may 1, 2018 | crystal city, virginia racial equity in ... · illinois3.8% arizona3.6% new...
TRANSCRIPT
Racial Equity in Degree Attainment and State Attainment Goals
May 1, 2018 | Crystal City, Virginia
© Copyright 2018 The Education Trust @EdTrust /edtrust edtrust www.edtrust.org
Andrew Nichols Senior Director of Higher Education Research and Data Analytics
Katie Berger Senior Policy Analyst for Higher Education
Session Overview
• About Ed Trust• State ratings on degree attainment among Black and Latino adults • Racial equity analysis of state attainment goals
Through our research and advocacy, The Education Trust supports work that:
Expands excellence and equity in education, from preschool through college;
Increases college access and completion, particularly for historically underserved students; and
Builds and engages diverse communities that care about education equity, and increases political and public will to act on equity issues.
State Higher Education Equity Work
• Rating states on attainment among Black and Latino adults and evaluating postsecondary attainment goals
• Evaluating state‐wide free college programs – 31 active and proposed programs in 26 States
• Rating states on access, affordability, and completion
• Evaluating state outcomes‐based funding models
• Holding workshops for advocates and stakeholders on postsecondary policy and equity
• Focus States: Tennessee, Illinois, Ohio
State Ratings on Degree Attainment Among Black and
Latino Adults
State Attainment Ratings for Black and Latino Adults – Framework AttainmentWhat percentage of Black and Latino adults hold a college degree?
• 25‐64 year olds; associate’s or higher; American Community Survey (ACS), 2014‐16
GrowthHow have those attainment rates changed from 2000 to 2016?
GapWhat is the difference between attainment rates of White adults and Black/Latino adults?
47% of White Adults and 31% of Black Adults Held an AA or Higher in 2016
12.2% 6.2%
31.2%25.3%
25.8%
21.4%
9.0%
10.0%
14.0%
23.7%
7.8% 13.4%
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
Black White
Figure 1: Black and White Degree Attainment, 2016
Less Than HS HS Grad / Equiv Some College Associate Bachelor Graduate
Gains in Degree Attainment for Black Adults Have Not Closed Gaps
2.6
3.62.9
9.1
2.2
4.4
2.8
9.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Associate Bachelor Graduate Total
Figure 2: Gains in Degree Attainment Since 2000
Black White
30.2%35.0%
30.7%27.0%
51.0% 51.4%
45.8%41.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Adults 25‐34 Adults 34‐44 Adults 44‐54 Adults 55‐64
Figure 3: Black and White Degree Attainment by Age, 2016
Black White
State Attainment – Black Adults
State Attainment Growth – Black Adults
State Attainment Gaps – Black Adults
47% of White Adults and 23% of Latino Adults Held an AA or Higher in 2016
30.8%
6.2%
28.4%
25.3%
18.3%
21.4%
6.6%
10.0%
11.0%
23.7%
5.0%13.4%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Latino White
Figure 1: Latino and White Degree Attainment, 2016
Less than HS HS Grad / equiv Some College, No Degree Associate Bachelor Gradaute
Gains in Degree Attainment for Latino Adults Have Not Been Enough to Close Persistent Gaps
24.5%22.4% 21.7% 20.3%
51.0% 51.4%
45.8%41.7%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64
Figure 3: Latino and White Degree Attainment by Age, 2016
Latino White
2.1
4
1.1
7.2
2.2
4.4
2.8
9.4
0
3
5
8
10
Associate Bachelor Gradaute Total
Figure 2: Gains in Degree Attainment Since 2000
Latino White
Attainment in Several States Account for Much of the National Attainment Gap
California 27.0%
Texas 18.6%
Florida 9.7%New York 6.9%
Illinois 3.8%
Arizona 3.6%
New Jersey 3.3%
Colorado 2.0%
New Mexico 1.7%
Georgia 1.6%
All other states21.7%
Figure 4: Latino Adult Population by State, 2016
State Attainment – Latino Adults
State Attainment Growth – Latino Adults
State Attainment Gaps – Latino Adults
Immigration Influences Latino Degree Attainment
14.6%
42.7%
29.8%
27.4%25.9%
12.7%9.1%
4.7%14.4%8.5%
6.3% 4.0%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Born in 50 states + DC Born outside 50 states + DC
Figure 9: Latino Degree Attainment by Birthplace, 2016
Less than HS HS Grad / equiv Some College, No Degree Associate Bachelor Gradaute
Latino Degree Attainment Varies by Ethnic Group
36.0%
17.4% 13.7%26.1%
28.8%
30.7%30.3%
26.2%
17.8%
22.2%16.1%
18.5%
5.5%
10.0%
10.2%
7.1%
8.7%12.9%
19.0%14.6%
3.2% 6.8% 10.7% 7.5%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Mexico Puerto Rico Cuba Other
Figure 10: Latino Degree Attainment by Origin, 2016
Less than HS HS Grad / equiv Some College, No Degree Associate Bachelor Gradaute
Sample Attainment Analysis Results ‐ Maryland
Black adults, 25‐64, 2016• Attainment rate: 36.9% (A, ranked 4th)
• Growth: 10.1 points since 2000 (A‐, ranked 5th)
• Gap: 16.7 points (average gap, ranked 26th)
• Rankings out of 41 states with usable data
Latino adults, 25‐64, 2016• Attainment rate: 26.5% (B+, ranked 8th)
• Growth: 0 points (F, ranked 42nd)
• Gap: 27 points (average gap, ranked 29th)
• Rankings out of 44 states with usable data
Grades are based on relative position compared to other states, rather than absolute cutscores
Racial Equity Analysis of State Attainment Goals
State Attainment Goals – National Context
• Obama – 60% of 25‐34 year olds with associate’s or above by 2020• Lumina – 60% of 25‐64 year olds with a high quality certificate or above by 2025
• As of 2016, 41.8% of adults held an associate’s or higher– 47% of White adults, 31% of Black adults and 23% of Latino adults
• ETS projections – The US will meet the Obama goal in 2041 and the Lumina goal in 2056. Black and Latino populations will not have met either goal by 2060, the last year projected.
State Attainment Goals – Racial Equity Ratings Framework Does the state have a degree attainment goal? (43/50)
Do the materials related to the goal mention race? (35/43)
Do materials related to the goal include data on gaps in enrollment, persistence, completion or attainment by race? (27/35)
Do the state’s attainment goal materials include a goal to improve outcomes for students of color and/or close racial equity gaps? (28/35)
Is the state’s goal to improve outcomes for students of color or close racial equity gaps supported by additional numerical targets, goals, benchmarks, and/or data analysis? (15/28)
Do the attainment goal materials identify strategies the state has used, is using, or will use to improve outcomes for students of color or close racial equity gaps? (25/35)
In order to be considered in our analysis, the state’s materials related to the attainment goal had to be publicly available online, explicitly tied to the attainment goal, and issued by an entity responsible for developing or pursuing the goal.
State Attainment Goals – Racial Equity Ratings Results • 7 states didn’t have a goal (incomplete) –CA, DE, MI, NE, NC, NY, WV
• 8 had a goal but didn’t mention race (F) ‐AL, AK, FL, ME, MS, NH, PA, VT
• 5 had a goal, mentioned race, but went no further (D) ‐ AZ, ID, LA, MT, NM
• 9 had a goal, mentioned race, and met 1‐2 additional criteria (C) ‐ CT, NJ, ND, OH, SC, SD, WA, WI, WY
• 6 had a goal, mentioned race, and met 3 additional criteria (B) ‐ GA, KY, MD, MO, NV, UT.
• 15 met all 6 criteria ‐ (A) AR, CO, HI, IA, IL, IN, KS, MA, MN, OK, OR, RI, TN, TX, VA
State Attainment Goals – Best Practices
• Set specific, separate attainment goals for racial subgroups • Use current attainment levels of the relevant subgroups as a baseline • Aim to increase the rates of attainment among underrepresented groups more rapidly than the overall population.
• Establish interim benchmarks for racial subgroups, track their progress over time, and hold institutions, educators, and others involved in achieving state attainment goals accountable
• Identify and pursue strategies aimed specifically at closing racial attainment gaps
Goals with Specific Racial Equity Goals – Minnesota
Goals with Specific Racial Equity Goals – Texas
State Attainment Goals – Goals that Miss the Mark
• States with the largest percentages of people of color that received a D or F, including FL, MS, AL, LA, NM, and AZ, while CA, NY, and NC have no goals
• The 20 states with no attainment goals or “D” or “F” grades represent nearly half (45.8 percent) of the Black population and over half (54.8 percent) of the Latino population nationwide
• Among states without a goal, “D” states, and “F” states are Mississippi and Alabama, where the Black population share is more than double the national average, and New Mexico and California, where the Latino population share is more than double the national average
State Attainment Goals and Attainment Rates
• In some states, the lack of focus on race in attainment goals correlates with the actual attainment rates of Black and Latino adults
• States with failing grades of “D” or “F” on their attainment goal that also failed with “D” or “F” grades on Latino attainment: AL, AZ, ID. All of these states, with the exception of AZ, failed on changes in attainment for Latino adults overtime.
• States with failing attainment goals and failing grades on Black attainment include AL, MS, LA, PA. Only LA failed on changes in Black attainment overtime and for their current Black attainment rate.
• States w/o an attainment goal that failed on attainment for Latinos include CA, NE, NC. MI and WV have not set attainment goals and also failed on attainment for Black students.
State Attainment Goals ‐ Recommendations
• Push states without attainment goals, especially those where Black and Latino students are concentrated and those with the largest gaps in outcomes, to adopt an equity‐focused attainment goal
• Challenge states with goals that don’t sufficiently address racial equity to incorporate a more explicit focus on race
• Set specific goals to close racial gaps and increase degree attainment among people of color
• Support those subgoals with additional benchmarks, targets or analysis
• Identify strategies to advance those goals
• Hold leaders in “A” and “B” states accountable for achieving their goals
Andrew Nichols, Ph.D.Senior Director of Higher Education Research and Data Analytics
[email protected] // @DrAndrewNichols
Katie BergerSenior Policy Analyst for Higher Education [email protected] //@katielberger
Thank You!