may 2010 ceri commodity report - natural gas · ceri commodity report - natural gas page 4 source:...
TRANSCRIPT
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 1
May 2010
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
CERI COMMODITY REPORT - NATURAL GAS
Editor-in-Chief: Mellisa Mei ([email protected])
CONTENTS
FEATURED ARTICLE................................................ 1
NATURAL GAS PRICES ........................................... 4
WEATHER ............................................................... 6
CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION ......................... 8
TRANSPORTATION .................................................10
STORAGE ................................................................12
LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS ......................................15
DRILLING ACTIVITY................................................17
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Since 1995, a tropical multi-decadal signal, which consistedof an enhanced West African monsoon system andsuppressed convection over the Amazon Basin, hasresulted in above normal Atlantic hurricane activity.1 Infact, 10 of the last 15 Atlantic hurricane seasons havebeen more active than the long-term average, while only2 Atlantic hurricane seasons have demonstrated belownormal activity.
With the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes,above average sea surface temperatures in the tropicalAtlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, and the expectationof a reduced wind shear from the development of eitherEl Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral or La Ninaconditions, Colorado State University (CSU), the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ClimatePrediction Centre, and the Weather Services International(WSI) Corporation are predicting storm activity to be aboveaverage during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Theclimate conditions expected over the 2010 Atlantichurricane season are similar to those exhibited in 2005,
when 27 tropical storms, 15 hurricanes, and 4 majorhurricanes, including the costliest hurricane (HurricaneKatrina) to make landfall in the US, were recorded. Figure1 displays the anticipated 2010 peak season (August toOctober) climate factors, which are historically indicativeof above normal Atlantic hurricane activity, and supportthe NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic hurricane forecast.
Figure 1: Climate Factors for an Active 2010Hurricane Season
Source: NOAA
The NOAA’s May 27, 2010 forecast puts the likelihood ofan above average hurricane season at 85 percent, with a70 percent chance of a 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy(ACE) index2 ranging between 155 percent and 270 percentof the median.3 Figure 2 provides the hurricane forecastsfrom the CSU, the NOAA, and WSI Corporation.
Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray, from theCSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, are expectingthe 2010 hurricane season to be more active than thelong-term (1950-2000) average season.4 The team’s 27th
annual Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane outlook, issuedJune 2, 2010, is forecasting 18 named storms, 10hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater),and an ACE index of 185. According to the CSU, theprobability of at least one major hurricane making landfall
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 2
is 50 percent along the US Gulf Coast (between the FloridaPanhandle and Brownsville), 51 percent for the US EastCoast, and 76 percent for the entire US coastline.5
The NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook isprobabilistic, and provides a range of values for theexpected number of named storms, hurricanes, and majorhurricanes, rather than an absolute value. In Figure 3,the lower bound of this range is indicated as “NOAA Low”,while the upper bound is shown as “NOAA High”. The May27 outlook estimated a 70 percent chance of 14 to 23named storms, 8 to 14 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 majorhurricanes occurring during the 2010 season. Althoughthe NOAA does not provide a hurricane landfall outlook,the organization has indicated that a positive correlationexists between the probability of multiple hurricane strikesand the seasonal hurricane activity level.6
In the WSI Corporation’s May 26 update of the 2010 Atlantichurricane season, the group is predicting 18 namedstorms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.7 The WSICorporation’s hurricane landfall forecasting model hasindicated that it is highly probable that a hurricane willstrike the US northeast coastline, between the Outer Banksand Maine. The WSI Corporation’s next hurricane updatewill be released on June 23, 2010.
If forecasts of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season come tofruition, this season could be one of the most active inrecorded history. However, it is highly unlikely that naturalgas prices will respond as they did in 2005, when a monthafter Hurricane Katrina made landfall, the average HenryHub spot price increased by $2.96/MMBTU, or 27 percent,to $13.93/MMBTU.
The most significant change, since 2005, has been theimpact of US shale gas production on the North Americansupply picture, as well as the decline in offshore naturalgas-directed drilling, relative to onshore natural gas-directed drilling. In 2005, an average of 76 natural gasrigs were operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), accountingfor 6.5 percent of total US natural gas drilling activity. By2009, drilling activity in the GOM declined to an averageof 37 rigs, or 4.6 percent of total US natural gas-directeddrilling. Over the same period of time, natural gasproduction from the GOM declined by an average of 1.9BCFPD, to 6.7 BCFPD. Figure 3 illustrates weekly historicalnatural gas-directed rig activity in the GOM, as a percentageof total US natural gas-directed rigs, between January 1,2005 and May 28, 2010.
Figure 3: GOM Drilling as a Percentage of Total USDrilling, 2005-2010
Source: Baker Hughes
Approximately 8.8 BCFPD of natural gas from the GOMwas shut-in when Hurricane Katrina made landfall at theend of August 2005.8 On September 23, 2005, whenHurricane Rita made landfall, 7.2 BCFPD of natural gasremained shut-in.9 While GOM production shut-ins maycause short-term price spikes, when combined with highspace cooling demand during the hot summer months of2010, it is unlikely that these shut-ins would result fromthe destruction of drilling infrastructure in the GOM, andproduction would be expected to resume relatively quickly.Many of the 167 platforms that were either damaged ordestroyed by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita10 weresubsequently rebuilt to withstand hurricanes of Category5 strength.
Figure 2: Forecasts of 2010 Hurricane Season
Sources: CSU, NOAA Climate Prediction Centre, WSI Corporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
CSU NOAA Low NOAA High WSI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1- Jan-05 1-Jan-06 1-Jan-07 1-Jan -08 1-Jan- 09 1-Jan-10
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 3
On a purely speculative note, a hurricane striking theTexas/Louisiana coastline would have a tendency to movethe oil slick from the BP accident site inland, possiblycollecting in populated centres, oil and gas infrastructure,and wild life habitats. The vapours emitted from thesecollections of oil could be deemed hazardous to humanhealth, resulting in the temporary relocation of humanactivities in these areas. In such a scenario, the continuingoperation of onshore hydrocarbon processing facilities,requiring human operators, might be impeded.Additionally, the coastal current created by the stormapproaching land, would drive the remnants of the oil slicktowards the Mexican coastline, the Florida Panhandle, andpossibly entering the Gulf Stream. Figure 4 shows the zonesof origin, and the paths, of the average hurricane in August.
Figure 4: Average August Hurricane Originsand Paths
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Centre
Endnotes1"The Tropical Multi-Decadal Signal since 1995", The National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/figure4.gif, Accessed on June 8, 2010.2 The NOAA calculates the accumulated cyclone energy index bysumming the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed,in knots, every six hours for all periods while the named system is atropical storm or hurricane.3 “NOAA: 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook”, NOAA/NationalWeather Service, May 27, 2010, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml, Accessed on June 7, 2010.4 Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Extended Range Forecastof Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probabilityfor 2010, Colorado State University, Department of AtmosphericScience, June 2, 2010, http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf, accessed on June 7, 2010.5 Ibid.6 “NOAA: 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook”, NOAA/NationalWeather Service, May 27, 2010, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml, Accessed on June 7, 2010.7 “WSI Raises Its April Forecast Numbers for 2010 Hurricane Season”,WSI Corporation, May 26, 2010, http://www.wsi.com/d2af3877-41d5-4009-bd79-67de31c5eb68/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm, Accessed on June 7, 2010.8 “Hurricane Katrina Evacuation and Production Shut-in StatisticsReport as of Tuesday, August 30, 3005", US Department of theInteriors, Offshore Energy and Minerals Management, August 30,2005, http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0830.htm,Accessed on June 10, 2010.9 “Hurricane Katrina/Hurricane Rita Evacuation and Production Shut-in Statistics Report as of Friday, September 23, 2005", US Departmentof the Interiors, Offshore Energy and Minerals Management,September 23, 2005, http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0923.htm, Accessed on June 10, 2010.10 “Hurricane Katrina and Rita Research”, US Department of theInteriors, Offshore Energy and Minerals Management, http://www.mms.gov/tarprojectcategories/hurricaneKatrinaRita.htm,Accessed on June 10, 2010.
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 4
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Pric
e D
aily
Pric
e G
uide
.SO
URCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly P
rice
Gui
de.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly P
rice
Gui
de.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly P
rice
Gui
de.
-10123456789101112131415 Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Jan-
05Ja
n-06
Jan-
07Ja
n-08
Jan-
09Ja
n-10
US$
/MM
Btu
AEC
O-C
Hen
ry H
ub
Diff
eren
tial
Hen
ry H
ub/
AE
CO
Beg
inni
ng o
f N
ext
Mon
th S
pot
Pri
ce
-3-2-10123456789101112131415 Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Jan-
05Ja
n-06
Jan-
07Ja
n-08
Jan-
09Ja
n-10
US$
/MM
Btu
Hen
ry H
ub/C
hica
goB
egin
ning
of
Nex
t M
onth
Spo
t P
rice
Chi
cago
Hen
ry H
ub
Diff
eren
tial
-10123456789101112131415 Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Jan-
05Ja
n-06
Jan-
07Ja
n-08
Jan-
09Ja
n-10
Hen
ry H
ub/R
ocki
esB
egin
ning
of
Nex
t M
onth
Spo
t P
rice
Roc
kies
Hen
ry H
ub
Diff
eren
tial
US$
/MM
Btu
-2-10123456789101112131415 Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Jan-
05Ja
n-06
Jan-
07Ja
n-08
Jan-
09Ja
n-10
Hen
ry H
ub/S
outh
ern
Cal
ifor
nia
Beg
inni
ng o
f N
ext
Mon
th S
pot
Pri
ce
Sout
hern
Cal
iforn
ia
Hen
ry H
ub
Diff
eren
tial
US$
/MM
Btu
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 5
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Can
adia
n G
as A
ssoc
iatio
n, S
tatis
tics
Cana
da.
SOU
RCE
: C
anad
ian
Gas
Ass
ocia
tion.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
NO
AA,
EIA.
SOU
RCE
: C
anad
ian
Gas
Ass
ocia
tion,
NO
AA.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
Can
adia
n H
eati
ng
Deg
ree
Day
s
01234567
0
200
400
600
800
1,00
0
1,20
0 Jan-
07M
ay-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10
Deg
ree
Day
sC
onsu
mpt
ion
Can
adia
n H
eati
ng D
egre
e D
ays
v.
Res
iden
tial
and
Com
mer
cial
Con
sum
ptio
nD
egre
e D
ays
BC
FPD
CER
I Est
imat
e
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,00
0
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
US
Hea
ting
Deg
ree
Day
s
0102030405060
0
200
400
600
800
1,00
0
1,20
0 Jan-
07Ju
n-07
Nov
-07
Apr
-08
Sep-
08Fe
b-09
Jul-0
9D
ec-0
9M
ay-1
0
Deg
ree
Day
sC
onsu
mpt
ion
US
Hea
ting
Deg
ree
Day
s v.
R
esid
enti
al a
nd C
omm
erci
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
Deg
ree
Day
sB
CFP
D
CER
I Est
imat
e
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 6
SOU
RCE
: E
nviro
nmen
t Ca
nada
.SO
URCE
: E
nviro
nmen
t Ca
nada
.
SOU
RCE
: N
OAA
.SO
URCE
: N
OAA
.
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 7
SOU
RCE
: N
OAA
.SO
URCE
: N
OAA
.
SOU
RCE
: E
nviro
nmen
t Ca
nada
.
Nor
th A
mer
ican
Wea
ther
•With
the
exce
ptio
nof
sout
hwes
tern
Briti
shC
olum
bia,
Env
ironm
ent
Can
ada
isfo
reca
stin
gw
arm
erth
anno
rmal
wea
ther
cond
ition
sth
roug
hout
the
coun
tryov
erth
ene
xtth
ree
mon
ths.
•Whi
leth
eU
SN
atio
nal
Oce
anic
and
Atm
osph
eric
Adm
inis
tratio
n(N
OA
A)is
proj
ectin
gab
ove
norm
alte
mpe
ratu
res
inw
este
rnan
dso
uthe
aste
rnU
Sst
ates
,as
wel
las
Ala
ska,
tem
pera
ture
sac
ross
cent
ralU
Sst
ates
are
antic
ipat
edto
fall
belo
wno
rmal
betw
een
June
and
Aug
ust.
•The
US
NO
AA’s
thre
em
onth
prec
ipita
tion
outlo
okin
dica
tes
belo
wav
erag
epr
ecip
itatio
nin
the
US
north
wes
t,an
dab
ove
aver
age
prec
ipita
tion
alon
gth
eG
ulf
Coa
stan
dno
rthce
ntra
lUS
regi
ons.
•Abo
veav
erag
ete
mpe
ratu
res
inth
eU
Sno
rthw
est,
com
bine
dw
ithde
crea
sed
hydr
oele
ctric
gene
ratio
nin
the
regi
on,w
illre
sult
inhi
gher
natu
ralg
asde
man
dfro
mth
eel
ectri
city
sect
or.
•The
figur
esbe
low
pres
ent
the
aver
age
popu
latio
n-w
eigh
ted
heat
ing
degr
eeda
ys,
and
resi
dent
iala
ndco
mm
erci
alga
sde
man
d(c
ombi
ned)
,in
both
Can
ada
and
the
US
,fro
mJu
neto
Aug
ust.
Can
ada
5-Ye
ar A
vera
geJu
neJu
lyA
ugus
tH
eatin
g D
egre
e D
ays
51.9
13.9
26.8
Res
iden
tial +
Com
mer
cial
C
onsu
mpt
ion
(BC
FPD
)1.
21.
00.
9
Uni
ted
Stat
es5-
Year
Ave
rage
June
July
Augu
stH
eatin
g D
egre
e D
ays
27.2
6.6
11.6
Res
iden
tial +
Com
mer
cial
C
onsu
mpt
ion
(BC
FPD
)9.
27.
97.
7
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 8
SOU
RCE
: S
tatis
tics
Cana
da.
SOU
RCE
: S
tatis
tics
Cana
da,
NEB
.
SOU
RCE
: E
IA.
SOU
RCE
: E
IA.
0246810121416
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09
Res
iden
tial
Com
mer
cial
Indu
stria
l & P
ower
Can
adia
n C
onsu
mpt
ion
By
Sec
tor
BC
FPD
010203040506070
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10
US
Tota
lLo
uisi
ana
GO
M F
eder
al W
ater
sTe
xas
US
Mar
keta
ble
Pro
duct
ion
BC
FPD
The
aver
age
US
mar
keta
ble
gas
prod
uctio
n in
Q1
2010
was
0.7
BC
FPD
hig
her t
han
in Q
1 20
09.
02468101214161820
Jan-
06Ju
n-06
Nov
-06
Apr
-07
Sep-
07Fe
b-08
Jul-0
8D
ec-0
8M
ay-0
9O
ct-0
9
E. C
oast
SKA
BB
C, Y
ukon
, NW
T
Can
adia
n M
arke
tabl
e P
rodu
ctio
n B
y P
rovi
nce
/Reg
ion
BC
FPD
020406080100
120
140 Ja
n-06
Jul-0
6Ja
n-07
Jul-0
7Ja
n-08
Jul-0
8Ja
n-09
Jul-0
9Ja
n-10
Res
iden
tial
Com
mer
cial
Elec
tric
Pow
erIn
dust
rial
BC
FPD
US
Con
sum
ptio
n B
y S
ecto
r
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 9
SOU
RCE
: S
tatis
tics
Cana
da,
NEB
.SO
URCE
: S
tatis
tics
Cana
da,
NEB
.
SOU
RCE
: S
tatis
tics
Cana
da,
NEB
.SO
URCE
: S
tatis
tics
Cana
da,
NEB
.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
2007
2008
2009
BC
, Yuk
on, N
WT
Ma
rket
able
Pro
duct
ion
BC
FPD
0246810121416
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
2007
2008
2009
AB
Mar
keta
ble
Pro
duct
ion
BC
FPD
0.0
0.5
1.0
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
2007
2008
2009
SK
Mar
keta
ble
Pro
duct
ion
BC
FPD
0.00
0.25
0.50
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
2007
2008
2009
Eas
t C
oast
Mar
keta
ble
Pro
duct
ion
BC
FPD
The
Sabl
e O
ffsho
re E
nerg
y Pr
ojec
t's s
ched
uled
20
day
outa
ge.
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 10
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI.
SOU
RCE:
N
EB.
SOU
RCE:
N
EB.
0246810121416
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
2008
2009
2010
BC
FPD
Sys
tem
Fie
ld R
ecei
pts
Tra
nsC
anad
a +
Wes
tcoa
st;
Mon
thly
Ave
rage
0246810121416
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0
Alli
ance
AB
-BC
McN
eil
Empr
ess
BC
FPD
Alb
erta
Sys
tem
Del
iver
ies
012345678910
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0
Hun
tingd
onEl
mor
eM
onch
yK
ings
gate
Can
adia
n G
as E
xpo
rts
to t
he U
SB
y E
xpor
t P
oint
-W
est
BC
FPD
012345678910
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0
Oth
ers
Nia
gara
Iroqu
ois
Emer
son
Can
adia
n G
as E
xpo
rts
to t
he U
SB
y E
xpor
t P
oint
-E
ast
BC
FPD
Year
-ove
r-ye
ar, p
ipel
ine
gas
expo
rts
thro
ugh
east
ern
Can
ada
have
dec
lined
by
15
perc
ent,
or 0
.6 B
CFP
D.
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 11
SOU
RCE:
N
EB.
SOU
RCE:
N
EB.
SOU
RCE
: N
EB,
EIA.
SOU
RCE:
N
EB.
02468101214
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0
Cal
iforn
iaPa
cific
NW
Nor
thea
stC
entr
al
US
Impo
rts
of C
anad
ian
Gas
By
US
Reg
ion
BC
FPD
Can
adia
n ex
port
s to
the
nort
heas
t US
have
dec
lined
by
24
perc
ent,
or 0
.7 B
CFP
D s
ince
Mar
ch 2
009.
02468101214
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0
Paci
fic N
WC
alifo
rnia
Cen
tral
Nor
thea
st
Ave
rage
Can
adia
n E
xpor
t P
rice
By
US
Reg
ion
C$/
GJ
02468101214 Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0
Mex
ico
Can
ada
Tot
al U
S P
ipel
ine
Gas
Im
port
s
BC
FPD
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0
Oth
erSt
. Cla
irSa
rnia
Cou
rtrig
ht
BC
FPD
Can
adia
n G
as I
mpo
rts
By
Impo
rt P
oint
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 12
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
BC
F, M
onth
End
Can
adia
n W
orki
ng G
as S
tora
ge
As
of M
ay 2
8, C
anad
ian
stor
age
was
op
erat
ing
at 5
6 pe
rcen
t of c
apac
ity.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0
East
Wes
t
Can
adia
n S
tora
ge b
y R
egio
nB
CF,
Mon
th E
nd
0
500
1,00
0
1,50
0
2,00
0
2,50
0
3,00
0
3,50
0
4,00
0
4,50
0
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
BC
F, M
onth
End
US
Low
er-4
8 W
orki
ng G
as S
tora
ge
0
500
1,00
0
1,50
0
2,00
0
2,50
0
3,00
0
3,50
0
4,00
0
4,50
0
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0
Prod
ucin
g R
egio
nW
est
East
BC
F, M
onth
End
US
Sto
rage
by
Reg
ion
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 13
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
-100-8
0
-60
-40
-20020406080
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
WC
_IJ_
WD
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
BC
F, M
onth
EndW
este
rn C
anad
a S
tora
ge
-80
-60
-40
-20020406080
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
Eas
tern
Can
adi
an S
tora
ge
BC
F, M
onth
End
-150
-100-5
0050100
150
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
Can
adia
n S
tora
ge
BC
F, M
onth
End
Nor
th A
mer
ican
Sto
rage
•As
ofM
ay28
,the
volu
me
ofw
orki
ngga
sin
Can
adia
nst
orag
eto
tale
d37
4.9
BC
F,18
perc
ent,
or57
BC
Fab
ove
the
five-
year
aver
age.
•Sin
ceA
pril,
the
surp
lus
inC
anad
ian
wor
king
gas
stor
age
over
the
prev
ious
year
has
decl
ined
by78
BC
F,to
12.6
BC
Fat
the
end
ofM
ay.
•Net
inje
ctio
nsof
natu
ralg
asin
toea
ster
nan
dw
este
rnC
anad
ian
stor
age
wer
e41
.8B
CF
and
35.9
BC
Fbe
low
regi
onal
stor
age
inje
ctio
nsm
ade
durin
gth
esa
me
perio
dla
stye
ar,r
espe
ctiv
ely.
•As
ofM
ay28
,w
orki
ngga
sin
US
unde
rgro
und
stor
age
tota
led
2,35
7B
CF,
15pe
rcen
t,or
314
BC
Fab
ove
the
five-
year
aver
age.
•Sto
rage
addi
tions
inth
epr
oduc
ing
regi
onan
dth
eea
ster
nco
nsum
ing
regi
onac
coun
ted
for8
2pe
rcen
toft
otal
inje
ctio
nsin
toU
Sun
derg
roun
dst
orag
ein
May
.•T
hene
tin
ject
ions
ofna
tura
lga
sin
toU
Sst
orag
edu
ring
the
mon
thof
May
wer
ene
arly
30pe
rcen
t,or
152
BC
Flo
wer
than
stor
age
inje
ctio
nsin
May
2009
,an
d10
perc
ent,
or41
BC
Fbe
low
the
five-
year
aver
age.
•The
larg
estr
egio
nald
evia
tion
from
obse
rved
stor
age
addi
tions
inth
epr
evio
usye
aroc
curr
edin
the
US
east
ern
cons
umin
gar
ea,w
here
abov
eno
rmal
tem
pera
ture
sw
ere
exhi
bite
ddu
ring
the
mon
thof
May
.•A
ccor
ding
toda
tafro
mth
eU
SN
OA
A,U
Spo
pula
tion-
wei
ghte
dco
olin
gde
gree
days
inM
ayex
ceed
edth
eno
rmby
appr
oxim
atel
y35
perc
ent.
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 14
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Pla
tts
Gas
Dai
ly.
-100-8
0
-60
-40
-20020406080100
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
US
Wes
tern
Con
sum
ing
Reg
ion
Sto
rage
BC
F, M
onth
End
-700
-500
-300
-10010
0
300
500
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
US
Eas
tern
Sto
rage
BC
F, M
onth
End
-250
-200
-150
-100-5
0050100
150
200
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
US
Pro
duci
ng R
egio
n S
tora
ge
BC
F, M
onth
End
-100
0
-800
-600
-400
-2000
200
400
600
800
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
US
Sto
rage
BC
F, M
onth
End
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 15
SOU
RCE
: U
.S.
DO
E.SO
URCE
: U
.S.
DO
E.
SOU
RCE
: U
.S.
DO
E.SO
URCE
: U
.S.
DO
E.
024681012141618202224
Apr
-09
Jun-
09A
ug-0
9O
ct-0
9D
ec-0
9Fe
b-10
Apr
-10
Cov
e Po
int
Elba
Isla
ndEv
eret
tN
E G
atew
ayN
eptu
ne
Eas
tern
US
LN
G I
mpo
rts
By
Faci
lity
BC
F
A to
tal o
f 18
spot
car
goes
wer
e pu
rcha
sed
in th
e fir
st fo
ur
mon
ths
of 2
010,
thre
e tim
es g
reat
er th
an th
e nu
mbe
r of
spot
car
goes
pur
chas
ed in
the
first
four
mon
ths
of 2
009.
Ea
ster
n U
S re
-gas
ifica
tion
term
inal
s re
ceiv
ed 8
3 pe
rcen
t of
tota
l spo
t car
goes
in 2
010.
024681012141618202224
Apr
-09
Jun-
09A
ug-0
9O
ct-0
9D
ec-0
9Fe
b-10
Apr
-10
Gul
f Gat
eway
Free
port
Lake
Cha
rles
Sabi
ne P
ass
Cam
eron
US
GO
M L
NG
Im
port
s B
y Fa
cilit
yB
CF
0510152025303540
Apr
-09
Jun-
09A
ug-0
9O
ct-0
9D
ec-0
9Fe
b-10
Apr
-10
Egyp
tN
iger
iaTr
inid
adN
orw
ayQ
atar
BC
F
US
LN
G I
mpo
rts
By
Ori
gin
Ove
r th
e la
st s
ix m
onth
s,
ship
men
ts fr
om Q
atar
hav
e ac
coun
ted
for 1
6 pe
rcen
t of
tota
l US
LNG
impo
rts.
02468101214
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
2008
2009
2010
Vol
ume-
Wei
ghte
d A
vera
ge L
NG
Pri
ceV
olum
e-W
eigh
ted
Ave
rage
LN
G P
rice
US$
/MM
Btu
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 16
SOU
RCE
: E
IA,
U.S
. D
OE.
SOU
RCE
: U
.S.
DO
E.
01234567
Apr
-09
Jun-
09A
ug-0
9O
ct-0
9D
ec-0
9Fe
b-10
Apr
-10
US
LN
G E
xpor
ts t
o Ja
pan
BC
F
01234567
Apr
-09
Jun-
09A
ug-0
9O
ct-0
9D
ec-0
9Fe
b-10
Apr
-10
Con
ocoP
hilli
psM
arat
hon
US
LN
G E
xpor
tsB
y E
xpo
rter
BC
F
SOU
RCE
: U
.S.
DO
E.SO
URCE
: U
.S.
DO
E.
LNG
Im
po
rte
rs in
20
10
U.S
. LN
G Im
port
ers
in 2
010
(As
of A
pril
30, 2
010)
Com
pany
Volu
me
(BC
F)%
of T
otal
LN
G Im
port
sB
G L
NG
Ser
vice
s48
.626
.8D
istr
igas
51.1
28.3
Exc
eler
ate
14.7
8.1
Stat
oil
25.9
14.3
BP
Ene
rgy
Com
pany
8.8
4.9
Tota
l Gas
& P
ower
20.2
11.2
Sem
pra
LNG
Mar
ketin
g4.
22.
3C
hevr
on U
.S.A
.4.
42.
4S
hell
NA
LNG
3.0
1.7
Tota
l18
0.9
100.
0
Can
adia
n LN
G Im
port
ers
in 2
010
(As
of M
arch
31,
201
0)
Com
pany
Volu
me
(BC
F)%
of T
otal
LN
G Im
port
sR
epso
l Ene
rgy
Can
ada
Ltd.
26.2
100
Tota
l26
.210
0
LNG
Shi
pper
s in
201
0 LN
G S
hipp
ers
to th
e U
.S. i
n 20
10 (A
s of
Apr
il 30
, 201
0)
Com
pany
Volu
me
(BC
F)%
of T
otal
LN
G
Ship
men
tsA
tlant
ic L
NG
2/3
Com
pany
5.3
2.9
Atla
ntic
LN
G C
ompa
ny18
.810
.4B
G9.
15.
0EL
NG
/BG
GM
26.2
14.5
Gas
Nat
ural
Apr
ovis
iona
mie
ntos
12.9
7.2
Atla
ntic
LN
G8.
84.
9N
iger
ia L
NG
Lim
ited
8.4
4.7
PFL
E2.
91.
6Tr
inlin
g8.
24.
5S
hell E
aste
rn L
NG
3.0
1.7
GD
F S
uez
14.1
7.8
Ras
Gas
LN
G4.
42.
4R
asG
as7.
03.
9Q
atar
Liq
uefie
d G
as C
ompa
ny L
imite
d (II
)13
.87.
6R
as L
affa
n2.
81.
5S
tato
il AS
A, R
WE
-Dea
Nor
ge A
S, H
ess
Nor
ge A
S5.
83.
2B
G G
as M
arke
ting
Ltd
3.0
1.7
Stat
oil A
SA17
.19.
4Ye
men
LN
G C
ompa
ny L
td.;
TOTA
L G
as &
P
ower
Ltd
.6.
33.
5To
tal G
as &
Pow
er L
imite
d2.
91.
6To
tal
180.
910
0.0
Relevant • Independent • Objective
PAGE 17
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
CAO
DC,
Bak
er H
ughe
s.SO
URCE
: C
ERI,
CAO
DC.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
CAO
DC.
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
CAO
DC.
0
500
1,00
0
1,50
0
2,00
0
2,50
0
3,00
0 Jan-
02Ja
n-03
Jan-
04Ja
n-05
Jan-
06Ja
n-07
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10
WC
SBU
S
Nor
th A
mer
ica
n A
ctiv
e R
igs
Rig
s
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,00
0 Jan-
02Ja
n-03
Jan-
04Ja
n-05
Jan-
06Ja
n-07
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10
Act
ive
Rig
sTo
tal R
ig D
rillin
g Fl
eet
Can
adia
n R
ig F
leet
Uti
lizat
ion
Wee
kly
Ave
rag
e A
ctiv
e R
igs
Rig
s
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
Jun-
08Se
p-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09Se
p-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
BC
AB
SK
WC
SB
Act
ive
Rig
s by
Pro
vinc
eW
eekl
y A
vera
ge
Rig
s
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
15
913
1721
2529
3337
4145
49
5-Ye
ar A
vg.
2009
2010
Wes
tern
Can
ada
Act
ive
Rig
sW
eekl
y A
vera
ge
Rig
s
Wee
k N
umbe
r
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
PAGE 18
SOU
RCE
: C
ERI,
Bak
er H
ughe
s.SO
URC
E:
CERI
, Ba
ker
Hug
hes.
SOU
RCE:
CE
RI,
Bake
r H
ughe
s.
0
500
1,00
0
1,50
0
2,00
0
2,50
0 Jan-
02Ja
n-03
Jan-
04Ja
n-05
Jan-
06Ja
n-07
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10
Ons
hore
Gas
-Dire
cted
GO
M G
as-D
irect
edTo
tal O
il-D
irect
ed
Rig
s
US
Tot
al A
ctiv
e R
igs
0 20
40
60
80
100
120
140 Ja
n-02
Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Jan-
05Ja
n-06
Jan-
07Ja
n-08
Jan-
09Ja
n-10
Oil-
Dir
ecte
dG
as-D
irect
ed
US
Gul
f of
Mex
ico
Act
ive
Rig
sR
igs
0%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,00
0
1,20
0
1,40
0
1,60
0
1,80
0
2,00
0
2,20
0 Jan-
02Ja
n-03
Jan-
04Ja
n-05
Jan-
06Ja
n-07
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10
Oil-
Dire
cted
Gas
-Dire
cted
Gas
-Dire
cted
%
US
Tot
al A
ctiv
e R
igs
Rig
s
Nor
th A
mer
ican
Rig
Act
ivit
y•A
sof
May
25,W
CSB
rigac
tivity
was
appr
oxim
atel
y14
perc
entb
elow
the
five-
year
aver
age.
•Yea
r-ove
r-yea
r,th
enu
mbe
rof
rigs
oper
atin
gin
the
WC
SBha
sin
crea
sed
by86
perc
entt
o13
0rig
s.•A
t127
perc
ent,
year
-ove
r-yea
rgro
wth
inSa
skat
chew
an’s
rigac
tivity
exce
eded
that
ofan
yot
herp
rovi
nce.
•InM
ay,t
hem
onth
lyav
erag
erig
utiliz
atio
nra
tew
as16
perc
ent,
upfro
m8
perc
enti
nM
ay20
09.
•Sas
katc
hew
anw
asth
eon
lypr
ovin
ceth
atin
crea
sed
drilli
ngac
tivity
durin
gth
em
onth
ofM
ay,w
ithth
eav
erag
enu
mbe
rof
rigs
oper
atin
gin
the
prov
ince
incr
easi
ngby
86pe
rcen
t,or
16rig
s,to
34rig
s.•M
onth
lyrig
activ
ityin
Albe
rtaan
dBr
itish
Col
umbi
ade
clin
edby
anav
erag
eof
6rig
san
d9
rigs,
resp
ectiv
ely.
•InM
ay,t
heav
erag
enu
mbe
rof
activ
erig
sin
the
US
tota
led
1,51
3rig
s,up
from
918
rigs
inth
epr
evio
usye
ar.
•Gas
-dire
cted
rigs
acco
unte
dfo
r63
perc
ento
fto
talr
igs
oper
atin
gin
the
US
durin
gM
ay.
•Yea
r-ove
r-yea
r,th
enu
mbe
rofa
ctiv
eoi
land
gas
rigs
incr
ease
dby
190
perc
ent(
354
rigs)
,and
33pe
rcen
t(23
7rig
s),r
espe
ctiv
ely.