Pay-as-you-grow Architecture
Subscriber Edge
Technology & Service
Optimization
E3-48C
716EE7-2
E7-20
E5-48
E5-216F
GigaFamily
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E3-8G
Value Shift from Hardware to Software
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The World’s Most Advanced Operating System for Access Networks
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FAST. Time to Revenue
Speed of New Features. Individual software components are containerized which simplifies adds /deletes /changes and eliminates the need to constantly re-test the entire OS, thus maximizing reuse, while leveraging industry standards and open source software
Speed of New Products. The unique hardware and software abstraction layers (HAL / SAL) preserve software independence from the underlying hardware and allow rapid development for any new access technology
ALWAYS ON. Resilient
Eliminates maintenance windows through the live upgrade functionality
Minimizes downtime using self-diagnosis, self-healing and process auto-restart
Provides unprecedented visibility into application performance via monitoring and streaming data off the systems to feed third-party or open source monitoring tools
SIMPLE. Operational ease and flexibility
Plugs into any open standard orchestration and management solution because it supports dynamic “state” manipulation through standard, open interfaces
Portable across the network with common, stable field deployed components
Rapid delivery of new services, superior customer experience and unparalleled reliability
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Controlled environment
Short lifecycle / Easy to replace
Partially to fully exposed environments
Long lifecycle / Difficult to replace
Data Center Access NetworkData Center Access Networkvs.
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The Access Market Opportunity
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12
Source: Infonetics, Morgan Stanley Research, UBS Research, Barclays Research, Company estimates
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• 10 percent of all Americans (34 million people) lack access to 25 Mbps/3 Mbps service
• Wide disparity between urban and rural subscribers
• 4 percent of urban Americans lack access to 25Mbps/3Mbps service
• 39 percent of rural Americans lack access to 25 Mbps/3 Mbps service
• US broadband access ranked 16th out of 34 countries
• Universal Service Fund transitioned to Connect America Fund to accelerate broadband penetration
Source: FCC Broadband in America (January 2015)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Barclays Research, Nielsen Global Digital Landscape Report March 2015, Nielsen Total Audience 4Q14 Report, Comscore
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DOCSIS 3.024 Bonded
Gigabit GPON DOCSIS 3.1 (initial)
10000
Gigabit FTTH
10G PONXGS/NG-PON2
…
10G XGS/NG-PON2
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Lower Operating Costs
Source: RVA LLC: North American FTTH Accelerates, (Q4 2014), RVA LLC North America FTTH Progress and Impact 2015 (June 2015), Google Fiber Kansas City, Bernstein Proprietary Census. Survey conducted by Haynes and Company (May 2014)
Estimated Operating Expense Savings
High Customer Take Rates
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
100% Aerial/0% MDU
100% Aerial/20% MDU
50% Aerial/0% MDU
50% Aerial/50% MDU
Non-Electronics/Sub Electronics/Sub
Source: Suburban FTTP Network Scenarios, Telecom & Networking Equipment, The FTTP Renaissance, Implications for Vendors – Jefferies Group LLC May 6, 2015
Electronics represent ~15-25% of the total capex cost per unit served in a fiber deployment after initial build costs
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• Calix is a leader in G.fast technology as the first company in the world to publicly demonstrate a true gigabit experience via bonded G.fast over copper at Broadband World Forum 2015 with speeds up to with 1.5 Gb/s at 250m
• G.fast solutions are ideally suited for short loops < 500 m and speeds from 150Mb/s to >1 Gb/s
• Per U.S. Census data there are over 34 million multi-tenant housing units in the U.S. (per 2013 ACS) with an estimated more than 50% of these units built before 1980
• Aged residential and commercial units are characterized by difficulties in riser access and restricted building access
• G.fast provides fiber-like broadband speeds when fiber is not available
MDU
Riser
GPON/GE
G.fast
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CAPEX $25K
CAPEX $8K
OPEX $1K
OPEX $32K
Central
Office
Generic
Home
20
Mbps
MDU
1:32
split
BPON
ONTs
+ 1 GPON system
+ 32 GPON ONTs
+ 2 CO techs (day)
+ 32 techs in field
(simultaneously)
GPON
ONTs
GPON
OLTs
BPON
OLTs
Total cash spend = $66K -- or $2,063 per home
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CAPEX $4K
OPEX $120
Home
MDU
1:32
split
BPON
OLTs
GPON
OLTs
BPON
OLTs
+ 1 GPON line card
+ 1 GPON OIM
- 1 BPON trade-in
+ 1 CO tech (2 hrs)
+ 0 techs in field
(no truck roll)
80 Mbps
to 1Gbps
GPON
ONTs
Auto-
detect
PO
ONTs
Central
Office
GPON
OLTs
Total cash spend = $4.12K -- or $128 per home
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Financials
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($ in millions, except per share amounts) Actual Guidance
Revenues $98.4 $95.0-$99.0
Non-GAAP gross margin 48.1% 47%-48%
Non-GAAP operating expenses $51.7* $52.0-$53.0**
Non-GAAP EPS – excluding Occam litigation ($0.02) ($0.10) – ($0.06)
Non-GAAP EPS – including Occam litigation ($0.09) ($0.15) – ($0.11)
Cash flow from operations $5.3 Negative
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* Included approximately $3.4M of Occam litigation-related expenses** Included approximately $2.6M of Occam litigation-related expenses
Please refer to the reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures on the Investor Relations section of our website
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$75.0
$80.0
$85.0
$90.0
$95.0
$100.0
$105.0
$110.0
$115.0
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
RE
VE
NU
ES
IN $
M
($0.15)
($0.10)
($0.05)
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
NO
N-G
AA
P E
PS
Revenues +8% y/y
2 > 10% customers
Growth across customers, platforms and geographies
Gross margins of 48.1%
Favorable product and customer mix, offset by full quarter contribution from turnkey network improvement program
Revenues within guidance
Growth across customers, platforms and geographies
EPS above guidance
Better performance on gross margin and operating expenses contained
$0.5M
$20.5M
$40.5M
$60.5M
$80.5M
$100.5M
$120.5M
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
Domestic Revenues International Revenues
45.9%
47.7%
44.8%
48.1%
49.2%
51.0%
49.3%
46.5%
48.1%
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
Gross Margin (%)
Please refer to the reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures on the Investor Relations section of our website
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$75.5M$79.3M
$88.1M
$112.0M
$97.8M$99.5M$93.9M
$73.6M
$64.3M
$0.0M
$20.0M
$40.0M
$60.0M
$80.0M
$100.0M
$120.0M
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
Cash of $64.3M
Operating cash flow generation of $3.2M
No debt and untapped $50M line of credit expiring September 2018
Buyback activity complete
Program completed. Repurchased 5.3M shares at an average cost of $7.50 per share 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.8
5.3 $3.4
$7.7
$16.1 $12.8
$40.0
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 TotalBuyback
Shares (M) Repurchased
$M Repurchased
Operating cash flow rebounds
Improved cash cycle
Strong collection culture
Cash conversion cycle improvement
Inventory velocity improves by 10 days
Linearity and key focus on working capital
-$5.2M
$4.7M
$15.1M
-$2.5M
-$11.9M
$5.0M$5.1M
-$4.5M
$5.3M
-$15.0M
-$10.0M
-$5.0M
$0.0M
$5.0M
$10.0M
$15.0M
$20.0M
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
132 Days
115 Days
101 Days
91 Days
113 Days108 Days
90 Days
104 Days107 Days
0 Days
20 Days
40 Days
60 Days
80 Days
100 Days
120 Days
140 Days
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
Please refer to the reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures on the Investor Relations section of our website
Revenues $104-$108M
Gross margin 46.0-47.0%
Operating expenses– excluding litigation $49.6-$50.6M*
Operating expenses $52.0-$53.0M*
Non-GAAP EPS– excluding litigation ($0.04) – $0.00*
Non-GAAP EPS ($0.09) – ($0.05)*
Cash flow from operations Negative
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*Does not take into account $4.5M (or $0.09) litigation settlement proceeds likely to be realized in Q2 or Q3 2016
Please refer to the reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures on the Investor Relations section of our website
Predictable, profitable long-term growth
Reaccelerated top-line growth rate
Increased leverage from Operating Expense investments
Accelerated rate of change across industry
Demand drivers remain intact
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Q&A
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Appendix
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PARTNERSSALESENGINEERING
LEVERAGE
Solve a hard problem once
Reuse successful components
Leverage silicon innovation
Can integrate Open Source value
CUSTOMERS
VALUE
ConsistentBehavior
Service Resiliency
Workflow Simplicity
Upgradability( features + fixes)
Reduce OPEX
PORTFOLIO EFFECT
Cross-selling and pull-through sales
Sell once, train once
Solution DeliveryEnd to End
Reduce Cost of Sales
INTEGRATION
Tighter integration
Broader opportunities
Round out the portfolio
Solution Ecosystemversus largervendors
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Infrastructure Layer
Protocol Framework Layer
Protocol and Services Layer
User Interface Layer
Policy and Management Layer
Hardware Abstraction Layer
AXOS
Merchant Silicon / New Technology
Decoupled hardware and software, loosely coupled components
Simplistic 3-layer model transformed to fine-grained independent software components abstracted from the physical layer
Support for 3rd party components with internal and external APIs
DATA PLANE
CONTROL PLANE
MANAGEMENT PLANE
D1 D2 D3 D4
C1 C2 C3 C4
B1 B2 B3 B4
A1 A2 A3 A4
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Source: AT&T Vision Alignment Challenge Technology Survey, AT&T Domain 2.0 Vision White Paper, November 13, 2013
34
Source: “Evaluating “The State of the State” of Virtualization, Light Reading, June 2015
NFV requires faster broadband connections, driven by shared functionality between the data center and the subscriber edge
SDN demands flexible, rapidly deployable software applications in order to provide customer friendly solutions on demand
The key differentiator for a systems vendor is to have an operating system that facilitates network operators’ flexible deployment of software applications across their networks as well as in customer specific situations
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“…to capture the cost saving and revenue generating potential of SDN and NFV, communications service providers (CSPs) have to embrace new ways of achieving traditional objectives...What that requires of vendors is to design network platforms and applications that evolve so that they no longer rely on the hardware providing the reliability but instead are designed to assume the probability of hardware failures and perform failover in software instead”
“A significant part of the value proposition of a more software-centric network is that it enables CSPs to respond much more rapidly to both network conditions and customer demands.”
Source: Evaluating “The State of the State” of Virtualization, Hewlett-Packard, Light Reading, Heavy Reading (July 2015)
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Expanded Revenues
•New Products & Markets
•Focus on NFV & SDN
Opportunity
Increased Gross Profit
•Consistent Gross Margin
Expansion
•Funds R&D
R&D Investment
•Operating System
•Access Solutions
Long-Term Operating
Profit Growth
G.fastAXOS
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“Total Internet subscribers grew by more than 19,000 from a year ago, as we ended the quarter with over 290,000 subscribers. Fioptics Internet subscriber additions totaled nearly 11,000 for the quarter, which is a 15% increase compared to the first quarter of 2015, with Internet penetration rates exceeding 35%. Fioptics Internet ARPU totaled $47, up 12% compared to a year ago.” May 5, 2016
"In the consumer [wireline] business, FiOS remains the driver of revenue growth, and now represents around 81 percent of consumer revenue. In the first quarter, consumer revenue grew 28 percent," Verizon CFO Fran Shammo said during the company's earnings conference call with investors. “…fully 60 percent of new customer FiOS sales opt for 100 Mbps speeds and above.” April 21, 2016
“We are expanding and upgrading our broadband network to establish a strong foundation for sustaining growth. We will grow consumer revenue in 2016 as we benefit from employment of 50, 75 and 100 Meg premier speeds which were rolled out during the fourth quarter 2015 to approximately 1 million locations…. We also launched one gig Internet services in four market areas including Nebraska, Kentucky, Texas and in several areas surrounding Charlotte, North America North Carolina -- from our broadband infrastructure.” May 5, 2016
“We've got the rapidly expanding GPON markets. We've gone up again, and we're now at 1.5 million homes and businesses we're here passing the grid out. We've got -- with the exclusion of the last couple hundred thousand, I know we were at 21% penetration at the end of March. We just started over the last year with that GPON work….So that along with MDU and MTU focus we have now, we have fiber to a number of MDUs MTU that are going to help drive revenue.” May 4, 2016
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Source: Company reports
Latest QuarterWireline revenues +1% y/yFioptics revenues +34% y/y
Latest QuarterWireline revenues -2% y/yFios revenues +8% y/y
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$3
,12
5
$3
,20
0
$3
,30
8
$3
,35
2
$3
,43
8
$3
,43
9
$3
,53
4
$3
,52
1
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Fios Rev ($M)
30.0%32.0%34.0%36.0%38.0%40.0%42.0%44.0%
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Fios Internet Penetration Fios Video Penetration
$7
09
$7
12
$7
27
$7
38
$7
58
$7
63
$7
73
$7
74
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Consumer Strategic Rev ($M)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
Fioptics availability
$3
4
$3
7
$4
0
$4
2
$4
5
$4
9
$5
5
$5
8
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Fioptics Rev ($M)
0
100
200
300
400
6,000
6,020
6,040
6,060
6,080
6,100
6,120
6,140
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Broadband Subscribers ('000s) - LHS Prism Subscribers ('000s) - RHS
“Broadband access has become a necessity in our everyday lives. In the past few years, broadband has brought sweeping changes in the ways Americans communicate, gather information, conduct commerce, and entertain themselves.”
STATEMENT OF FCC CHAIRMAN TOM WHEELER
“Broadband is not just a technology, it’s a platform for opportunity.”
STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER JESSICA ROSENWORCEL
Source: 2015 BROADBAND PROGRESS REPORT AND NOTICE OF INQUIRY ON IMMEDIATE ACTION TO ACCELERATE DEPLOYMENT, FCC, January 9 2015
40
Source: Telecom & Networking Equipment, The FTTP Renaissance, Implications for Vendors – Jefferies Group LLC May 6, 2015
41
14
31
43
65
76
100
122
131
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
*Additional customer deployments from Calix customers have been secured but not yet announced.
Calix Gigabit Deployments
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45% of survey respondents currently deploying fiber cover at least 50% of customers with FTTH solutions (41% in 2013)
67% of survey respondents plan to offer FTTH to at least 50% of customers by 2017
85% of survey respondents have a long-term fiber deployment strategy with
74% of survey respondents plan to offer FTTN to more than 75% of customers by 2017
25% of survey respondents have already completed fiber deployments to 100% of customers
Source: NTCA 2014 Broadband/Internet Availability Survey Report, June 2015.
Additional information available at http://investor-relations.calix.com/ • Stock Information
• Financial Information
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• Corporate Governance
• Investor Resources
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