may 2010 the principles of short range missile defense rubinconltd. defense technology consulting 1 ...
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May 2010May 2010
The Principles of Short Range Missile DefenseThe Principles of Short Range Missile Defense
RubinconLtd.Defense Technology Consulting Defense Technology Consulting
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Classification of regional missiles and rockets.Distinctive features of TBM and SRBTDesign requirements for Short Range Missile
DefenseSummary
The Principles of Short Range Missile DefenseThe Principles of Short Range Missile Defense
Uzi Rubin and Dan HazanovskyUzi Rubin and Dan Hazanovsky
Based exclusively on pen sources. Copyright Rubincon and Aeordan Ltd.
Presentation to the First Annual Israel Multinational Ballistic Missile Defense Conference Airport City Israel May 2010
In Memoriam
Dan Hazanovsky 1945-2009
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The Principles of Short Range Missile DefenseThe Principles of Short Range Missile Defense
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Man Portable Rockets (ManPR)
Relatively light warheads (few Kgs).
Ranges: 4 – 12 Km.
Salvoes of 2 - 3 rounds (Typical).
Launched from individual scaffolds.
Various homemade Kassam class ManPRs.Janes Defense Weekly
Regional Ballistic Missiles Classification
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The Principles of Short Range Missile DefenseThe Principles of Short Range Missile Defense
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Ranges: 12 – 50 Km.
“Katyusha” Class Military Grade Rockets
Light warheads ( c. 15 – 20 Kg).
High rate of fire (24 RPM typ.)
Launched from mobile multiple launchers.
122 mm Grad
Regional Ballistic Missiles Classification
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The Principles of Short Range Missile DefenseThe Principles of Short Range Missile Defense
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Medium rockets
Ranges: 45 – 120 Km.
Medium weight warheads (50 – 150 Kgs).
Medium rate of fire (12+ RPM).
Fajer 3Fajer 5
WS-1
Launched from mobile multiple launchers
Regional Ballistic Missiles Classification
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Heavy rockets
Ranges: 150 – 250 Km.
Heavy warheads (250 – 600 Kg).
Launched from mobile, single round launchers.
Low rate of fire (1-2 per hour).
Fatah 110 Nazeat Zilzal
Regional Ballistic Missiles Classification
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Regional Ballistic Missiles Classification
Battlefield Ballistic Missiles
An emerging class of missiles
Ranges 150 -290 Km
Pinpoint accuracy
Medium to heavy warheads (150 -500 Kg.)
Fired from single or two round mobile launchers
Low rate of fire (1-4 per hour)
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Ballistic Missiles Classification
Theater Ballistic Missiles
Ranges 300 -2500 Km
Heavy warheads (500 – 1000 Kg.)
Fired from fixed and mobile single round launchers
Low rate of fire (Less than 1 Round per Hour)
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Range
Rate of fire
Rate of Fire Vs Range
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Range
Rate of fire
TBMSRBM
Rate of Fire Vs Range
300 Km
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The Principles of Short Range Missile DefenseThe Principles of Short Range Missile Defense
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The Fundamental Distinction Between TBM and SRBM
The most significant distinction is not range but potential damage
• Light and Medium Rockets are statistical weapon:
Light warheads, lesser damage per round.
High rate of fire but mediocre accuracy.
Destructive only when fired en masse
• TBM, Battlefield Missiles and Heavy Rockets are individual weapons:
Heavy (Conventional and WMD) warheads, High/intolerable
damage per round Low rate of fire but potentially pinpoint accuracy (for battlefield missile).
Destructive even when fired individually.
Heavy Rockets and Battlefield Missiles are basically TBMLight and medium rockets should be classified as SRBM
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The Principles of Short Range Missile DefenseThe Principles of Short Range Missile Defense
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The Key to Effective SRBM Defense: Extremely Low Cost Interceptor.
Implications
• The high potential damage from heavy rockets and battlefield missiles justify the use of “classic” interceptors (e.g. PAC 3 Vs. Zilzal).
• The high volume of SRBM fire dictates the need for very low cost
interceptors.
• TBMs, Battlefield Missiles and Heavy Rockets come in tens to
hundreds; Light and Medium Rockets come in ten thousands.
• Hence, affordable SRBM interceptors should cost about one hundredth
of typical TMD interceptors.
• This requires a breakthrough in weapon design: Consumer goods rather then aerospace standard of design and manufacturing.
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Extremely Low Cost Interceptor; Local Defense.
Sizing Considerations
• The damage from any individual TBM could be devastating even when impacting in open areas if it carries WMD. There is no way to know that it is not.
• In contrast, The damage from any individual SRBM is usually very
limited when impacting outside of population centers.
• Hence:
Against TBM, Area defense is mandatory.
Against SRBM, Local defense is acceptable.
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Performance Considerations
• Intuitively, interceptors for ManPRs (Few Km.) should be
very different from interceptors for medium rockets (40 – 150 Km.)
• Intuition is wrong in this case.
• The velocity requirements for ManPRs interceptors makes
them suitable for longer range threats, albeit with limited footprints.
Extremely Low Cost Interceptor; Local Defense; “One Size Fits All”.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Threat Range [km]
Def
end
ed A
rea
[km
2 ]
750 m/sec Interceptor
950 m/sec Interceptor
1200 m/sec Interceptor
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Architectural Considerations
• “Local Defense” does not imply a multitude of batteries but a
distributed architecture.
• Modern networking permits the centralization of sensors and BMC³
in conjunction with distributed launching sites.
Extremely Low Cost Interceptor; Local Defense; “One Size Fits All”; Distributed Architecture.
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Is Local Defense Robust Enough?
• Area defense require faster hence costlier interceptors, but is immune to saturation tactics which could stress local defense.
• Local defense counter saturation tactics require adequate
reserves of interceptors coupled with quick redeployment.
Very Inexpensive interceptor; Local Defense; “One Size Fits All”; Distributed Architecture; Quick Redeployment .
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Distributed FireDistributed FireConcentrated FireConcentrated Fire
Is Local Defense Robust Enough?
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Summary and conclusions
• From defender’s perspective, the important feature that distinguishes between classes of regional missiles is destructiveness rather than range.
• Highly destructive threats warrant the expenditure of “Classical”, high
cost interceptors to prevent severe consequences.
• Lesser destructive threats of short range but high rate of fire
necessitates a breakthrough in interceptor design and manufacturing.*
• To be affordable, anti SRBM interceptor design must emulate consumer goods kind of engineering approach.
• It is recommended that short range missile defense systems will be
specified against a wide spread of threat ranges and will be configured as local defense systems with distributed architecture.
* In the case of directed energy weapons, the necessary breakthrough is in the energy conversion system.